Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pilgrim, MI
 | Sunrise 6:08 AM Sunset 7:33 PM Moonrise 4:40 AM Moonset 4:25 PM |
Marine Forecasts
NOTE: Zones were updated 3/20/2025. If your report is out of date, please click Edit
LMZ366 Expires:202604142145;;354972 Fzus63 Kmkx 141446 Glflm
open lake forecast for lake michigan national weather service milwaukee/sullivan wi 946 am cdt Tue apr 14 2026
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan.
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.
Synopsis -
areas of marine dense fog will continue into Wednesday morning as a warm front/stationary front wavers over the middle third of lake michigan. Marine dense fog advisory is now in effect until 7 am cdt Wednesday given this potential.
otherwise, severe storms are expected this afternoon into the evening, mainly over the southern two thirds of the lake as a low pressure of 29.6 inches shifts east into the area. Hail and gusty will be the main threat, but a tornadic storm from land that moves over the lake and briefly produces a waterspout can't be ruled out along the wisconsin and illinois shoreline. Winds will remain southerly south of the stationary boundary with modest breezes to 15 knots, while winds north of the boundary will light and variable. This configuration of winds will persist into Wednesday, with more Thunderstorms expected over the southern half of the lake Wednesday afternoon.
lmz261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868-142145- lake michigan from seul choix point to rock island passage 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan south of a line from seul choix point to the mackinac bridge and north of a line from charlevoix mi to south fox island 5 nm offshore- lake michigan from charlevoix to point betsie mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from point betsie to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from rock island passage to sturgeon bay wi- lake michigan from sturgeon bay to two rivers wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from two rivers to sheboygan wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from pentwater to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 946 am cdt Tue apr 14 2026
sheboygan wi to pentwater mi north - .
.dense fog advisory in effect until 7 am cdt Wednesday - .
Rest of today - North winds 10 to 15 kt becoming east. Areas of dense fog. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Tonight - Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt diminishing to 5 to 10 kt. Widespread dense fog. Chance of rain showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then slight chance of rain showers and Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Wednesday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 kt. Widespread dense fog in the morning, then patchy fog in the afternoon. Chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Wednesday night - Northeast winds 5 to 10 kt becoming east 10 to 15 kt. Rain showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then rain showers likely overnight. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Thursday - East winds 10 to 15 kt backing to northwest. Chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Thursday night - North winds 10 to 15 kt becoming northeast. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Friday - East winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southeast 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft building to 1 to 3 ft.
Saturday - South winds to 30 kt becoming southwest. Chance of rain showers. Waves 8 to 11 ft occasionally to 14 ft.
open lake forecast for lake michigan national weather service milwaukee/sullivan wi 946 am cdt Tue apr 14 2026
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan.
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.
areas of marine dense fog will continue into Wednesday morning as a warm front/stationary front wavers over the middle third of lake michigan. Marine dense fog advisory is now in effect until 7 am cdt Wednesday given this potential.
otherwise, severe storms are expected this afternoon into the evening, mainly over the southern two thirds of the lake as a low pressure of 29.6 inches shifts east into the area. Hail and gusty will be the main threat, but a tornadic storm from land that moves over the lake and briefly produces a waterspout can't be ruled out along the wisconsin and illinois shoreline. Winds will remain southerly south of the stationary boundary with modest breezes to 15 knots, while winds north of the boundary will light and variable. This configuration of winds will persist into Wednesday, with more Thunderstorms expected over the southern half of the lake Wednesday afternoon.
lmz261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868-142145- lake michigan from seul choix point to rock island passage 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan south of a line from seul choix point to the mackinac bridge and north of a line from charlevoix mi to south fox island 5 nm offshore- lake michigan from charlevoix to point betsie mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from point betsie to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from rock island passage to sturgeon bay wi- lake michigan from sturgeon bay to two rivers wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from two rivers to sheboygan wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from pentwater to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 946 am cdt Tue apr 14 2026
sheboygan wi to pentwater mi north - .
LMZ300
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pilgrim, MI
NEW! Add second zone forecast
FXUS63 KGRB 141810 AFDGRB
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 110 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026
Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance
KEY MESSAGES
- There is a risk for severe weather south of a Wisconsin Rapids to Sturgeon Bay line this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds are the main hazards. There is also an isolated tornado threat south of HWY 10.
- Thunderstorms will lead to localized heavy rainfall, greater than 1", this afternoon and evening across central and east- central WI. This will lead to additional flood concerns through tonight.
- Minor to moderate river flooding is ongoing or forecast to occur on several area rivers. Expect many rivers to rise this week due to additional rain and runoff from Upper Michigan, with the greatest impacts expected on the Menominee River, where some locations may see major flooding during the mid to late part of the week.
- Additional rounds of rain and thunderstorms are expected at times Wednesday through this weekend.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026
This morning...
Stratiform rain will come to an end from west to east early this morning as a LLJ shifts east. Dry conditions will then prevail through the rest of the morning. Behind the rain areas of fog are expected to develop across much of the region with the lowest visibilities, under 1/2 mile, across northern WI.
Severe storm potential late this afternoon/evening...
Last nights MCS has layed-out out an outflow boundary along the WI/IL border early this morning. Persistent southwest flow south of the boundary will help lift this boundary north as an effect warm front through the morning and afternoon. CAMs generally show the boundary stalling along HWY 21 this afternoon with SBCAPES increasing to ~2000 J/kg south of boundary. This will provide the focus for convective initiation this afternoon, around 3-5PM. With cloud layer winds out of the southwest storms will cross over to the cool side of the boundary as they move into Fox Vally and east-central WI.
This along with straight and elongated hodographs will lead to a large hail (1-2") threat. A damaging wind threat (gusts up to 60 mph) will also be possible this evening if storms grow upscale.
Tornado threat will primarily be focused across southern WI where low-level lapse rates will be steeper beneath an eroding EML, however, any storms that can latch onto the boundary and take advantage of the increased low-leve shear may pose a tornado threat, greatest chance would be south of HWY 10. The greatest uncertainty with the severe threat is the positions of the effective warm front, as a shift further north or south would change the areas of focus for severe storms. Convection will also result in localized heavy rainfall. HRRR probs show pockets of 50-70% chances for over 1" of rain across the central and east-central WI. With on-going flooding and saturated soils this will exacerbate both aerial and river flooding concerns.
Rain and thunderstorms Wednesday-Monday...
A surface low is forecast to lift into the western Great Lakes Wednesday bringing another round of rain and possible thunderstorms.
There is uncertainty with how much instability will be able to recover from Tuesday evenings convection. Latest CAMs and ML/AI guidance shunts most of the instability south of the CWA This would limit the severe threat, however, there is a 25-30% chance for another .5" of rain which would cause any ongoing flood concerns to continue.
A more dynamic trough is slated to impact the region late Friday into the weekend bringing additional widespread rainfall and storms.
The northward extent of greater instability is somewhat uncertain with this system, impacting severe weather potential, but this will be something to watch in the coming days. Drier and cooler weather is expected behind this system for early next week.
AVIATION
for 18Z TAF Issuance Issued at 109 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026
A mix of MVFR and IFR cigs prevailed across the region early this afternoon, with the exception of LIFR cigs and 1/4 mile vsbys at MTW. These conditions are expected to continue until around 00z Wed. Low stratus with LIFR cigs with fog of 1/2 mile or as low as 1/4 mile will then expand across the area after 00z Wed reaching all terminals. Anticipate these conditions to continue through early Wednesday morning before gradually improving by the afternoon.
Additionally, the next chances for showers and thunderstorms arrives around 23z at the central and east-central WI TAF sites.
Confidence is highest for thunderstorms at the east-central WI TAF sites between 23z Tue and 02z Wed, which are expressed with TEMPO groups. A brief period of LLWS is also anticipated at the east- central WI TAF sites during this time as well. Lower confidence for showers and thunderstorms at the central WI TAF sites, so used PROB30 groups. Some of the strongest storms could produce large hail and damaging wind gusts.
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026
MRMS QPE from the last 24-hours shows a maximum of 4.5-5.5 inches of rainfall along an axis from Stevens Point to Bonduel with a more broad swath of 1-3" south of HWY 8. The result has been rapidly rising rivers and streams along with on-going flash flooding. An additional 0.5-1" of rain is expected across this area today which will only exacerbate flooding concerns. Runoff from snow melt in Upper Michigan is also still expected to bring moderate to possibly major flooding on the Menominee River, especially during the mid to late part of the week. If you live near a river or stream, keep a close eye on water levels this week and monitor the latest Flood Warnings from the National Weather Service in Green Bay.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for WIZ022-035>040-045- 048>050.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 110 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026
Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance
KEY MESSAGES
- There is a risk for severe weather south of a Wisconsin Rapids to Sturgeon Bay line this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds are the main hazards. There is also an isolated tornado threat south of HWY 10.
- Thunderstorms will lead to localized heavy rainfall, greater than 1", this afternoon and evening across central and east- central WI. This will lead to additional flood concerns through tonight.
- Minor to moderate river flooding is ongoing or forecast to occur on several area rivers. Expect many rivers to rise this week due to additional rain and runoff from Upper Michigan, with the greatest impacts expected on the Menominee River, where some locations may see major flooding during the mid to late part of the week.
- Additional rounds of rain and thunderstorms are expected at times Wednesday through this weekend.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026
This morning...
Stratiform rain will come to an end from west to east early this morning as a LLJ shifts east. Dry conditions will then prevail through the rest of the morning. Behind the rain areas of fog are expected to develop across much of the region with the lowest visibilities, under 1/2 mile, across northern WI.
Severe storm potential late this afternoon/evening...
Last nights MCS has layed-out out an outflow boundary along the WI/IL border early this morning. Persistent southwest flow south of the boundary will help lift this boundary north as an effect warm front through the morning and afternoon. CAMs generally show the boundary stalling along HWY 21 this afternoon with SBCAPES increasing to ~2000 J/kg south of boundary. This will provide the focus for convective initiation this afternoon, around 3-5PM. With cloud layer winds out of the southwest storms will cross over to the cool side of the boundary as they move into Fox Vally and east-central WI.
This along with straight and elongated hodographs will lead to a large hail (1-2") threat. A damaging wind threat (gusts up to 60 mph) will also be possible this evening if storms grow upscale.
Tornado threat will primarily be focused across southern WI where low-level lapse rates will be steeper beneath an eroding EML, however, any storms that can latch onto the boundary and take advantage of the increased low-leve shear may pose a tornado threat, greatest chance would be south of HWY 10. The greatest uncertainty with the severe threat is the positions of the effective warm front, as a shift further north or south would change the areas of focus for severe storms. Convection will also result in localized heavy rainfall. HRRR probs show pockets of 50-70% chances for over 1" of rain across the central and east-central WI. With on-going flooding and saturated soils this will exacerbate both aerial and river flooding concerns.
Rain and thunderstorms Wednesday-Monday...
A surface low is forecast to lift into the western Great Lakes Wednesday bringing another round of rain and possible thunderstorms.
There is uncertainty with how much instability will be able to recover from Tuesday evenings convection. Latest CAMs and ML/AI guidance shunts most of the instability south of the CWA This would limit the severe threat, however, there is a 25-30% chance for another .5" of rain which would cause any ongoing flood concerns to continue.
A more dynamic trough is slated to impact the region late Friday into the weekend bringing additional widespread rainfall and storms.
The northward extent of greater instability is somewhat uncertain with this system, impacting severe weather potential, but this will be something to watch in the coming days. Drier and cooler weather is expected behind this system for early next week.
AVIATION
for 18Z TAF Issuance Issued at 109 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026
A mix of MVFR and IFR cigs prevailed across the region early this afternoon, with the exception of LIFR cigs and 1/4 mile vsbys at MTW. These conditions are expected to continue until around 00z Wed. Low stratus with LIFR cigs with fog of 1/2 mile or as low as 1/4 mile will then expand across the area after 00z Wed reaching all terminals. Anticipate these conditions to continue through early Wednesday morning before gradually improving by the afternoon.
Additionally, the next chances for showers and thunderstorms arrives around 23z at the central and east-central WI TAF sites.
Confidence is highest for thunderstorms at the east-central WI TAF sites between 23z Tue and 02z Wed, which are expressed with TEMPO groups. A brief period of LLWS is also anticipated at the east- central WI TAF sites during this time as well. Lower confidence for showers and thunderstorms at the central WI TAF sites, so used PROB30 groups. Some of the strongest storms could produce large hail and damaging wind gusts.
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026
MRMS QPE from the last 24-hours shows a maximum of 4.5-5.5 inches of rainfall along an axis from Stevens Point to Bonduel with a more broad swath of 1-3" south of HWY 8. The result has been rapidly rising rivers and streams along with on-going flash flooding. An additional 0.5-1" of rain is expected across this area today which will only exacerbate flooding concerns. Runoff from snow melt in Upper Michigan is also still expected to bring moderate to possibly major flooding on the Menominee River, especially during the mid to late part of the week. If you live near a river or stream, keep a close eye on water levels this week and monitor the latest Flood Warnings from the National Weather Service in Green Bay.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for WIZ022-035>040-045- 048>050.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air | Water | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI | 42 mi | 47 min | 0G | |||||
| NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI | 43 mi | 75 min | ESE 5.1G | 40°F | 29.84 | |||
| BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI | 46 mi | 85 min | S 6G | 56°F | 29.84 |
Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
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Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KFKS
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KFKS
Wind History Graph: FKS
(wind in knots)
GEOS Local Image of great lakes
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