Thursday, March4, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Cumberland Head, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:23AMSunset 5:47PM Thursday March 4, 2021 8:15 PM EST (01:15 UTC) Moonrise 12:17AMMoonset 10:23AM Illumination 62% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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SLZ024 Expires:202101011615;;234493 Fzus61 Kbuf 011150 Glfsl Forecast For The Saint Lawrence River Including The Thousand Islands Region National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 650 Am Est Fri Jan 1 2021 Slz022-024-011615- Saint Lawrence River From Cape Vincent To Saint Regis 650 Am Est Fri Jan 1 2021
Today..Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Partly Sunny this morning, then becoming mostly cloudy.
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Snow through the early overnight, then snow, rain and freezing rain late.
Saturday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. Snow and freezing rain in the morning, then snow likely in the afternoon.
Saturday night..West winds less than 10 knots. Mostly cloudy.
Sunday..East winds less than 10 knots becoming northeast. A chance of snow.
Monday..North winds less than 10 knots becoming west. Mostly cloudy.
Tuesday..West winds less than 10 knots becoming northwest. Mostly cloudy.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cumberland Head, NY
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location: 44.75, -73.39     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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FXUS61 KBTV 042339 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 639 PM EST Thu Mar 4 2021

SYNOPSIS. Fair and seasonably cold weather expected today, then mountain snow showers across the northern Adirondacks and northern Green Mountains tonight into Friday. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for portions of the northern New York and northern Vermont from 7 PM tonight until 7 PM Friday. Cold overnight low temperatures and brisk winds will cause low wind chills tonight and Friday night. On and off light snow showers or flurries likely continue in the northern mountains into this weekend before a trend toward milder weather occurs next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. As of 526 PM EST Thursday . Observational data shows snow still well north of the area and large temperature/dew point spreads across southern Quebec and down across our area. So it may take a little longer for the atmosphere to saturate enough for snow, which should take place between 00z and 03z across our northern areas. So have tweaked the forecast to delay any snow moving into our area by a couple of hours. Otherwise remainder of the forecast in real good shape and no other changes needed at this time.

Previous Discussion . Pleasant weather conditions out there at the moment. Temperatures have even reached 30 degrees for portions of southern Vermont. Winds have been on the breezy side, but not seeing much in the way of gustiness. The higher dewpoint depressions than forecast have made it tougher for mountain snow showers to begin developing, with virga that moved in that then dissipated. Thus, anticipate we remain dry for the rest of the afternoon.

Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM tonight through 7 PM Friday.

An upslope snow event will unfold this evening as a trough moves towards the North Country. The snow growth zone is plenty deep, and with moisture wrapping around deep low pressure, we should see light, fluffy snow with snow-to-liquid ratios in the 20:1 to 30:1 range. With the lack of any other synoptic forcing, we are looking at mostly orographic snow on northwest facing slopes of the northern Greens and Adirondacks. Our flow overnight is semi-blocked. As we transition into Friday, Froude numbers increase and flow becomes unblocked. A brief lull is expected late morning into the afternoon, but then an additional slug of moisture and increased vertical motion from cyclonic vorticity advection will promote more snow showers. As a surface trough pushes through, we should an additional round of snow Friday afternoon, with even some instability present. There could be some brief, heavy snow showers. However, it does not look like ground visibilities will be impacted too much, nor will we see flash freeze concerns. When both of these phases are added together, snowfall totals on northwest slopes of the Greens and Adirondacks will see 3 to 6 inches, with locally up to 10 inches at the higher summits. Northwestern Vermont and the southern Greens should see 1 to 3 inches of snow. Then the rest of the region should see about an 1 or less.

Another hazard to consider will be the wind chills in the single digits below zero to near 20 below zero. We will not see winds drop off that much overnight. So frostbite will be a concern for those outdoors for an extended period of time. There will be also likely be pockets of blowing snow, mainly where new snow falls overnight. This could add to some of the travel impacts for the morning commute as people wake up.

A quieter Friday afternoon as mentioned before. However, it will remain chilly. Highs in the upper teens to lower 20s with brisk winds continuing. Another cold night with near 0 to 10 degree temperatures. We will again see cold wind chills in the single digits below zero to near 20 below zero. Dry conditions are expected Friday night, but some lingering mountain snow showers will be possible.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. As of 313 PM EST Thursday . The upper level low will remain anchored across Newfoundland with an upper level trough extending southwestward across New England. This should help keep the cooler temperatures seen this week continue through Saturday. A weak shortwave trough passage may support some isolated to scattered snow showers across northern New York Saturday afternoon but a plethora of dry air within the DGZ and lack of omega where moisture is present should limit areal coverage and snowfall amounts.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 313 PM EST Thursday . We will finally see the upper level low over Newfoundland begin to shift eastward on Sunday with one more day of below normal temperatures across the region. As the low translates eastward, we will begin to feel the influences of a highly amplified longwave trough which will bring an end to any pesky snow showers across northern New York. As we enter the Monday timeframe, a highly amplified longwave trough will set up across the western coast of the US with heights increasing across the central and eastern US. This will allow for a significant warming trend as we head into next week. High temperatures on Monday will be right around seasonal normals in the lower to mid 30s but by the time Wednesday comes around we will see afternoon highs warm into the upper 40s to lower 50s. We will have to keep an eye on a cold front that is slated to sweep across the North Country next Thursday/Friday as there are signs we will be advecting both Pacific and western Gulf of Mexico moisture out ahead of the frontal boundary.

A strong southwesterly jet is expected ahead of the frontal passage so it's logical to think there will be some shadowing and upslope rainfall. Based on preliminary thoughts, the slow melt earlier in the week should help melt snow within the deeper valleys at a pretty quick pace and the rainfall expected from the late week system and doesn't appear to be a flood threat at this time. However, ice movement on area rivers should be widespread as we see thawing degree hours exceed 500 in the deeper valleys by Thursday.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Through 00Z Saturday . 24 hour TAF period will feature a few waves of light snow, mainly confined to higher elevations, that will impact a select few TAFs while others remain primarily VFR. First wave of snow will develop after 00Z and last through around 10Z, mainly impacting KBTV and KSLK with some MVFR visibilities and ceilings. Other TAF sites may see some vicinity showers during this time frame, but are expected to remain VFR. The first wave should come to an end Friday morning, followed by general VFR conditions throughout all TAF sites through around 18Z. The next wave of light snow will come throughafter 18Z. This Friday afternoon snow should be a little more widespread and impact all TAF sites with some reduced visibilities and ceilings.

Winds will be breezy from the north/northwest at 8 to 15 knots with gusts of 15 to 25 knots through 00Z Saturday.

Outlook .

Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. NO SIG WX.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. VT . Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for VTZ002-006- 016-017. NY . Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for NYZ030-031.

SYNOPSIS . Haynes NEAR TERM . Evenson/Haynes SHORT TERM . Clay LONG TERM . Clay AVIATION . Duell


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Plattsburgh International Airport , NY8 mi23 minWNW 11 G 1810.00 miOvercast19°F1°F45%1012.3 hPa
Franklin County State Airport, VT20 mi21 minW 7 G 1510.00 miLight Snow17°F3°F55%1011.8 hPa
Burlington, Burlington International Airport, VT23 mi22 minNW 15 G 2310.00 miMostly Cloudy19°F1°F45%1012 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPBG

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Tide / Current Tables for Sorel, Quebec
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Sorel
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Thu -- 02:55 AM EST     2.04 meters Low Tide
Thu -- 06:25 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:13 AM EST     2.05 meters High Tide
Thu -- 09:18 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:27 PM EST     2.01 meters Low Tide
Thu -- 05:43 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:57 PM EST     2.02 meters High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Islets Perces, Quebec
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Islets Perces
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Thu -- 02:52 AM EST     0.96 meters Low Tide
Thu -- 06:24 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:56 AM EST     0.98 meters High Tide
Thu -- 09:17 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 02:50 PM EST     0.96 meters Low Tide
Thu -- 05:42 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:47 PM EST     0.99 meters High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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