Monday, August19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Oscoda, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 8:35PM Monday August 19, 2019 1:10 PM EDT (17:10 UTC) Moonrise 9:45PMMoonset 9:28AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ349 Sturgeon Pt To Alabaster Mi- 1048 Am Edt Mon Aug 19 2019
Today..Variable wind 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..South wind 5 to 10 knots. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..South wind 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ349 Expires:201908192300;;470044 FZUS53 KAPX 191448 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1048 AM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ349-192300-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oscoda, MI
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location: 44.54, -83.31     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 191653
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1253 pm edt Mon aug 19 2019

Update
Issued at 1024 am edt Mon aug 19 2019
minimal changes to the going forecast foreseen for afternoon.

Surface low pressure stretches across hudson bay with a cold front
arcing down through quebec and then back through southern lower
michigan. Secondary trough front stretches down into the northern
plans upper midwest area along with a compact area of cloud cover
and even a few showers from northern minnesota into ontario.

Surface high pressure dry air spans much of northern michigan with
lots of clear skies in place this morning.

Rest of today: secondary boundary and batch of cloud cover will
skirt across lake superior, but does look to stay out of the
u.P. Eastern upper michigan. Lots of dry air otherwise with
minimal support for any afternoon "heating of the day" clouds per
forecast soundings. So... Plan to maintain overall sunny skies
along with seasonable temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 412 am edt Mon aug 19 2019

Plenty of Sun and seasonable temperatures today...

high impact weather potential: minimal.

Pattern synopsis forecast: 04z surface composite analysis shows a
997mb surface low near the southern tip of james bay with a cold
front extending southwest across eastern upper southeast wi central
ia. 1015mb surface high behind the front centered over southwest
mn. Skies are mostly clear across eastern upper with some high
based sc ac along the front across northern lower... But any
lingering precipitation has cleared lower michigan with clear skies
upstream as drier air spreads across the upper great lakes.

Isentropic ascent and weaker stability forcing some mid cloud and
high based showers over southern manitoba northwest ontario.

Surface high will expand into the upper lakes today along with
rising heights as upper level flow becomes zonal across the upper
midwest great lakes.

Primary forecast concerns: few and far between today with the
arrival of high pressure and drier air. Looking at a good bit of
sunshine today with falling dew points and mostly seasonable
afternoon highs (70s to lower 80s). Mainly clear skies tonight and
light winds will allow temperatures to sink into the 50s and perhaps
some upper 40s in interior locales.

Short term (Tuesday through Wednesday)
issued at 412 am edt Mon aug 19 2019
high impact weather potential: minimal
pattern synopsis and forecast:
surface high pressure anchored over the great lakes will dominate
Tuesday's weather, with mostly clear skies, light winds, and warm
temperatures. The zonal flow of late will become progressive as the
great lakes region remains in broad upper level troughing through
the forecast period. A weak cold front associated with a low
pressure system over the james bay region will sweep into the
forecast area late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Cloud cover will be
on the increase ahead of the boundary Tuesday afternoon with rain
and possibly some thunder (near lake michigan shoreline?) chances
arriving during the evening nighttime hours. This slow moving
boundary may trigger some more showers Wednesday afternoon, mainly
closer to the saginaw bay region where diurnal heating and possible
lake breezes may aid in the development. Although some high pressure
builds back into the region later Wednesday, wouldn't be surprised
if the upper level troughing and available moisture produce more
cloud cover than is forecast at this time. Winds will become
southwesterly ahead of the aforementioned cold front Tuesday
afternoon and veer to the northwest behind the front Wednesday and
Thursday. With the caa... Winds could become gusty Wednesday
afternoon, especially over the lakes and eastern upper. Temperatures
will be in the low to mid 80s, possibly even see some upper 80s, as
southwesterly winds advect warmer and moisture air into the forecast
area. Wednesday will be cooler once again with the CAA behind the
said boundary, reaching into the mid to upper 70s. As colder air
continues to filter in on northwesterly flow, some locations may
only reach into the mid 60s Thursday.

Long term (Wednesday night through Sunday)
issued at 412 am edt Mon aug 19 2019
high impact weather... None is expected.

The long term models are in agreement with this period mostly being
under surface high pressure with the exception of yet another weak
cold front and attendant upper level wave dropping down from central
canada during the late weekend Monday timeframe. This will most
likely be the only precipitation chances during this forecast
period. Temperatures will moderate a bit each day, beginning in the
low to mid 70s Friday and reaching near 80 by Sunday.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 1254 pm edt Mon aug 19 2019
high pressure and dry air across the region will insure solidVFR
conditions through the upcoming TAF period. Sustained winds will
remain under 10 knots, with tendency for a little gustiness this
afternoon.

Marine
Issued at 412 am edt Mon aug 19 2019
lingering small craft advisories should be able to be dropped at
forecast issuance... The only exception may be along the straits to
presque isle light lake huron nearshore zone where winds are
still a bit gusty. But a flattening pressure gradient as high
pressure builds in from the west should eventually allow some
lake breeze development this afternoon. Winds expected to become
more southwesterly Tuesday... Then back northwest Wednesday behind
a cold front... With gusty winds possibly requiring another round
of small craft advisories.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Update... Ba
near term... Jpb
short term... Tl
long term... Tl
aviation... Ba
marine... Jpb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 21 mi30 min S 7 G 9.9 77°F 1017.3 hPa
45162 31 mi50 min NW 7.8 G 9.7 71°F 69°F1 ft
TBIM4 35 mi50 min N 1.9 G 4.1 75°F
APNM4 - Alpena Harbor Light, MI 36 mi30 min NW 8.9 G 12 73°F
LPNM4 - Alpena, MI - 9075065 37 mi58 min NW 5.1 G 8 73°F 63°F1017 hPa49°F
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 38 mi30 min SSE 7 G 7 71°F 1017.9 hPa
45163 41 mi50 min SSE 3.9 G 5.8 76°F 74°F
KP58 45 mi79 min ENE 4.1 72°F 1016.4 hPa55°F

Wind History for Alpena, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Oscoda, Oscoda-Wurtsmith Airport, MI7 mi75 minN 010.00 miFair78°F50°F39%1016.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOSC

Wind History from OSC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS14
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S6SW10W7W8W5W7SW6W5W5NW5NW4NW4CalmCalmNW3CalmCalm
1 day agoW11
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SW11SW12W10W8W5NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmSW10S7S10
2 days agoSE7SE9SE7E8SE7SE7SE7SE6SE3SE3SE5SE7SE7SE6CalmCalmCalmSW6W5SW5SW5W9W7W14
G18

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.