Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pilgrim, MI
January 21, 2025 3:26 AM CST (09:26 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 7:16 AM Sunset 4:47 PM Moonrise 1:01 AM Moonset 11:32 AM |
LMZ366 Expires:202501211015;;425105 Fzus63 Kmkx 210312 Glflm
open lake forecast for lake michigan national weather service milwaukee/sullivan wi 912 pm cst Mon jan 20 2025
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan.
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.
Synopsis -
arctic high pressure around 30.9 inches in the central plains will shift into the middle mississippi river valley by Tuesday, shifting further east into the middle of the week. This will maintain breezy west northwest winds across lake michigan through today, and shift to southwest overnight into Wednesday. Brisk west northwest winds will combine with elevated wave heights and Frigid air temperatures to support heavy freezing spray. Heavy freezing spray warnings are in effect through Tuesday morning in the northern third, and through Tuesday evening for the southern two thirds.
low pressure around 29.8 inches will move southeast into the western great lakes region Tuesday night into Wednesday, shifting winds to southwesterly and increasing winds into Wednesday. This will support continued freezing spray potential into Wednesday, but freezing spray is expected to be moderate with only patchy heavy spray developing.
lmz261-362-364-366-563-565-211015- lake michigan from seul choix point to rock island passage 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan south of a line from seul choix point to the mackinac bridge and north of a line from charlevoix mi to south fox island 5 nm offshore- lake michigan from charlevoix to point betsie mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from point betsie to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from rock island passage to sturgeon bay wi- lake michigan from sturgeon bay to two rivers wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 912 pm cst Mon jan 20 2025
two rivers wi to manistee mi north - .
.heavy freezing spray warning in effect until 6 am cst Tuesday - .
Rest of tonight - West winds to 30 kt diminishing to 15 to 25 kt. Heavy freezing spray. Chance of snow showers. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Tuesday - West winds 15 to 25 kt. Chance of snow showers. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Tuesday night - West winds 15 to 25 kt becoming southwest to 30 kt. Freezing spray overnight. Scattered snow showers overnight. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft building to 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft.
Wednesday - Southwest gales to 35 kt diminishing to 30 kt. Freezing spray. Snow showers likely. Waves 8 to 12 ft occasionally to 16 ft.
Wednesday night - West winds 15 to 25 kt becoming northwest 10 to 20 kt. Chance of snow showers in the evening. Waves 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft subsiding to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Thursday - Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Thursday night - Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming west 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Friday - West winds 10 to 20 kt becoming southwest 15 to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Saturday - Southwest winds to 30 kt becoming west. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
open lake forecast for lake michigan national weather service milwaukee/sullivan wi 912 pm cst Mon jan 20 2025
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan.
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.
arctic high pressure around 30.9 inches in the central plains will shift into the middle mississippi river valley by Tuesday, shifting further east into the middle of the week. This will maintain breezy west northwest winds across lake michigan through today, and shift to southwest overnight into Wednesday. Brisk west northwest winds will combine with elevated wave heights and Frigid air temperatures to support heavy freezing spray. Heavy freezing spray warnings are in effect through Tuesday morning in the northern third, and through Tuesday evening for the southern two thirds.
low pressure around 29.8 inches will move southeast into the western great lakes region Tuesday night into Wednesday, shifting winds to southwesterly and increasing winds into Wednesday. This will support continued freezing spray potential into Wednesday, but freezing spray is expected to be moderate with only patchy heavy spray developing.
lmz261-362-364-366-563-565-211015- lake michigan from seul choix point to rock island passage 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan south of a line from seul choix point to the mackinac bridge and north of a line from charlevoix mi to south fox island 5 nm offshore- lake michigan from charlevoix to point betsie mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from point betsie to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from rock island passage to sturgeon bay wi- lake michigan from sturgeon bay to two rivers wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 912 pm cst Mon jan 20 2025
two rivers wi to manistee mi north - .
LMZ300
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FXUS63 KGRB 210919 AFDGRB
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 319 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025
Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance
KEY MESSAGES
- Dangerously cold weather is expected this morning. Wind chills will range from 25 to 45 below zero in central and north- central Wisconsin and 20 to 35 below zero elsewhere. Extreme Cold Warnings are in effect for the entire area through noon.
- Cold weather is expected to continue this afternoon and this evening. Wind chills will generally range from 20 to 35 below zero. Cold Weather Advisories are in effect for the entire area from noon until midnight.
- After tonight, one last colder night is in the forecast for Thursday night before a warming trend arrives and lasts through the weekend.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 319 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025
Short Term
Today
Tonight...and Wednesday
An arctic airmass combined with light winds has caused very cold wind chills across the region early this morning of 25 to 40 below zero. Although temperatures should rise a few degrees as the sun comes up, the increase in wind as the boundary layer decouples will keep the very cold wind chills in place through much of the morning. Therefore, will keep the Extreme Cold Warning in effect for the entire region through noon when surface temperatures should warm enough to overcome the gusty winds by this afternoon.
Although wind chills will rise this afternoon, they will still likely hit Cold Weather Advisory criteria as highs today are only expected to rise to around zero across central and east-central Wisconsin and the single digits below zero across north-central Wisconsin.
A clipper system approaching from the west will cause surface winds to turn southerly this evening, with temperatures warming throughout the overnight hours. Lows tonight should occur early in the evening before warm air advection commences, as the region continues with Cold Weather Advisory criteria this evening until temperatures can warm above criteria. The warm air advection ahead of the clipper system is expected to being light snow late tonight, with the best chance (30-40 percent) across central and north-central Wisconsin. Snowfall amounts tonight should be light, with a dusting or a few tenths of an inch possible. Lows this evening are expected to bottom out to around 10 below zero across north-central and the single digits below zero across the rest of the region before warming as the night wears on.
The clipper will continue tracking towards the area during the day on Wednesday as temperatures warm across the region. Highs on Wednesday are expected to soar into the middle teens across the north, with highs around 20 across central and east-central Wisconsin. Light snow will continue to fall with modest broad frontogenesis and moisture. Snowfall amounts will again generally be a dusting to a few tenths of an inch as the probability of reaching or exceeding 1 inch is rather low (at most 10 percent).
Long Term...Wednesday Night Through Monday
The extended forecast will focus on some lingering cold air along with a few chances for some light snow in the forecast.
Temps/Wind Chills...
After a relative warmup in the middle of the week and low temperatures staying above zero Wednesday night, another push of colder air will be possible Thursday night as weak cold air advection and clearing skies allow temperatures to drop below zero by Friday morning across the northwoods. Current probabilistic guidance brings around a 50% chance of getting to -20 across portions and north-central Wisconsin only around 10-15% chance to get as low as -25, so while this will be another relatively colder night, don't currently anticipate cold weather headlines.
Behind this brief colder period temperatures are generally expected to moderate again through the weekend with overnight temperatures staying above zero and daytime highs getting back into the 20s and possibly a few lower 30s by early next week.
Light snow chances...
In general the extended period will be fairly dry. The only potential for any precipitation will be some lingering snow showers Wednesday night and then another chance for some lake effect across northern Wisconsin during the weekend.
AVIATION
for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1026 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025
Light to moderate west winds and mostly clear skies are expected through Tuesday morning, along with continued frigid temperatures and wind chills. High and mid-level clouds will increase during the late afternoon and evening, and flurries or very light snow will be possible in NC/C WI toward the end of the TAF period.
Surface winds will back SW to S late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening, but will generally be 10 kts or less. However, strong southwest winds aloft will overspread the region from west to east Tuesday evening, leading to widespread LLWS.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST today for WIZ005-010>013- 018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074.
Cold Weather Advisory from noon today to midnight CST tonight for WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 319 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025
Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance
KEY MESSAGES
- Dangerously cold weather is expected this morning. Wind chills will range from 25 to 45 below zero in central and north- central Wisconsin and 20 to 35 below zero elsewhere. Extreme Cold Warnings are in effect for the entire area through noon.
- Cold weather is expected to continue this afternoon and this evening. Wind chills will generally range from 20 to 35 below zero. Cold Weather Advisories are in effect for the entire area from noon until midnight.
- After tonight, one last colder night is in the forecast for Thursday night before a warming trend arrives and lasts through the weekend.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 319 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025
Short Term
Today
Tonight...and Wednesday
An arctic airmass combined with light winds has caused very cold wind chills across the region early this morning of 25 to 40 below zero. Although temperatures should rise a few degrees as the sun comes up, the increase in wind as the boundary layer decouples will keep the very cold wind chills in place through much of the morning. Therefore, will keep the Extreme Cold Warning in effect for the entire region through noon when surface temperatures should warm enough to overcome the gusty winds by this afternoon.
Although wind chills will rise this afternoon, they will still likely hit Cold Weather Advisory criteria as highs today are only expected to rise to around zero across central and east-central Wisconsin and the single digits below zero across north-central Wisconsin.
A clipper system approaching from the west will cause surface winds to turn southerly this evening, with temperatures warming throughout the overnight hours. Lows tonight should occur early in the evening before warm air advection commences, as the region continues with Cold Weather Advisory criteria this evening until temperatures can warm above criteria. The warm air advection ahead of the clipper system is expected to being light snow late tonight, with the best chance (30-40 percent) across central and north-central Wisconsin. Snowfall amounts tonight should be light, with a dusting or a few tenths of an inch possible. Lows this evening are expected to bottom out to around 10 below zero across north-central and the single digits below zero across the rest of the region before warming as the night wears on.
The clipper will continue tracking towards the area during the day on Wednesday as temperatures warm across the region. Highs on Wednesday are expected to soar into the middle teens across the north, with highs around 20 across central and east-central Wisconsin. Light snow will continue to fall with modest broad frontogenesis and moisture. Snowfall amounts will again generally be a dusting to a few tenths of an inch as the probability of reaching or exceeding 1 inch is rather low (at most 10 percent).
Long Term...Wednesday Night Through Monday
The extended forecast will focus on some lingering cold air along with a few chances for some light snow in the forecast.
Temps/Wind Chills...
After a relative warmup in the middle of the week and low temperatures staying above zero Wednesday night, another push of colder air will be possible Thursday night as weak cold air advection and clearing skies allow temperatures to drop below zero by Friday morning across the northwoods. Current probabilistic guidance brings around a 50% chance of getting to -20 across portions and north-central Wisconsin only around 10-15% chance to get as low as -25, so while this will be another relatively colder night, don't currently anticipate cold weather headlines.
Behind this brief colder period temperatures are generally expected to moderate again through the weekend with overnight temperatures staying above zero and daytime highs getting back into the 20s and possibly a few lower 30s by early next week.
Light snow chances...
In general the extended period will be fairly dry. The only potential for any precipitation will be some lingering snow showers Wednesday night and then another chance for some lake effect across northern Wisconsin during the weekend.
AVIATION
for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1026 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025
Light to moderate west winds and mostly clear skies are expected through Tuesday morning, along with continued frigid temperatures and wind chills. High and mid-level clouds will increase during the late afternoon and evening, and flurries or very light snow will be possible in NC/C WI toward the end of the TAF period.
Surface winds will back SW to S late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening, but will generally be 10 kts or less. However, strong southwest winds aloft will overspread the region from west to east Tuesday evening, leading to widespread LLWS.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST today for WIZ005-010>013- 018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074.
Cold Weather Advisory from noon today to midnight CST tonight for WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air | Water | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI | 37 mi | 46 min | W 14G | 4°F | ||||
| KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI | 42 mi | 86 min | W 7G | -9°F | 30.39 | |||
| NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI | 43 mi | 86 min | SW 8G | -7°F | ||||
| BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI | 46 mi | 46 min | W 18G | 3°F | 30.40 | |||
| CBRW3 - Chambers Island, WI | 48 mi | 46 min | SSW 8G | -10°F |
Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
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Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KFKS
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KFKS
Wind History Graph: FKS
(wind in knots)
GEOS Local Image of great lakes
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Green Bay, WI,
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