Sunday, September19, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Oscoda, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 7:39PM Sunday September 19, 2021 12:08 PM EDT (16:08 UTC) Moonrise 6:32PMMoonset 4:27AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ349 Sturgeon Pt To Alabaster Mi- 1006 Am Edt Sun Sep 19 2021
Today..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..South wind 10 to 15 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Monday..South wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Monday night..South wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ349 Expires:202109192215;;855841 FZUS53 KAPX 191406 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1006 AM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ349-192215-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oscoda, MI
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location: 44.54, -83.31     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 191326 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 926 AM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021

UPDATE. Issued at 926 AM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021

Few updates needed to most wx fields today. A band of mid-clouds is slowly working across central upper MI and eastern WI. This will erode as it tries to work into this forecast area. The 12Z APX observed sounding is dry below 600mb, though not as much so as yesterday. Overall, another pretty day with abundant sunshine and warmer max temps (in the 70s to around 80f, warmest near TVC/MBL/Gladwin.

Have lowered dew points a fair bit, as deep mixing at least partially offsets the onset of low-level moist advection. From a fire wx standpoint, both RH values and winds are progged to come up a little short of critical values. We don't quite rise to the point of needing 'elevated fire danger' wording, but we're not too far off, especially in ne lower MI.

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 328 AM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: Mid-level ridging and attendant surface high pressure remain atop the region early this morning; however, both features will gradually shift eastward through the morning hours with southerly return flow ramping up as the pressure gradient tightens. While little in the way of sensible weather is anticipated through the forecast period, deep layer moisture/cloud cover will gradually increase tonight.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Above normal high temperatures.

Lots of sunshine expected to prevail across northern Michigan today as southerly winds promote temperatures surging another 5-10 degrees above Saturday's high temps. Highs expected to range from the upper 70s to low 80s . some 10-15 degrees above the mid-60 degrees mid- September normals.

Continued southerly winds should help in keeping temperatures more "mild" tonight (generally the 50s to low 60s) vs. the ongoing chilly temps. Cloud cover also expected to gradually increase through the overnight hours as the next system encroaches from the south and west, but any precip should hold off until the daytime hours Monday.

SHORT TERM. (Monday through Tuesday) Issued at 328 AM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021

. Turning Showery and Eventually Cooler .

High impact weather: None is expected.

Remnant tropical moisture that was stalled along the Gulf coast over the last few days gets drawn northward on the backside of the departing upper level ridge. This setup is expected to result in a round of showers Monday afternoon and evening. Attention then turns to the west where a surface cold front will approach the area overnight and move through the area Tuesday. Another round of showers (and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder) including locally heavy rainfall amounts are expected. Model consensus has between a half and an inch of rain with locally higher amounts (though there could be some convective feedback issues at work here). Temperatures will remain on the warm side Monday with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s. Lows Monday night in the mild upper 50s to mid 60s. Temperatures Tuesday will top out in the upper 60s to mid 70s but likely fall off a bit in the afternoon with steady cold air advection behind the front.

LONG TERM. (Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 328 AM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021

. Unseasonably Cool with Shower Chances .

High impact weather potential: None is expected.

The long term forecast remains a tough one to diagnose with extended models continuing to vary on the evolution and track of a cutoff upper level low which will likely slowly track into the central Great Lakes Wednesday into early Friday. The movement of this system will determine the amount and extent of shower activity during this time but there is plenty of model disagreement so forecast confidence is rather low. Meanwhile, cold air aloft could produce some northerly flow lake effect rain showers. In addition, a northern stream trough will bring additional shower chances Friday and Saturday. Temperatures are expected to be several degrees below normal through the period.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) Issued at 720 AM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021

VFR.

High pressure has moved east of Lk Huron, allowing light southerly low-level flow to develop. This will remain on the dry side today and much of tonight. VFR conditions will continue, with just some cirrus and maybe a cumulus cloud or two today. Higher clouds will increase late tonight.

Light southerly breezes, which will be just a touch gusty this afternoon.

MARINE. Issued at 328 AM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021

Light/calm winds presently will turn more southerly and become breezy at times as high pressure shifts off to the east throughout the day allowing the pressure gradient to tighten. Despite this breeziness, winds/waves are expected to remain just below small craft criteria. Shower/storm chances increase Monday, and especially Monday night as the next system moves into the area from the south and west.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . NONE. LM . NONE. LS . NONE.

UPDATE . JZ NEAR TERM . MG SHORT TERM . AS LONG TERM . AS AVIATION . JZ MARINE . MG


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 21 mi28 min SSE 1.9 G 4.1 73°F 1024.4 hPa
45162 31 mi28 min SSE 12 G 14 65°F 1 ft1023 hPa
TBIM4 35 mi38 min S 12 G 13 67°F
APNM4 - Alpena Harbor Light, MI 36 mi28 min S 9.9 G 11 65°F
LPNM4 - Alpena, MI - 9075065 37 mi50 min S 5.1 G 7 64°F 62°F1022.7 hPa57°F
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 38 mi28 min SE 5.1 G 6 64°F 1024 hPa
45163 41 mi28 min SE 3.9 G 3.9 71°F 1 ft1025.1 hPa
KP58 45 mi73 min SE 7 69°F 1023.3 hPa49°F

Wind History for Alpena, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Oscoda, Oscoda-Wurtsmith Airport, MI7 mi73 minS 710.00 miFair67°F54°F64%1024 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOSC

Wind History from OSC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE8E8
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E8NE7E8NE7E6E4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4S6
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SW9SW5SW4NW4NE6N10N9N8N6N5N3N4NW3N5N4NW4N4NE9
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SE7SE9SE7SE7SE4S6S7S7S5S4S7S4S3CalmSW3CalmSW3SW6SW8SW7

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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