Sunrise 5:22 AM   Sunset 8:11 PM Moonrise 11:03 AM   Moonset 1:46 AM

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LMZ346 Manistee To Point Betsie Mi- 247 Pm Edt Tue May 14 2024
Tonight - Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 to 3 feet subsiding to 2 feet or less after midnight. Wednesday - North wind 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Wednesday night - East wind 10 to 15 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less. Thursday - South wind 5 to 10 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.

LMZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 142334 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 734 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Localized patchy frost possible tonight and again Wednesday night.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 241 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

Pattern Synopsis:

Weak flow through the profile will remain in place tonight through Wednesday. This comes as a result of the Great Lakes being sandwiched between features: northern stream troughing lifting further across Quebec tonight, and southern stream troughing working across the Gulf Coast into Wednesday. At the surface, high pressure will gradually build eastward across Hudson Bay, nosing into the Great Lakes throughout the period.

Forecast Details:

Localized patchy frost possible tonight -- Cloud-free skies and weak winds are expected across northern Michigan tonight into Wednesday morning. Any lingering wildfire smoke will still allow for efficient cooling in these conditions as it is transparent to outgoing longwave radiation. While lows in the upper 30s and low 40s are anticipated for most areas, typical localized cold spots across interior areas may see temperatures dip into the low to mid 30s -- leading to the potential for patchy frost. Low confidence in widespread low/mid 30s temperatures for any more substantial duration late tonight/early Wednesday morning precludes frost headlines at this time. Otherwise, rain-free weather and sunny skies will continue across the area on Wednesday, with the potential for light concentrations of wildfire smoke to linger overhead. Highs in the upper 60s and low 70s are anticipated for most, with cooler temperatures in the low to mid 60s near the lakeshores.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 241 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

Pattern/synopsis: Fairly warm pattern through much of the long term portion of the forecast. There will be at least a couple of chances for rounds of showers and possible thunderstorms.

Forecast: Uneventful weather continues into the day Thursday. Shower and possible thunderstorm chances increase Thursday night and especially on Friday (likely pops). This will be from moisture advection via a system currently evident on water vapor imagery across the northern Rockies. The first half of the weekend looks mainly rain free (only slight chance pops) with better rain chances returning Saturday night and Sunday, possibly lingering into Monday.
This would be from a northern stream short wave possibly rotating through a long wave trough located across southern Canada.
Temperatures are expected to be near to slightly above normal Thursday and Friday and potentially several degrees above normal this weekend into early next week. Some extended guidance has highs soaring well into the 70s and even some 80s Saturday and/or Sunday (most likely tied to the amount of cloud cover). Perhaps not quite as warm early next week. One more chilly night (Wednesday) when a touch of frost is possible in the normal colder low lying spots.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 733 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

VFR through the period under high pressure. Light, generally north to northeast surface winds.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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Gaylord, MI,