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ANZ151 Penobscot Bay- 1053 Pm Est Fri Dec 8 2023
.storm watch in effect from late Sunday night through Monday evening...
Overnight..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming ne late. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sat..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sat night..S winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers after midnight.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of rain in the afternoon. Patchy fog in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..S winds 25 to 30 kt. Gusts up to 35 kt, increasing to 50 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft, building to 5 to 8 ft after midnight. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm after midnight.
Mon..S winds 30 to 40 kt, becoming sw 25 to 35 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 60 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Mon night..W winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. A chance of rain in the evening.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft, subsiding to 3 to 5 ft in the afternoon.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.

ANZ100 1053 Pm Est Fri Dec 8 2023
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm quiet weather continues through Sunday as high pressure settles over the waters. A developing storm center impacts the waters Sunday night into Monday, with storm force southerly winds possible. Fair conditions then slowly return next week as high pressure builds across the waters.

FXUS61 KCAR 090529 AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1229 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will cross the area overnight. A warm front will approach Saturday then cross the region Saturday night.
Intensifying low pressure will track across Maine Monday and will draw a cold front across the region Monday evening. High pressure builds Monday night into Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
1215am Update...
Forecast in good shape with no changes needed. Cold, calm night underway with mostly clear skies...just a few high clouds beginning to stream in from the west but having little impacts on temps so far.

Previous discussion: The upper level ridge will move across the state tonight and Saturday. For tonight, guidance shows the winds calming with the surface ridge moving over the region. This coupled with snowpack and clear skies, ample radiational cooling is expected.
The current forecast has temps bottoming out at single digits below zero in the north and single digits above zero in the south. RH models show the approaching cloud deck after midnight with the shortwave energy moving over the crest of the mid level ridge. In addition, winds will shift to the S with the warm front moving to the north. This will help keep temps from falling further during the night.

By Friday, the ridge will move E out over the waters as the warm front settles in to the north. Clouds will increase across the region as the system moves in. Low level moisture and up slope flow will produce light precip across the Central Highlands and into Southern Aroostook. Upper air model soundings show a warm nose ahead of the warm advection, making for freezing drizzle along the moisture band, starting in the morning, then expanding NE in the afternoon. Though ice accumulations will be trace at best, any freezing drizzle can make travel difficult. Any accumulation is expected to be in the up slope areas in the Central Highlands mainly southern Piscatiquis and some areas in northern Penobscot. Temps expected to reach into the low 30s in the north and upper 30s in the south.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Warm advection and increasing cloudiness will the story for the rest of the weekend. The concern for Saturday night will be freezing drizzle...most notably in upslope locations such as Piscataquis County and northern Penobscot County. Critical thicknesses will be far too high for snow. The cold air remaining will be a shallow wedge under the frontal inversion. Low temperatures will occur in the evening and then tend to rise slowly for the remainder of the night.

Strong low level moisture advection and warming temperatures over existing snow pack will likely result in fog formation Saturday night into Sunday morning for much of the area.

Any frozen precip exits the area early Sunday morning. Low clouds will remain entrenched over the area all day, but warm advection will lift temperatures towards the mid-upper 40s to lower 50s for Bangor and the coast. Fog will linger through the morning, and may end up staying all day given the temp/moisture advection and in spite of increasing south winds later in the day. Light rain and drizzle can be expected Sunday, but the heavier precip will remain west until Sunday night.

The big event starts Sunday night. The first question will be the location of a weak northern stream cold front. The location of this front sets the stage for events later in the night and Monday. This cold front stalls over the area Sunday night and then deep moisture rides northward along the boundary. Where the boundary sets up will determine where the heaviest rains occur and where damaging winds occur.

Thermal gradients along the boundary tighten significantly Sunday night into Monday. The upper flow become parallel to the boundary and anomalous PWs climb to near record numbers. The northward moisture transport will be accelerated by a 100 kt low level jet. Instability aloft is also showing in forecast soundings. This all points to an axis of heavy rainfall that will total to 2 to 3 inches where the boundary sets up. The area remains in a marginal risk from the WPC ERO Sunday night into Monday.

Guidance varies on the boundary position. 12Z model runs vary from a more south and east placement from ECMWF and GEMS while NAM and GFS are further west. Have taken a compromise position that places the heaviest rain from southern Piscataquis County towards northern Aroostook County. This axis is also favored by orography.

Explosive cyclogenesis takes place along the boundary Sunday night into Monday. Numerous models are showing a rapidly deepening bomb moving along the boundary across Maine on Monday as the upper trough develops negative tilt and then closes off late Monday.

The potential for damaging winds exists on the south side of the boundary. For the second day in a row, we leaned toward NBM winds which have worked well during Sou'easters in recent years.
We have issued a High Wind Watch where confidence was highest.
If NAM and GFS verify, we may need to expand northward.
Confidence in winds meeting warning criteria is highest for Hancock and Washington counties. Even ensemble means are pointing towards gusts to 70 mph on the coast. The potential for gusts over 60 mph may extend across all of eastern Maine if the inversion breaks as suggest by recent GFS runs. These winds and the expected ground state adds up the potential for widespread power outages.

Depending on the low track, snow is a possibility for the far northwestern border of Aroostook and Somerset counties. Do not foresee any advisories at this point, but it is possible if the low track shifts east.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Winds shift to the west and cold air advection occurs behind the departing low
There will be a brief period of snow
mostly in Aroostook County with an inch or two possible Monday evening.
The west winds will gust over 30 mph throughout the night. Not too concerned about any flash freeze. The biggest travel threat will be those snow accumulations on the backside of the low.
Temperatures will drop off into the 20s...which will certainly be unpleasant for those without power. Highs on Tuesday do not recover that much...upper 20s north and low-mid 30s for Bangor and Downeast. Winds die off during the day to help with power restorations.

The remainder of the period features quiet weather with the risk of moisture-starved northern stream clippers. No significant replenishment of snowpack is likely. Temperatures will be mostly seasonable without any Arctic outbreaks.

AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR tonight and Saturday morning. Ceilings will lower from SW to NE Saturday with MVFR ceilings developing.
Fairly confident on timing of onset of MVFR ceilings. Light and variable wind overnight, except NW 5-10 knots at KFVE. Light and variable winds Sat morning, then S winds around 5 kts in the afternoon. Can't rule out some light freezing drizzle Saturday midday/afternoon, but not confident enough in it to put in the TAF.

SHORT TERM: Saturday night through Sunday...IFR to LIFR vis and ceilings expected
Freezing drizzle is a threat Saturday night
mostly north of a line from Dexter towards Houlton. South winds will increase through the period, reaching 15 to 25 kt by late Sunday.

Sunday night and Monday...IFR tempo LIFR due to cigs and heavy rain. Significant LLWS will create very hazardous conditions.
Slight chance of embedded thunderstorms. South winds generally 20 to 30 kt with gusts as high as 60 kt towards BHB.

Monday night...Becoming MVFR north of GNR and HUL with a chance of tempo IFR vis in snow. Generally VFR for BGR and BHB. West winds 20 to 30 kt.

Tuesday into Wednesday...Predominately VFR with a chance of tempo IFR vis in snow showers north of GNR and HUL.

MARINE
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA conditions for tonight and Saturday.

SHORT TERM: Have upgraded the Gale Watch to a Storm Watch for Sunday night into Monday evening. Warm advection is so strong that it may promote some stability initially, but confidence in storm force winds is quite high near the cold frontal passage on Monday. Have bumped up seas to reach over 20 ft by Monday afternoon.

HYDROLOGY
Existing snow pack/SWE and river ice does not spark great concern. The combination of heaviest rainfall and the greatest snow depth corresponds to Piscataquis County. The terrain in this county may contribute rises in the Piscataquis River and smaller streams in that county. Have issued a Flood Watch for southern and central Piscataquis County with these concerns in mind.

However, in general, the biggest threat across entire area may be rainfall rates combined with the partially frozen ground.
This could lead to rapid runoff and more widespread urban and small stream flooding issues later Sunday night through Monday.
The key will be the axis of heaviest rainfall and rates. Have opted to get a better look at high res data tonight into Saturday before expanding the watch further.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
The high tide near 9am Monday morning represents the biggest risk for any coastal flooding and wave runup issues. There are two mitigating factors. First, it is not a particularly high astronomical tide. Second, peak surge is about three hours after the high tide based on current projections. In this scenario, wave runup becomes the primary concern. Seas approaching 15 ft will be fairly likely to deposit rocks on roads exposed to the open ocean. That includes Mount Desert Island locations such as Seawall Road and coastal roads on the Schoodic Peninsula.

If the timing coincidence between peak surge and the high tide becomes more favorable, we will have to take a harder look at surge up the Penobscot River towards Bangor and vulnerable locations such as the Deer Isle Causeway.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...High Wind Watch from late Sunday night through Monday evening for MEZ006-011-015>017-029-030-032.
Flood Watch from late Sunday night through Tuesday morning for MEZ010-031.
MARINE...Storm Watch from late Sunday night through Monday evening for ANZ050>052.

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Bangor
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Fri -- 01:03 AM EST     2.02 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:09 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:39 AM EST     12.74 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:59 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 01:18 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 01:37 PM EST     1.69 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:53 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:05 PM EST     11.92 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bangor, Penobscot River, Maine, Tide feet

South Orrington
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Fri -- 12:56 AM EST     1.92 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:09 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:59 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:15 AM EST     11.72 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:19 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 01:32 PM EST     1.68 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:54 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:40 PM EST     10.98 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

South Orrington, Penobscot River, Maine, Tide feet

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