Sunday, August25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Forestville, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:05AMSunset 7:43PM Sunday August 25, 2019 5:50 PM CDT (22:50 UTC) Moonrise 12:31AMMoonset 4:07PM Illumination 22% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ542 Expires:201908260445;;200574 Fzus53 Kgrb 252016 Nshgrb Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay Wi 316 Pm Cdt Sun Aug 25 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan Lmz541>543-260445- Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi-two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi- 316 Pm Cdt Sun Aug 25 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from Monday morning through Tuesday morning...
Tonight..SE wind 10 to 20 kts. Waves 2 ft or less building to 2 to 4 ft after midnight. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Monday..SE wind 15 to 25 kts. Waves 3 to 5 ft building to 4 to 7 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Monday night..SE wind 15 to 25 kts veering sw after midnight. Waves 4 to 7 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft after midnight. Showers and a chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..W wind 15 to 20 kts. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft in the afternoon. Partly cloudy in the morning then clearing.
LMZ542


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Forestville, WI
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location: 44.71, -87.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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Fxus63 kgrb 251934
afdgrb
area forecast discussion
national weather service green bay wi
234 pm cdt Sun aug 25 2019
forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

Synopsis
Issued at 234 pm cdt Sun aug 25 2019
scattered showers and thunderstorms at times through Monday
night, blustery and mild on Tuesday, then windy and much cooler
Wednesday.

Slow progression of the large scale pattern is expected for the
next few days as an upper trough pushing into the area from the
west undergoes strong amplification. The trough will slow mid-
week as it closes off into an upper low over western ontario. The
bulk of the energy within the trough will lift toward northeast
canada late in the week, leaving weakening cyclonic upper flow
across the area.

The main precipitation event will occur with the frontal system
crossing the area early in the period with only a few rounds of
scattered light showers are expected thereafter. The result will
probably be near to slightly below normal amounts for most
locations. Despite day-to-day temperature variations due to the
passage of individual weather systems, readings will probably end
up near of slightly below normal for the period as a whole.

Short term Tonight and Monday
issued at 234 pm cdt Sun aug 25 2019
the latest rap analysis and satellite radar imagery show a
sprawling high pressure system departing over the northeast conus
early this afternoon. Onshore southeast flow around this massive
high and daytime heating has produced another day of widespread
fair weather clouds across the region. Meanwhile, southerly flow
aloft ahead of shortwave energy moving over southeast minnesota
and an MCV over eastern kansas is pushing higher moisture into
southwest wisconsin. A narrow band of showers is accompanying the
leading edge of the more moist air, and its possible that some of
these showers will reach into central wisconsin late this
afternoon or early evening. Will add a slight chance. As shortwave
energy moves into the region, followed by an approaching cold
front late on Monday, forecast concerns revolve around timing
precip chances and whether a severe threat will develop.

Tonight... Weak moisture convergence on the leading edge of the
more moist air will lead to a chance of light showers or sprinkles
over central to north-central wi this evening. Not sure how far
east to carry slight chances of precip, as the moisture
convergence generally weakens through the night. After a brief
lull in the precip chances, the higher resolution guidance
indicates that showers will expand over northern illinois into
southeast wisconsin overnight, which will then approach east-
central wi by early Monday morning. No firm consensus on this
scenario, but given the showers over illinois this afternoon,
think this is a reasonable scenario. Lows will be warmer and
mostly range from the low 50s near the u.P. Border to the low 60s
over the southern fox valley.

Monday... Details remain murky in general. Many of the higher
resolution models indicate the MCV over eastern kansas will lift
northeast across eastern wisconsin during the day. If this occurs,
marginal severe weather chances would become even lower.

Otherwise, much of central and northern wisconsin stand a decent
bet of remaining dry during the morning. With 400 to 600 j kg of
cape moving in from the west during the afternoon ahead of a cold
front, chances for thunderstorms will gradually increase across
central and north-central wi. Deep layer shear will also be
increasing into the 30-35 kt for thunderstorms to work with if any
can develop. But with the cloud cover and potential for rain with
the mcv, it is possible that thunderstorms will hold off into the
evening with the approaching front. Temps will be similar to
todays readings, though could be cooler over eastern wi if rain
moves in during the morning.

Long term Monday night through Sunday
issued at 234 pm cdt Sun aug 25 2019
the primary change in the guidance since yesterday has been to
pull back significantly on the precipitation amounts during the
next 36 hours. Timing has slowed a little as well.

The decrease in QPF seems to primarily be related to the speed
with which the primary forcing with the frontal system pushes
through the area, and the fact it is now arriving well after dark.

Pwats are still forecast to rise to AOA 1.5" for a time, so brief
heavy rain is possible with the stronger convection. Although
storm motion may be nearly parallel to the front, the front is
expected to remain progressive. The main hydro issue will probably
be ponding of water if the heavy rain occurs in urban areas.

Gusty winds will be possible with the storms, with the potential
for severe being limited at best.

The default forecast initialization grids based on a broad-based
blend of guidance products seemed reasonable for temperatures. In
addition to QPF adjustments toward the latest guidance, also
adjusted pops up some as the upper trough settles into the area
mid-week.

Aviation For 18z TAF issuance
issued at 1203 pm cdt Sun aug 25 2019
another day with widespread fair weather clouds across the
region. A period of broken clouds looks likely away from lake
michigan until mid-afternoon. Then a storm system remains on
track to impact the region from late tonight into Monday, but
details remain murky. It appears that the system will impact the
area in pieces. The first piece may pass over the fox valley and
lakeshore areas in the morning, with rain and isolated storms, and
MVFR CIGS vsbys. More showers and storms then look possible
across much of the area from late afternoon into Monday night.

Grb watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... ... .Skowronski
short term... ..Mpc
long term... ... Skowronski
aviation... ... .Mpc


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI 19 mi57 min S 5.1 G 7 69°F 1018.3 hPa
45014 23 mi51 min SSE 9.7 G 14 76°F 70°F1018.5 hPa
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 30 mi57 min SE 9.9 G 11 69°F 71°F1018.5 hPa
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 45 mi71 min E 2.9 G 4.1 69°F 1019.3 hPa

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Door County Cherryland Airport, WI9 mi55 minSE 710.00 miFair70°F57°F66%1018.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSUE

Wind History from SUE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE5E3E3E4----E4------SE4--SE4SE4SE7SE7SE9SE9SE11SE11SE11
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1 day agoE45CalmCalm--Calm--CalmN3--CalmCalmCalmNE3SE4SE8SE8SE8SE9E7E7SE5E7SE7
2 days agoE3NE3CalmCalm----NE5--NE6----NE5NE5NE4--N7N9N9N9N10N7NE9NE6E6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.