Sunrise 5:54 AM   Sunset 8:45 PM Moonrise 10:47 AM   Moonset 1:30 AM

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LHZ363 Expires:202405141000;;167798 Fzus63 Kdtx 140146 Glflh
open lake forecast for lake huron national weather service detroit/pontiac mi 946 pm edt Mon may 13 2024
for waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on lake huron
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
Synopsis - A stationary front holds across southern lake huron, which will be a focal point for shower activity through tomorrow morning and early afternoon hours. High pressure, 30.00 inches, will build in across the northern great lakes tomorrow afternoon, which will transition the stationary front into a cold front, pushing it south of the great lakes later in the day. This will reinforce north to northeast flow over the open waters.
lhz362-363-141000- lake huron from presque isle light to sturgeon point mi beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from sturgeon point to alabaster mi beyond 5nm off shore- 946 pm edt Mon may 13 2024
Rest of tonight - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight - .then decreasing to 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms this evening - .then scattered showers after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Tuesday - North winds 5 to 10 knots. Scattered showers in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Tuesday night - North winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Wednesday - North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Wednesday night - North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the late evening and overnight. Thursday - North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east 10 to 15 knots late in the morning - .then decreasing to 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon. A chance of showers late in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Friday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots until early morning. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Saturday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots backing to the southeast until early evening - .then backing to the east in the late evening and early morning. Waves 2 feet or less.

LHZ300
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FXUS63 KDTX 140247 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1047 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight. Severe weather is not expected, just some brief heavy rainfall and lightning.

- There is a chance for additional showers on Tuesday. The higher chances are near the Ohio border.

- Dry weather is expected Tuesday and Wednesday.

AVIATION

Frontal boundary is now just north of FNT with a narrow corridor of showers in its wake. Overall ceilings hold well above 5.0 kft agl at discussion issuance, but as the front gradually sinks south, increased convergence and moisture pooling work to lower ceilings toward MVFR (potentially lower at FNT and PTK which are nearest to the boundary). Frontal position is well marked by a shift to northeast winds that will hold through the TAF period. The DTW corridor may hold on to VFR ceilings or scattered coverage Tuesday owing to drier low levels and further distance from the front, but confidence is low at the moment given large variations in guidance.
Elevated portions of the frontal slope remain active with showers through Tuesday morning mainly along/north of PTK, while a disturbance lifts into the Ohio Valley which will support scattered showers around DTW as well. Improvements to ceilings and a decrease in shower coverage is anticipated Tuesday afternoon-evening.

For DTW/D21 Convection...thunderstorm activity has waned with loss of diurnal instability, thus no thunderstorms are expected at the terminal.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Medium confidence in cigs aob 5000 feet late tonight through Tuesday evening.

* Very low confidence in cigs/vsby aob 200 ft and/or 1/2sm 08z-14z Tuesday.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 320 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

DISCUSSION...

The latest meso analysis shows SB Cape near 1k J/kg across the Saginaw Valley/thumb south of a sfc cold front where dewpoints are in the low to mid 50s and temps are near 80. Ongoing development of deep convection supports latest CAMS solutions which indicate convection persisting through the early evening across the north, aided by the influx of instability arriving from SW Lower MI.
Despite the sfc front forecast to push south of metro Detroit late tonight, the loss in diurnal instability will limit nighttime coverage of convection as the front sinks south. This will warrant the better convective chances this evening along/north of the I-69 corridor, with decreasing chances to the south. With 0-1KM mixed layer CAPE still below 1k J/kg and limited deep layer shear (0-6km bulk shear values around 20 knots), strong to severe storm are not favored. The thumb region will be along the edge of stronger shear profiles and could see a marginal severe risk if late day instability overachieves a bit. Otherwise, warm and breezy conditions will last into the evening amidst robust late day mixing depths.

The upper low and associated sfc reflection now over Kansas/Missouri will track across the northern Ohio Valley Tues/Tues night. This system will drive a plume of deep layer moisture into Se Mi Tues.
Overall, the 12Z model suite suggest the stronger deformation forcing will remain closer to mid level circulation, generally south of the I-94 corridor. Lingering mid level frontal forcing, albeit weak, will remain over Se Mi into Tues night, which will at least support a chance of showers across most of the forecast area.
Shallow post frontal cool air undercutting the moisture may also support some areas of drizzle Tues morning. The post frontal cold air advection and cloud cover will result in a notable cooler day Tues (highs in the 50s near Lake Huron to 60s elsewhere). Mid level ridging in the wake of the upper low will lead to a gradual departure of the deep layer moisture on Wednesday.

The next chance of rain will be Friday resulting from deep layer moist isentropic ascent along a fast moving short wave. At this stage in the forecast, instability looks to be weak (under 1k J/kg) which should limit any severe weather risk.

MARINE...

Satellite imagery shows increasing cloud depths located across the Tri-Cities into the northern Thumb, pushing northeast into the Saginaw Bay to southern Lake Huron. This will be the focal point for shower and thunderstorm activity through the remainder of the afternoon and evening hours. The strongest thunderstorms will be capable of producing wind gusts to or just above 35 knots and small hail. Special Marine Warnings may be needed with any vigorous thunderstorms development. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to last through tonight along a stationary front, sagging slightly south into southern Lake Huron overnight into Tuesday morning. High pressure will build in across the upper Great Lakes which will end rain and thunderstorm chances through Tuesday afternoon and evening as a cold front clears the state. Wind direction will veer and hold from the north-northeast Tuesday and Wednesday in response to a low pressure system which will fill in across the Ohio Valley. This will increase wave heights into the Saginaw Bay and Lake Huron shorelines, where Small Craft Advisories will be likely.

HYDROLOGY...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will occur this evening, primarily along and north of the Interstate 69 corridor.
Locally intense rainfall rates are possible in some of these thunderstorms. Rainfall amount of a quarter to half inch are possible locally. Basin average rainfall is expected to remain below a half inch, so flooding (other than localized ponding of water on the roads) is not expected.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

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