Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pilgrim, MI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Dry weather is expected through the middle of the week, which will allow area rivers to continue to slowly subside. A weak surface low/trough will move through the region with no precipitation today. Much warmer gets drawn into the region ahead of the trough, with high temperatures rising into the 60s and lower 70s, except 50s and lower 60s due to a lake/bay breeze. High pressure returns tonight into Wednesday, with continued dry and mild conditions inland from Lake Michigan. Throughout this period, low afternoon humidity is anticipated (20-30 percent range), which may result in an uptick in wildfire potential.

South winds develop Wednesday night and gusts to 20 to 30 mph on Thursday, resulting in an increase in Gulf moisture over the region. There is a 20 percent chance of showers in our far western counties late Thursday afternoon, but showers and embedded storms become more numerous Thursday night, as a cold front moves through the region. Rain will continue into Friday as the front slowly moves through the region. PWATs increase to 1.2 to 1.5 inches during this period with modest instability (MUCAPEs of 500-1000 J/kg). The long, skinny CAPE profiles and increased moisture will mean locally heavy rainfall will be possible. NBM probabilities of exceeding an inch are currently 20-30% with a less than 10% chance of exceeding 2 inches, which appears to be the high end amount for this event. Once the rain ends Friday afternoon/evening a period of dry weather is then anticipated for the upcoming weekend.

A low pressure system lifting north from the Plains is then expected to bring another round of rain to the region during the early part of next week. This system looks similar to the late week system with modest MUCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg with the 90th percentile for rainfall amounts around 2 inches.

Above normal temperatures are anticipated through Friday, with the cold frontal passage only bringing modest cooling for the weekend into early next week.

AVIATION
for 12Z TAF Issuance Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Mid and high clouds will move through the area early this morning, with mostly sunny skies expected later this morning and through the afternoon.
Some fair weather cumulus will develop across eastern Wisconsin during the mid to late afternoon. Mostly clear skies are then expected across all TAF sites tonight.

A weak cold front will move across the area this morning, shifting winds to the northwest. During the afternoon, a lake breeze boundary will develop around 18z at KMTW/KSUE, spreading westward to KGRB/KATW/KOSH between 21z Tue and 00z Wed. There also could be a bay breeze that would impact KGRB. Given the lake and bay breezed, there is uncertainty regarding wind direction at KGRB; however, current thinking is winds will switch to the northeast this afternoon then east during the evening as the lake breeze moves inland.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Minor to moderate flooding continues on many rivers, with major flooding expected to persist on parts of the Wolf River through tonight. Most of the river levels have crested, and with a prolonged stretch of dry weather anticipated through Thursday, water levels should gradually subside through the week.

Those living near rivers should continue to monitor the latest Flood Warnings and statements from the National Weather Service in Green Bay.

See the discussion section above for information pertaining to precipitation forecasts for the Thursday to Friday period.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.