Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hampden, ME

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Today, high pressure sits over New York as low pressure system in central Canada moves east, bringing another surface low with an stationary front through the region through the short term period. Aloft however, zonal flow continues to funnel in some some warm air. Canadian wildfire smoke gets advected into the northeast today into tomorrow night, causing some air quality concerns through the evening. Hazy conditions, and sensitive groups may be impacted if outside.

Tonight, high pressure clears skies, which could lead to some radiational cooling. Did not lower temperatures too much however, as expecting haze to hang around overnight and potentially block outgoing radiation. Low temperatures tonight in the low-to-mid 60s. Fog forecast along the coast and over the waters.

Tomorrow, high pressure lingers in the northeast in the morning before weakening, with low from Canada creeping eastward. Clear skies and high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s.
Dewpoints increase, but generally areas stay below apparent temperature 95F heat advisory criteria. Places with the best chance for these conditions are Central Maine, from Dover- Foxcroft to central Penobscot. Hazy conditions persist into tomorrow night based on smoke model guidance. Again, this could act almost as a cloud shield, keeping temperatures from raising much higher than what is forecast. If there was breaks in the smoke however, temperatures could potentially increase a bit.

Tomorrow night, cold front from low in Canada begins to creep towards Maine, bringing the next chance for significant rain to the region. Slight chance for some isolated showers in the Crown of Maine as the front approaches. Higher chance of fog along the coast and into the Downeast region. Low temperatures in the mid-60s.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Thursday: Shortwave energy ahead of the approaching low pressure system will move into the region. The concern with this system will be the amount of convection development in the afternoon, especially in the north. As of this update, the morning is expected to be mostly sunny in the north with warm temps in the 80s. As the shortwave moves in, instability increases with higher CAPE and steepening lapse rates. Chance of thunderstorms is expected north of the Central Highlands.
Decided to keep slight chance in the south with a decreasing stability. In addition, upper air model soundings show PWATS well above normal. Will most likely need a heavy rain tag on thunderstorms for the day.

Thursday night: Showers will continue across the region as the cold front moves into the state. Instability will decrease with the diurnal cooling and a shift if winds from the W. Patchy fog is expected to develop in areas that experience rain.

Friday: Per the previous discussion, a cold front from the west will enter the forecast area early Friday morning and quickly swing through the area through the day. With frontal passage expected through the north by mid morning on Friday, the chance for any stronger storms in the north is low. However, the front will continue to push into the Downeast region through Friday afternoon, which will line up better with peak diurnal heating and could result in a few thunderstorms through the afternoon and evening. Elevated moisture levels remain ahead of the front, and so there could still be areas of moderate to heavy rainfall with the frontal passage into Friday afternoon. However, a drier air mass is moving in behind the front, and will quickly end the threat of heavier rain after the boundary moves through.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
High pressure should move in front the Great Lakes by Saturday making for partly cloudy skies and temps in the upper 70s to low 80s. High pressure should last into Sunday, however, some models are trying to bring the next cold front into the region. High uncertainty with the timing of the next system gave low confidence in the NBM precip forecast. Decided to reduce chance to slight chance. Model seem to return to agreement with the next high pressure system early next week. Temps will be near normal.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
NEAR TERM: KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL: VFR conditions tonight. Haze from Canadian wildfire smoke has reduced visibility slightly, predominantly at northern terminals. Haze forecast to linger around into tomorrow night. Winds from the W/SW at 5-10 kts, becoming variable overnight. Winds from the SW tomorrow. Skies generally clear in the north, with a few passing clouds.

KBGR/KBHB: VFR conditions tonight. Haze from Canadian wildfire smoke has reduced visibility slightly at KBGR. Haze forecast to linger around into tomorrow night. Winds from the SW at 5-10 kts, becoming variable overnight. Winds from the S tomorrow.
Skies generally clear at KBGR, with a few passing clouds. KBHB forecast to have ceilings drop to and to fog develop due to southerly flow. Conditions improve during the morning tomorrow, raising flight category back up to VFR.

SHORT TERM: Thurs: VFR/MVFR as rain moves in from the north. TS possible, mainly at northern terminals. S winds 5 to 10 kts.

Thurs night: MVFR/IFR over most terminals, with FG possible along with lingering rain showers. Light S winds may begin to shift NW late at FVE/far northern terminals behind frontal passage. LLWS possible ahead of the front.

Fri: MVFR/IFR early, quickly lifting to VFR behind frontal passage from north to south. Winds shifting NW 5 to 10 kts with gusts to 20 kts. LLWS possible ahead of the front.

Fri night-Sat: VFR. Winds light and variable.

Sunday: Uncertain conditions. Possible VFR/MVFR in rain showers.
WSW winds 5-10 kts.

MARINE
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas below Small Craft Advisory criteria tonight into tomorrow night. Seas stay at or below 3 ft over the outer waters, and at or below 2 ft for the inner waters.
Winds from the SW at 5-10 kts tonight, becoming S by tomorrow evening. Gusts up to 15 kts possible. Fog over the waters forecast tonight and tomorrow night.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA conditions for this period.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT Wednesday evening for MEZ001>006- 010-011-031-032.
MARINE...None.