Wednesday, April1, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Pilgrim, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:28AMSunset 7:19PM Wednesday April 1, 2020 4:05 AM CDT (09:05 UTC) Moonrise 11:31AMMoonset 2:35AM Illumination 58% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ366 Expires:202004011515;;393261 Fzus63 Kmkx 010742 Glflm Open Lake Forecast For Lake Michigan National Weather Service Milwaukee/sullivan Wi 242 Am Cdt Wed Apr 1 2020 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan. Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10% Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered.
Synopsis.. High pressure of 30.2 inches is expected to build over the area today into Thursday. Light northerly winds will continue today before shifting to the southeast Thursday. Low pressure of 30.0 inches moves in from the west Friday night with winds shifting to the northwest behind the front. && lmz261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868-011515- lake michigan from seul choix point to rock island passage 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan south of a line from seul choix point to the mackinac bridge and north of a line from charlevoix mi to south fox island 5 nm offshore- lake michigan from charlevoix to point betsie mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from point betsie to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from rock island passage to sturgeon bay wi- lake michigan from sturgeon bay to two rivers wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from two rivers to sheboygan wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from pentwater to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 242 am cdt Wed apr 1 2020 sheboygan wi to pentwater mi north...
Today..North winds 10 to 15 kt becoming northwest. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Tonight..North winds 10 to 15 kt diminishing to 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thursday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 kt becoming east. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thursday night..East winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Friday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Friday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 kt becoming south. Chance of rain. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Saturday..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming north. Rain likely. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Sunday..North winds 5 to 10 kt becoming northwest. Waves 1 ft or less.
LMZ366


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pilgrim, MI
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location: 44.69, -86.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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FXUS63 KGRB 010834 AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 334 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2020

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

SHORT TERM. Today . Tonight . and Thursday Issued at 333 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2020

A weak but coupled upper jet was helping to produce some light precipitation in far northeast Wisconsin at 08UTC. Temperatures at the surface and aloft suggest that this will be very light rain or sprinkles, though isolated very light snow or freezing drizzle are possible. This feature will move east today as weak upper ridging approaches from the Plains. Highs today should be around 5 degrees higher than yesterday due to partial clearing and weak warm advection.

Lows tonight should be lowest in northeast Wisconsin where skies have the best chance of being clear. Lows will be 3 to 5 degrees above normal.

Thursday should be partly sunny and mild, with highs in the low to mid 50s, except much cooler near the bay and lake. Some light rain cold arrive late in the afternoon in northcentral Wisconsin.

LONG TERM. Thursday Night Through Tuesday Issued at 333 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2020

Forecast challenges mainly revolve around timing precip chances across the area. Models have come into better agreement with the timing of a slow frontal passage on Friday into Saturday. Then details get more murky late in the weekend into early next week when southwest flow briefly becomes established, and timing shortwave impulses gets tricky. Prefer to transition from the operational models to the ensemble means by early next week.

Thursday night through Friday night . A cold front will be slowly moving across Minnesota to the Wisconsin border on Thursday night. Although the gfs is more ambitious in creating precip over north- central WI, the nam and ecmwf are less so, as they show the primary moisture channel and mid-level fgen remaining along and behind the front well west of the region. Forecast soundings also show deep saturation will struggle to be achieved at times through the night. Will therefore slow down the forward progression of precip chances. Chances of precip, however, remain expected to increase on Friday when the front moves into north-central WI. Eastern WI will likely see the best chance of precip on Friday night. Precip amounts should diminish as the front moves east as the upper support weakens. Rainfall amounts of around 0.25 inch still look possible.

Rest of the forecast . As the front exits to the east, chances of precip will end on Saturday morning over eastern WI. Then a very dry airmass within a high pressure system will push across the region for the second half of Saturday into Sunday night. Because the airmass will be so dry (pwats under 0.25 inches) think models (particularly the gfs) are too ambitious in returning precip chances on Sunday night, and prefer the slower solutions of the ecmwf/canadian. But by Sunday night into Monday, strengthening warm/moist advection should lead to increasing chances of light rain. A more potent system could also arrive in the Tuesday into early Wednesday time period.

AVIATION. for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1044 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020

Low clouds are expected to remain widespread across the area into tomorrow, with some clearing possible late in the day as drier air finally circulates into the area from the east. Bases will edge down overnight, primarily to MVFR. Some fog and sprinkles/flurries will also be possible in the east. Bases will slowly lift on Wednesday, through primarily MVFR conditions are anticipated throughout the morning.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NONE.

SHORT TERM . RDM LONG TERM . MPC AVIATION . Skowronski


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 37 mi86 min NNE 5.1 G 7 39°F 1017.9 hPa
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI 42 mi48 min N 4.1 G 6 35°F 1017.7 hPa
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 43 mi86 min NW 7 G 8.9 33°F 1018.6 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 46 mi86 min NNE 7 G 9.9 39°F 1017.9 hPa

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI29 mi70 minN 010.00 miOvercast37°F32°F86%1017.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFKS

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE5NE6NE6CalmNE6NE4NE4E5N6N4N6N8
G14
N9N5N4N3NE3NE3NE5CalmCalmCalmN4N3
1 day agoNW11
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NW8N5N5CalmCalmCalmN3N4NE4
2 days agoSE10
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SE8SE7S7S12
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.