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PZZ253 Coastal Waters From Cape Foulweather To Florence Or Out 10 Nm- 226 Am Pst Thu Dec 7 2023
.hazardous seas warning in effect until 11 am pst this morning...
.small craft advisory in effect from 11 am pst this morning through late tonight...
Today..W wind 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves W 3 ft at 5 seconds. SWell W 12 ft at 13 seconds. Showers and a slight chance of tstms.
Tonight..W wind 10 to 15 kt. Gusts to 20 kt in the evening. Wind waves W 2 ft at 4 seconds. SWell W 10 ft at 11 seconds. Slight chance of tstms in the evening. Showers.
Fri..NW wind 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt, backing to S in the afternoon. Wind waves nw 1 ft at 4 seconds, shifting to the S 1 ft at 4 seconds in the afternoon. SWell W 9 ft at 12 seconds. Chance of showers.
Fri night..SE wind 5 to 10 kt, rising to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves se 2 ft at 4 seconds. SWell W 8 ft at 11 seconds.
Sat..SE wind 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt, becoming S 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt in the afternoon. Combined seas 17 ft with a dominant period of 16 seconds in the afternoon. Rain.
Sat night..S wind 25 to 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Combined seas 17 ft with a dominant period of 14 seconds. Rain.
Sun..S wind 20 to 25 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt. Combined seas 16 ft with a dominant period of 12 seconds.
Mon..N wind 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt. Wind waves N 2 ft at 4 seconds. SWell W 6 ft at 12 seconds and N 4 ft at 5 seconds.

PZZ200 226 Am Pst Thu Dec 7 2023
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. A fast moving system will cross the coastal waters early Thursday maintaining hazardous seas into the late morning. High pressure will build over the region Friday. Broad area of low pressure in the gulf of alaska will send a front towards the waters over the weekend bringing chances for gales.

FXUS66 KPQR 071110 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 308 AM PST Thu Dec 7 2023

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure moving across the region today, along with cooler air aloft, will provide plenty of showers, and perhaps a thunderstorm or two along the coast. Snow will pile up in the Cascades. Will get a break in the weather for Friday, with only a small chance of showers. But rain returns for the weekend. Cooler and drier weather expected to return next week.

.SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)...
Broad low pressure over the region today, with cool moist westerly flow aloft. NOAA satellite imagery showing main upper low now off the Washington coast. As of 1 am, do have surface low about 125 miles to west of Astoria, moving to the east. Timing suggest landfall on the Long Beach peninsula around 5 to 6 am today. As such, will likely get some breezy south winds along the coast through that time, then winds turning west to southwest behind the low as it moves onshore and inland over the Willapa Hills and on to the east. While high winds not expected, should see gusts 35 to 50 mph through about mid-morning. Strongest winds will be from Tillamook/Cape Meares area northward across south Washington coast, and from about 4 am to 9 am today.

Again, plenty of showers today as the system moves inland. Will also have a few isolated thunderstorms on the coastal waters, spreading onshore by daybreak. Once the low moves inland, westerly flow aloft will maintain onshore flow with cool unstable air. Snow levels are running around 3500 to 4000 ft this am. With the favorable west to southwest flow, will have improved orographic flow. While precipitation amounts will not all that heavy, should be enough to maintain decent snowfall across the Cascades. Generally, look to get 10 to 20 inches of snow in the Cascades for today through early Friday am. As such, will put up Winter Weather Advisory for areas above 3500 feet for today through mid-Friday am.

Showers will gradually decrease later tonight into Friday morning, as get weak ridging. May even have enough to have rather large period of dry weather. But, will maintain some chance PoPs for many areas, primarily over the Cascades. Do think will drier weather by Friday evening, with that dry weather lasting through most of Friday night.
/Rockey

LONGER TERM
(Saturday through Tuesday)...
Next system arriving on Saturday. But models have been slowing this system down, and delaying the rain across the region. So, with coordination with neighboring offices, will slow rain arrival on Sat.
Will spread rain inland along the coast by afternoon, and further inland in the afternoon (mainly the northern zones, or Portland northward. Bulk of this system will push over most of the region Sat night into Sunday morning. Not the heavy rain as seen early this week, but will get enough rain for some rises on rivers. Still, no renewed flooding expected. Rainfall generally in 1 to 3 inches range along the coast/coast mtns, and across southwest Washington, with 0.50 to 1 inch for inland lowlands.

WPC cluster analysis shows upper level ridging building over the Pacific coast early next week bringing a couple of dry days to the region. However, there are indications that another frontal system could impact the region sometime mid to late week, though uncertainty is high in precipitation amounts at this time. /Rockey/Alvis

AVIATION
Widespread mix of VFR/MVFR cigs with the occluded front moving northeast, extending southeast into the Cascades.
Expect VFR conditions early Thursday morning, with HRRR suggesting chances around 10-30% for MVFR cigs through 18Z Thursday. MVFR cigs may return later Thursday morning into the afternoon as an upper trough transits west to east across the area, however guidance suggests a 30-50% chance of MVFR cigs returning around 18-19Z so uncertainty remains.

A weakening surface low will approach the north coast around 12-16Z Thu, so will see southerly wind increase with gusts 25-30 kt along the coast and 15-20 kt for inland TAF sites through about 21Z.

*Please note that the automated weather station at KONP (Newport) is currently out of service. This site is not maintained by the National Weather Service. Because of this, the TAF produced for KONP is based on model data without the input of observations, and may not be representative of current conditions.

PDX AND APPROACHES...Expect a mix of VFR and MVFR conditions through Thursday. Guidance suggests a 30-50% chance of MVFR cigs throughout the TAF period. Increasing winds around 16Z may help mix the lower layers, reducing the likelihood of MVFR cigs during this time. /JH

MARINE
A dynamic pattern will maintain active weather across the waters through the weekend. Seas still holding at 13-15 ft this am. Winds and seas will diminish going into this evening but will likely remain above 13 ft.

The next frontal system, currently near buoy 46005, is fast approaching. The low is expected to cross the coastal waters early Thursday. Model guidance is showing seas building in the southwest sector of the low for a brief period up to 17 ft within the region of strongest winds. Gale Force wind gusts are possible but they're not all that widespread. The most likely area of Gales will be in PZZ272 but depending on where the low tracks this could shift.

High pressure will build across the waters bringing weaker northwesterly winds with a westerly swell between 10-12 ft remaining. An upper level trough will send its attendant surface low towards the coast Friday night into Saturday bringing southerly winds back across the waters. Gale Force wind gusts likely ahead of the cold front which is expected to cross the waters Saturday evening. -BMuhlestein/JH

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Friday for Cascades in Lane County-Northern Oregon Cascades.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Friday for South Washington Cascades.

PZ...Hazardous Seas Warning until 11 AM PST this morning for Coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 4 AM PST Friday for Coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Columbia River Bar.

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Toledo
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Thu -- 01:55 AM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:14 AM PST     1.99 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:38 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:50 AM PST     7.69 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:44 PM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:46 PM PST     1.87 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:35 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:26 PM PST     5.66 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Toledo, Yaquina Bay and River, Oregon, Tide feet

Yaquina
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Thu -- 01:30 AM PST     2.34 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:55 AM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:38 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:16 AM PST     7.82 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:45 PM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:02 PM PST     2.20 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:35 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:52 PM PST     5.76 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Yaquina, Yaquina Bay and River, Oregon, Tide feet

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