Thursday, April22, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Pilgrim, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:53AMSunset 7:44PM Thursday April 22, 2021 9:58 AM CDT (14:58 UTC) Moonrise 2:11PMMoonset 4:01AM Illumination 81% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ366 Expires:202104222115;;946312 Fzus63 Kmkx 221341 Glflm Open Lake Forecast For Lake Michigan National Weather Service Milwaukee/sullivan Wi 841 Am Cdt Thu Apr 22 2021 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan. Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10% Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered.
Synopsis.. Westerly winds shift to the south to southwest this afternoon as high pressure around 30.3 inches builds to our south across the ohio river valley. Winds will be around 10 to 20 knots tonight, but will shift more southwesterly. South to southwesterly winds continue into Friday as the surface high skirts eastward. Northerly winds are then expected to develop into the weekend as a low passes to the south of lake michigan. && lmz261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868-222115- lake michigan from seul choix point to rock island passage 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan south of a line from seul choix point to the mackinac bridge and north of a line from charlevoix mi to south fox island 5 nm offshore- lake michigan from charlevoix to point betsie mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from point betsie to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from rock island passage to sturgeon bay wi- lake michigan from sturgeon bay to two rivers wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from two rivers to sheboygan wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from pentwater to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 841 am cdt Thu apr 22 2021 sheboygan wi to pentwater mi north...
Rest of today..West winds 10 to 15 kt increasing to 10 to 20 kt late this morning, then becoming southwest early this afternoon becoming south 15 to 25 kt late. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Tonight..South winds 15 to 25 kt becoming southwest 10 to 20 kt. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming south. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Friday night..Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Saturday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 kt veering to northwest. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Saturday night..North winds 15 to 25 kt increasing to 30 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft building to 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Sunday..North winds to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft.
Monday..Southeast winds 15 to 25 kt. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
LMZ366


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pilgrim, MI
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location: 44.69, -86.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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FXUS63 KGRB 221031 AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 531 AM CDT Thu Apr 22 2021

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

SHORT TERM. Today . Tonight . and Friday Issued at 330 AM CDT Thu Apr 22 2021

Weak upper ridging and surface high pressure will make for sunny skies and seasonable temperatures today.

Middle and high clouds will increase late tonight in an area of broad warm advection ahead of the next shortwave trough. Lows tonight should get close to averages before the clouds arrive.

CLouds will increase further on Friday as the upper trough weakens as it moves east, and a cold front approaches slowly from Minnesota. There could be a few showers across the western part of the forecast area during the afternoon, but amounts would be very light as the air is dry. Highs should be close to normal.

LONG TERM. Friday Night Through Wednesday Issued at 330 AM CDT Thu Apr 22 2021

Progressive westerly flow over much of the CONUS to start the period, which will bring a few chances for light precip to the area this weekend, then a deep trough will progress eastward into the Plains the first half of next week, with a developing low pressure system mid-week, bringing an unsettled period of weather. Temps look to start off below normal this weekend, climb above normal by Tuesday, then trend back below normal for the middle of next week, if current timing holds.

Friday night . mid-upper level shortwave will be exiting into Lower Michigan in the early evening, with the longer wave trough digging into the northern Plains and a surface cold front approaching north central WI. Limited deep level moisture and models only showing very weak forcing, will only carry slight chance PoPs for the area, with most of the night looking dry. There could be some breaks in the clouds, but clouds look to be around for much of the night. South winds will be on the light side, veering to the northwest overnight. Lows look to be pretty close to normal, as temps fall into the 30s to lower 40s.

Saturday and Sunday . another shortwave will track across the area on Saturday, as the upper trough works its way into the western Great Lakes. The cold front will track across the area, exiting by around 00z Sunday. Best moisture convergence and deepest moisture looks to be over northern WI, so will have the highest PoPs there, but a round of showers is possible farther south. Northwest winds should become a little gusty behind the front, up to around 25 mph. Any precip that does occur will be on the light side, under 0.25", as the Gulf of Mexico will be closed for business. Models have trended colder behind the front, bringing a quicker change over to snow and the chance for some light accumulations, mainly over northern WI. Will have to see how much precip is left by the time the colder air arrives, but will add a little snow into the forecast over the north. Precip will end late Saturday afternoon or early evening as the cold front and trough exits to the east. Dry conditions are expected Sunday morning, then as the front to our south begins to slowly return northward as a warm front, strong WAA and some isentropic lift will begin over the area and could produce some light precip. But dry air in the low levels could end up keeping things dry. Temps look to climb into the 50s to near 60 ahead of the front on Saturday, but near/behind the front readings will hold mainly in the 30s and 40s (north central WI) with morning high temps likely. Temps will be on the chilly side Saturday night, falling into the 20s for central and northern WI, with some lower 30s in the Fox Valley and lake shore. The warm front looks to remain south of the area on Sunday, which will keep a chilly southeast flow over the area, holding highs in the 40s to lower 50s.

Monday . southwest upper flow will prevail across the region, with the surface warm front likely in the vicinity of northeast WI. Continued WAA and isentropic lift could generate some light precip north of the front through at least Monday morning. Most of the precip should exit Monday afternoon, but could linger over northern WI. Temps will climb into the 60s south of the warm front on Monday (central WI), but remain mainly in the 50s elsewhere as the front will struggle to advance northward.

Monday night into Wednesday . details still hard to pin down at this point, as questions remain on where the warm front will end up, if any precip will develop well ahead of the approaching system and when the bulk of the widespread precip will arrive. Continued WAA Monday night and Tuesday should push the front into far northern WI or the U.P., but still some concern the front could get hung up with the cooler waters of the Great Lakes reinforcing the cool airmass to our north and east. 850mb temps climb into the lower teens in the warm sector, which will allow highs to climb into the middle 60s and 70s. Whether that will occur across most of the area or just central WI is still to be decided. As for precip, while some spotty, lighter precip is possible Monday night into Tuesday within the WAA regime, model consensus still has the more widespread and heavier activity arriving Tuesday night into Wednesday as the upper trough gets closer and a surface low develops to our southwest. This system will tap into Gulf moisture, with PWATs climbing to near 1.5", so some heavy rain will be possible. Thunder will also be a possibility, but hard to determine when/where the best chances for storms will be.

AVIATION. for 12Z TAF Issuance Issued at 531 AM CDT Thu Apr 22 2021

Clear skies and excellent visibility is expected through the evening hours today. High clouds will increase late tonight as an upper level disturbance approaches from the west. Moisture will slowly increase Friday, with MVFR ceilings possible towards evening in central and northcentral Wisconsin along with a slight chance of showers.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NONE.

SHORT TERM . RDM LONG TERM . Bersch AVIATION . RDM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 37 mi78 min W 11 G 14 39°F 1018.6 hPa
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI 42 mi64 min WNW 6 G 9.9 38°F 1016.3 hPa
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 43 mi78 min WSW 6 G 11 37°F 1017.6 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 46 mi78 min W 12 G 14 38°F 1018.6 hPa
CBRW3 - Chambers Island, WI 48 mi78 min SSW 8 G 13 37°F

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI29 mi63 minW 1010.00 miFair39°F26°F58%1017.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFKS

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN9
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NW9N7N3E5CalmCalmCalmCalmSW4SW5W4W6NW3CalmCalmCalmNW7NW8
G14
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1 day agoNW16
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N7N3CalmNE4NE3CalmNE3N4N3NE4N6N5N5NW4N7N7N8
2 days agoNW13
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NW11NW5NW6NW8NW10
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Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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