Parc, NY Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Parc, NY


December 10, 2023 11:04 AM EST (16:04 UTC)
Sunrise 7:18AM   Sunset 4:14PM   Moonrise  5:48AM   Moonset 3:22PM 

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Marine Forecasts
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SLZ024 Expires:202312101600;;216319 Fzus61 Kbuf 100838 Glfsl
forecast for the saint lawrence river including the thousand islands region national weather service buffalo ny 338 am est Sun dec 10 2023
slz022-024-101600- saint lawrence river from cape vincent to saint regis 338 am est Sun dec 10 2023
Today..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Rain showers likely early, then rain late this morning. Rain showers likely this afternoon.
Tonight..Southwest winds less than 10 knots. Rain showers likely early, then snow and rain showers likely late in the evening. Snow after midnight.
Monday..Northwest winds 10 knots or less increasing to 10 to 15 knots. Snow in the morning, then a chance of snow showers in the afternoon.
Monday night..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Partly to mostly cloudy.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers during the day, then a chance of snow and rain showers Tuesday night.
Wednesday..West winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers during the day.
Thursday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy.

SLZ005
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Parc, NY
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Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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FXUS61 KBTV 101432 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 932 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

SYNOPSIS
A strong storm will impact the region Sunday through Monday, bringing initially rain that will transition to a heavy wet snowfall. Travel will be very difficult, especially Sunday night into Monday, including the Monday morning commute. Scattered to widespread power outages are expected. In addition, rivers are expected to rise to near bankfull Sunday night into Monday but the overall threat for flooding has decreased. Quieter weather returns for midweek.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 925 AM EST Sunday...A few minor tweaks needed to fcst this morning based on crnt radar and sfc observations. First was to increase the pops acrs northern NY into parts of the CPV, as radar is showing a rather large area of rain moving from southwest to northeast acrs central/northern NY ahead of sfc boundary. Also, bumped qpf up a bit to capture sfc obs upstream with amounts mostly in the one to three tenths of an inch expected thru 00z today. Otherwise did make some minor adjustments to try and capture our crazy sfc temps. MSS has finally broke out and has warmed to 50F, while east of the Green we have some locations holding in the mid 30s to lower 40s. As mixing improves most locations should warm into the mid 40s to lower 50s, with some areas seeing the mid 50s, before temps coming crashing down tonight.

Speaking of tonight into Monday, have quickly looked at the 12z guidance and some minor changes have been noted, such as the system is a bit faster and slower to deepen, with slightly less potential qpf/snowfall acrs portions of our cwa. However, not anticipating any major changes to fcst, just some minor tweaks maybe needed.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
* 1 to 2 inches per hour snowfall rates are likely during the Monday morning hours across much of Vermont, leading to a treacherous morning commute.
* Gusty northwest winds combined with heavy, wet snow will likely result in scattered to numerous power outages.
* A few rivers across southern VT could exceed bankfull and go into minor flood stage.

It has been a relatively mild night across the region, with portions of the St Lawrence and Champlain valley seeing temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s. Sheltered locations are colder, but still in the upper 30s to low 40s. So expect an unseasonably warm day today with widespread temperatures in the mid 40s to mid 50s, with a few upper 50s not out of the question. RAP mesoanalysis shows a 45-50 kt 850mb jet traversing the region early this morning. And sure enough, Mt Mansfield at 4300 ft is gusting to 45 kt. Portions of the aforementioned valley locales have also seen some of the winds aloft mixed down, hence the surge in temperatures to low 50s overnight.
This jet will move east of our region by around mid day, so winds will become less breezy by the afternoon hours. Expect mostly cloudy to overcast skies with scattered rain showers become more widespread and steady by the afternoon hours. Southerly winds will also make for a breezy, if not blustery day with wind-driven rain. Expect 0.25 to 0.75 inch of rain to fall by early Sunday evening. With dew points surging into the 40s, there will be rather significant snowmelt leading to the loss of snowpack. The combination of rainfall and snowmelt runoff will eventually lead to area river rises by Sunday night into Monday. More details in the hydrology discussion.

Then our attention turns to the incoming snow storm as the moderate to at times heavy rain changes over to heavy, wet snow from west to east. Indeed, we have quite a dynamic system that will impact our region. The warm sector has spawned a severe weather outbreak across portions of the south on Saturday evening. There have even been lightning flashes as far north as Lake Ontario during the overnight hours. The upper atmospheric features that will combine to form our storm are already evident on the IR satellite imagery. The first feature is a southern jet shortwave over the Arklatex region that is associated with a line of strong thunderstorms early this morning.
The second feature is a northern stream energy associated with snow showers over Wisconsin and Michigan. The first shortwave energy will traverse the Dixie Alley before rounding the base of the second shortwave trough, which will become more neutrally tilted by late Sunday evening. As it does so, colder air will be advected into an air mass with PWAT values that are in the 90th percentile of climatology. Forecast soundings indicate an almost fully saturated thermal profile from the surface up to almost 500mb! The intense upward vertical motion as analyzed in the mesoscale guidance means that the isothermal profile will steadily approach and fall below the 0C line from top to bottom, so the northern Champlain valley should flip over quickly from rain to snow sometime after midnight. As increasingly impressive omega becomes colocated with the dendritic snow growth region, we will see a period of 1 to 2 inches per hour snowfall rates that unfortunately will coincide with the Monday early morning commute.

Overall, there is high confidence in widespread 6 to 12 inches of snowfall across much of our CWA, with localized 12 to 18 inches especially in the northern and central Green Mountains of Vermont.
Areas that will receive less snow are across the western and northern portions of St Lawrence valley, as well as southeast Vermont. The former is a little removed from the best dynamics of the system, while the latter will see rain or mixed precipitation on Monday morning before flipping to snow by the afternoon hours. There is now excellent model consensus that a coastal low will develop along the baroclinic zone near Chesapeake Bay late Sunday night, before tracking over Long Island and then near Boston on Monday morning. This track favors accumulating snowfall across our CWA, including the Champlain Valley. Temperatures are expected to remain constant or fall slightly during the day as strong cold air advection continues, with 925mb temperatures falling to -5 to -8C range regionwide by sundown.

Headlines wise, we have converted most of the remaining Winter Storm Watches to Winter Storm Warnings, with the exception of northern St Lawrence county. We also did upgrade eastern Essex county in NY to a Warning. Hydrology wise, we dropped the Flood Watch for Orange county, with the expectation that a colder storm will limit the amount of snowmelt and rainfall runoff for most of North Country.

By Monday late afternoon into evening, as the low pressure center lifts further north and east into northern Maine and maritime Canada, stratiform precipitation will quickly come to an end across northern NY and then VT, transitioning into upslope snow showers.
But as mentioned earlier, with heavy wet snow clinging onto the trees and continued northwest gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range, expect lingering power outages and difficult recovery efforts by utility crew. A silver lining is that the model guidance has trended colder, so SLRs should increase to above 10:1 for most locations across VT by the afternoon hours, which might mitigate the snow loading adverse impacts.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 429 AM EST Sunday...During Monday night, deep surface low will be translating rapidly away from our region across the Gulf of St.
Lawrence with a NW gradient flow in place across the North Country.
Still looking at near-saturated conditions in the dendrite growth layer for several hours Monday evening/first half of Monday night as mid-level trough crosses the North Country from west to east. It appears that orographic snow showers will continue through midnight or so, especially across the central/nrn Green Mtns and the higher terrain of northeastern VT. Included an additional 0.5-1" snow accumulation after 00Z Tuesday across the northern Adirondacks and 1-2" for the higher terrain of the northern Green Mtns. PoPs steadily diminish after midnight with stronger low-level drying expected. Low-level CAA will yield overnight lows in the low-mid 20s across the St. Lawrence Valley, Champlain Valley, and valleys of s-central VT, with generally 15-20F for lows elsewhere.

A narrow surface ridge axis translates from W-E across our region on Tuesday. Should see relatively light winds Tuesday morning, shifting into the S-SW during the afternoon hrs as ridge axis shifts ewd.
Winds of 10-15mph likely during the afternoon, and locally SW 15-25 mph across the St. Lawrence Valley. May see a few lake effect snow flurries across swrn St
Lawrence County on Tuesday aftn
but otherwise precipitation is not expected. Skies generally become partly sunny Tuesday morning with daytime highs in the 34-37F range for most sections.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 429 AM EST Sunday...A cold front pushes through Tuesday night, bringing snow showers with the possibility of a couple embedded snow squalls. There looks to be adequate CAPE ahead of this front but frontogenesis looks to be relatively weak. These ingredients point to the precipitation likely being some heavier convective snow showers that mostly stay below squall criteria. The snow showers will move from nw-se but they look to weaken as they moves across the region so the heaviest showers look to be in northern areas.
After the front passes, Wednesday will feature northwest flow with some snow showers in the favored upslope areas. Snowfall totals will be light with the 90th percentiles based off the NBM keeping totals below 2 inches everywhere from Tuesday night through Wednesday. The rest of the week looks to be mostly dry with the only other precipitation chance being Friday night as a weak front moves through. The GEFS has a solution similar to the Tuesday night precipitation with temperatures a couple degrees higher. The operational Euro keeps that period dry but its ensembles are split on whether there will be precipitation like the GEFS members.
Therefore, put chance PoPs in some areas Friday night. Overall, temperatures look to be close to average with a Friday and Sunday slightly above, and Wednesday and Thursday slightly below.

AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Through 12Z Monday...Expect southwest LLWS of 45 kt at 2000 ft AGL through around 15z. A few sites like BTV are seeing the winds mix down to the surface with southerly winds gusting 20-30 kt. Most sites are currently VFR, with exception of IFR at MSS and MPV. Expect widespread rain to move in between 15z to 18z, with conditions deteriorating to MVFR after 18z with IFR conditions becoming more widespread after 00z. Then after 04z, rain mixes with and changes over to heavy, wet snow with LIFR and VLIFR conditions likely towards the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Definite RA, Definite SN.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Definite SN.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Scattered SHSN.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

HYDROLOGY
Sunday 430 AM UPDATE...With the colder shift, the flood threat for the upcoming storm system Sunday through Monday has continued to decrease. The latest River Forecast Center forecasts are now cresting all rivers below flood stage with the exception of the Otter Creek at Center Rutland, which is forecast to crest at 8.1 feet (Minor Flood Stage) Tuesday. The Flood Watch remains in effect for Rutland and Windsor Counties in Vermont from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon where precipitation is expected to stay as rain through Monday afternoon before changing to snow.

MARINE
Lake wind advisory continues for south winds 15 to 25 knots with localized gusts up to 30 knots possible on the open waters tonight into Sunday. Waves 2 to 5 feet, especially central/northern portions of the lake.

CLIMATE
Record daily precipitation is possible on both Sunday and Monday. Below are current daily records that may be broken based on the current forecast:

December 10: KBTV: 1.10/1938 KMPV: 0.93/1957 KPBG: 0.69/2004 KMSS: 0.86/1953 KSLK: 0.73/1953

December 11: KBTV: 1.43/1952 KMPV: 0.96/1952 KPBG: 0.81/1952

EQUIPMENT
The Burke Mountain NOAA Weather Radio, WWG-50, broadcasting on a frequency of 162.425 MHz is experiencing technical difficulties and is currently off the air. Technicians have advised that parts are needed to conduct repairs, with an estimated return to service on Tuesday, December 12th.

Please refer to local media and commercial radio for the latest weather information. The following nearby NOAA Weather Radio transmitters that can be used include Mount Ascutney on a frequency of 162.475 MHz and Mount Mansfield broadcasting on a frequency of 162.400 MHZ.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Monday for VTZ021.
Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Monday for VTZ001>011-016>020.
Flood Watch from 4 PM EST this afternoon through Monday afternoon for VTZ011-019>021.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Monday for NYZ026-087.
Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Monday for NYZ027>031-034-035.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KPBG PLATTSBURGH INTL,NY 4 sm71 minSE 1110 smOvercast48°F43°F81%29.79
KBTV BURLINGTON INTL,VT 20 sm70 minS 1110 smOvercast54°F45°F71%29.82
KFSO FRANKLIN COUNTY STATE,VT 24 sm29 minS 10G2210 smOvercast55°F48°F77%29.78

Wind History from PBG
(wind in knots)


Tide / Current for Sorel, Quebec
   
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Sorel
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Sun -- 04:51 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:10 AM EST     0.94 meters High Tide
Sun -- 07:23 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:15 AM EST     0.94 meters Low Tide
Sun -- 01:36 PM EST     0.96 meters High Tide
Sun -- 02:16 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:06 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:13 PM EST     0.95 meters Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Sorel, Quebec, Tide feet
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Burlington, VT,



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