Pilgrim, MI Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pilgrim, MI

June 18, 2024 1:46 AM CDT (06:46 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:05 AM   Sunset 8:38 PM
Moonrise 5:35 PM   Moonset 2:20 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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LMZ366 Expires:202406180915;;206311 Fzus63 Kmkx 180145 Glflm
open lake forecast for lake michigan national weather service milwaukee/sullivan wi 845 pm cdt Mon jun 17 2024
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan.
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.

Synopsis -
modest southerly winds will prevail through tonight. Low pressure around 29.5 inches lifting from the northern plains into northwestern ontario on Tuesday will then produce gusty southerly winds Tuesday through Tuesday night. Light southwesterly winds are then expected as the low continues to lift into the hudson bay, with a cold front slowly pushing southward across the lake Wednesday night into Thursday, shifting winds northeasterly. Scattered Thunderstorms can be expected late tonight across the north half of the lake, with more Thunderstorms possible through the middle of the week.

lmz261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868-180915- lake michigan from seul choix point to rock island passage 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan south of a line from seul choix point to the mackinac bridge and north of a line from charlevoix mi to south fox island 5 nm offshore- lake michigan from charlevoix to point betsie mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from point betsie to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from rock island passage to sturgeon bay wi- lake michigan from sturgeon bay to two rivers wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from two rivers to sheboygan wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from pentwater to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 845 pm cdt Mon jun 17 2024
sheboygan wi to pentwater mi north - .

Rest of tonight - Southeast winds 10 to 20 kt becoming south 15 to 25 kt. Slight chance of Thunderstorms with isolated showers. Waves 2 to 4 ft.

Tuesday - South winds 15 to 25 kt increasing to 30 kt. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.

Tuesday night - South winds to 30 kt. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.

Wednesday - Southwest winds to 30 kt diminishing to 15 to 25 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.

Wednesday night - Southeast winds 10 to 20 kt backing to northeast 5 to 10 kt overnight. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft.

Thursday - Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt becoming north. Chance of showers. Waves 1 to 2 ft.

Thursday night - North winds 10 to 15 kt becoming northeast. Waves 1 to 2 ft.

Friday - Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt. Chance of showers. Waves 1 to 2 ft.

Saturday - Southeast winds 10 to 20 kt becoming south. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 ft.

LMZ300
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pilgrim, MI
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Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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FXUS63 KGRB 180453 AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1153 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a continued risk of excessive rainfall from Wednesday through Friday.

- Well above average temperatures and humid conditions are expected Tuesday, with heat indices climbing into the 90s. Some locations in east-central and far northeast WI may see heat index values approaching 100.

- Periodic thunderstorm chances will continue throughout much of the week. Strong storms and locally heavy rainfall may be possible.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 444 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Short Term...Tonight and Tuesday

Precipitation/Thunderstorm Potential:

This afternoon's surface analysis had a stalled cold front/outflow boundary situated east-west from Clintonville to Kewaunee.
Thunderstorms developed along and southwest of the front in east- central WI where a healthy 2000-3000 J/kg of SBCAPE and dew points in the low 70s prevailed. This will leave a severe threat in east- central WI for the remainder of this afternoon with hail being the main threat. Torrential rainfall is also expected with these storms due to PWATs of 1.75 inches.

The cold front is expected to gradually pivot and lift north as a warm front late this afternoon into this evening. This will allow the pool of instability to increase across central and east-central WI. While thunderstorms are expected to develop and spread into central WI and continue in east-central WI, the severe potential will gradually decrease as the evening goes on due to a lack in deep- layer shear and instability becoming elevated. A marginal hail threat will remain in place for the evening as a result.

The showers and thunderstorms will shift north into north-central and far northeast WI late this evening and overnight before exiting WI into Upper MI by early Tuesday morning.

With the front well to the north of the area, dry conditions are expected for the remainder of Tuesday. However, some guidance is indicating an embedded shortwave/MCV will lift north into southeastern WI and produce some light showers or thunderstorms in far eastern WI. Included some slight chance PoPs for thunderstorms in east-central WI for now.

Temperatures/Winds:

Warm and humid conditions are expected to continue overnight as the frontal boundary lifts north and low-level southerly flow continues.
This will result in well above normal low temperatures ranging from the middle 60s to low 70s. The hot and muggy conditions will continue into Tuesday with high temperatures rising into the upper 80s and low 90s. With dew points expected to be in the low 70s, heat indices will soar into the 90s to near 100. The highest heat indices are expected in east-central and far northeast WI. Decided to hold off on a Heat Advisory with this forecast issuance, as there is some uncertainty with temperatures and dew points. Forecast soundings indicate afternoon mixing will occur and bring gusty south winds to the surface, with gusts to 30 to 35 mph.

Long Term...Tuesday Night Through Monday

An active pattern will persist through the majority of the extended with several rounds of rain and storms possible through mid-week. Some strong to severe storms will be possible across north-central Wisconsin Tuesday evening and overnight. Main threats with stronger storms would be gusty winds, hail, and locally heavy rainfall. Mid-level flow will then flatten out toward the end of the week, resulting in an active westerly flow regime across much of the Midwest.

Tuesday evening storm chances... As a surface low passes across Ontario, additional storm chances will enter the forecast area Tuesday evening along a trailing cold front. Most medium-range model guidance keeps decent instability (between 2,500 and 3,000 J/kg CAPE) out ahead of the cold front through 00Z Wednesday.
This would be enough to sustain convection into early Tuesday night due to lingering heat and humidity before storm activity gradually decreases overnight. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding will once again be a concern given a strong signal for 1.75" to 2" PWATs from central to north-central Wisconsin.

Rest of the extended... Expect a brief dry period on Thursday as the cold front departs to the southeast, leaving an area of large-scale subsidence and weak high pressure in its wake. A more robust system will then trek across the upper Mississippi Valley to start the weekend, bringing another round of potentially strong storms Saturday into Sunday. It is too soon to determine severe potential. Additionally, models are struggling to handle how long the high pressure will stick around, and are thus disagreeing about precip timing this far out. Will continue to monitor as we get closer to the event.

AVIATION
for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1152 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

VFR conditions prevailed across the area late this evening, as the evening showers/storms exited/weakened. Mainly VFR conditions are expected tonight, with some lower MVFR ceilings impacting northern WI (RHI) during the early overnight hours. A brief shower or storm will remain possible overnight as well, locally lowering flying conditions. A broken line of showers and storms will approach from the west after 00z Wednesday, likely reaching the Fox Valley and lake shore after 06z Wednesday. Instability will be waning, so thunder chances will also be decreasing through the evening hours. Will not include any thunder mention this far out.

Surface winds will remain under ~10 kts overnight, with LLWS expected as winds at 2000 ft increase to around 30kts. It will be a hot and humid Tuesday, with VFR conditions expected most of the day. Breezy south winds are expected, gusting to 30 kts. A few higher gusts are possible during peak mixing. Another period of low-end LLWS is expected Tuesday evening if/where surface winds stop gusting.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Beach Hazards Statement from 10 AM CDT Tuesday through Wednesday morning for WIZ022-040-050.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 37 mi67 minSSE 1.9G8.9 80°F
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI 42 mi47 minS 13G15 66°F 29.82
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 43 mi107 minE 7G8 61°F 29.87
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 46 mi67 minS 15G20 72°F 29.94
45210 47 mi21 min 62°F 57°F2 ft
CBRW3 - Chambers Island, WI 48 mi67 minW 7G8 61°F
45002 - N MICHIGAN- Halfway between North Manitou and Washington Islands. 49 mi37 minSSE 14G16 56°F


Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KFKS29 sm11 minS 08G1810 smPartly Cloudy82°F68°F62%29.88
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Wind History graph: FKS
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Green Bay, WI,




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