Wednesday, December11, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Honor, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 4:13PM Wednesday December 11, 2019 2:52 PM CST (20:52 UTC) Moonrise 4:55PMMoonset 7:24AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ345 Point Betsie To Sleeping Bear Point Mi- Manistee To Point Betsie Mi- 1019 Am Est Wed Dec 11 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Today..West wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Periods of snow showers in the afternoon, then scattered snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Tonight..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Isolated snow showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday..South wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Snow showers likely and showers. Waves 5 to 8 feet.
Thursday night..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Chance of drizzle. Waves 5 to 8 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ345 Expires:201912112330;;194403 FZUS53 KAPX 111519 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1019 AM EST Wed Dec 11 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ345-346-112330-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Honor, MI
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Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 111713 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1213 PM EST Wed Dec 11 2019

UPDATE. Issued at 1033 AM EST Wed Dec 11 2019

Weak wave is making its way eastward away from Lake Superior late this morning. Lake aggregate troughing is maintaining some low level convergence to boost ongoing lake effect snow production despite loss of limited synoptic support. Low level winds and thus lake band orientation has shifted to a more straight westerly trajectory behind the weak wave. Overall intensities have diminished . but the combination of small flake size due to a very cold airmass and winds gusting to 30 kt is resulting in brief drops in vsby to 1/4SM or less under any of the more enhanced snow bands. Chippewa county will likely see several additional inches of snow for the remainder of the day . and the snowbelt areas of NW Lower Michigan will likely only see another inch or two. But the combination of falling/blowing snow periodically reducing vsbys to 1/4SM or less along with gusty winds and very cold temps warrants the extension of all headlines across NW Lower Michigan . as well as the addition of Otsego county into the mix based on latest radar and near term model trends. Will also leave headlines for Chippewa county in tact thru this evening.

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 237 AM EST Wed Dec 11 2019

. Lake snows and cold to continue .

High impact weather potential: Cold temperatures with accumulating lake snows.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: Talk about stating the obvious, but well advertised shot of Arctic air now fully entrenched across the northern Great Lakes, as evident by current readings in the single digits and teens, with wind chill values several degrees colder yet. Trough responsible for this shot of cold centered north/south right through the heart of the region, with embedded shortwave and secondary shot of even colder air dropping southeast into the northwest Lakes. Despite basically non-existent synoptic support, maintenance of extreme over-water thermal gradient and lake-induced equilibrium levels up near 10kft continues to result in lake effect snow showers. Cloud-bearing flow has backed more southwesterly in response to that next approaching wave . targeting the Tip of the Mitt counties for the most organized snow showers. As for our eastern upper snow belt locations . land breezes and development of weak low pressure across the eastern basin of Lake Superior has punted lake snows well north of Whitefish Point.

Coldest temperatures anomalies will pivot quickly east across the area this morning as that upstream wave does the same. Upper jet streak rotating out of the northern Plains will keep the mid and upper level flow environment progressive, booting core of coldest air off to our east tonight, with temperatures steadily recovering the rest of the week. Lake snows continue today, subsiding tonight as warm air advection commences ahead of weak low pressure racing east across the northern Plains (which will likely bring some more accumulating snow to at least parts of the area Thursday).

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Progression and impacts from lake effect snow showers and attendant headline considerations.

Details: Southwest flow early this morning will veer more westerly, to even a bit northwest, with passage of that upstream wave and attendant surface trough. This will once again punt the more organized lake snows south into our traditional snow belt locations. Best lake snow parameters will be found across Lake Superior this morning and early afternoon, with better synoptic moisture contribution and lake-induced convective depths up and over 10kft (lake-induced cape over 1k joules/kg). Would expect enhanced convergence along surface trough to drive band of heavier snows quickly south into northern Chippewa county this morning (perhaps impacting Sault Ste. Marie), with more traditional multi-banding structures impacting the area later this morning into the afternoon. Could easily see another 3 to 6 inches, locally higher, especially along and north of M-28. Gusty winds will also yield pockets of blowing snow, especially across north-south oriented roadways.

Not quite the same story for northern lower Michigan, with much less synoptic contribution and gradually lowering convective depths. This will definitely throttle back on snowfall intensity some, and given those veering wind profiles keeping any organized bands transient, can't really see much more than and additional 1 to 3 inches in northwest lower Michigan. Lighter snow showers and flurries elsewhere. Much like eastern upper, expect gusty winds to produce some blowing and drifting snow, especially in those more open and exposed areas.

As for headlines . Will let inherited advisories and warnings run their course for northern lower Michigan, with at least a few inches of additional snow expected through this morning. Given expected increase in snows across the snow belts of Chippewa county, along with some blowing and drifting snow, will go ahead and issue a advisory for the northern sections of that county today into this evening.

Would expect a downward trend in snow showers heading into this evening as warm air advection develops and the atmosphere further drys out. Could still some some minor snow accumulations early this evening, particularly across northern Chippewa county. Elevated moisture from approaching clipper system arrives toward morning, likely reorganizing the lake processes a bit near the Lake Michigan coast up into the Straits. May even see the beginning stages of warm air advection driven light snow punch into the area, although trends continue to support most of this activity holding off until the daylight hours of Thursday.

Well below normal temperatures today, with highs only in the middle and upper teens (normal highs in the lower 30s), with wind chill readings at least a few degrees below zero. Remain cold tonight, with lows in the single digits and lower teens.

SHORT TERM. (Thursday through Friday) Issued at 237 AM EST Wed Dec 11 2019

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal

. Another Clipper on Thursday to produce a few inches .

Synopsis/Forecast: A wave currently coming onshore in British Columbia will sink southeast through Wednesday, ending up over Wisconsin by midday Thursday. This helps spin up a surface low in the central Plains, which will also be supported by a 100 kt jet right entrance region through the day. This becomes a quick-hitting clipper for our area Thursday.

Details/concerns: We'll be on the backside of a surface high early Thursday, allowing moist and milder air to flow north over us. As the clipper approaches the area our winds turn more out of the south- southeast. Isentropic lift out ahead of the warm front combined with deep -DivQ ahead of the shortwave will help spread an area of snow from west to east across the area late in the morning, continuing through the afternoon. Guidance suggests the highest snowfall (on the order of 2 to 4 inches) falls in northwest lower to ern upper. This is where the better dynamics and moisture will reside. Through the day slightly warmer air moves, pushing forecast soundings out of the DGZ. Omega is better during the late morning through mid afternoon, helping support better snow intensity, then this diminishes heading into the evening. A few snow showers may linger through Thursday night, but this is unlikely given the loss of mid level moisture and the continued warming through the night. Friday morning another compact weak low treks east out of the Dakotas. The exact track of this system seems a little uncertain as of now, but it looks to miss us to the northeast, with the best dynamics and moisture well removed from our area. Even so some light flurries and/or freezing drizzle may be possible through the afternoon. Then better snow chances return Friday night as profiles more fully saturate.

Temperatures rise through Thursday night into Friday thanks to WAA. Friday's highs are expected to be a couple degrees above normal.

LONG TERM. (Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 237 AM EST Wed Dec 11 2019

High Impact Weather: Minimal

Through the weekend general troughiness takes over Ontario through the Great Lakes, with the potential for a strong nor'easter impacting the northeast. We remain in northwest flow late Saturday afternoon through Sunday, and colder low to midlevel air pours into the region behind the New England system. Increasing overlake instability will bring more chances for lake effect Saturday and Sunday. High pressure move in Sunday night into Monday, bringing a lull in lake effect intensity. After this there's potential for a strong system to ride up through the Ohio Valley, and while it's far out, we could see gusty winds and more synoptic snow as this crosses to our southeast. Even with the slight warm up on Saturday, the rest of the period will run a couple degrees below normal.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) Issued at 1213 PM EST Wed Dec 11 2019

Residual lake effect snow showers and resulting IFR conditions will persist this afternoon into early evening before coming to an end later tonight as high pressure and drier air build into the region Also. winds will begin to back later tonight in advance of our next low pressure system . which will bring renewed chances of snow and MVFR/IFR conditions to all of Northern Lower Michigan on Thursday. Winds will remain from the west at 15 to 25 kts with higher gusts thru early evening . and will then diminish to AOB 10 kts as it shift to the SW and eventually to the SE by Thursday.

MARINE. Issued at 237 AM EST Wed Dec 11 2019

Gusty winds will continue through this morning, gradually diminishing from west to east this afternoon and evening. Another period of small craft advisory producing winds expected to develop on Thursday, this time from the south and southeast, as weak low pressure moves into the northern Lakes.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ021- 022-099. WINTER STORM WARNING until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ016-017. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 10 PM EST this evening for MIZ086- 087. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 1 AM EST Thursday for LHZ345>349. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 1 AM EST Thursday for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346. LS . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 1 AM EST Thursday for LSZ321-322.

UPDATE . MR NEAR TERM . mb SHORT TERM . STJ LONG TERM . STJ AVIATION . MR MARINE . mb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 35 mi72 min W 15 G 18 14°F 1029.1 hPa
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 43 mi54 min W 25 G 25 17°F 1027.1 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 52 mi52 min W 14 G 25 14°F 1030.1 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI12 mi56 minWSW 94.00 miLight Snow12°F5°F75%1028.4 hPa
Cherry Capital Airport, MI22 mi59 minW 82.50 miLight Snow13°F6°F74%1028.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFKS

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmCalmN6N7N10
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2 days agoSW8W5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3E3NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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