Thursday, July18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Hope, MI

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Sunrise 5:54AMSunset 9:05PM Thursday July 18, 2019 2:03 PM EDT (18:03 UTC) Moonrise 9:31PMMoonset 6:30AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ363 Expires:201907182015;;252733 Fzus63 Kdtx 181350 Glflh Open Lake Forecast For Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/pontiac Mi 950 Am Edt Thu Jul 18 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Off Shore On Lake Huron Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum.
Synopsis..A warm front, 29.80 inches, will from west to east across lower michigan this afternoon and evening before stalling over lake huron tonight. A cold front is then forecast to move across upper michigan on Friday before slowly pushing south across lake huron Saturday, then into the ohio valley on Sunday. High pressure is then forecast to expand across the great lakes early next week. Lhz362-363-182015- lake huron from presque isle light to sturgeon point mi beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from sturgeon point to alabaster mi beyond 5nm off shore- 950 am edt Thu jul 18 2019
Rest of today..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet late in the afternoon.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Friday..South winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots early in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late evening and early morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
LHZ363


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Hope, MI
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location: 44.5, -82.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 181721
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
121 pm edt Thu jul 18 2019

Aviation
Gradually decaying MCS will continue to move east southeastward
through the remainder of the afternoon hours, with a thick cirrus
canopy shield out ahead of it. There continues to remain some
question as to how far east this complex will survive, especially
given continued destabilization of atmosphere and increasing moisture
advection from the south. Will continue to carry vcts mention into
the late afternoon hours for all the TAF sites except kmbs, and
based on radar trends and storms moving into more favorable
thermodynamic conditions, will add a tempo group from 19z-22z at the
southern terminals for expected continued southeastward progression
of reinvigorated thunder along a prevailing warm front boundary. In
the wake of this activity this evening, there should be a lull early
overnight, although lingering instability and continued moisture
advection ahead of a shortwave ejecting out of the upper midwest may
allow for another MCS to develop, with early indications that it will
possibly impact kmbs and kfnt in the 06z-12z. Outside of overnight
thunder potential, moist airmass will support likely MVFR haze
developing towards sunrise. Southwest wind 8-12 knots will persist
through tonight, increasing closer to 15 knots during the day Friday.

For dtw... Confidence continues to remain on the low end regarding
thunder potential this afternoon, with the best potential centered
19z-22z. Possible additional overnight MCS activity currently
expected to remain north of the terminal will need to bear watching
heading into Friday morning.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* moderate in ceilings at or below 5000 ft this afternoon and
evening. Low remainder of period.

* low in thunderstorm potential 20z-00z. Low again after 09z Friday.

Prev discussion
Issued at 349 am edt Thu jul 18 2019
discussion...

the short story is that a strong subtropical ridge will build
eastward into the great lakes through the day bringing several days
of very hot and humid weather with multiple rounds of convection
possible. Temperatures will rise into the 90s with dewpoints
increasing into the 70s resulting in heat indices ranging from 95 to
110f which has necessitated the issuance of heat warnings and
advisories across SE mi which will begin today at noon and run
through Saturday evening.

The long story is not as clear cut. The high confidence players in
the forecast begin with the strong subtropical ridge which has
consistently been advertised to build to around 590dam at 500mb
Friday and Saturday. A warm front will lift through this
afternoon evening which will usher in a warm and moist airmass which
again has consistently shown 850mb temps hovering around 23c and
dewpoints climbing into the mid 70s. This alone will produce the
elevated heat indices mentioned above. The late arrival of the warm
front today will limit heat indices today to maxes around 100f which
are just touching advisory criteria. The high dewpoints will limit
nocturnal relief keeping to muggy conditions around and priming each
new day leading to increased heat humidity on Friday into Saturday
with heat indices across a portion of SE mi, roughly along and south
of the i69 corridor, reaching 105-110f which is warning criteria.

As is typical with this summer pattern, nocturnal development of
mcs's complicate the forecast on several levels. First with pop wx
trends, second with cloud cover, and third with how each of the
preceding will effect the temperatures and heat indices (hence the
headlines). The first MCS has begun to develop across northern ia
and model consensus tracks this complex east toward lake mi and
turns it southeastward. Question still remains as to how it will
hold together as it nears SE mi with most cams dissipating the
system as it reaches us. Timing of this system would bring it into
se mi beginning around 16-18z with it exiting around 22z. Whether it
holds together or starts dying, it could get a boost from the
diurnal cycle helping it to keep going. Therefore will keep a chance
of thunderstorms in the forecast to account for this. MLCAPE will
reach 1500-2000 j kg in advance of this MCS with shear increasing to
30-40 knots so strong to severe storms will be possible. Pwats
increasing to around 2 inches will again bring about concerns for
heavy rainfall and potential flooding, especially considering the
possibility of multiple rounds of storms in the coming days.

A frontal boundary will then stall across mid mi keeping the hot
unstable airmass across southern mi overnight through early
Saturday. Several additional midlevel wave and convectively induced
waves are then forecast to track along this boundary Thursday night
through Saturday. This will keep chances of storms in the forecast
although a cap building northward across the area Friday will try to
keep the bulk of the activity across central northern mi but with so
many waves and outflow boundaries to help spark convection it's hard
to write it off all together. The front, likely cloud cover and
higher potential for storms is what led to slightly less oppressive
conditions across the saginaw valley and northern thumb, thus we
went with a heat advisory vs the warning for them.

The stalled front will finally get forced southward Saturday with a
stronger cold front Saturday passing southward Saturday evening.

This will allow the heat headlines to come to an end. Northerly flow
behind the fronts will push the hot and humid airmass south bringing
a drier airmass with dewpoints in the 60s by Sunday and 50s to start
the new week. Temperatures should be back to around normal in the
low 80s. High pressure should produce a few dry days to start the
week before the next trough approaches mid week.

Marine...

winds on the lakes will veer to the south-southwest today as high
pressure exits to the east of the region. A warm front will advance
from west to east across the lakes late this afternoon into tonight.

This front will bring an influx of humid and unstable air to the
region and will provide a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms.

The south-southwest gradient will strengthen during the day on
Friday. Strong over-lake stability will likely keep wind
speeds gusts below 15 knots, with perhaps a little stronger gusts
over the warmer nearshore waters. The chance for strong to severe
storms will persist into the day Friday, especially across lake
huron. A cold front will sink south across lake huron on Saturday,
with post frontal northwest winds occuring in its wake. The front is
forecast to continue to advance southward late Saturday and Saturday
night, arriving into the northern ohio valley by Sunday morning.

This front will be the focus for additional rounds of strong to
severe thunderstorms.

Hydrology...

an influx of hot, humid and very unstable air will arrive into
southern michigan today with the arrival of a warm front and will
persist across the area into Saturday before a cold front sweeps
across the area late Saturday Saturday night. This airmass, combined
with multiple fronts outflow boundaries is likely to support rounds
of thunderstorms over the next three days. Although there remains a
good degree of uncertainty with respect to timing of the convection,
the most probable time periods for thunderstorms appear to be from
this afternoon into Friday morning and again Saturday and Saturday
night. Due to the very high atmospheric moisture content, torrential
rainfall will be associated with any thunderstorm that develops. The
likelihood of brief but intense rainfall rates suggests a threat for
localized flooding over the next three days, with total rainfall
amounts in excess of two inches possible in regions that experience
more frequent and or longer duration thunderstorm activity.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Heat advisory until 8 pm edt Saturday for miz047>049-053>055.

Excessive heat warning until 8 pm edt Saturday for miz060>063-
068>070-075-076-082-083.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Irl
discussion... Drk
marine... ... .Sc
hydrology... .Sc
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45008 - S HURON 43NM East of Oscoda, MI 16 mi34 min SSE 12 G 14 67°F 64°F1011.8 hPa66°F
KP58 41 mi73 min 6 87°F 1010.3 hPa71°F
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 48 mi46 min SSE 13 G 16 71°F 70°F1012.2 hPa68°F
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 61 mi84 min S 1.9 G 5.1 80°F 1011.5 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Hope, MI41 mi73 minVar 6 mi87°F71°F59%1010.3 hPa

Wind History from P58 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr43N5N6N5NE63N3NE4CalmCalmCalmE3SE3CalmCalmSW3Calm33S346SW8
1 day agoW8
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SW755SW4SW4SW5SW6NW3CalmNE4N6N7Calm4CalmN5Calm3--N4
2 days agoCalmE3SE7SE46456SW6SW34SW666SW6SW7W54SW7W9
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.