Thursday, August6, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Honor, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:43AMSunset 8:09PM Thursday August 6, 2020 8:35 PM CDT (01:35 UTC) Moonrise 9:57PMMoonset 8:27AM Illumination 90% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ345 Point Betsie To Sleeping Bear Point Mi- Manistee To Point Betsie Mi- 302 Pm Edt Thu Aug 6 2020
Tonight..Light winds. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..South wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..South wind 10 to 20 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ345 Expires:202008070315;;033410 FZUS53 KAPX 061902 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 302 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ345-346-070315-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Honor, MI
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location: 44.69, -86     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 070104 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 904 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020

UPDATE. Issued at 905 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020

Lake-breeze induced cu/altocu and some associated showers have lingered a little longer into the evening than earlier planned. Not much in the way of precip left in eastern upper MI, except for maybe a sprinkle or two in Luce Co. A few showers remain in ne lower MI, in the Pigeon River country. These should be gone by 11 pm. Associated cloud remnants could last another 1-2 hours.

Still reasonable to expect some fog/stratus to reform overnight in eastern upper MI - aided by a rain-cooled airmass in some spots. Indeed, the same may be the case in far northern/ne lower MI, and will add a mention of fog from Cheboygan Co to Alpena Co.

Temps look reasonable.

NEAR TERM. (Through Friday) Issued at 253 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: 16z surface/composite analysis shows high pressure extending from Wisconsin/Illinois eastward into southern New England with a 1022mb center over central Lower Michigan. Water vapor imagery shows several vorticity centers rotating across and around Michigan . once moving into the Thumb region with some hints of a second over southern Wisconsin with a broad area of implied upward motion across much of Lower Michigan. Also a pair of vorticity centers dropping southeast across Lake Superior . leading edge of forcing with these features across Upper michigan and sliding toward far northern Lower Michigan. Seeing a few showers pop along the lake breeze across Cheboygan/Presque Isle counties . and some building cloud tops across eastern Upper though no indications of glaciation just yet. Axis of 60+F dew points over Lake Michigan and through the Straits region feeding an axis of shallow instability driving this shower development. Broken cumulus field across much of the forecast area away from the stabilizing influence of the Great Lakes.

Short wave troughing over Lake Superior will continue to track southeast tonight across the forecast area . while surface ridge continues to extend back across Lower Michigan. Surface pattern configuration doesn't change much Friday while short wave ridging builds into the upper Lakes (interesting that NAM-WRF looks like its having a bit of a model convective gravity wave explosion over Minnesota during the day).

Primary Forecast Concerns: Late afternoon/evening showers across eastern Upper and through the tip of the mitt counties . and should fade later this evening with loss of heating. Given axis of better low level moisture across eastern Upper and with light winds tonight may see some fog development similar to this morning. Thursday at this point looks pretty good with ridging at the surface and aloft. The warmup should continue with more widespread highs in the 80-85 degree range.

SHORT TERM. (Friday night through Sunday) Issued at 253 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020

. Continued Warmth with Increasing Humidity .

High Impact Weather Potential . Low.

Forecast Concerns . Whether or not to include pops Saturday.

Heights continue to slowly build into Saturday with a nearly zonal flow aloft developing to end the weekend. Instability remains on the low side Saturday so will continue to run with the rain free forecast. A short wave and possible mesoscale convective complex moving through the flow Saturday night into Sunday will increase chances for showers and slight chances for thunderstorms. Humidity will be on the rise as well. One more comfortable night with lows in the mid to upper 50s Friday night then warm and muggy Saturday night with lows in the mid and upper 60s. Highs for both Saturday and Sunday in the low and mid 80s.

LONG TERM. (Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 253 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020

. Warm and Humid then Less Humid and not Quite as Warm .

High Impact Weather Potential . Low.

A long wave trough moving across northern Canada looks like it will drag a surface cold front across the region Monday likely spawning showers and thunderstorms. The front is expected to usher in not quite as warm and less humid conditions into mid-week before more building ridging/heat toward the end of next week. Forecast temperatures will be a few degrees above normal through the period. Overall, it looks like a very warm pattern will be in place well into August.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 723 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020

VFR, though some shallow ground fog might form overnight.

A few showers continue to decay over ne lower and eastern upper MI, and will be in the vicinity of APN for another hour or so. Less in the way of cu is expected on Friday, as warmer and relatively drier air works in from the sw. Not out of the question for patchy ground fog overnight, with mbL the most likely TAF site to see fog.

Light/variable winds.

MARINE. Issued at 253 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020

Surface ridge extending across Lower Michigan will keep winds on the light side through Friday . with some lake breeze development likely within the Lake Huron nearshore zones. Some fog overnight also possible on Whitefish Bay and along the St. Mary's River. Headline conditions not expected through Friday night . increasing southwest winds may bring small craft conditions to Lake Michigan nearshore zones Saturday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . NONE. LM . NONE. LS . NONE.

UPDATE . JZ NEAR TERM . JPB SHORT TERM . AS LONG TERM . AS AVIATION . JZ MARINE . JPB


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45183 22 mi66 min W 7.8 G 7.8 68°F 67°F1 ft
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 35 mi56 min SSW 4.1 G 4.1 66°F 1020.7 hPa
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 43 mi56 min WSW 8 G 8.9 78°F 1019.6 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 52 mi56 min S 4.1 G 6 68°F 1020.7 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI12 mi41 minN 010.00 miFair67°F60°F80%1019.6 hPa
Cherry Capital Airport, MI22 mi43 minW 610.00 miA Few Clouds72°F48°F44%1018.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFKS

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3SW3SW4SW4SW8SW6SW8SW7SW7W8W7W5SW3Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--NW5W7W8W5W8W5W6W4W3CalmW3Calm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmN4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3N3N3NE5N6N9
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.