Wednesday, April1, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Port Hope, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 7:53PM Wednesday April 1, 2020 5:16 PM EDT (21:16 UTC) Moonrise 11:14AMMoonset 2:16AM Illumination 64% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ363 Expires:202004020815;;419063 Fzus63 Kdtx 011949 Glflh Open Lake Forecast For Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/pontiac Mi 349 Pm Edt Wed Apr 1 2020 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Off Shore On Lake Huron Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum.
Synopsis..An elongated ridge of high pressure 30.20 inches from canada down to the gulf will remain in control over the great lakes through Saturday before a weak cold front moves through Saturday evening followed by high pressure again. Lhz361>363-020815- lake huron from 5nm east of mackinac bridge to presque isle lt beyond 5 nm off shore- lake huron from presque isle light to sturgeon point mi beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from sturgeon point to alabaster mi beyond 5nm off shore- 349 pm edt Wed apr 1 2020
Tonight..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots early in the evening becoming light and variable...then becoming north 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots until late afternoon becoming light and variable. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..Light and variable winds. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots backing to the north late in the afternoon. A chance of rain. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..North winds 5 to 10 knots backing to the west in the late evening and early morning. A chance of rain early in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..West winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the east until early morning. A chance of rain. Waves 2 feet or less.
LHZ363


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Hope, MI
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location: 44.5, -82.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 011932 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 332 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2020

DISCUSSION.

Persistence forecast was again in play through the morning and early afternoon hours marked by a healthy amount of low stratus & stratocumulus as low-level northerly flow continued to wick moisture from Lake Huron For this afternoon and evening. Modest amount of potential instability/low level lapse rates around 6.0 C per km will support the chance for sparse rain showers, mainly across the Metro area. Any shower development will remain light in nature and will dwindle post-sunset as low-level flow backs to the northwest, cutting off the Lake Huron connection, all while diurnal heating comes to an end. Northerly ribbon of dry Canadian air will also aid in scouring out cloud cover this evening and overnight and will support overnight lows dropping into low 30s.

A closed low system will meander over Alberta during the midweek period with multiple pieces of energy ejecting out of the Pacific northwest, enhancing troughing across the western U.S. and amplifying an upper-level ridge downstream. This upper-level ridge will first amplify across the Midwest and will gradually build in across the Great Lakes through the end of the week. Broad scale subsidence associated with this ridge of higher pressure will result in an extended period of sunshine for both Thursday and Friday while modest waa allows temperatures to climb through the end of the week. A sheared PV wave will then eject from the Pacific Northwest which will dampen the aforementioned ridging late Saturday into Sunday with rain shower chances setting up across the state as a stalled frontal boundary and secondary shortwave travels across the state.

Quasi-zonal flow pattern and little modification to inherited airmass will allow temperatures to remain slightly above average for early April standards with highs holding in the mid to upper 50s Thursday into Saturday. Given the extended periods of sunshine and support from MOS data, making a run into 60s is not out of the question, especially by Saturday. High confidence to see above normal temperatures through the midweek period next week. GFS MOS and GEFS data is the most aggressive with warming as latest GFS has h850 values peaking to 12C. If this holds true, supporting surface temperatures would reach well into the mid to upper 60s. GEM and ECMWF data are more modest with the warm-up but still support highs in the low to mid-60s. Otherwise, Gulf moisture will come with the warm up and will bring the chance for rain and some even some rumbles of thunder next week.

MARINE. High pressure will maintain a light northerly component flow through Friday before winds begin to veer to the south Friday night and Saturday while remaining light. A Cold front pushing through Saturday evening will bring winds back to the north. All in all, the surface gradient will maintain basically light winds into next week.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 149 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2020

AVIATION .

Low clouds continues under light northerly flow this afternoon. Drier Canadian airmass moving into the area will help bring an end to this lingering low level moisture that has been largely supported through Great Lakes contribution. Expect MVFR CIGS to gradually lift by around 00Z with additional clearing overnight. Winds back more towards the NW into this evening and remain less than 10 knots.

For DTW . Low clouds below 5,000 feet will hold across the terminal into this evening with gradual clearing tonight.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* High for ceiling 5000 ft or less through this afternoon, low tonight.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

DISCUSSION . AM MARINE . DRC AVIATION . AA

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KP58 41 mi26 min Calm 44°F 1016.9 hPa32°F
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 48 mi83 min N 8.9 G 9.9
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 61 mi37 min ESE 5.1 G 7 44°F 1016.6 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Hope, MI41 mi26 minN 0 mi44°F32°F63%1016.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KP58

Wind History from P58 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN8NE13--NE13NE13NE13NE12NE11NE11NE9NE7NE10NE9NE8NW4N3N6N10N7N3N4NW6NW5Calm
1 day agoNW7NW10NW10
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2 days agoSW12
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NW9NW9NW10NW8NW9NW8NW6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.