Sunrise 5:58 AM   Sunset 7:47 PM Moonrise 4:36 PM   Moonset 4:50 AM

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SLZ024 Expires:202404201515;;058639 Fzus61 Kbuf 200748 Glfsl
forecast for the saint lawrence river including the thousand islands region national weather service buffalo ny 348 am edt Sat apr 20 2024
slz022-024-201515- saint lawrence river from cape vincent to saint regis 348 am edt Sat apr 20 2024
Today - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. Scattered rain showers this afternoon. Tonight - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Scattered rain showers early. Sunday - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Partly to mostly Sunny. Sunday night - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 5 to 15 knots. A chance of sprinkles overnight. Monday - Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Mainly clear, then becoming partly cloudy. Tuesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of rain showers during the day, then rain showers Tuesday night. Wednesday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Rain showers during the day, then a chance of rain and snow showers Wednesday night.

SLZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBTV 201356 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 956 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

SYNOPSIS
Scattered showers and breezy conditions will continue across the region today. Although Sunday and Monday will trend drier, it will be unseasonably cool, especially Monday. Temperatures will begin to moderate on Tuesday, with rain chances increasing over the middle of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 942 AM EDT Saturday...Steadier precipitation continues across mainly eastern VT as the cold front pushes into NH/MA this morning. This precip will come to an end as drier air works into the region, as evidenced by clearing that has developed across much of northern NY. Sunnier breaks should be short-lived though, as satellite already shows clouds increasing across portions of Ontario and Quebec due to the upper trough and its associated cold pool aloft. Still anticipate showers to develop as the upper trough moves overhead this afternoon, especially over northern/central areas. Lapse rates will be quite steep and low-levels dry, so any heavier showers will be capable of producing brief gusty winds and even some pea-size hail or graupel in addition to a burst of heavier precipitation.
Prevailing precipitation should be rain, but some snow is expected as temperature wet-bulbs down toward the dewpoint, which will remain in the 20s to around 30. Highs will be in the mid 40s to mid 50s. The forecast generally has this all covered, so only real changes were to sky cover and temperatures and dewpoints to incorporate the latest satellite and observation trends. No other changes were needed with this update.

Previous discussion...As a weak frontal boundary continues to move eastward from the region, a quiet and mostly dry morning is expected across the region today as drier air moves in behind the front. A fairly vigorous upper level trough will swing through this afternoon, bringing additional chances for scattered showers, with the greatest chances near the international border. Some of these showers may produce graupel or some pea sized hail, with model soundings show steep lapse rates. The limited moisture available will hinder the potential for measurable precipitation with this system, especially with some drier air at the surface to overcome. Winds will once again be on the breezy side tomorrow, with gusts up to 35 mph possible at the surface. Daytime highs will be on the cool side, with temperatures in the upper 40s and 50s, with northern New York and the northeast Kingdom on the cooler side due to shower activity. Showers will taper off after sunset. Overnight low temperatures will be in the mid 20s to mid 30s, a few degrees below climatological normal for this time of year.

Most of the day on Sunday will be dry, with a frontal boundary moving across the region Sunday evening bringing a chance of some scattered showers. With a tightening pressure gradient, winds will increase throughout the day with gusts up to 30 mph possible in the late afternoon into the evening hours. Daytime high temperatures will climb into the 40s to around 50, with the broader valleys nearing the mid 50s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 349 AM EDT Saturday...Deep, cold shortwave rotates around Hudson Bay strong, cold low across Quebec and northern New England Sunday night. This will deliver a strong cold front with limited moisture and instability for isold/sct rain/snow showers overnight with a decent push of colder air with 925mb temps -6 to -10c by 12z Mon. A chilly, somewhat breezy Monday with deeper valleys in the 40s and some U30s in Mountain valleys.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 349 AM EDT Saturday...Broad WNW upper low flow as Quebec shortwave exits and awaiting next upstream shortwave in the Wed time frame.

Ahead of next system, broad fast SW flow for temperatures to rebound to near or above seasonable levels for Tue.

All 3 global deterministics/ensembles show another system for Wednesday with the GFS a stronger outlier with a 520DM Closed Low and 1004mb Surface while the ECMWF/Canadian show a strong shortwave with potential weak surface low (1011mb) tracking across the area.
Although latest Canadian has trended toward GFS. Both solutions are rather progressive with steady precipitation but GFS has upper low lingering through Thu ngt. Most of the precipitation will be rain but as colder air aloft comes in late Wed-Wed ngt some mountain snow/rain mix.

NBM/WPC guidance has 1/3-1/2 inch with locally higher possible through the period which is manageable across FA according to long range hydrologic ensembles.

Attm...leaning toward ECMWF/Canadian solutions of gradual improving conditions Thu-Fri but cooler than normal Thursday...a few degrees milder than Mon with a rebound to seasonable temperatures on Fri.

AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Through 06Z Sunday...Primarily VFR conditions across all terminals this morning, with the exception of some MVFR ceilings at KRUT. Improvement is expected over the next several hours, with VFR conditions prevailing for most of the forecast period.
Some scattered showers across the region this morning will continue to diminish for a brief period of mostly dry weather, before another round of scattered showers develops this afternoon into the evening (particularly across northern terminals). Some of these heavier showers could bring brief periods of reduced visibilities. Westerly winds will pick up between 15Z and 18Z, with gusts up to 20 knots possible during the afternoon.

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.

Sorel
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Sat -- 04:34 PM EDT     Moonrise
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Sat -- 09:40 PM EDT     1.14 meters Low Tide
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