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ANZ151 Penobscot Bay- 317 Am Est Thu Nov 30 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through Friday morning...
Today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri night..SW winds around 5 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Scattered showers.
Sat night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Scattered showers.
Sun..NE winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Scattered showers.
Sun night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Scattered showers in the evening, then rain likely after midnight.
Mon..NE winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain likely. Snow likely in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..N winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Scattered rain and snow showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.

ANZ100 317 Am Est Thu Nov 30 2023
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm high pressure continues to move offshore south of the waters today, bringing a freshening southwesterly flow. A weak area of low pressure along a cold front crosses the waters Friday night, with a cold front stalling across the waters behind the system this weekend. High pressure mostly passes to the north this weekend. Multiple weak disturbances move along the front this weekend, with a potentially stronger coastal low possible early next week.

FXUS61 KCAR 300506 AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1206 AM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

SYNOPSIS
A warm front will cross the region overnight through Thursday.
A front will cross the region Friday. High pressure will cross the region Saturday. Low pressure will cross the region Sunday into Monday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
1205AM Update...No major changes to the forecast for this update. Temps are expected to continue to rise throughout the night.

Previous Discussion...
Ridging will exit across the Maritimes tonight. A warm front will then begin to lift across the region overnight with the developing return flow. Expect partly cloudy/mostly clear skies across the region early tonight. Clouds will then increase overnight in advance of the warm front. Isentropic lift with warm advection could also support isolated/scattered snow showers across northern areas later tonight. The warm front will lift north of the region Thursday. Across northern areas Thursday expect mostly cloudy skies, with isolated/scattered snow showers also possible early. Across Downeast areas, expect a mostly cloudy/partly sunny morning with a mostly sunny afternoon. Low temperatures tonight will occur later this evening through early morning, then begin to slowly warm overnight with increasing clouds and warm advection. Low temperatures will generally range from 10 to 15 north, to the upper teens to lower 20s Downeast. High temperatures Thursday will range from the lower to mid 30s north, to the upper 30s interior Downeast with around 40 along the Downeast coast.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Low pressure will track well to our north Thursday evening, with its associated cold front approaching from Quebec province. Southerly flow in advance of the front and increasing clouds will mean temperatures will slowly rise during the overnight hours. With fairly zonal flow aloft and the best forcing remaining to the north, moisture will be limited with the front. That being said, there will still be a chance of a snow shower, mainly west of the route 11 corridor across far northern Maine.

The front will slowly begin to cross northern and central areas during Friday. The front is weak, with little in the way of cold advection behind it, thus afternoon highs will actually be milder than the previous day's and above normal for this time of year.
Expect partly sunny skies during Friday. The surface pressure pattern will be weak with light and variable winds expected on Friday. Still could be a chance for a snow shower across northern and western areas into Friday morning.

Friday's cold front makes only very slow progress across the southern portions of the forecast area Friday evening. At the surface, a 1025 mb high will be centered to our north across eastern Quebec province. Meanwhile, a short wave and weak overunning along the nearly stationary boundary to our south spells an increasing threat for some precipitation for central and Downeast portions of the forecast area. There appears to be enough model consensus to justify categorical pops, especially for Downeast areas Friday evening. The boundary layer is warm enough for mainly liquid precipitation for Bangor and all of Downeast Maine, with rain or snow for the central Maine Highlands, with all snow north of there. Appears some light snow may make it as far north as the Houlton area, with high pressure to the north of the state keeping dry air entrenched across the St. John Valley and Northern Aroostook. In any event, any precipitation is light, with any snow accumulation light at best.

Weak low pressure exits to the east of Nova Scotia Saturday. A weak upper disturbance crosses behind that feature. This keeps the chance of snowshowers in the north, with rain and snow showers for Bangor and Downeast.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Expect mainly dry conditions Saturday night. The forecast Sunday through the middle of next week begins to sound like a broken record but warrants the mention of a precipitation chance each day. Sunday looks to feature another round of mainly light overrunning snow.

Forecast uncertainty then increases Sunday night through Monday. The 12Z deterministic GFS has low pressure tracking north through the Great Lakes region Sunday night and Monday, with weak low crossing the Gulf of Maine, and a stronger low passing to the south of Nova Scotia on Monday. The CMC maintains high pressure and drier air across the region, with a weak surface low/flatter wave passing well to our south, and out into the open Atlantic, east of the mid atlantic. EC develops a closed H5 low across southern New England coast, developing a much stronger surface low south of Nova Scotia during the day Monday.

The uncertainty with the placement of surface/upper features continues into mid week, thus no reason to deviate from the National Model Blend pops. Overall, temperatures will be running a bit below normal for this time of year through mid week.

AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
NEAR TERM: Occasional MVFR conditions possible across northern areas tonight through early Thursday with isolated/scattered snow showers. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions across the region tonight through Thursday. Southwest/south winds 5 to 10 knots tonight, then 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots Thursday.

SHORT TERM: Thur night through Fri...Mainly VFR. Light Wind.

Fri Night through Sat.. MVFR or lower BGR/BHB in rain/snow. VFR at the Aroostook terminals. N to NE Wind 5 to 10 kt.

Sat night through Sun....VFR/MVFR in scattered -shsn or -sn.

Sun Night through Mon...MFVR/IFR. Chance of snow.

MARINE
NEAR TERM: Winds are dropping below SCA. However, a few gusts to 25 kt are still possible over the offshore waters. Small craft advisory conditions are then expected late tonight through Thursday.

SHORT TERM: Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible Thursday night into Friday, Could be a few gusts up to 35 kt Friday evening. Winds/seas then should remain below SCA levels through Sunday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

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Bangor
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Thu -- 12:14 AM EST     12.94 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:37 AM EST     1.34 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:18 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 12:15 PM EST     14.89 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:56 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:34 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:18 PM EST     -0.46 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bangor, Penobscot River, Maine, Tide feet

South Orrington
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Thu -- 12:46 AM EST     12.00 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:34 AM EST     1.25 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:18 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 12:46 PM EST     13.61 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:56 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:34 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:16 PM EST     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

South Orrington, Penobscot River, Maine, Tide feet

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