Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hampden, ME

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
Low pressure tracks from the Great Lakes to Quebec province tonight drawing a warm front toward the region late. Aloft, an upper level disturbance crosses the region overnight through early Saturday. The low tracks north of Maine Saturday drawing a warm front across the region with the warm sector at least reaching central/Downeast portions of the forecast area. Expect a pre-frontal trof will also cross the region early Saturday, with a cold front starting to cross the region late.
Precipitable water values will increase overnight into Saturday in advance of the cold front. Expect several rounds of rain will cross the region tonight through early Saturday. Rain will taper to showers Saturday afternoon. Could also have an isolated afternoon thunderstorm across northern areas in advance of the approaching cold front. Low temperatures tonight will range from around 40 to the lower 40s across the forecast area. High temperatures Saturday will be dependent on the northern extent of the warm sector. Across northern areas, expect high temperatures around 60. Highs across central and interior Downeast portions of the forecast area will range through the 60s to around 70. With onshore winds, highs along the Downeast coast will range from the mid 50s to lower 60s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Upper disturbance is slowly drifting into the Maritimes overnight Saturday night as a secondary cold front crosses the area. Upper level cold pool will drift SE as the NW cold air advection kicks in. Will see isolated to scattered rain showers across the north with some snowflakes mixing in but no accumulations expected. Sunday will be a well mixed day with strong pressure gradient as low pressure deepens in the Maritimes and a 1032mb surface high approaches in Quebec.
Modeled soundings 4-5kft showing 40-60kt winds and the mixed layer is expected to climb up into these stronger winds. As the sun comes up Sunday expecting the NW winds to kick up and will become gusty rather quickly and peaking around midday.
Widespread gusts 30-40mph expected with some isolated higher gusts to 50mph possible in the higher terrain. Will need to monitor the hi-res model trends for possible wind headlines. At the same time dew points are going to crash with very dry air and went slightly below guidance with 5-10th percentile NBM Tds for the afternoon. This will result in RHs dropping to 20-35 percent with the higher RHs across the north. Will need to monitor for fire weather concern (see fire wx section below).
Turning mainly sunny but some clouds in the upslope locations thanks to the cold pool aloft. High temperatures in the low to mid 40s north with upper 40s to low 50s in the downslopes of the Longfellow Mtns which includes Bangor and Downeast.

Sunday night into Monday the surface ridge slides overhead with the 500mb ridge axis slightly to our west. Expect much lighter winds overnight into Monday from the NW generally less than 15mph. Mainly clear skies into Monday with dry conditions. Lows Monday AM will be in the 20s across the North Woods and Moosehead Region where the snowpack remains. Elsewhere, expecting lows generally 30-35F with the warmest temps at the coastline. Highs on Monday top out in the low to mid 50s north with upper 50s Downeast and Bangor region. Winds will slowly turn SSW along the Downeast coast so expecting slight cooling in the afternoon.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Overall through next week expecting 500mb ridging over the Southeastern United States with the northern stream dipping at times through New England. For the most part keeps Maine on the seasonable to slightly above normal temperature side of things.
There will be some dips in the jet likely resulting in precipitation as storm systems track NW of the area. Overall chances of precipitation are on the lighter side.

The best chance of precip next week is late Monday night into Tuesday as a vertically stacked system tracks out of the Great Lakes into Quebec. Rain showers likely perhaps steady light rain early Tuesday AM into Tuesday night as an occluded front tracks into Maine. Not expecting a ton of precip with generally widespread 0.25-0.5 inch of rain during this timeframe. There is some cold air damming signatures in the global models but overall airmass is above 0C so expecting the precip to be just rain. Lows in the 30s with highs in the 40s. S-SE winds 10-20mph.

Heading into Wednesday much of the guidance including latest GFS, ECMWF, ECMWF AIFS and UKMET keeps the 500mb disturbance over the Maritimes with backside shortwave energy pivoting overhead. Cannot rule out a lot of clouds Wednesday with chance of showers mainly across the north, but dry air eventually wins out by Wed eve.

Thursday mainly dry with high pressure overhead but far NE zones might see a few showers thanks to pivoting shortwave energy from the stubborn upper low in the Maritimes. Much of the global models point towards negative NAO with blocking in the North Atlantic.

Friday looks to be the next shot of the northern stream dipping but too much uncertainty at this point on timing and strength of system.

AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
NEAR TERM: Generally VFR/MVFR conditions across the region tonight through Saturday. Also, occasional LIFR overnight through early Saturday. Rain and showers tonight through Saturday. An isolated thunderstorm also possible across northern areas Saturday afternoon. South/southeast winds 5 to 10 knots tonight. South/southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots Saturday. Westerly low level wind shear regionwide overnight.
Southwesterly low level wind shear across northern areas later Saturday morning into the afternoon.

SHORT TERM:

Sun...VFR. Possible SCT-BKN MVFR cigs north. NW winds 15-25kt with gusts up to 45kt.

Mon...VFR. NW winds 5-15kt.

Tue.. MVFR/IFR. -SHRA likely. S-SE winds 5-15kt.

Wed...VFR south, SCT-BKN MVFR cigs north. -SHRA possible north.
WNW winds 10-15kt.

MARINE
NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all the waters from midnight through Saturday. Rain and showers later this evening into Saturday.

SHORT TERM: Small Craft Advisory will continue into Sun evening for winds/seas. Winds/seas will be below SCA conditions through Thursday.

FIRE WEATHER
Dry and windy day is expected Sunday across the area behind the departing storm system. Northwest winds will become gusty in the morning and last into the early evening hours. This is expected to be a decent mixing day with widespread gusts 30-45mph across the area with isolated higher gusts. In the afternoon as the mixing height reaches 5kft the relative humidity will drop significantly especially Downeast. Expecting 30-35 percent minimum RHs across the north from Moosehead Region to NE Aroostook. Downslope winds will result in 20-30 percent minimum RHs for the Central Highlands, Bangor Region to Downeast Coast.
Temperatures will be on the cooler side across the northern 1/2 of the area in the mid to upper 40s. Downeast and Bangor Region expecting 49-53F for highs given the downslope winds. The best chance of a wetting rain on Saturday prior to this event will be across the northern 1/2 of the area with the least amount of rain along the Downeast coast. It is across the Downeast coast we expect the potential for fire weather concerns given temperatures and the lack of rainfall prior. We will need to continue to monitor the trends over the next 24 hours.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ050>052.