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LMZ346 Manistee To Point Betsie Mi- 1046 Am Est Wed Dec 6 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from 7 pm est this evening through Thursday morning...
Today..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Isolated rain and snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less building to 2 to 3 feet in the afternoon.
Tonight..Southwest wind 10 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Thursday..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday night..South wind 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.

LMZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 061715 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1215 PM EST Wed Dec 6 2023

UPDATE
Issued at 1038 AM EST Wed Dec 6 2023

Remnants of a meso-low working across northern lower Michigan this morning with some flurries/light snow showers. A generally quiet afternoon weatherwise with a few lingering flurries/sprinkles along the Lake Michigan coast and a few snow showers developing over parts of eastern upper. Those snow showers over eastern upper are associated with a fast moving clipper and surface warm front which will slide toward the northern lakes tonight, spreading a light mix of precipitation.
Highest precipitation chances over eastern upper, where up to 1 inch of snow will be possible tonight. Much lighter precipitation south of the bridge.

Highs today in the 30s with mainly cloudy skies.

NEAR TERM
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM EST Wed Dec 6 2023

High Impact Weather Potential...small. Lake effect snow dwindling this morning. Light mixed precip tonight, mainly eastern upper/ne lower MI.

High pressure extends from MO to southern James Bay. Just in advance of this ridge, a mesolow is over far northern Lake MI.
Associated 1000-850mb convergence, in an axis that extends from central upper MI into nw lower MI, has produced (as expected) an uptick in lake effect snow coverage/intensity, especially in nw lower. This axis also marks a subtle 850mb thermal trof (850mb temps to -9C). However, looking upstream, activity is waning on s central Lk Superior.

The mesolow should wash out thru the morning/midday hours today, as the ridge axis presses eastward. Low-level flow will back sw this afternoon, as we get behind the ridge. Low-level warm advection develops and increases today. Will hang onto some reasonable decent pops during the daylight morning hours, especially from Petoskey to GLR and Kalkaska. Those pops wane by midday. Maybe a few showers can push back into Leelanau/Benzie/ Manistee Cos this afternoon, as convergence increases near the coastline in sw flow. Some spots in nw lower MI will pick up a coating of snow, especially in the pre-dawn hours. Coverage/ intensity increases after that. Though precip will erode, clouds are not expected to. In fact, low clouds should expand today just beneath the strengthening inversion. Max temps today again in the 30s.

Tonight, a fast-moving shortwave digs se-ward, just to the n and e of Lk Superior. A surface warm front crosses northern MI from w to e. There is a chance for early evening snow in the north, mainly Chippewa Co. Pops increase tonight, mainly near and north of a line from Petoskey to Harrisville. Highest pops/QPF in eastern upper MI, closer to the better dynamics/ forcing. Progged QPF is less than 0.10", but is highest in far eastern upper MI. Precip initially, and for the bulk of the event, will be snow. Grids have up to an inch of snow in central/eastern Chip Co (including the Sault), less elsewhere.
However, as warmer air aloft surges in, precip could become mixy along its western flank, as the bulk of the precip is departing.
A transition to IP/ZR/RA is possible in spots before exits.
Again, the bulk of the precip will be snow, and do not expect substantial impacts from any late mix. Mostly cloudy tonight, though perhaps clouds decrease late in western Chip/Mack Cos.
Lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s, and relatively early; readings will be climbing before dawn.

SHORT TERM
(Thursday through Friday)
Issued at 330 AM EST Wed Dec 6 2023

High Impact Weather Potential: Snowpack set to erode from abnormal to potentially record warmth.

Pattern Synopsis: Digging trough ejecting from the Rockies will lead to a ridging response over the eastern CONUS, resulting in anomalous ridging overtaking the short term forecast period. 500mb heights set to rise a general +1 sigma above climatological normal. This ridge axis will build directly overhead by Friday, allowing for a subtle but effective pressure gradient between a deep northern stream wave progged to be over Minnesota and surface high pressure over the east coast to become pinched with time, resulting in a deep southwesterly flow over northern Michigan. This will draw in a markedly warmer airmass with time that should reach its zenith through the day Friday.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Thursday cloud cover; MaxTs both days

Lingering cloud cover from the departing WAA wing and associated warm frontal passage (see near term) should gradually be on the decrease form SW to NE through the day Thursday. Realistically, the rising 500mb heights and presence of somewhat drier air should result in a lack of sensible weather across the region. The big question then becomes... where do temperatures in the wake of the warm front lifting past the region? This is a rather tricky forecast particularly for Thursday as the southwesterly flow will be a bit on the weaker side given the pressure gradient won't be entirely pinched at this point. Regardless, it looks like widespread highs in the 40s are possible across the CWA, with the warmer spot being toward Saginaw Bay and west of US 131. In particular, it wouldn't be impossible for TVC, FKS, and mbL to have a sudden leap in temperatures given the potential for clouds to clear earlier in the afternoon during peak heating... so went a little more aggressive there for temperatures... highs in the upper 40s to near 50. The warm advection will carry into the overnight hours, and with flow increasing, temperatures probably struggle to drop much Thursday night. Completely possible for portions of NW lower to remain closer to 40 overnight than the freezing mark, while most areas hover near or perhaps slightly below 32 for the night. The warmth really shows itself Friday, as the southwesterly flow kicks into gear, delivering a more noticeable breeze across the region (S to SW winds 10-15mph, gusts up to 25mph). One thing that could keep temperatures (somewhat) in check will be increasing moisture in the upper levels... and given that we are basically in the sun's least powerful time of year, that may help keep temperatures from completely surging out of control. Regardless, looks like widespread upper 40s to mid 50s are in the cards, with records at the short period of record climate sites (GLR and PLN) potentially coming into play. This warmth will likely deliver a knockout blow to the snowpack across much of the CWA, with the most likely spots to retain something through the short term period being the snowbelt spots.

LONG TERM
(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 AM EST Wed Dec 6 2023

High Impact Weather Potential: Continuing to watch weekend system.

Ejecting wave in the Plains set to undergo surface cyclogenesis and move into the Great Lakes region. Still a fair amount of uncertainty for this setup regarding the exact track of the system... however, the trends from the previous forecast cycle remain somewhat intact.
Thoughts regarding the potential of unsettled weather for the weekend are coming more into focus. Current trends still favor northern Michigan starting on the warmer end of the system as it passes through the Great Lakes, though with colder air surging in behind the system once it passes. How this system tracks will result in various outcomes of precipitation types and intensity. A more amplified and westerly solution (low passes over Lake Michigan)
probably puts us in the warmest possible outcome, with heavy rain potential not out of the question given a closer proximity to deeper moisture. A slightly weaker and more southeast track would probably suppress precipitation potential, and perhaps a quicker and more progressive passage through the region. Just looking at how guidance is handling the cyclone, this has the look of a heavily occluded system once it gets here, an outcome that guidance struggles with considering its affinity for an amplified solution bias. Still tons of details to iron out, but for now, it seems as though a weaker and more southeast solution has a slight edge in the current outcomes.
Still going to hold off on messaging the system in exclusivity given the uncertainties at this current forecast cycle. Should be noted that the airmass int he wake of this system is set to be a bit colder, and pending on how much synoptic moisture is left in the tank, some lake effect processes may try to commence into early next week, so that too may begin to need some monitoring in the coming cycles as well.

AVIATION
(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1208 PM EST Wed Dec 6 2023

Areas of MVFR Cigs through tonight.

Weak clipper system slides north of the area tonight, helping to draw a warm front through northern Michigan. Plenty of low level moisture through tonight, with widespread lower clouds.
MVFR cigs will be most common at the northern terminals (KCIU, KPLN, KAPN), with more common VFR conditions at KTVC and KMBL.
Increasing snow chances at KCIU and possibly KPLN tonight with the approach of the clipper system. Brief periods of IFR vsbys will be possible around snow shower activity.

Wind will become southwest tonight and increase. Gusts over 20kts possible for a time at KMBL.

MARINE
Issued at 330 AM EST Wed Dec 6 2023

Winds will back w and sw today, as a ridge of high pressure moves east across the area. Those winds increase late today into tonight, and winds/waves will reach advisory levels on at least Lake MI, and perhaps on some other waters as well. Will be assessing marine headlines shortly, but do anticipate issuing advisories for at least Lake MI soon.



APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
LH...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Thursday for LHZ349.
LM...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Thursday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
LS...None.

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