Wednesday, October16, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Hope, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:38AMSunset 6:39PM Wednesday October 16, 2019 8:39 AM EDT (12:39 UTC) Moonrise 7:31PMMoonset 9:20AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ363 Expires:201910162015;;782668 Fzus63 Kdtx 160756 Glflh Open Lake Forecast For Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/pontiac Mi 356 Am Edt Wed Oct 16 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Off Shore On Lake Huron Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum.
Synopsis..A strong low pressure system, centered over central lake huron this morning will lift northeast throughout the day, eventually settling into ontario tonight. Strong northwest winds in the wake of this system will bring a period of gales late today through tonight over much of lake huron. This low will reorganize over the east coast Thursday. This will leave the central great lakes within a cold northwest flow during this time. Lhz362-363-162015- lake huron from presque isle light to sturgeon point mi beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from sturgeon point to alabaster mi beyond 5nm off shore- 356 am edt Wed oct 16 2019
.gale warning in effect from 2 pm edt this afternoon through Thursday afternoon...
Today..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots in the late morning and early afternoon...then becoming northwest 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 35 knot gales late in the afternoon. Scattered showers in the morning...then showers likely in the afternoon. Waves 5 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds to 30 knots increasing to 35 knot gales late in the evening...then decreasing to 30 knots after midnight. Gusts to 40 knot gales. Showers in the evening...then a chance of showers after midnight. Waves 10 to 14 feet. Waves occasionally around 18 feet.
Thursday..Northwest winds to 30 knots decreasing to 20 to 25 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Gusts to 35 knot gales. A chance of showers in the morning. Waves 10 to 14 feet. Waves occasionally around 18 feet.
Thursday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Waves 8 to 12 feet subsiding to 5 to 7 feet after midnight. Waves occasionally around 15 feet.
Friday..North winds 5 to 10 knots in the morning becoming light and variable...then becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon becoming south 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots until early evening...then becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and early morning. A chance of early in the morning. A chance of showers. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Sunday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots backing to the southeast in the late evening and early morning. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
LHZ363


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Hope, MI
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location: 44.5, -82.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 161010
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
610 am edt Wed oct 16 2019

Aviation
A cold cyclonic flow will govern conditions through this TAF period,
as the area remains within the influence of strong low pressure over
lake huron. This will ensure extensive stratus holds firm, while a
scattered coverage of showers develops particularly during the
afternoon and evening hours. Conditions largely held within MVFR,
although any brief heavier showers may result in some intermittent
reduction into ifr. A modestly gusty early day west-southwest wind
will strengthen while gradually veering to west-northwest during the
afternoon and evening hours as a secondary cold front lifts through.

Peak gusts in excess of 25 knots expected during this time.

For dtw... Low stratus holds firm throughout the period. Winds remain
gusty from the west 260-270 degrees during the day, increasing in
magnitude from mid afternoon onward. Potential for gusts to near
cross wind thresholds during this time. Slight veering of winds more
toward the northwest 290-300 degrees during the evening will
maintain cross wind concerns.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings AOB 5 kft through Wednesday night
* low for westerly wind gusts reaching cross-wind thresholds this
afternoon. Medium this evening as winds veer slightly to northwest
290-300 degrees .

Prev discussion
Issued at 415 am edt Wed oct 16 2019
discussion...

strong upper low readily apparent in water vapor imagery is moving
into west michigan at press time. The surface reflection is
elongated eastward into northern lake huron, while the associated
cold front is just exiting eastward out the CWA with remaining
showers following close behind. Some uptick in precip coverage has
been noted as better mid and upper level ascent catches up to the
low-level frontal surface, a trend that will continue as the front
continues into southern ontario. Expect a mostly dry but breezy
morning within post-frontal subsidence and modest cold advection.

Westerly winds on the order of 20 mph look good based on latest
guidance and upstream obs.

The low will deepen slightly as it inches toward georgian bay over
the course of the day while deep cyclonic flow takes residence over
the region. Deformation forcing on the back side of the system will
be sufficient to generate scattered light showers during the
afternoon and evening hours today with westerly flow assisting with
some lake enhancement. Abundant low-level moisture will limit mixing
depths today but with the momentum field of the deepening low in
place, still expect a breezy day as winds gust upwards of 30 to 35
mph by this afternoon. Overcast skies and highs only around 50
degrees today will enhance the blustery feel. A secondary cold front
is set to move through this afternoon and bring a reinforcing shot
of cold air advection from the northwest that will keep gusts
elevated well into tonight. Shower chances decrease through the
night as the upper low continues eastward. Continued cloud cover and
turbulent mixing of the surface layer should prevent lows from
falling past about 40 degrees.

Broad cyclonic flow regime remains in place through much of
Thursday, but lack of any meaningful ascent will keep the area dry.

Expect abundant low stratus to remain in place however as midlevel
heights rebound and low level moisture is trapped beneath a
strengthening inversion. A breezy early afternoon is in store as the
northwest gradient holds on a bit longer before the low makes it to
new england by Thursday evening. Little change in the resident air
mass locally and diffuse insolation will result in high temps
similar to today's - in the lower 50s. An upper ridge will move into
the midwest by Thursday night and confluent flow on its eastern
flank will allow surface high pressure to begin to develop over the
western great lakes. This should be effective in gradually reducing
cloud cover and wind speeds. Question at this point is on the degree
of frost formation by Friday morning as lows look to fall back into
the mid 30s. Have kept mention of frost out of the forecast for now
with low confidence in the degree of clearing overnight as the high
is slow to build this far east.

High amplitude ridging will keep the the late week and early weekend
tranquil and dry. 850 mb temps rebound to the positive single digits
which translates to highs in the lower 60s by Saturday. Next chance
for precip comes late Saturday as a wave moves overhead and some
guidance, the euro in particular, generate showers in the difluent
flow ahead of it. It's possible pops are a bit high at this point
considering the strength of the ridge in place. Mild conditions look
to hold until Tuesday when a mature midlatitude cyclone pushes a
strong cold front through the region.

Marine...

a strong low pressure system anchored over central lake huron today
will gradually exit toward the northeast tonight. This process will
draw colder air into the region on increasing northwest winds,
particularly from this afternoon into tonight. This will lead to an
extended period of gales lasting through Thursday over much of lake
huron. Gusts across the central basin of lake huron will approach 40
knots at time during the peak early tonight. These winds will bring
high wave action, likely reaching over 12 feet at times across much
of the open waters. Small craft conditions will exist for the
remainder of the region. The eastward exit of this system will bring
improving conditions Thursday night, with modest winds and waves
lasting through Friday as high pressure enters the region.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Lakeshore flood advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 2 pm edt
Thursday for miz049-054.

Lake huron... Gale warning from 2 pm this afternoon to 4 pm edt Thursday for
lhz362-363-421-441>443-462>464.

Small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 4 pm edt Thursday
for lhz422.

Gale warning from 2 pm this afternoon to 10 pm edt this evening for
lhz361.

Lake st clair... Small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 4 pm edt Thursday
for lcz460.

Michigan waters of lake erie... Small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 4 pm edt Thursday
for lez444.

Aviation... ..Mr
discussion... Tf
marine... ... .Mr
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45008 - S HURON 43NM East of Oscoda, MI 16 mi40 min WSW 21 G 27 51°F 55°F999.1 hPa47°F
KP58 41 mi49 min W 8 47°F 999.5 hPa42°F
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 48 mi52 min W 7 G 9.9 47°F 47°F1000.6 hPa43°F
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 61 mi60 min WSW 5.1 G 11 46°F 1000.7 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Hope, MI41 mi49 minW 8 mi47°F42°F83%999.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KP58

Wind History from P58 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmS4S7S65SE16SE10SE11SE8S6SE6SE16SE19
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SW4CalmSW4SW43SW4SW5SW5SW4SW4SW5SW4SW4SW4
2 days ago555544
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SW6SW343SW6SW4SW5SW4SW3SW4SW4SW5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.