Wednesday, October16, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Depoe Bay, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:28AMSunset 6:28PM Wednesday October 16, 2019 3:39 PM PDT (22:39 UTC) Moonrise 7:22PMMoonset 9:15AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ255 Coastal Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or Out 10 Nm- 213 Pm Pdt Wed Oct 16 2019
.gale warning in effect until 5 pm pdt this afternoon...
Tonight..S wind 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Combined seas 13 ft with a dominant period of 14 seconds. Rain.
Thu..SW wind 15 to 20 kt. Gusts to 25 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves sw 4 ft at 6 seconds. W swell 14 ft at 16 seconds, building to 17 ft at 16 seconds in the afternoon. Rain in the morning, then showers and a slight chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Thu night..SW wind 20 to 25 kt, becoming W 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves sw 4 ft at 5 seconds. W swell 16 ft at 15 seconds. Showers and a slight chance of tstms in the evening, then rain likely after midnight.
Fri..SW wind 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt, becoming S with gusts to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves sw 2 ft at 5 seconds. W swell 14 ft at 14 seconds. Rain.
Fri night..SW wind 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt, becoming S 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt after midnight. Wind waves S 4 ft at 7 seconds. W swell 14 ft at 15 seconds. Showers and a slight chance of tstms.
Sat..W wind 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Wind waves 4 ft. W swell 15 ft. Showers and a slight chance of tstms.
Sat night..W wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. W swell 14 ft. Showers likely.
Sun..S wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. W swell 11 ft.
Mon..S wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. W swell 8 ft.
PZZ200 213 Pm Pdt Wed Oct 16 2019
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. The front that brought gusty winds to the waters has moved inland. A second cold front will move over the waters Fri morning through Sun. Unsettled weather will remain through the weekend into early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Depoe Bay, OR
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location: 44.8, -124.19     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 162200
afdpqr
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
300 pm pdt Wed oct 16 2019

Synopsis Expect rain in the lowlands each day for the next
week. Snow levels will flirt with cascade pass elevations late
Wednesday night through the weekend, but the bulk of snow
accumulation will occur above the passes. The stormy weather
pattern will drive high surf along the coast Thursday.

Short term An initial cold front has mostly moved through the
area this afternoon, with associated rain currently concentrated
in the cascades based on latest radar imagery. Rain associated
with a second, stronger cold front is approaching the coast,
bringing additional rain. As with the first front, the coast and
coast range will likely get the brunt of rain with the second
front with some areas measuring more than an inch of rain in the
calendar day by the time it's over. Behind the second front, rain
will turn to showers. Models have backed off some on overnight
instability, so tapered back the slight chance of thunderstorms so
that it stays over the waters tonight. However, instability
increases Thursday over land as the upper cold pool settles in, so
kept and even expanded the slight chance of thunderstorms during
the daytime hours.

The southerly component of the surface pressure gradient
increases Thursday, leading to mild and breezy conditions. It will
also mean that wind gusts are likely to be particularly noticeable
with showers Thursday since winds will already be starting out a
little higher than usual.

A reinforcing shortwave drops across the region Thursday night,
which will likely bring another round of steady rain overnight
Thursday into early Friday. The threat for thunderstorms will
return Friday night behind this front and ahead of the next upper
trough on Saturday, with the associated cold pool aloft enhancing
instability and reasonably strong shear again in place. This
general pattern has been known to produce some strong showers and
storms over the coastal water and near the coast, so will need to
continue to keep a close eye on trends over the coming days.

Models have begun to spin up a surface low late Friday night near
the washington coast, so will also keep an eye on its potential
development. There is a scenario where it would produce strong
wind gusts across the entire forecast area, but impacts are very
track and strength dependent, so confidence is low in any given
solution at this point. Bowen

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday... A persistent low in
the gulf of alaska will continue to spin off upper level
disturbances towards the pacific northwest and will continue through
Wednesday. The most notable event of the extended forecast will
occur through Sunday morning with the GFS and ECMWF showing 12-hr
liquid precip accumulations of over a half inch in parts of the
cascades. Models suggest a brief break from precip on Sunday, but
the turnover for the next event is a quick one. Moisture originating
from the tropics will move though our area Sunday night into Monday.

Although the 12z GFS and ECMWF model runs precipitation totals have
decreased from previous runs, they are still showing over a inch
of precip for the coast and northern cascades through Tuesday
night. Temperatures will remain steady throughout the extended
with highs in the 60s and lows in the mid to upper 40s. -thaler

Aviation A slow cold front is moving over southwest
washington northwest oregon today. This front is advecting
stratus and precipitation over the area. The rain will be
stratiform in nature and quite widespread with periods of heavier
rainfall possible. With the heavier rain, visibility may be
reduced to MVFR or even ifr levels. Satellite imagery shows dense
MVFR stratus over the area. These MVFR ceilings will dominate
through around 04z on Thursday. A weak ridge will form in the
post-frontal airmass which will allow ceilings to rise and the
rain to become more showery. However, this break is short lived
as by 15z on Thursday, the leading edge of the next system will
be advancing towards the coast. This means that clouds will begin
to fill in again. One challenge with this forecast is the slight
chance of thunderstorms developing around 06z on Thursday along
the coast. Confidence remains low on their development overnight,
so they were left out of tafs. The thunderstorm possibility will
spread inland after 18z on Thursday.

Kpdx and approaches... Rain will persist through 18z on Thursday with
periods of stronger showers. With the heavy rain, visibility may be
reduced at times. Deep MVFR stratus will persist through 05z
Thursday when skies are expected to improve toVFR with the
frontal passage and unstable airmass. A sky reduction to MVFR is
possible again after 14z Thursday as the next cold front
approaches.

-muessle

Marine A very stormy pattern will persist through the
beginning of next week with a series of fronts passing over the
waters through Monday. The cold front that brought gusty
conditions to the waters has moved inland and the winds are
starting to weaken to 15 to 20 kt. Winds are expected to remain
15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt Thursday evening through the
weekend. There is a chance of some higher winds starting Friday
night and is discussed further below.

At this time, seas are beginning to rise. Overnight, seas will
build from 14 ft to 20 ft by Thursday morning in the outer and
northern waters. Central waters will still see sea rises, but
slightly lower to 18 ft. These are high energy waves with a
period of 16 seconds. With these high seas near the shore, there
is a chance for high surf Thursday afternoon. After the sea
height peak Thursday afternoon, seas will begin to ease leveling
off around 14 to 16 ft Thursday night with a period of 15
seconds. Heights will remain steady at this level through
Saturday, then they will ease further to around 10 ft.

One of the main challenges with this forecast is that models are
beginning to show a mesoscale low developing along the northern
oregon southern washington coast Friday night. As of this
writing, the low is showing a motion inland over the columbia
which would cause winds to increase (potentially to gale force
speeds) in the central oregon waters. However, confidence remains
low as there is still a lack of model continuity between runs
and model types. If the low shifts northward, it could bring
gusty winds to all the waters; if it shifts south, it could bring
little to no increase to the winds to the waters. -muessle

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... High surf advisory from 11 am to 11 pm pdt Thursday for central
oregon coast-north oregon coast.

Wa... High surf advisory from 11 am to 11 pm pdt Thursday for south
washington coast.

Pz... Gale warning until 5 pm pdt this afternoon for coastal waters
from CAPE shoalwater wa to florence or out 60 nm.

Small craft advisory until 5 pm pdt Thursday for columbia river
bar.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46097 13 mi170 min S 21 55°F 56°F1007 hPa
NWPO3 - Newport, OR 14 mi40 min S 25 G 33 55°F
SBEO3 - 9435380 - South Beach, OR 14 mi52 min S 14 G 24 56°F 51°F1007.7 hPa
46050 - STONEWALL BANKS - 20NM West of Newport, OR 19 mi40 min S 23 G 31 1007.1 hPa (-1.2)

Wind History for South Beach, Yaquina River, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Newport, Newport Municipal Airport, OR17 mi45 minS 24 G 325.00 miFog/Mist and Windy55°F53°F94%1008.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KONP

Wind History from ONP (wind in knots)
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1 day agoN9N6N5CalmCalmE5SE3CalmE4E3E6E4CalmCalmCalmCalmS8S7S7S10S8S7SW5S11
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2 days agoN11N8
G14
N3N3CalmCalmN3E3E3CalmNE3NE3E3E4E7E4E8--E8E8E7NW12NW9N8

Tide / Current Tables for Depoe Bay, Oregon
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Kernville, Siletz River, Oregon
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Kernville
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Wed -- 03:20 AM PDT     5.12 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:32 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:20 AM PDT     1.55 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:14 AM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 02:51 PM PDT     5.96 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:29 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:20 PM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:06 PM PDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.23.54.55.154.53.62.721.61.72.43.64.85.765.64.83.72.41.30.50.10.4

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.