Monday, December9, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Pilgrim, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 4:13PM Monday December 9, 2019 3:54 PM CST (21:54 UTC) Moonrise 3:51PMMoonset 5:14AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ366 Expires:201912100415;;104599 Fzus63 Kmkx 092030 Glflm Open Lake Forecast For Lake Michigan National Weather Service Milwaukee/sullivan Wi 230 Pm Cst Mon Dec 9 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan. Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10% Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered.
Synopsis.. A low pressure of 29.3 inches across northern lower michigan will pull further away tonight dragging an arctic front through the region. Strong north to northwest winds will develop in the wake of the cold front and persist overnight. Winds will gradually diminish and though breezy west winds will linger into Tuesday. The much colder airmass will lead to freezing spray at times through mid-week && lmz261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868-100415- lake michigan from seul choix point to rock island passage 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan south of a line from seul choix point to the mackinac bridge and north of a line from charlevoix mi to south fox island 5 nm offshore- lake michigan from charlevoix to point betsie mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from point betsie to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from rock island passage to sturgeon bay wi- lake michigan from sturgeon bay to two rivers wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from two rivers to sheboygan wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from pentwater to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 230 pm cst Mon dec 9 2019 sheboygan wi to pentwater mi north...
Tonight..Northwest winds to 30 kt. Periods of snow and rain showers this evening, then scattered snow showers overnight. Waves 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt becoming west 10 to 20 kt. Scattered snow showers. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft subsiding to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Tuesday night..West winds 10 to 20 kt increasing to 30 kt. Freezing spray. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft building to 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Wednesday..West winds to 30 kt becoming northwest. Freezing spray. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.
Wednesday night..West winds 15 to 25 kt diminishing to 10 to 15 kt overnight. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt becoming south to 30 kt. Snow likely in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Thursday night..South winds to 30 kt becoming southwest 15 to 25 kt. Chance of rain and snow. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming south. Chance of rain. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt veering to northwest 10 to 20 kt. Chance of rain and snow. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
LMZ366


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pilgrim, MI
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location: 44.69, -86.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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FXUS63 KGRB 092032 AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 232 PM CST Mon Dec 9 2019

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 231 PM CST Mon Dec 9 2019

Wintry precipitation ending this evening, then a brief shot of much colder air for the middle of the week. Temperatures returning to above normal by the end of the work week.

The amplitude of the large scale flow across the CONUS has peaked. A strong jet surging east from the Pacific will rapidly undercut West Coast ridging, transitioning the flow across the CONUS into a seasonably strong highly zonal regime by late in the week. Some reamplification now seems likely late in the period, with a trough forming over the Rockies and ridging developing near the West Coast and from the Gulf of Mexico into the Atlantic.

Much colder air surging into the area will take temperatures briefly down to considerably below normal by mid-week, but readings will rebound to above normal by the end of the work week and the start of the upcoming weekend before falling off again at the end of the period. Though the details of individual systems that will affect the area remain sketchy given the developing zonal flow, there will likely be at least a couple rounds of precipitation during the period. But with Gulf moisture likely remaining south and east of the area, amounts will probably end up below normal.

SHORT TERM. Tonight and Tuesday Issued at 231 PM CST Mon Dec 9 2019

Drizzle, freezing drizzle and snow continued across the region this afternoon. Temperatures ranged from near 20 across the far north to the middle 30s at Manitowoc.

A band of heavy snow continues to move across northeast Wisconsin this afternoon. Issued a winter weather advisory earlier for the Fox Valley and lakeshore as this heavy band of snow will impact the afternoon and evening rush hours. Visibilities in this band of snow were down to around a quarter of a mile. With poor visibilities, falling temperatures and roads becoming snow covered will make for hazardous conditions. For the locations north and west of the Fox Valley, current ending of headlines looks good. Light snow will linger into Tuesday morning across the far north although accumulations will be on the light side.

Colder air works in the region tonight with lows in the single digits below zero across north-central Wisconsin with readings near 10 above across the Fox Valley and lakeshore. Snow showers will linger across the far north tuesday, otherwise it will be partly cloudy and cold with highs in the single digits well west and north of the Fox Valley to the teens across the Fox Valley and lakeshore.

LONG TERM. Tuesday Night Through Monday Issued at 231 PM CST Mon Dec 9 2019

The most significant combination of cold temperatures and wind still looks like it will occur late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. The forecast apparent temperature has eased a bit from what it was a couple days ago, but would support a Wind Chill Advisory across about the northwest half of the area. That's still over a day away, so will allow the current headlines to continue to play out and forego posting the advisory with this forecast issuance.

Temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday are much trickier. Clouds will eventually increase from the west, but that may not occur until after dark. Winds will be very light or calm with the anticyclone center sprawled across the region. It's quite possible that temperatures will plunge rapidly during the evening, then bounce back once clouds move overhead. Of course, the timing of the arrival of the clouds will be critical and might still change with later forecasts. For now, adjusted temperatures downward several degrees and amplified the atypical diurnal temperature trend in the hourly temperature grids.

Ascent due to isentropic lift along the back side of the receding cold air mass combined with weak/ill defined shortwaves crossing the region in the developing zonal flow regime will likely bring a couple rounds of light snow in the Thursday-Saturday time frame. Thursday, and Friday night into Saturday look like the most favorable times at this point. But the low amplitude nature of the flow typically leads to timing difficulties, so precipitation timing could change in later forecasts. Regardless of the timing, an inch or two of snow will be possible with each event.

AVIATION. for 18Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1153 AM CST Mon Dec 9 2019

Drizzle and freezing drizzle will switch over to snow this afternoon from west to east. A band of moderate to heavy snow will sweep across the area along and just behind the cold front with IFR and lower conditions. The precipitation should gradually end from west to east across much of the area late this afternoon and evening, except across the far north where snow showers will linger into Tuesday morning. Gusty northwest winds to near 30 knots are possible across much of the area this afternoon into early this evening, then gradually diminish overnight. CIGS expected to rise into the MVFR/VFR category tonight. Winds back to the west on Tuesday.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM CST this evening for WIZ022- 038>040-048>050.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for WIZ005- 010>013-018>021-030-031-035>037-045-073-074.

SYNOPSIS . Skowronski SHORT TERM . Eckberg LONG TERM . Skowronski AVIATION . Eckberg


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 37 mi75 min SW 5.1 G 7 39°F 994.6 hPa
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI 42 mi55 min NW 1.9 G 7 34°F 994.1 hPa (-1.5)
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 46 mi75 min SW 5.1 G 6 40°F 994.6 hPa
CBRW3 - Chambers Island, WI 48 mi75 min WNW 13 G 16 32°F

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI29 mi59 minN 01.50 miFog/Mist38°F37°F97%992.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFKS

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3E3NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoS8
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2 days agoNW8NW8NW3W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4E3E3SE5E4SE3CalmSE6SE5S9
G17
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.