Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Newport, OR

SHORT TERM
Now through Thursday Night...Mostly dry conditions have returned to the region this afternoon as the upper-level shortwave trough responsible for the earlier precipitation has exited east of the Cascades. A shower or two can't be ruled out the rest of the day until sunset due to lingering weak low- level instability, especially in near the Cascade foothills, but dry conditions likely prevail for most locations going forward.

Warmer and completely dry weather is then expected on Wednesday as a upper level ridge begins to build into the region with afternoon highs ranging from the upper 60s to near 70 in the interior lowlands. Temperatures still look to spike rapidly on Thursday as the ridge amplifies directly overhead, sending 850 mb temps into the 13-16 C range. Throughout most of the day the axis of an accompanying near surface thermal trough will sit draped south to north across the coast range allowing for weak easterly flow to preside across the region as well. This likely corresponds to highs reaching the upper 70s to mid 80s across many interior valley locations, which is supported by NBM probs now giving the Portland Metro a greater than 95-99% chance to reach 80 degrees and other valley locations a 80-90% of doing so. The Portland area also has around a 50-80% chance to reach 85 degrees but notably only about a 3-5% chance to reach 90 degrees, placing an upper bound on how high temperatures may go Thursday afternoon. So at least for the interior lowlands, confidence is high it's going to be an abnormally warm day for late April/early May. Meanwhile, marine influences still look to keep coastal locations much more mild by comparison with temperatures topping out in the 60s for those communities on Thursday. The highest uncertainty in the temperature forecast is for locations in and around the coast range where a minor shift in the near surface thermal trough could spell the difference between marine influence and highs in the upper 60s, or weak offshore flow and highs near 80.

LONG TERM
Friday through Monday...WPC ensemble clusters continue to indicate a return of upper level troughing Friday into the weekend as the ridge shifts east of the region, ushering in another period of potentially wetter weather as temperatures return closer to seasonal norms in the 60s by Saturday. Deterministic and ensemble guidance do continue to show some timing difference/uncertainty on Friday which will heavily impact temperatures. The current forecast reflects more of a mid afternoon arrival of showers inland but should guidance continue to push back the timing of the trough, inland temperatures will need to be a adjusted 3-6 degrees higher into the mid to upper 70s.

If you are looking for rainfall amounts that will significantly move the needle coming out of this very dry April, models unfortunately do not provide too much optimism as probabilistic guidance gives most lowland areas only a 20-30% chance to receive a wetting rain of a quarter inch Friday through Saturday night. Probabilities for 0.25" or more are closer to 50-80% in the coast range and Cascades through this same period. From a pattern recognition standpoint, will at least have to keep an eye on the potential for a few thunderstorms near the Crest as upper level flow turns more southerly late Friday into Saturday too, but models are not particularly bullish on this scenario at this time. Ensembles increasingly favor a return of upper level ridging late Sunday into the beginning of next week, with temperatures trending back upward and precipitation chances trending downward as a result. That said, ensembles favor a progressive pattern late in the period and show another trough pushing into the Pacific Northwest around the middle to end of next week with surprisingly good agreement between deterministic guidance. -Schuldt/CB

AVIATION
VFR flying conditions expected inland throughout the period. Areas of fog or low stratus may develop overnight, yielding a 10-20% chance of MVFR cigs or restricted vis, most likely along the Cascade foothills. Winds will continue out of the northwest to north at around 5 kt. Along the coast, periods of MVFR cigs within marine stratus are favored through 09Z Wed, and there is a 10-30% chance of restricted vis within mist or light drizzle, particularly at ONP. Skies will trend clearer after 09Z Wed, favoring VFR cigs through the remainder of the period.
Northwest winds at 5-10 kt will diminish to 5 kt or less out of the north after 03-06Z Wed, then increase back to 5-10 kt out of the northwest with occasional gusts above 15 kt after 18Z Wed.

PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the period with few-sct clouds at 5-6 kft giving way to clearing skies overnight. Some low stratus or patchy fog/mist may develop, most likely from 12-15Z Wed, resulting in a 10-20% chance of MVFR cigs, and a less than 5% chance of restricted vis. Winds will continue at around 5 kt out of the northwest. -Picard

MARINE
High pressure returns in the wake of a cold front and then remains in place through Friday, resulting in benign conditions with seas under 10 ft and winds generally under 20 kt. That said, northerly winds may briefly gust as high as 21-23 kt for a few hours late Wednesday afternoon and evening over the southern waters.

Another Small Craft Advisory has been issued for a very strong ebb current in the Columbia River Bar for Wed, 4 AM to 10 AM. Ebb chop around 9 ft will be possible, leading to rough bar conditions. -Batz/TK

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ210.