Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cumberland Head, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 1012 AM EDT Wednesday...The current forecast remains in good shape, with only a few minor adjustments to cloud cover and temperatures needed. Cloud cover continues to scatter out across the region, with mostly clear skies expected over the next few hours.

Previous Discussion...As surface cold front departs east of our region, showers and thunderstorms have come to an end. Our region will be under cold air advection today, and maximum temperatures today will be about 30 degrees cooler than yesterday. Skies will clear later this afternoon with drier air working into the region. Good radiational cooling setup tonight will led to temperatures dropping back down into the 30s once again. Have issued a frost advisory for the Champlain valley as our frost freeze program begins on May 1 for that area. On Thursday we will have increasing clouds ahead of next approaching system, we will also have warmer temperatures with southerly flow in place. Maximum temperatures on Thursday will range through the 60s.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 300 AM EDT Wednesday...Surface low pressure will deepen across the eastern Great Lakes on Thursday night drawing warm, moist flow from the south and southwest into the forecast area.
Precipitation chances will increase from west to east ahead of an approaching warm frontal boundary. Highest chances of precip exist in northern areas of the region, like along the international border, closest to the core of the low pressure.
Modest instability across New York could lead to some rumbles of thunder, otherwise, mostly rain showers are expected throughout the night as a low level jet allows for some southerly gusts 15-25 knots to reach down to the surface, though an inversion will make mixing a challenge. Highest precip amounts will be along the international border from the St. Lawrence Valley to Jay Peak in VT, up to about a quarter to a third of an inch.
Elsewhere we'll see perhaps a hundredth to a tenth of an inch.
Lows Thursday night will be much milder than what we're anticipating tonight, and will even be 10-15 degrees above seasonal averages in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Lowest temps will linger east of the Greens while milder air arrives first in St.
Lawrence County.

Surface low will continue on a northeasterly trajectory on Friday as it crosses from Ontario to Quebec. The warm front and continually southerly flow will allow temperatures to soar into the 70s. A cold frontal boundary steering through this warm, unstable air from west to east will trigger some more thunderstorms, mainly across Vermont where modeled CAPE values are highest, but showers should be plentiful everywhere. Highest precip amounts will be on the spine of the Greens with up to 0.20-0.40", elsewhere under 0.20", and as low as a few hundredths for some in the Northeast Kingdom. With profiles a bit more favorable for atmospheric mixing on Friday, winds could gust up to 20-30 knots at times, higher on mountaintops.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 300 AM EDT Wednesday...Showers are expected to decrease in coverage on Friday night following the frontal system described in the short term discussion, but there should be enough scattered showers and thunderstorms with elevated instability around to keep things unsettled throughout the night. A wave of low pressure will sweep across the region on Saturday, resulting in a resurgence of more widespread showers.
Strongest signals for precipitation point to southeastern Vermont as ensembles indicate about 30-50% chance of 0.50" or higher amounts of precipitation there. The threat of additional scattered showers will linger early next week due to upper level troughing, but generally it appears we may be heading into a drier and quieter weather pattern soon after. High temperatures over the weekend in the 50s/60s look to increase next week slightly, brushing the 70s. Sunday night looks to be the coolest of the bunch as some models project cold air advection following the last wave of precipitation. Lows may be in the 30s to lower 40s.

AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Through 12Z Thursday...Breezy west-northwest or northwest wind speeds 13 to 20 knots and gusts 25 to 35 knots this morning, especially over KMSS or KBTV. Some lower ceilings down to 1800-3000 ft this morning will lift during the day. Clouds generally scatter after 15z and trend clear soon after.
Northwest winds will remain brisk at 10 to 15 knots sustained and gusts 18 to 25 knots.

Outlook...

Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 AM EDT Thursday for VTZ001-002-005-009.
NY...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 AM EDT Thursday for NYZ028-035.