Tuesday, January19, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Oscoda, MI

Version 3.4
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8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 8:01AMSunset 5:31PM Tuesday January 19, 2021 1:40 PM EST (18:40 UTC) Moonrise 11:37AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 38% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ349 Sturgeon Pt To Alabaster Mi- 948 Am Est Tue Jan 19 2021
Today..West wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Chance of snow showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Scattered snow showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Southwest wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Chance of flurries. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday night..Southwest wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Patchy freezing drizzle. Waves 4 to 6 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ349 Expires:202101192300;;162797 FZUS53 KAPX 191448 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 948 AM EST Tue Jan 19 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ349-192300-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oscoda, MI
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location: 44.54, -83.31     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 191738 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1238 PM EST Tue Jan 19 2021

UPDATE. Issued at 1049 AM EST Tue Jan 19 2021

Lake effect snow (LES) ongoing across the traditional snowbelts of northern MI late this morning. Elongated surface troffing cutting west/east in the vicinity of the Straits of Mackinac. This troffing delineates the transition from northwest flow LES across upper MI, and west flow LES across northern Lower. An upper-level trof, clearly evident on water vapor imagery, will dive out of northwest Ontario and the upper Midwest later today into this evening and provide a synoptic boost to the ongoing LES. Once the trof clears the area this evening, northwest flow LES will prevail areawide for the balance of the night. Plan to keep current Winter Weather Advisories going, although it is possible that the Emmet/Cheboygan portion of the advisory (which currently expires at 7 pm) may need to be extended through the evening.

Have updated forecast into this evening for the latest and expected hourly trends. However, most of these changes were minor.

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 345 AM EST Tue Jan 19 2021

. Accumulating lake effect snow the next few days .

High Impact Weather Potential: Heavier lake effect across the snow belts into midweek.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Overnight composite analysis reveals larger scale long-wave trough across the eastern two-thirds of the NOAM, anchored by sharp ridging along the Pacific coast. Subtle short-wave energy is sliding through the western lakes region this morning. Associated surface low has spun up over eastern Upper Michigan early this morning with a cold front that arcs down into the lower lakes then back into the Midwest. Secondary stronger wave is poised across western Ontario . slated to drop into the region this evening.

Colder air spreading into the Great Lakes along with background synoptic forcing is producing some rather robust lake enhanced snow showers at the moment. Most intense snowfall is occurring across NW/north Central Lower Michigan along a sfc trough sliding through early this morning . with snowfall rates of one to two inches per hour per MMRS QPF estimates. Another area of heavier snowfall is occurring with a mesolow circulation feature moving through SE Lake Superior into the Whitefish Bay/Chippewa county area.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Snow accumulations/headlines.

Intial short-wave trough will slide eastward out of the region this morning with low level mean flow settling into a W/WNW flow for the day. After our intial burst of heavy but somewhat disorganized snow showers now moving through, we should settle into a bit more persistent WNW banded snow showers later this morning and through the afternoon. Ongoing cold advection/H8 temps falling to neg 17C to neg 20C by 00Z, and higher inversion heights push lake induced CAPE values to 600 to 700 J/Kg on Michigan and Superior leading to decent lake effect snows through the day.

Lake effect conditions further improve for a bit this evening as aforementioned secondary stronger short-wave digs down and through the western lakes. Another uptick in synoptic forcing and inversion heights push lake induced CAPE values just a bit higher, with BufKit MODERATE to EXTREME lake effect conditions forecast. Snow accumulation rates of one to two inches per hour again seem reasonable, although veering low level mean winds may tend to spread accumulations around just a bit. Exiting wave/subsidence overnight should tend to diminish lake effect snow intensities during the overnight hours.

Accumulations and upshot to all this: Periodic heavier lake snows anticipated through this evening with snowfall rates of one to two inches per hour certainly attainable. Mesoscale features and meandering low level flow may tend to spread accumulations out a bit. But a general 4 to 7 inches of accumulations (24 hour total through this evening) look reasonable across the current advisory areas. Will have to keep an eye out for any sneaky persistent heavy lake effect band that could tip the scales into warning criteria.

SHORT TERM. (Wednesday through Thursday) Issued at 345 AM EST Tue Jan 19 2021

High impact weather potential: Accumulating lake effect/enhanced snow is possible Wednesday night through Friday, especially across the traditional snowbelt locations of eastern upper Michigan. Maybe some freezing drizzle Wednesday afternoon through Thursday across northern Michigan as well?

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Winds back to more southwesterly Wednesday as heights finally begin to increase and the recent broad cyclonic flow over much of the eastern CONUS is replaced with ridging. Although the lake effect/enhanced snows will become greatly diminished there will be a chance of an extended period of time with freezing drizzle either mixing in or completely changing to freezing drizzle with heights increasing aloft ahead of the approaching wave . and surface temperatures remaining well below freezing Wednesday afternoon/evening into Thursday. Winds begin to veer back to west- northwest to northwesterly Thursday along with colder air in the wake of the aforementioned departing wave. This will return the chances of lake effect/enhanced snows through the remainder of this forecast period . and beyond. Eastern upper will see the greatest accumulations with the more predominant west-northwesterly flow . with several inches of additional accumulation expected. Will continue to monitor the ever-changing weather and update accordingly. Temperatures will be normal to near normal for this time of the year, with highs in the 20s to low 30s and lows in the single digits and teens above zero.

LONG TERM. (Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 345 AM EST Tue Jan 19 2021

High Impact Weather Potential: Monitoring late week system.

NW winds on the backside will continue to funnel in colder air and lake effect snows to the region. While model differences exist and we're still several days out, confidence continues to increase in ample low-level moisture being in place to support a second round of accumulating lake effect snow through Saturday. Details of specific amounts and anticipated locations of highest amounts will become more clear as the weekend nears.

Otherwise, the aforementioned cold advection will drop high temperatures back down into the low to mid 20s, which is right around seasonal averages for northern Michigan. Chilly lows in the teens and single digits are also expected heading into the weekend. While not trying to look too far ahead, enough guidance consistency exists to keep eyes open on the potential for another impactful Great Lakes system early next week.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 1238 PM EST Tue Jan 19 2021

Highly variable conditions, but more MVFR than anything else.

Lake effect snow continues, in the wake of weak low pressure ne of Georgian Bay. IFR to LIFR conditions are occurring in the heaviest snow bands, but these conditions are brief and most common in the area between PLN, TVC, and APN. PLN and TVC in particular have the best chance of seeing IFR/LIFR vsbys in SHSN, this afternoon/evening and early overnight. Snow diminishes late tonight as winds start to back. Snow-liquid ratios are and will remain very high; 20:1 to 30:1.

W to nw winds today will be a touch gusty. Winds back to the w and sw Wed morning, becoming gusty again toward midday.

MARINE. Issued at 345 AM EST Tue Jan 19 2021

Gusty westerly to northwesterly winds will produce small craft advisory conditions through this evening. Winds/waves do subside for a bit later tonight into Wednesday. However, SW winds will ramp back up quickly Wednesday with gale force gusts possible through Wednesday night.

Have small craft advisories in effect for today. Gale watch cover later Wednesday/Wednesday night and will likely be upgraded to a warning with later forecasts (once we get past the initial headlines).

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 7 AM EST Wednesday for MIZ020>022- 026>028-086-087-099. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ016- 017. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until midnight EST tonight for LHZ345>348. LM . GALE WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday night for LMZ323-341-342-344>346. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until midnight EST tonight for LMZ323-341- 342-344>346. LS . NONE.

UPDATE . PB NEAR TERM . BA SHORT TERM . TL LONG TERM . TL AVIATION . JZ MARINE . BA


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 21 mi60 min W 9.9 G 20 26°F 1016.6 hPa
TBIM4 35 mi100 min 12 G 15 25°F
APNM4 - Alpena Harbor Light, MI 36 mi30 min W 14 G 17 26°F
LPNM4 - Alpena, MI - 9075065 37 mi52 min W 8.9 G 14 27°F 18°F
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 38 mi60 min WSW 22 G 25 25°F 1016.6 hPa
KP58 45 mi43 min W 12 G 22 28°F 1016.8 hPa15°F

Wind History for Alpena, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Oscoda, Oscoda-Wurtsmith Airport, MI7 mi45 minW 18 G 2410.00 miFair and Breezy27°F16°F62%1015.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOSC

Wind History from OSC (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNE3N3N3CalmN3CalmN3CalmCalmNW5NW4NW3NW5NW5NW4NW4NW6NW5NW3W3NW6NW7NW6W6
2 days agoSW5SW6SW5SW6SW7SW8W6W4W5W4W3W3CalmW5W4W3NW3W4W4NW5N8N4N5NE4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.