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LMZ542 Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi-two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi- 254 Pm Cst Tue Nov 28 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from 6 pm cst this evening through Wednesday morning...
Rest of this afternoon..SW wind 10 to 20 kts. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Tonight..SW wind 15 to 25 kts with gusts to around 30 kts. A chance of snow showers. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 3 to 5 ft in the late evening and overnight.
Wednesday..W wind 10 to 20 kts with gusts to around 25 kts. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Wednesday night..SW wind 10 to 20 kts. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Thursday..SW wind 10 to 20 kts veering W in the afternoon. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 ft.

LMZ500
No data

FXUS63 KGRB 281948 AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 148 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

SHORT TERM
Tonight and Wednesday Issued at 147 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

Key Messages:

- Clipper system to bring light snow showers/flurries tonight.

- Warmer temperatures for Wednesday.

Forecast Details:

As a clipper system moves from central Manitoba into western Ontario tonight, a warm front will move through WI this evening, followed by a cold front late tonight. Forecast soundings are initially dry, thus little if any precipitation is expected with the warm front. However, a strong push of WAA with the warm front will quickly moisten the atmosphere. Therefore, when the cold front arrives, along with increased FGEN forcing, anticipate light snow/flurries to develop later this evening into the overnight.
Stronger forcing is forecast to be from northern WI northward, thus perhaps one-half to one inch of snow for the Northwoods and less than one-half inch farther south. An exception may be northern Door County where an inch or two of snow is possible with the help of a little lake effect. The strong WAA and thickening clouds will bring steady or slowly rising temperatures tonight with readings reaching around 20 degrees north, middle 20s south by daybreak.

The clipper low moves into Hudson Bay and with high pressure over the Gulf Coast states, a west wind (a bit gusty at times) can be expected over the area on Wednesday. After some morning clouds, skies should become mostly sunny with max temperatures generally in the middle to upper 30s.

LONG TERM
Wednesday Night Through Tuesday Issued at 147 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

Key Messages:

- Dry weather and above normal temperatures take over the rest of the week.

- System arrives Saturday night into Sunday bringing chances for mixed precip to the forecast area. Recent model guidance may be favoring more snow as dominant precip type.

- Secondary system follows on Monday bringing additional chances for lake enhanced mixed precip. Precip type hard to determine this far out in the forecast period.

Wednesday night through Friday... Dry and warm weather will be dominant through the end of the week as Tuesday's warm front exits to the northeast and Wisconsin becomes influenced by upper level zonal flow and building high pressure to the west. High temperatures will trend a few degrees above normal, with guidance suggesting that some areas of southern Wisconsin may reach 7 to 8 degrees above the model climatology for this time of year.

Saturday through Sunday... Next chance for precip comes to the forecast area Saturday evening through Sunday upstream of a shortwave trough. Models still disagree about when the bulk of the precip will arrive to Wisconsin, with the GFS solution bringing precip to the region Saturday night while the ECMWF lags slightly behind. Forecast soundings show appreciable moisture throughout the column on Saturday with drier air intruding into the mid to lower levels from aloft into Sunday. For this reason, any rain or snow accumulation may be higher if precip arrives on Saturday.
Recent model guidance seems to be favoring snow as the main precip type although it's still difficult to tell. The freezing line will hover around central Wisconsin most of Saturday and push east into Sunday, suggesting that if the bulk of the precip arrives on Sunday, it may be mostly in the form of snow.

Monday through rest of the extended... A second system is expected to move through the forecast area Monday into Tuesday bringing additional chances for mixed precip. The aforementioned shortwave will pass through the area and exit to the northeast on Monday while an upper level jet feature digs to the south on the back end of the trough. This results in the GFS placing a 994 mb surface low to the southwest of Wisconsin under the favorable divergent region of the upper level shortwave. North/northeast backing winds on the northern edge of the surface low may provide some lake enhanced precip, especially along the lakeshore. Dominant precip type is still too difficult to determine this far out in the forecast period.

AVIATION
for 18Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1137 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

Middle and high clouds will continue overspread the region this afternoon ahead of a warm front. Winds will slowly back to the south-southwest by early evening.

A fast-moving clipper system moving across southern Canada is expected to pull not only the warm front through the area this evening, but a cold front after midnight. While not much snow is forecast with the warm front, there will be a band of light snow and flurries associated with the cold front. The VFR conditions will persist through this evening, but lower into the IFR/MVFR categories with the passage of the cold front. These low clouds are then expected to linger into Wednesday morning before scattering out.

The south-southwest winds this evening will veer to the west with the passage of the cold front and gust to around 20 kts overnight. LLWS is forecast this evening/tonight as winds at 2000 ft increase to 40-45 kts.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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