Thursday, September24, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Pilgrim, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:39AMSunset 6:45PM Thursday September 24, 2020 7:59 PM CDT (00:59 UTC) Moonrise 3:10PMMoonset 11:54PM Illumination 53% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ366 Expires:202009250345;;305088 Fzus63 Kmkx 241953 Glflm Open Lake Forecast For Lake Michigan National Weather Service Milwaukee/sullivan Wi 253 Pm Cdt Thu Sep 24 2020 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan. Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10% Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered.
Synopsis.. A west to east stationary front will remain over central lake mi into this evening with northeast winds north of the front and south winds south of the front. The front will lift north late tonight into Friday morning bringing south winds to northern lake michigan. Breezy south to southwest winds will then prevail from Friday into Saturday night as a couple low pressure areas move from the northern great plains through the lake superior region. The strongest winds will occur Saturday afternoon and night when gales are possible. The winds will then lessen and veer to westerly for Sunday with the passage of a cold front in the morning. && lmz261-362-364-366-563-565-250345- lake michigan from seul choix point to rock island passage 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan south of a line from seul choix point to the mackinac bridge and north of a line from charlevoix mi to south fox island 5 nm offshore- lake michigan from charlevoix to point betsie mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from point betsie to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from rock island passage to sturgeon bay wi- lake michigan from sturgeon bay to two rivers wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 253 pm cdt Thu sep 24 2020 two rivers wi to manistee mi north...
Tonight..Northeast to east winds 10 to 15 kt veering to south 5 to 10 kt. Slight chance of showers this evening. Patchy fog overnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Friday..South winds 10 to 15 kt increasing to 15 to 25 kt. Patchy fog in the morning. Waves 1 to 2 ft building to 3 to 5 ft.
Friday night..South winds 15 to 25 kt becoming southwest to 25 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Saturday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt. Chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
Saturday night..South winds 10 to 20 kt becoming southwest 15 to 25 kt. Chance of showers in the evening. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Sunday..West winds 15 to 25 kt becoming southwest. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Sunday night..West winds 15 to 25 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Monday..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt. Chance of showers. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming north. Showers likely. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
LMZ366


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pilgrim, MI
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location: 44.69, -86.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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FXUS63 KGRB 242353 AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 653 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2020

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

SHORT TERM. Tonight and Friday Issued at 228 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2020

A weak cold front will continue to produce showers, and possibly a few thunderstorms, as it moves slowly south across the region through this evening. The showers are expected to end this evening after the front moves south of the area and stalls out. Abundant low level moisture and light winds may lead to some fog formation, particularly across north-central and portions of central Wisconsin which has had a longer period of rain today.

The front will lift back north as a warm front during the day on Friday, which will clear skies out from south to north and lead to afternoon temperatures soaring into the middle to upper 70s with a few 80 degree readings possible. Behind the front surface winds will become southerly, with breezy conditions expected during the day as boundary layer winds increase. The clearing skies and warmer temperatures will cause MLCAPE values to rise to around 1000 J/kg with bulk shear values of 50 to 60 knots across far north-central Wisconsin during the late afternoon hours. However, model soundings indicate there will be a substantial capping inversion in place, indicating that convective activity should hold off until very late in the afternoon and most likely the evening when a mid level shortwave arrives from the northwest to help break the capping inversion.

LONG TERM. Friday Night Through Thursday Issued at 228 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2020

The main focus for the extended period will be the storms Friday night and Saturday night, the active pattern continuing into next week, and the return of well below normal temperatures.

Friday night through Saturday .

An embedded shortwave will serve as the focal point for any potential storms that may develop Friday evening. The atmosphere will be primed at the surface, with shallow WAA and moisture making their way into the region due to light southerly flow. Severe weather parameters due reach potential criteria as bulk shear values will be around 45 kts+ and MUCAPE reaches values around 750-1500 J/kg. That said, a fairly strong and persistent cap will be in place, with CIN ranging from -100 to -300 J/kg across the region, and this may prove enough to limit convective development. That said, there does appear to be a brief window in the evening where some elevated storms could develop, mainly across far northern Wisconsin, and these storms could prove strong to severe. SPC has us outlooked with a Marginal for far northwestern to northeastern Wisconsin, and this seems reasonable with the conditions setup. Any stronger storms that do develop can be expected to diminish again rapidly overnight.

Saturday morning will have a good chance of seeing dry conditions before the next system moves into the region. The setup will be somewhat similar to Friday, with moisture and warmth returning near the surface due to light southerly flow, ahead of an approaching cold front. Shear values will be quite high across the region, but instability will be lacking. If we can increase instability, this may be another day for strong storm development and organization, but right now it appears to be fairly weak. Will monitor in the next couple forecasts.

Rest of the extended . The shift to a more meridional pattern aloft is still expected, as a ridge builds over western CONUS and a trough digs in over the Great Lakes. Where guidance diverges however, is in the exact timing and location of the upper level trough, with some models keeping it over us or just to our west through Tuesday. This would mainly impact the high temperature forecast, with a later arrival keeping high temperatures warmer, longer, before the cold air moves in. Regardless of the exact timing of the temperature however, the low will still bring periods of showers and active weather as unsettled northwesterly flow continues.

Temperature wise, we will run above normal Friday and Saturday from the southerly flow at the surface, with highs in the 70s, before moderating to near seasonal Sunday/Monday with highs in the middle to upper 60s. Once the cold air moves in behind the upper level trough, expect highs to be in the middle to upper 50s by the middle of next week, well below normal.

AVIATION. for 00Z TAF Issuance Issued at 649 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2020

Once the lingering showers over east-central Wisconsin end late this evening, the main aviation weather concern will be stratus and fog. Guidance products were very aggressive in lowering the ceiling and visibility N & W of the Fox Valley after midnight. There are some cloud decks which could work against that happening, but overall this looks like a pretty good setup given the widespread rainfall of the past 24 hours and the longer night time periods as we progress into autumn. Generally went along with the guidance in bringing IFR/LIFR conditions to much of the area late tonight until a few hours after sunrise on Friday.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NONE.

SHORT TERM . Kurimski LONG TERM . Uhlmann AVIATION . Skowronski


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 37 mi79 min Calm G 1.9 67°F 1013.9 hPa
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI 42 mi59 min Calm G 5.1 57°F 1012 hPa (-0.0)
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 46 mi79 min S 7 G 11 65°F 1013.9 hPa
CBRW3 - Chambers Island, WI 48 mi79 min NNE 8 G 11 61°F
45002 - N MICHIGAN- Halfway between North Manitou and Washington Islands. 49 mi39 min E 7.8 G 9.7 61°F 60°F1013.1 hPa

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI29 mi64 minN 010.00 miFair63°F59°F89%1012.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFKS

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW5SW5SW4SW3CalmS4CalmS3CalmW4N3CalmCalmSE3S3S6W3W3W5W9W7CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmW6W5W8W7W6W4CalmCalmSW5
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmSE9S5SW13
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.