Sunrise 5:32 AM   Sunset 7:33 PM Moonrise 8:39 PM   Moonset 5:39 AM

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ANZ151 Penobscot Bay- 1020 Pm Edt Tue Apr 23 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from Wednesday evening through late Wednesday night - .
Overnight - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 5 seconds. Wed - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of rain in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.Wed night - NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: nw 2 ft at 3 seconds. Thu - NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Thu night - W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less. Fri - W winds around 5 kt, becoming sw with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Fri night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 foot or less. Sat - SW winds around 5 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less. Sat night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers after midnight. Sun - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers in the morning. Sun night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.

ANZ100 1020 Pm Edt Tue Apr 23 2024
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm low pressure will advance towards the coast late tonight through Wednesday an associated cold front then passes over the waters during the late afternoon. High pressure builds in Thursday and Friday before shifting east of the waters over the weekend.

FXUS61 KCAR 240317 AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1117 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure will approach tonight, cross the area Wednesday, then exit across the Maritimes Thursday. High pressure will build across the region Friday into Saturday. High pressure should exit by Sunday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
11:15 PM Update...Clouds are pushing in from the west while eastern areas remain mostly clear. Temps are currently warmest over the north where clouds and a breeze are moderating the airmass, and cooler Downeast. No major changes were needed this hour.

Prev discussion blo...
The upper level low pressure will advance a surface boundary towards the region tonight. RH models show the low cloud deck moving into the NW by this evening and pushing SE throughout the night. High res models and extended QPF models show the rain moving into the North Woods after midnight. However with the very dry airmass ahead of the system, the rain will fight with this airmass to make it to the ground. Decided to keep likely rain chance out of the forecast until Wednesday morning when dewpoints increase with the clouds.

By Wednesday, the surface low pressure will move through the area throughout the day. By the morning, the rain will start to increase with center of the low swinging through. The 925mb model temps show a very tight temp gradient along the boundary of the system. By the early afternoon, the cold airmass will move into the North Woods, then move quickly towards the SE.
Since the system is expected to intensify, it will also pick up speed, which will create a thin rain/snow transition line as it moves through the Central Highlands by the evening. In addition, NW winds will increase with the transition to snow making for a breezy afternoon and evening. Caution will be needed Wednesday evening with the cold temps, wet snow, and clean untreated roadways.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Precipitation will end early Wednesday evening from west to east as the system quickly moves off to the east. There is still some uncertainty on when exactly the precip ends, but general consensus is it ending around mid-evening for all. The precipitation will be ending as snow most places thanks to very strong cold advection, except as a light mix for Downeast.
Accumulations generally 2 inches or less are expected for the storm in the north, with amounts over an inch generally being north of Houlton. Winds will also be gusty from the northwest to around 30 mph Wednesday night. The biggest concern is roads potentially freezing as temperatures quickly fall easily below freezing Wednesday night. The biggest threat of this is in the north. Temperatures in the north will be down to the mid to upper 20s by about midnight, and to the low 20s by dawn Thursday. Temperatures will also be falling below freezing Downeast and can't totally rule out icy roads there as well, but the gap between the precipitation ending and temperatures falling below freezing is a bit larger there which could give roads a chance to dry out.

Thursday will be mostly sunny and breezy with NW winds still gusting 20-30 mph. Airmass moderates a bit, with highs in the low to mid 40s north and around 50 Downeast. Very dry airmass with dewpoints down to the low teens.

High pressure builds in Thursday night and Friday. Still looks cold Thursday night thanks to good radiational cooling with lighter winds. Then warming to the 50s Friday, still with mostly sunny skies.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Warming trend continues into Saturday with weak ridging aloft building into the region. Highs Saturday will likely top 60 for most areas. Continued dry with a good amount of sun Saturday.
Model agreement then goes downhill a bit regarding whether the ridging can hold on into Monday or begin to break down by late Sunday. Went with chance of rain Sunday/Monday, but there is also a realistic possibility that we could stay dry into Monday.
More confidence in ridging aloft breaking down into more unsettled zonal flow or perhaps weak troughiness toward Tuesday/Wednesday, with increased rain chances. Airmass is looking easily too warm for any snow in the extended forecast.

AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions expected through the overnight hours.
KFVE will drop to MVFR cigs after 13z and quickly switch to IFR snow by 16z. KCAR and KPQI will see MVFR conditions around 15z with light rain before switching over to snow 20z.

Further south MVFR conditions hole off until closer to 17z Wed before light rain moves in. Expect rain continues through end of TAF period.

Northern Aroostook terminals will see another night of LLWS at FL020 from 21040kt. KFVE likely to see wind shear diminish around 07z with KCAR and KPQI experiencing wind shear from 03-09z.

SHORT TERM: Wednesday Night...Possible IFR early over far Eastern Maine to begin with snow and low ceilings, but all areas should improve to VFR by 3-6z, and remain VFR through the rest of the night. NW wind 10-15 kts with gusts to 25 kts.

Thursday...VFR. NW wind 10-15 kts with gusts to 25 kts.

Thursday Night to Saturday...VFR. Generally W wind 5-10 kts.

Sunday...VFR with potential of MVFR, but low confidence. S wind 10 kts.

MARINE
NEAR TERM: Winds and sea should remain below SCA conditions tonight and Wednesday. Winds and seas will start to approach SCA by the late evening Wednesday.

SHORT TERM: Small craft winds/seas very likely Wednesday night, with small possibility of gales from the NW. Conditions falling below small craft by midday Thursday, and remaining below small craft through Saturday. Possibility of small crafts toward Sunday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

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Hampden
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Tue -- 05:19 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 05:42 AM EDT     0.54 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:53 AM EDT     12.67 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:49 PM EDT     1.41 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:30 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:31 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:51 PM EDT     Full Moon
Tue -- 11:58 PM EDT     13.49 feet High Tide
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Hampden, Penobscot River, Maine, Tide feet

Sandy Point
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Tue -- 05:19 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:28 AM EDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:35 AM EDT     10.33 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:35 PM EDT     1.15 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:29 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:30 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:51 PM EDT     Full Moon
Tue -- 11:40 PM EDT     11.00 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Sandy Point, Penobscot River, Maine, Tide feet

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