Saturday, February22, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Depoe Bay, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 5:50PM Friday February 21, 2020 11:40 PM PST (07:40 UTC) Moonrise 6:32AMMoonset 4:00PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ255 Expires:202002221215;;891976 Fzus56 Kpqr 212228 Cwfpqr Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Portland Or 228 Pm Pst Fri Feb 21 2020 Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Washington To Florence Oregon And Westward 60 Nm Pzz250-255-221215- Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Wa To Cascade Head Or Out 10 Nm-coastal Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or Out 10 Nm- 228 Pm Pst Fri Feb 21 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from Saturday morning through late Saturday night...
Tonight..SE wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves se 2 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 6 ft at 13 seconds.
Sat..SW wind 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt. Wind waves sw 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 10 ft at 14 seconds.
Sat night..S wind 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt, rising to 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt after midnight. Wind waves S 3 ft at 5 seconds. NW swell 10 ft at 15 seconds. Rain.
Sun..W wind 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Wind waves W 6 ft at 7 seconds. W swell 12 ft at 14 seconds. Rain.
Sun night..W wind 20 to 25 kt, easing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves W 4 ft at 5 seconds. W swell 15 ft at 14 seconds. Chance of showers.
Mon..NW wind 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. W swell 11 ft.
Mon night..NE wind 5 kt. Wind waves 1 ft. NW swell 9 ft.
Tue..E wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft. NW swell 6 ft.
Wed..N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. W swell 9 ft.
PZZ200 228 Pm Pst Fri Feb 21 2020
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. High pressure through Sat afternoon. A ~995 mb low in the gulf of alaska will move over vancouver island Sun morning. The associated front will move over the waters Sun morning, then move inland by Mon morning.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Depoe Bay, OR
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location: 44.8, -124.19     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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FXUS66 KPQR 220517 AAA AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 917 PM PST Fri Feb 21 2020

Updated Aviation section

SYNOPSIS. High pressure over the area will weaken tonight through Saturday. An upper level trough moves over across the Pacific Northwest Sunday and Monday. Snow levels are expected to lower below the Cascade passes Sunday. High pressure returns Tuesday and should persist through late next week. The exception is a very weak weather system that is forecast to flatten the ridge Tuesday night and Wednesday.

SHORT TERM. Tonight through Monday . Early afternoon water vapor satellite imagery revealed a flat upper ridge over the Pacific Northwest. A very weak short-wave was noted from eastern Washington to southwest Oregon at 20Z. Another disturbance was taking shape along 140W. Meanwhile, a closed 500 mb low pressure area could be seen off the southern California coast. The passing short-wave is turning the low-level flow onshore along the coast and coastal valleys and weakening the offshore gradient through the Columbia River Gorge. Visible imagery indicated high clouds moving across western Washington and northwest Oregon and marine stratus along the south Washington coast.

The 12Z models are in good agreement showing another weak short-wave feature moving across the forecast area late tonight through Saturday. Some of the high resolution models within the 12Z HREF suite show some light QPF overnight over the south Washington and north Oregon coast and coastal valleys, with additional light precip Sat morning. The best chances for rain appear across Clatsop, Wahkiakum and Pacific Counties. The most recent NBM model runs have trended slightly lower with POPS. Model time height sections and a cross-section analysis through the Gorge to just west of KAST shows considerable cloud cover Sat across the north half of the area.

A stronger system moves across the forecast area late Saturday night and Sunday. Models were having a difficult time with timing and central surface low pres depth earlier in the week. These differences have diminished over the past couple of days. The 12Z operational runs are in reasonable agreement depicting a 995-1000 mb low center near 49N 130W 12Z Sun. This low deepens to the low to mid 990s early Sun morning and is expected to make landfall near the Strait of Juan de Fuca 18Z Sun. The majority of the ECMWF ensemble members have the surface low over the south end of Vancouver Island. Windy conditions develop along the south Washington and north Oregon coastal beaches and headlands, but am not anticipating high wind criteria. The NAM and 4k WRF-GFS indicate max gusts of 40-45 kts along the south Washington and far north Oregon coast late Sun morning through early afternoon. Snow levels will be near the Cascade passes 12Z Sun, but lower to 2500 to 3500 ft by early Sun evening. Total snowfall Sun through 12Z Mon looks to be 6 to 12 inches above 3500 ft. Advisory amounts may be possible for the south Washington and north Oregon Cascades.

The upper trough moves into the northern Rockies Sun night and Mon, but residual upper level cyclonic flow late Sun night through Mon morning will help to maintain the threat of showers over the Cascades. Models show amplifying 500 mb heights just offshore Mon afternoon associated with a building ridge. Weishaar

LONG TERM. Monday night through Friday . Models and their ensembles are in good agreement showing the upper ridge moving across the forecast area late Mon night and Tue morning. The lack of surface gradients and clearing skies Mon night will lead to the enhanced potential for valley fog. The 12Z operational model runs maintain general high pressure Tue through Wed. The GFS hints at a very weak short wave moving across western Washington and far northwest Oregon late Tue night and Wed morning. Have gone slightly below NBM POPS for the Tue night through Wed time frame as GFS and ECMWF ensembles suggest no QPF. The Relative Measure of Predictability (RMOP) valid 00Z Feb 26 and 00Z Feb 27 show above 50% measure of predictability with high pressure over the forecast area. Cluster Analysis using 100% of the CMC, GFS and ECMWF also show above-normal 500 mb heights Wed. The remainder of the long term period, Wed night through Fri, looks to be dry as well. Weishaar

AVIATION. A modest onshore flow tonight, followed by a weak front pushing onshore Saturday is likely to keep MVFR clouds along the coast through the next 24 hours. The front Saturday will also bring a chance for some light rain to the north part of the coast including around KAST. Inland areas will be predominantly VFR through 12Z, but there is a possibility for areas of fog with IFR conditions to develop in the Willamette Valley between 12Z and 19Z. After 19Z expect mainly VFR conditions again for the inland TAF sites.

KPDX AND APPROACHES . VFR conditions expected to persist for most of the next 24 hours. There is a chance that IFR conditions in fog could develop after 13Z Saturday morning, but if they do develop, expect the fog to burn off leaving VFR conditions again after 19Z.

MARINE. No changes. Previous discussion follows. Calm seas with a general wave height of 6 to 8 ft will persist through Sat afternoon as high pressure erodes. A deepening 998 mb low, stemming from the Gulf of Alaska, is tracking towards the Pacific Northwest Sat, likely moving over Vancouver Island by Sun morning. This approaching system will cause seas to build to 10 to 12 ft by Sat morning. However, that is just the start as seas will continue to build through Sat night, peaking Sun early afternoon.

At this time, there has been a lot of variability between model guidance and raw data. While some outputs show seas building to near 25 ft in the southern Washington/northern Oregon outer waters, others are depicting seas staying around 20 ft. Due to the inconsistency, stayed on the conservative side with seas building near 20 ft Sun afternoon through the evening. With the increasing sea heights and a period of around 14 seconds, there is a high chance for sneaker waves Sun afternoon through Mon morning.

In addition to seas, this low will likely cause very strong winds over the waters as well as the beaches and headlands of the coast. With southerly flow around the low winds at 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt are possible, especially in the northern waters. One thing to note is that while winds will be coming from a favorable direction, this system does not seem to be taking on the features of a true coastal jet.

By Mon morning, the low pressure system will have moved inland and conditions will begin calming as weak high pressure builds in the post frontal environment. -Muessle

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . None. WA . None. PZ . Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Saturday to 4 AM PST Sunday for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 60 NM.



Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland www.twitter.com/NWSPortland

This discussion is for Northwest oregon and Southwest Washington from the Cascade crest to 60 nm offshore. This area is commonly referred to as the forecast area.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46097 13 mi111 min NNW 9.7 47°F 49°F1022.4 hPa
NWPO3 - Newport, OR 14 mi41 min E 1.9 G 2.9 44°F
SBEO3 - 9435380 - South Beach, OR 14 mi59 min E 5.1 G 6 44°F 50°F1023.2 hPa
46050 - STONEWALL BANKS - 20NM West of Newport, OR 19 mi31 min N 5.8 G 7.8 47°F 49°F1022.8 hPa40°F

Wind History for South Beach, Yaquina River, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Newport, Newport Municipal Airport, OR17 mi66 minESE 310.00 miOvercast43°F41°F93%1024 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KONP

Wind History from ONP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmE4E6E5E3CalmE3E4CalmCalmNE3NW6NW7NW7NW9NW8N7NW8N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoNE5E6E8E9E7E8E8E7E8E7E3CalmCalmW5NW6NW6NW5NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
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Tide / Current Tables for Depoe Bay, Oregon
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Kernville, Siletz River, Oregon
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Kernville
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:53 AM PST     5.22 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:38 AM PST     1.92 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:04 AM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:06 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:59 AM PST     6.18 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:02 PM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:53 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:20 PM PST     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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55.24.94.23.32.5222.53.64.85.86.25.95.142.61.30.3-0.1-00.82.13.6

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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