Monday, January20, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Port Hope, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:52AMSunset 5:17PM Monday January 20, 2020 7:34 AM EST (12:34 UTC) Moonrise 4:08AMMoonset 1:48PM Illumination 22% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ363 Lake Huron From Sturgeon Point To Alabaster Mi Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Port Austin To Harbor Beach Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Harbor Beach To Port Sanilac Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Port Sanilac To Port Huron Beyond 5nm Off Shore- 336 Am Est Mon Jan 20 2020
Today..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Scattered snow showers early in the morning. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Tonight..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Tuesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots late in the evening. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots until early morning. A chance of rain early in the morning. A chance of rain and snow until early morning. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet until early morning. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Friday..East winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots until early morning. A chance of rain and snow...then rain and snow likely after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less building to 2 to 4 feet in the late evening and early morning.
LHZ363 Expires:202001202115;;230180 FZUS63 KDTX 200836 GLFLH Open Lake Forecast for Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 336 AM EST Mon Jan 20 2020 For waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on Lake Huron Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure, 30.80 inches, will move from the northern Plains tonight to the mid Mississippi Valley by Tuesday morning at 30.70 inches. The high will then drift across the Ohio Valley on Tuesday before moving to the Mid Atlantic by Wednesday. LHZ363-462>464-202115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Hope, MI
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location: 44.5, -82.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 201058 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 558 AM EST Mon Jan 20 2020

AVIATION.

A quieter stretch of weather continues this morning yielding favorable conditions for aviators as high pressure expands further into the Great Lakes today. Composite GOES-E imagery has shown an increase in high cloud coverage (bases above 20 kft) over most of the terminals, but no low or mid clouds are present at this time. The possibility exists for a broken MVFR deck to spread into the northwestern terminals this evening from low-level moisture spilling eastward off the western lakes. Have highlighted this possibility at mbS/FNT, but if moisture quality ends up being weaker, an AMD down to FEW/SCT may be warranted with the 18Z update.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* Low for ceilings below 5000 ft Monday night.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 307 AM EST Mon Jan 20 2020

DISCUSSION .

At the surface, a large area of arctic high pressure will settle southeast across the eastern half of the CONUS in the early/mid week period. The center of this high pressure will build from the upper Missouri Valley today to the Ohio Valley/Appalachia by Wednesday morning. This will provide dry conditions for the area over the next 3 to 4 days with the exception of lingering lake effect snow showers or flurries over the eastern Thumb region early this morning. While light, powdery accumulations (perhaps on order of an additional inch or two locally) will likely occur along the shoreline early in the morning (particularly over parts of Huron county), a steady shift to the east out over the lake will ensue around dawn as drier arctic air continues to spread east into the central Great Lakes.

This air mass will provide a chilly start to the week as the core of cold air associated with this high shifts over the region. Maximum temperatures will range in the 20s once again today after a cold start to the day in the single digits to lower teens in most areas. Similar conditions will persist on Tuesday with temperatures just a few degrees milder as the arctic air mass slowly moderates over the course of the next day or two. Continued moderation can be expected Wednesday into Thursday as return south to southwest flow impacts the area as this high continues its trek to the southeast of the region. Temperatures will edge back into the 30s Wednesday and then climb well into the 30s to around 40 in some locations by Thursday.

Meanwhile, the upper pattern will be in a sort of flux over the next several days. A high amplitude ridge over western NOAM will force the next significant shortwave from Canada to dig sharply SSE early in the week. Its track will take it from the northern plains and upper midwest down the Mississippi Valley to northern Florida up into the Carolinas by late Tuesday. This track will bypass the region entire today into tonight (ensuring the dry weather noted above).

In the wake of this system, a quasi-zonal flow setups up briefly as jet energy from the central/northern Pacific breaks down the western ridging temporarily as it comes onshore over British Columbia and the Pacific northwest. The ridging then becomes re-established as this shortwave energy digs into the central plains and carves out an upper low pressure system. This upper low nearly becomes cutoff from the northern stream flow over Canada, but maintains just enough connection as additional weaker shortwave energy rounds the western ridge and digs in behind the main system to help keep it lumbering east across the CONUS. A notable sub-tropical jet in excess of 100 knots also helps push this system along late this week into the weekend.

Precipitation chances will increase late Thursday on into Saturday as this system passes just south of the area and mean northern stream upper troughing shifts into the region. With only a limited amount of cold air tapped from Canada, precipitation will fall as a mix of rain/snow during this period as temperatures oscillate thru the 30s during the diurnal cycle. Based on model consensus in the track of this system, modest precipitation amounts look plausible with this system, especially in the Friday night to Saturday time frame as the upper low passes to the south and some degree of deformation sets up in the vicinity.

The ECMWF remains alone in a track well south of the region, but its relative performance this winter does lend this solution some credence. Basically, the closer this upper low is to the area, the more widespread notable precipitation will be. More importantly, given the marginal nature of cold air associated with the low, the closer the upper level feature (and its cold core) to the Great Lakes, the better chance of precipitation falling as all wet snow at times. A track further south, as the ECMWF suggests, would remove both of these "elements" to a large degree.

MARINE .

Post frontal north-northeast winds will continue to gust around 25 knots during the course of the night. Winds will decrease slightly on Monday as the gradient relaxes. Strong high pressure extending across the Ohio Valley during the first half of the week will sustain a decent gradient across Lake Huron. This will support wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots through at least Wednesday, while wind slowly back from northwest Monday to southwest by Wednesday.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LHZ421-441- 442.

Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . KK DISCUSSION . DG MARINE . DG

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KP58 41 mi43 min NW 12 G 18 23°F 1032 hPa15°F
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 48 mi52 min NW 7 G 11 20°F 32°F1030.7 hPa16°F
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 61 mi54 min NNW 5.1 G 8.9 10°F 1031.8 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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NW9
G14
NW9
G13
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G18
NW14
G20
NW16
G23
NW10
G19
N18
G23
N17
G27
N17
G26
N20
G25
N19
G27
NW11
G19
N8
N16
G23
N15
G20
N13
G17
N12
G15
N5
G13
N10
G15
NW10
G17
NW7
G10
N13
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G14
NW7
G12
1 day
ago
SE27
G34
SE21
G34
SE27
G34
SE27
SE23
G30
S19
G24
S19
G23
S11
S10
G13
SW9
G12
W16
G24
W14
G21
W16
G23
W15
G22
W14
G23
W15
G25
W14
G19
W16
G23
W11
G21
W14
G23
W17
G22
W13
G22
W13
G20
W11
G15
2 days
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NW8
NW6
G9
NW6
NW6
NW6
N2
G5
N3
SE13
G16
S10
G15
S10
S11
G14
S7
G10
S11
G14
S11
G14
SE15
SE16
SE17
SE20
G25
SE22
SE23
G30
SE17
G25
SE28
SE26
SE25
G32

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Hope, MI41 mi43 minNW 12 G 18 mi23°F15°F72%1032 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KP58

Wind History from P58 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW13NW13
G20
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--N13
G21
N11
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N10
G20
N8N15
G24
N11
G18
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G23
N12
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N12
G21
N8
G19
N8N8N13
G19
N7N8N8NW17
G23
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NW12
G18
1 day agoSE25
G34
SE22
G32
SE19
G30
SE14
G26
SE15
G25
--S12
G19
S9
G17
6SW12
G21
W9
G22
W14
G24
W13
G23
W10
G25
W14
G24
W12
G23
W13
G20
W11
G22
W10
G20
W11
G19
W15
G23
W10
G22
--NW16
2 days agoNW5NW543W4CalmCalmSE3S56S6S6S5S6SE8SE7SE10SE18SE19
G25
SE22
G27
SE21
G28
SE22
G29
SE22
G30
SE21
G35

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.