Saturday, August24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Hope, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 8:16PM Saturday August 24, 2019 8:07 AM EDT (12:07 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 2:40PM Illumination 35% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ363 Expires:201908242015;;122815 Fzus63 Kdtx 240755 Glflh Open Lake Forecast For Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/pontiac Mi 355 Am Edt Sat Aug 24 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Off Shore On Lake Huron Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum.
Synopsis..A broad canadian high pressure system, at 30.30 inches, centered over the northern great lakes will drift eastward into western quebec today before eventually reaching the canadian maritimes on Sunday. The next trough will approach the western great lakes on Monday. Lhz362-363-242015- lake huron from presque isle light to sturgeon point mi beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from sturgeon point to alabaster mi beyond 5nm off shore- 355 am edt Sat aug 24 2019
Today..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the late evening and overnight.
Sunday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet after midnight.
Monday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Gusts to 30 knots late in the afternoon. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Tuesday..South winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots until early morning. Showers likely early in the morning. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers until early evening. Waves 5 to 7 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the late evening and early morning. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
LHZ363


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Hope, MI
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location: 44.5, -82.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 241013
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
613 am edt Sat aug 24 2019

Aviation
High pressure centered over northern michigan will produceVFR
conditions through the TAF period. The main concern is some lowVFR
stratus advecting off lake huron. Early morning observations show
3500-5000ft CIGS with this stratus. Diurnal mixing will raise cloud
bases to 5-6kft this afternoon with mainly a scattered coverage.

Will watch for any overachieving plumes working toward the sites
which may require a brief bkn period. Best chance of this would be
at mbs with the channeling down the bay.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* none.

Prev discussion
Issued at 358 am edt Sat aug 24 2019
discussion...

a broad region of surface high pressure is centered from quebec into
the central great lakes supplying SE michigan with nearly perfect
late summer weather for the weekend. Temperatures remain on the cool
side of normal with low humidity as exhibited by morning readings in
the upper 40s from the typically sheltered locations around the
region. A steady northeast breeze then maintains the cool and dry
air mass as the center of high pressure remains to our north. The
combination of low level thermal troughing and onshore wind limits
high temperatures to the upper 60s across the thumb while daytime
heating helps lift inland readings mostly into the lower and mid
70s. Early morning high based stratocu from over the warm water of
lake huron supports hi-res models that suggest a generous scattered
coverage of fair weather cumulus over land areas with daytime
surface heating through the afternoon and then dissipating during
the evening. This leads to another clear and cool night although
with a few less readings in the upper 40s by sunrise Sunday.

The center of cooler and less humid air shifts eastward Sunday as
high pressure migrates toward the new england states. The system
still maintains mostly sunny sky across SE michigan with light se
wind both helping high temperatures modify to around 80 Sunday
afternoon. Sunday night then starts a transition toward influence of
upstream low pressure systems the first of which being the current
central rockies wave trough as it moves into the plains and midwest.

This upper level feature interacts with the moisture laden surface
front stalled near the gulf coast. At the same time, a powerful
pacific upper jet produces strong cyclogenesis over central canada
with the result of both contributing to strong moisture transport
back into the central great lakes during Monday and Monday night.

Model soundings continue to advertise pw rising to around 1.8 inches
as 700 mb dewpoint is lifted to around 5c in a strong surge of gulf
moisture capable of scattered to numerous showers in lower michigan
Monday night into early Tuesday. Nocturnal elevated instability is
modest but still supportive of ordinary thunderstorm potential. The
strong cold front associated with the central canadian low pressure
system is timed to move through lower michigan Tuesday afternoon but
with plenty of question marks still there regarding instability. The
front itself appears strong enough to force stronger convection even
if recovery of instability is slow after early day rain and clouds.

The front is then projected to clear eastward by Tuesday night
leaving cooler and less humid air in place for mid week.

Marine...

fairly quiet conditions across the waters as high pressure remains
over the northern great lakes to start the weekend. This high will
slowly drift eastward through quebec tonight reaching the canadian
maritime Sunday. This will cause winds to veer from northeasterly
today to southeasterly Sunday all while staying primarily below 15
knots. Southeast flow will continue into Monday as the next trough
approaches from the west but speeds will be on the rise as the
pressure gradient tightens. Expect winds of 15 to 20 knots with
gusts of 25 to 30 knots possible Monday with increasing chances of
showers and thunderstorms Monday night and Tuesday.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Drk
discussion... Bt
marine... ... .Drk
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45008 - S HURON 43NM East of Oscoda, MI 16 mi38 min ENE 12 G 14 65°F 68°F1027.3 hPa53°F
KP58 41 mi77 min NE 12 65°F 1026 hPa51°F
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 48 mi50 min E 12 G 14 64°F 70°F1027 hPa52°F
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 61 mi28 min N 6 G 8 56°F 1027.4 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Hope, MI41 mi77 minNE 12 mi65°F51°F61%1026 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KP58

Wind History from P58 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE11NE10N11N12N11
G15
N8N9N11NE11N8NE10N7N8NE11NE11NE12NE11NE10NE9NE13NE14NE9NE12NE9
1 day ago------6NW754CalmN7N76335N736N8N753CalmW3Calm
2 days agoCalmCalm6NW8SW9W8
G16
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W6NW4SW9N14--------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.