Monday, December9, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Milton, VT

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 4:14PM Monday December 9, 2019 4:17 PM EST (21:17 UTC) Moonrise 3:55PMMoonset 5:16AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Milton, VT
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location: 44.64, -73.09     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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FXUS61 KBTV 092102 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 402 PM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

SYNOPSIS. Occasional showers with areas of patchy fog will persist overnight with temperatures holding steady in the upper 30s to mid 40s. After a warm start on Tuesday, a cold front will sweep across the region and bring cooler temperatures and scattered mountain snow showers. Temperatures start in the mid 40s to near 50, but drop back into the 30s by evening. Scattered snow showers and much cooler temperatures will prevail on Wednesday with highs in the 20s to lower 30s.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. As of 336 PM EST Monday . Water vapor shows progressive southwest flow aloft prevailing with enhanced deeper moisture advecting ahead of s/w energy from the Ohio Valley into the NE Conus. Radar shows expanding light rain showers acrs most of the fa, but as 925mb to 850mb wind fields continue to strengthen again this evening, expect downslope shadowing to prevail acrs the cpv. NAM 3km shows 925mb winds increasing to 40 to 50 knots with enhanced channeling in the valley, while 850mb low level jet couplet of 55 to 70 knots angles acrs central/southern VT btwn 21z- 03z. Soundings show much greater stability this evening, with limited mixing potential, so a few localized gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range is possible. The combination of snow pack and precip will limit mixing. Next question will bl stay well enough mixed to limit fog development as warm/moist air moves over relatively cold snow pack. Soundings profiles show more stratus type profiles over northern NY with 1000 to 2000 feet winds of 25 to 35 knots, while shallow inversion and saturated bl conditions will help with areas of fog/br development in central/eastern and northern VT zones. Lows generally remain steady or rise overnight with readings upper 30s to mid 40s most locations. Some locations in the CPV and SLV could be near 50f overnight into early Tues. QPF ranges from 0.10 PBG/BTV to 0.75 high peaks into eastern upslope regions of the central/southern Greens.

Tuesday . Sharp cold front will be approaching the SLV by 12z, as deeper 850 to 500mb moisture fields are shifting into eastern New England. Any lingering showers should be confined mainly to our eastern CWA in the morning, with a brief period of scattered rain showers associated with fropa btwn 15z-21z Tues. Areal coverage/intensity of precip will be limited on Tues, due to the lack of deep moisture profiles. Temps will start out mild with readings in the mid 40s to lower 50s, but fall sharply during the aftn hours as moderate low level caa develops on brisk westerly winds. Sounding indicating better mixing profiles, especially slv, so have placed mention of localized gusts up to 30 knots in fcst, especially in favorable aligned flow. Tues night llvl caa continues with some trrn focused snow showers. Temps drop back into the teens and 20s.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. As of 400 PM EST Monday . An upper level short wave will pass the North Country on Wednesday, manifesting in a surface low to the north. As the low passes to the north, a weak cold front will cross the region during the afternoon and winds will shift from southerly to westerly - becoming favorable for lake effect snow. Though little synopic ascent is present with this system, the surface front paired with lake moisture will support the development of snow showers during the afternoon and evening. Some high-res models indiciate a narrow band of frontogenesis along with weak instability (CAPE values of 30-50 J/kg) across northern NY and some portions of northern VT. Therefore, snow squalls are a possibility late Wednesday afternoon and evening, especially across northern NY, with snow accumulations of 1-3 inches. Chances of precipitation will dwindle overnight as winds become northerly and cold, dry air moves in early Thursday morning ahead of an approaching surface high. High temperatures on Wednesday will be near 30 with overnight lows dropping to the teens and single digits.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 400 PM EST Monday . A surface high will settle across the region on Thursday allowing for some sunshine, though temperatures will remain chilly with highs in the teens and 20s, and overnight lows dropping to single digits in some places. Friday morning, winds will increase and become southwesterly with the approach of a surface low from the west. The subsequent warm air advection will increase cloudiness and bump high temperatures up to the low 30s, but conditions will remain dry.

A coastal low pressure system approaches the Northeast on Saturday, bringing the potential for numerous hazards. Widespread precip will begin as snow Saturday morning, but as temperatures increase throughout the day, accumulating mixed precipitation and rain are possible. Precipitation will continue through Sunday, becoming more scattered, though the threat of mixed precip remains. Downslope winds are also a concern along the western side of the Green Mountains on Saturday as breezy easterly winds are expected ahead of the approaching low. Because of the duration of the event, hydro-related concerns also exist for the weekend, and will be monitored more closely as the weekend approaches. Uncertainty remains regarding precip type for the weekend event and will be reassessed through the coming week.

AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Through 18Z Tuesday . Crnt obs at our taf sites show mvfr at btv/mpv with vfr elsewhere. Expecting occasional rain showers to impact sites this aftn/evening with cigs trending toward ifr at mpv and mvfr at rut/mss/slk. Strong downslope component in the low level wind fields will keep pbg mainly vfr thru 00z. The 925mb to 850mb winds are expected to increase again aft 21z this aftn, resulting in additional areas of wind shear and turbulence, especially rut/mpv/pbg and btv, where axis of winds are the strongest. Intervals of ifr/lifr vis is likely in areas of patchy fog this evening into the overnight hours, especially as warm air moves over relatively cold snow pack, but areal coverage is uncertain given the strong wind fields. Cold front with wind shift to the west occurs btwn 14z-18z on Tues, with increasing cigs/vis behind fropa.

Outlook .

Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN. Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN. Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHSN. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN. Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. VT . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . Taber NEAR TERM . Taber SHORT TERM . Hammond LONG TERM . Hammond AVIATION . Taber


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Burlington, Burlington International Airport, VT12 mi24 minS 79.00 miLight Rain41°F37°F89%1006.3 hPa
Plattsburgh International Airport , NY20 mi25 minSSE 910.00 miLight Rain40°F39°F97%1005.4 hPa
Franklin County State Airport, VT21 mi23 minSE 710.00 miLight Drizzle46°F40°F81%1005.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBTV

Wind History from BTV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS17
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1 day agoCalmCalmNW6CalmSE3SE3S3SE3CalmS3CalmCalmE3CalmE3CalmS9S20
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2 days agoN3N6N5N13
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N5NW10NW6NW7NW4NW5NW5NW7Calm3NE4CalmNE3NW8W9NW7NW6N5N5N4

Tide / Current Tables for Sorel, Quebec
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Sorel
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Mon -- 04:19 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:48 AM EST     0.88 meters High Tide
Mon -- 07:22 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:12 AM EST     0.88 meters Low Tide
Mon -- 01:46 PM EST     0.90 meters High Tide
Mon -- 02:52 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:06 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:27 PM EST     0.89 meters Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.90.90.90.90.90.90.90.90.90.90.90.90.90.90.90.90.90.90.90.90.90.90.9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.