Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Forestville, WI

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Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 080905 AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 405 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

SHORT TERM. Today . Tonight . and Sunday Issued at 405 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020

Main issues to settle out in the short-term will be convection trends and strength of any storms that develop. Additionally, dangerous swimming conditions will develop this afternoon into tonight along Lake Michigan.

Satellite imagery continues to show MCV sliding across northwest WI/western U.P./western Lake Superior this morning as it shifts slowly eastward. Radar shows widespread showers and thunderstorms in a similar area with a line sagging to the south toward central WI. A few north/south oriented showers/storms have also developed across northeast WI in an area of moisture convergence, on the nose of stronger moisture transport. These have been very heavy rain producers so far with close to 2 inches being observed upstream to the south of Duluth. Temps are generally running in the 60s with dewpoints in the upper 50s to around 60 across northeast WI.

Today: A MCV will continue to shift eastward across the U.P. this morning. This will keep an increased chance of showers and thunderstorms around the area through at least mid morning. This would be between 12Z and 18Z, slowly diminishing from the south and west. During the afternoon hours, subsidence behind the the MCV and some capping in place across at least the southern part of the area should allow for a decrease in the shower and thunderstorm activity. The chance of storms can't be completely ruled out during the afternoon hours as several boundaries will likely be in place across the area, which may help to touch off some isolated storms. Hi-RES model guidance has widely varying solutions to how the scenarios will play out today and much of this depends on where the outflow boundaries set up.

The HRRR has been the better performing model early this morning, which would suggest the showers and storms stay fairly close to the U.P. border this morning and then develop in a more scattered nature this afternoon. The latest NAMNest has also aligned with this idea. MUCAPE is expected to increase during the afternoon hours with models showing around 2000-3000 J/kg. Shear values are progged to be around 20 kts behind the departing MCV, which would lend support for pulse-type thunderstorms this afternoon. The main threat from the storms would be very heavy rainfall, hail and gusty winds. SPC has outlooked much of the area with a Marginal Risk of severe weather today. Temperatures may be slow to increase this morning with additional cloud cover lingering; however, breaks in the clouds during the afternoon should allow most locations to warm into the low to mid 80s with dewpoints increasing to the mid to upper 60s. It will definitely feel more muggy during the day! The southerly flow across Lake Michigan will also allow waves to build along the Lake Michigan shoreline and will lead to dangerous swimming conditions Saturday afternoon. The Beach Hazard Statement will continue from this afternoon into this evening.

Tonight: The MCV/shortwave is expected to be well west of the area this evening, which will likely allow continued subsidence across the area. Mid-level ridging will help to decrease chances of showers/storms even further this evening through the overnight hours. In fact, most locations will see little to no showers/storms tonight under partly cloudy skies as a temperature inversion sets up ahead of a warm front. There is a small possibility that an elevated shower or storm could pop up ahead of the front, but the possibility is expected to be fairly low as previously mentioned. Dewpoints will increase across the area, with much of the area seeing upper 60s! Overnight lows will be warm as well, in the upper 60s for most locations.

Sunday: Models keep the temperature inversion in place across the area through much of the morning hours as a warm front lifts to the U.P. border. This should keep fairly quiet conditions in place across the area under partly cloudy skies, although several of the model keep a fair amount of clouds around the area. It is possible that an elevated shower/storm could develop along the warm front; however, the best chance looks to be in the afternoon. This will be as a shortwave/MCS pushes into the area between 18Z and 00Z. Although there are very differing solutions for the afternoon hours with a few of the models showing little to nothing happening (largely due to capping between 700-800mb). Current thinking is that a complex of thunderstorms would likely ride along or near the aforementioned warm front impacting north-central and possibly central WI late in the afternoon before spreading eastward across the rest of the area. Overall coverage continues to be a bit uncertain at this point. Where convection does initiate, models are painting out around 2500-3500 J/kg of MUCAPE during this time period with direction shear ahead of and under the shortwave around 25-35 kts. Fairly steep mid-level lapse rates (around 8C/km) along with fairly strong winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will likely lead to a damaging wind threat along with hail potential. SPC has placed most of the area under a Slight Risk of severe storms for Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. PWATs are expected to remain in the 1.5-2 inch range across the area, which will lead to very heavy rainfall potential under any of the storms. High temperatures are expected to be in the mid to upper 80s. Dewpoints running in the upper 60s to low 70 will make it feel very muggy!.

LONG TERM. Sunday Night Through Friday Issued at 405 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020

Zonal flow at 500mb will continue into the latter half of next week. Temperatures through much of the period will continue to run above normal. Low humidity is expected Tuesday into Wednesday, then dewpoints will be on the increase late in the week.

For Sunday night into Monday morning, a cold front will slowly move across the region. Showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon will continue into Sunday night. 0-6 km shear is 25 to 30 knots, so the risk of severe weather will continue into the evening. Overnight, instability should wane although with the front moving across the area the risk of severe weather will be very low. The showers and storms will come to an end Monday afternoon as high pressure builds into the region.

For Tuesday morning, low temperatures may dip into the upper 40s at our typical cold spots across northern Wisconsin with 50s elsewhere. Temperatures should rebound back to around 80. High pressure will remain in control of the weather through Wednesday. Timing differences develop on how quick the precipitation returns. Will go with the dry ECMWF/Canadian model solution for Wednesday. The latest run of the ECMWF/Canadian models would also keep Thursday dry. Will continue the current small pop for now. Later shifts may be able to remove it if the model trends continue. No changed made to the Friday forecast for now.

AVIATION. for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1059 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2020

Mid clouds will continue to thicken and lower ahead of an MCV approaching from Minnesota. CAMS models continue to predict that this system will track through the area later tonight into Saturday morning, although a bit later than previously predicted as the system has had issues getting going. Although there are still doubts on how far south the system will make it, the models seem fairly insistent on the system at least making it through central Wisconsin. Therefore will keep the previous TAFs but update the timing a bit to reflect the later arrival. Conditions are expected to fall to IFR/MVFR with this activity. Once this activity tracks east of the area the weather should remain quiet for the rest of the morning and into the afternoon hours on Saturday.

MARINE. Issued at 405 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020

Hazardous conditions for small craft and dangerous swimming conditions are expected to develop this afternoon as south winds increase to 15 to 25 kts in the late morning and afternoon. Waves will build to 4-7 feet on Lake MI and to 2-4 feet on the bay, peaking in the late afternoon and early evening. Small craft advisories and beach hazard statements have been issued.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Beach Hazards Statement from 10 AM CDT this morning through late tonight for WIZ022-040-050.

SHORT TERM . Cooley LONG TERM . Eckberg AVIATION . Kurimski MARINE . Cooley

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI	19 mi	55 min	SSW 8 G 12	69°F			1018.4 hPa
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI	30 mi	55 min	S 8.9 G 12	70°F	72°F		1017.9 hPa	61°F
CBRW3 - Chambers Island, WI	34 mi	45 min	SE 6 G 11	70°F
GBWW3	37 mi	67 min	S 1.9 G 4.1	70°F			1017.4 hPa

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Door County Cherryland Airport, WI	9 mi	29 min	S 7	10.00 mi	Partly Cloudy	67°F	62°F	84%	1018.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSUE

Wind History from SUE (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (5,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI

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