Wednesday, February24, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Honor, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:33AMSunset 5:33PM Wednesday February 24, 2021 12:21 PM CST (18:21 UTC) Moonrise 3:18PMMoonset 6:16AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ345 Expires:202102250000;;051616 Fzus53 Kapx 241600 Nshapx Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord Mi 1100 Am Est Wed Feb 24 2021 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lakes Huron... Michigan And Superior. Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lmz344-345-250000- Sleeping Bear Point To Grand Traverse Light Mi- Point Betsie To Sleeping Bear Point Mi- 1100 Am Est Wed Feb 24 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Today..North wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Rain, snow and drizzle likely early, then chance of drizzle and snow in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 4 to 6 feet in the afternoon.
Tonight..Northwest wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Chance of flurries. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Thursday..West wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday night..West wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ345


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Honor, MI
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location: 44.69, -86     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 241815 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 115 PM EST Wed Feb 24 2021

UPDATE. Issued at 1109 AM EST Wed Feb 24 2021

Morning composite analysis reveals low amplitude short-wave troughing moving through the western Great Lakes. Attendant 1002 mb surface low is moving through northern/central Lower Michigan, centered over Oscoda as of 15Z, with a cold front that stretches SW down through Illinois and secondary boundary back through Wisconsin. Frontogenetically forced corridor of precipitation along the northern side of the low continues to fall across the tip of the mitt/Straits/eastern Upper Michigan. Axis of heaviest snowfall with this system set up through the tip of the mitt into Mackinac county with 3 to 5 inches of accumulation per reports so far. With warmer surface temps, actually had a bit of rain mixed in through the night near Lake Michigan and minimal snow accumulation across parts of NW Lower Michigan.

Rest of today: Ongoing heavier snowfall through the Straits/northern Lake Huron will diminish over the next couple of hours . and plan is to allow the remaining part of the advisory to expire at noon. But, secondary cold front will slide E/S through the region through the afternoon hours bringing one final corridor of light precip through the CWA and probably some light lake induced precip as low level temps fall off behind the front. But with temps hovering above freezing early on across northern Lower MI, precip may again be a bit mixy although colder air will be chasing the light precip behind the front before the transition to light lake effect.

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 301 AM EST Wed Feb 24 2021

Impactful weather: Accumulating system snow through this morning. Wet slippery snow making travel hazardous for areas mainly north of M-32, including eastern upper Michigan.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

A positively tilted shortwave and associated sfc low were crossing the upper Mississippi valley early this morning, with widespread snow seen around the low pressure, and ahead of it's warm front from nrn WI/western upper Michigan. This snow was spreading eastward into eastern upper and nrn lower Michigan. Forcing was fairly impressive, with DPVA and some upper jet divergence joining with low to mid level FGEN and impressive theta-e convergence on the nose of a 40- 50kt LLJ. Some light rain was falling at times in portions of NW lower Michigan. Upstream, there was another much weaker wave and sfc low seen moving toward srn Manitoba. This system was only producing some patchy light snow.

The snow will continue to expand into areas mainly north of M-72 in nrn lower, including eastern upper Michigan, amd will pick up in intensity for areas north of M-32. Any rain will likely quickly turn over to just snow. Snowfall rates are likely to exceed an inch per hour at times due to the good forcing and FGEN. Pretty much all of the snow accumulation will be completed through this morning, as the deeper moisture and forcing will have shifted east of here. Also, temperatures climbing into the mid and upper 30s will allow a little light rain to be reintroduced to any remnant precipitation. Total snowfall still looks to be 3-6 inches north of M-32, with the maximum snow focused around the Straits region. This still lines up well with the ongoing Winter Weather Advisory, so no headlines changes or alterations. Amounts drop off real quick to the south, with the M-55 corridor only seeing a few tenths, if they can even get that. Latest radar trends suggest this area may get no accumulation.

Behind the departing low pressure, NNW develop over the area and become gusty. These winds will draw in much drier air to nrn Michigan, which will likely result in some decent clearing tonight. And, despite cold advection and growing, but barely marginal, overlake instability, fcst soundings are nowhere near suggesting any lake effect snow development. Looks like, at best, maybe some flurries could float around in the NNW/NW flow regimes, but I even doubt that if the soundings are correct.

The upstream weaker wave and sfc low low trot into Lake Superior late tonight, but any chance of snow with that looks to hold off until Thursday. Maybe a little light snow sneaks into far western sections of Chip/Mack counties in eastern upper by daybreak.

Highs today will be in the upper 30s to some lower 40s in downsloping areas of NE lower. Lows tonight will largely be in the middle to upper 20s.

SHORT TERM. (Thursday through Friday) Issued at 301 AM EST Wed Feb 24 2021

High impact weather potential: Minimal.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: By early Thursday, weak troughing is expected to be draped overhead with the primary focus through the short term forecast revolving around a weak/subtle shortwave rippling across the region late in the day. This weak disturbance may prove to be enough to kick off some light snow shower activity across northern Michigan before exiting stage right Thursday evening. Beyond this, mid-upper level ridging gradually replaces aforementioned troughing with attendant low-level warm air advection becoming the rule Thursday night through Friday.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Minor snow chances Thursday.

As was alluded to above, the primary focus revolves around a weak disturbance that's expected to quickly race west to east across the forecast area during the day Thursday. While moisture fields look paltry and synoptic forcing leaves a lot to be desired, latest trends continue to suggest at least scattered/light snow shower development across sections of northern lower and eastern upper Michigan before any lingering support exits to the east Thursday evening. Any new accumulation should be minimal - under half an inch - especially given what may be combined with peeks of sunshine and an increasing late-February sun angle aiding to prevent much in the way of accumulation. High temps Thursday ranging from the upper 20s far north the low-mid 30s across northern lower.

Little in the way of sensible weather is expected Thursday night through Friday as mid-upper level ridging folds into the region from the west. Low-level warm air advection should provide a nice surface temperatures response for Friday under a mix of sun and clouds with daytime high temperatures rising into the upper 30s for most.

LONG TERM. (Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 301 AM EST Wed Feb 24 2021

High impact weather potential: Minimal for now.

Progressive and increasingly amplified upper-levels are expected to result in occasional precip chances through the extended. While no specific window looks more high impact than another at this point, the initial potential for this arrives Saturday and again late Sunday into Sunday night. Additional waves and associated precip chances expected to follow this through the middle of next week. Low confidence prevails in each of these systems, their evolution, and any associated impacts locally, but certainly something to keep an eye on as we head through the end of the week for at least some periods of wintry weather.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) Issued at 114 PM EST Wed Feb 24 2021

Low pressure continues to move through the region, now over central Lake Huron as of 17Z. Secondary cold front with the system is swinging through northern Lower Michigan now . producing one final axis of heavier snowfall. PLN/TVC will see IFR/LIFR conditions through around 20Z with heavier snow. APN gets it between 20Z and 22Z.

After that, colder air and some light lake effect with MVFR conditions anticipated later this afternoon into tonight. VFR conditions anticipated to return overnight into Thursday.

MARINE. Issued at 301 AM EST Wed Feb 24 2021

Deepening low pressure in the upper Mississippi valley will cross nrn Michigan this morning, before departing east by this evening. Light and variable winds will increase and become gusty to advisory levels out of the NNW for all nearshores out of the NNW this afternoon into tonight. The pressure gradient relaxes Thursday and Thursday night, allowing winds to drop below advisory levels.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until midnight EST tonight for LHZ345-346- 349. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 4 AM EST Thursday for LHZ347-348. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until midnight EST tonight for LMZ323-341- 342-344>346. LS . NONE.

UPDATE . BA NEAR TERM . SMD SHORT TERM . MG LONG TERM . MG AVIATION . BA MARINE . SMD


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 35 mi42 min N 19 G 23 34°F 1008.8 hPa
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 43 mi42 min NNE 22 G 26 36°F 1007.5 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI12 mi27 minN 7 G 184.00 miLight Snow33°F29°F85%1007.1 hPa
Cherry Capital Airport, MI22 mi29 minNNW 10 G 191.75 miLight Snow Fog/Mist33°F30°F89%1006.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFKS

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW7SW8W5SW8SW5SW7SW5SW6SW6SW4SW5CalmCalmCalmE6E4E3NE4CalmCalmCalmNW10
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2 days agoS9S9S9
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.