Thursday, December12, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Toledo, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:37AMSunset 4:34PM Wednesday December 11, 2019 9:53 PM PST (05:53 UTC) Moonrise 4:32PMMoonset 7:02AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ255 Expires:201912121300;;209393 Fzus56 Kpqr 112230 Cwfpqr Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Portland Or 230 Pm Pst Wed Dec 11 2019 Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Washington To Florence Oregon And Westward 60 Nm Pzz250-255-121300- Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Wa To Cascade Head Or Out 10 Nm-coastal Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or Out 10 Nm- 230 Pm Pst Wed Dec 11 2019
.gale warning in effect until 1 am pst Thursday...
Tonight..S wind 25 to 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, becoming sw 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Combined seas 10 ft with a dominant period of 14 seconds, building to 14 ft with a dominant period of 13 seconds. Rain.
Thu..S wind 20 to 25 kt, becoming sw 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves sw 4 ft at 6 seconds. W swell 17 ft at 17 seconds. Rain in the morning, then showers and a slight chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Thu night..SW wind 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt, easing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves sw 3 ft at 6 seconds. W swell 16 ft at 16 seconds. Slight chance of tstms in the evening. Showers.
Fri..SW wind 5 to 10 kt. Gusts to 15 kt in the morning. Wind waves sw 2 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 15 ft at 16 seconds. Showers likely.
Fri night..SW wind 5 kt. Wind waves sw 1 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 13 ft at 15 seconds. Chance of showers.
Sat..S wind 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. W swell 12 ft. Chance of showers.
Sat night..SE wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft. W swell 9 ft. Chance of showers.
Sun..S wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. W swell 10 ft.
Mon..SE wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. W swell 9 ft.
PZZ200 230 Pm Pst Wed Dec 11 2019
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. A strong front will bring gale force winds today with larger seas tonight into Thu. Weak high pres builds over the waters Fri.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Toledo, OR
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location: 44.54, -123.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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FXUS66 KPQR 120545 AAA AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATE National Weather Service Portland OR 315 PM PST Wed Dec 11 2019

Updated aviation discussion

SYNOPSIS. Low level rain and high elevation snow will persist through Thursday, turning to rain and snow showers Friday through the weekend.

SHORT TERM. Wednesday afternoon through Saturday . A warm front lifted north earlier today with some rain remaining in the area behind it this afternoon. Most areas will see rain briefly become more showery overnight before the next system arrives. Satellite imagery this afternoon shows a cloud band associated with a strong cold front located around 128W with cold pool convection behind it. There hasn't been much change in the short term forecast thinking today, so kept the forecast pretty consistent. It continues to look like we'll get a significant amount of rain and high elevation snow over the next 24 hours, but dry antecedent conditions should mean there's no river flooding threat. Significant street ponding is likely if any street drains are clogged, but don't see an overall threat for urban flooding.

In addition to rainy, Thursday also looks windy across the board, although significant wind impacts aren't expected. Operational model runs are pretty consistent in showing about a 4 mb gradient in the Willamette Valley, which should translate to winds well below Wind Advisory criteria, but people are likely to notice that it's windy. In the Cascades, wind will combine with snow, but given the wet nature of the snow, don't think the combo will cause long lasting significant visibility reductions.

Of note to beachgoers, Thursday's surf is likely to bring hazardous beach conditions in the form of consistently higher than usual wave run-ups (high surf) and occasional surprising extra long run- ups (sneaker waves). See the High Surf Advisory for more details.

Thursday afternoon, behind the front, kept in a slight chance for thunderstorms along the north OR and south WA coasts. Lightning networks have detected some lightning in the cold pool behind the front (well offshore) this afternoon and models continue to show favorable instability into Thursday evening as the cold pool moves towards the local area.

Also with the cold pool, snow levels in the Cascades will fall late Thursday afternoon through Friday, settling around 3500 to 4000 ft Friday, then dropping further Saturday to around 2500 ft. Expect showery conditions as the snow level drops, so while widespread snow accumulations after Friday morning are expected to be unimpressive, on/off snow will continue through at least Saturday. Bowen

LONG TERM. Saturday night through Wednesday . Operational models seem to be in agreement that an upper level trough will move through the area Saturday night through Monday, increasing chances for precipitation for the forecast area. Snow levels during this time will settle around 2500 ft bringing snow to the Cascades. Beginning Monday night, operational models are in agreement that an upper level ridge will develop over the Pacific NW until at least Tuesday. This should result in a break from the rainy pattern. However, uncertainty remains in the duration of this ridging. Following this brief dry period, an active pattern continues for the foreseeable future starting Wednesday. -Thaler

AVIATION. The front has all but passed allowing for rain to begin to tapper off. While there will still be periods of heavier showers dropping visibilities slightly, those should mostly be concentrated to southwest Washington. The next band of precipitation, associated with a shortwave, is expected to occur around 14Z Thu. This precipitation in conjunction with lifting skies in the post-frontal environment may cause patchy fog to form causing visibilities and ceilings to drop yet again. This is expected to occur at or around 12Z Thu. A rain/fog mix will persist through around 18Z Thu when conditions begin to lighten and the rain moves eastward over the Cascades. Easterly flow is expected to begin to diminish and shift onshore causing gusty winds to come to an end. Chance of some remaining strong winds aloft around 30kt at 1500 ft but LLWS was left out of TAFs. Clearing skies through the day on Thu will create an environment suitable for widespread fog development, especially in prone areas around the Willamette Valley. Heavy snow is expected above 4,000 ft ASL.

KPDX AND APPROACHES . VFR conditions deteriorating through the night to solid MVFR by 09Z Thu. Rain through the night becoming light at time, but generally showery. Winds are beginning to slow and will continue to turn offshore through Thu. A brief period of fog is possible after 12Z Thu, but another band of precipitation may keep that at bay. Expect conditions to improve to VFR after 00Z Fri through the remainder of the period. -Muessle

MARINE. Previous discussion as follows. Winds will ramp-up today as a strong front from a Gulf of Alaska low swings across the waters bringing Gale force winds between 40 to 45 kt later this afternoon through the evening hours. Winds will subside but remain gusty through Thursday night which will continue to pose hazards for small crafts. High pressure builds over the waters Friday which will weaken the winds to 10 kt or lower. There is a possibility of a weaker front arriving Saturday but there is too much disagreement on the strength of the winds to put much confidence in the arrival time

There is a general consensus between models that the primary swell will be between 17 to 19 ft and period between 15 and 17s. Combined wave heights may reach 20 ft in some areas, mainly offshore. Seas will generally stay at or above 10 ft through the weekend. Long period swells pose an increased risk for hazardous beaches. -BPhillips

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . High Surf Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM PST Thursday for Central Oregon Coast-North Oregon Coast.

Winter Storm Warning until noon PST Friday for Northern Oregon Cascades.

Winter Storm Warning until noon PST Friday for Cascades in Lane County.

WA . High Surf Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM PST Thursday for South Washington Coast.

Winter Storm Warning until noon PST Friday for South Washington Cascades.

PZ . Gale Warning until 1 AM PST Thursday for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM PST Thursday for Columbia River Bar.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWPO3 - Newport, OR 8 mi53 min SSW 18 G 21 52°F 1012.8 hPa (+1.7)
SBEO3 - 9435380 - South Beach, OR 8 mi53 min SSW 8.9 G 16 52°F 49°F1012.7 hPa (+1.6)
46097 20 mi123 min SSW 18 52°F 51°F1010.1 hPa
46050 - STONEWALL BANKS - 20NM West of Newport, OR 32 mi33 min SW 18 G 23 53°F 52°F1011.7 hPa51°F

Wind History for South Beach, Yaquina River, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Newport, Newport Municipal Airport, OR6 mi58 minSSW 16 G 224.00 miFog/Mist52°F51°F100%1013.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KONP

Wind History from ONP (wind in knots)
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1 day agoE4E5E6E5E6E4E5E7E5E4E5E5CalmE4CalmCalmCalmSE3E3CalmCalmE4E3Calm
2 days agoE4E5E9E8CalmE7S3E4E3E4E7E8SE3E4E4E4CalmW4CalmCalmCalmSE3SE4E6

Tide / Current Tables for Toledo, Yaquina Bay and River, Oregon
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Toledo
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:28 AM PST     7.00 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:35 AM PST     2.99 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:42 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:07 AM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 12:20 PM PST     9.25 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:35 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:17 PM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:38 PM PST     -0.83 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.26.96.96.253.93.13.13.85.26.98.49.29.18.16.44.32.20.4-0.6-0.80.11.63.5

Tide / Current Tables for Yaquina, Yaquina Bay and River, Oregon
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Yaquina
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:54 AM PST     7.12 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:51 AM PST     3.51 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:43 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:08 AM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 11:46 AM PST     9.40 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:35 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:18 PM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:54 PM PST     -0.97 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.87.16.75.74.63.83.545.16.68.19.19.48.77.25.12.80.8-0.6-1-0.412.84.7

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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