Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Elk Rapids, MI
May 6, 2024 7:21 PM EDT (23:21 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:22 AM Sunset 8:49 PM Moonrise 4:28 AM Moonset 6:27 PM |
LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 349 Pm Edt Mon May 6 2024
Tonight - East wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday - Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Rain showers and isolated Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night - Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Patchy fog. Showers likely. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday - Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ300
No data
No data
FXUS63 KAPX 061944 AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 344 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A few areas may see frost tonight, mainly inland.
- Rain showers/thunder Tuesday/Tuesday night...lingering showers Wednesday especially north.
- Shower chances mainly Lower Michigan Thursday.
- More shower chances for the weekend?
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 334 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:
Cool night expected as high pressure slides into and to the east of Lake Huron. Pressure gradient mildly tightens on Tuesday in advance of the next system aloft with mildly breezy southeast winds. Large expansive upper low digs in across the center of the country, with a lobe of energy pinwheeling into northern Michigan from the southwest. Thus showers, and occasional thunderstorms, will be possible as lower pressure/sfc boundary moves into the region on Tuesday.
Primary Forecast Concerns:
Generally light winds tonight and could be a splotch of high level clouds try and work in tonight briefly. That being said, still expecting cool temperatures, dipping into the 30s across some areas.
Previous fcst leaned on statistical guidance for low temps, followed suit with a couple of spots across the interior approaching the mid 30s or so. Thus, have patchy frost in the interior, but overall not too confident nor is this expected to be expansive or significant with perhaps just a few brief hours in the 30s.
Cloud cover will be on the increase Tuesday as low pressure system spins across the Dakotas with mildly breezy southeast winds expected. Warm moist advection lifts into the region resulting in an initial band of showers likely, with a chance for embedded/isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon hours. Best potential for thunderstorm development looks to be across southwest northern lower, as the low level moisture increases and thus instability as well (at least thru Tuesday afternoon). Convective activity will continue into Tuesday night, read on for details.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 334 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024
Pattern Forecast: Anomalous upper low moving into the central Rockies today (-2 to -3 sigma 500mb standardized height anomalies)
will spin slowly northward across the High Plains through midweek...while kicking some height falls into the Great Lakes to start the long term forecast cycle. Short wave ridging will bridge over the top of this upper low...almost cutting it off but the end result will be some general "bagginess" to the upper level pattern across Michigan into Thursday and possibly lingering on Friday as well. Upper level ridging becoming better estabilished this weekend will send some additional short wave energy into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley Saturday.
Occluding low over western North Dakota will push an elongated occluded front into Lower Michigan Tuesday afternoon along with a short wave trough Tuesday night/Wednesday. Elongated mostly latent PV axis left behind running east-west across southern Ontario/Lower Michigan/Wisconsin Wednesday as upper short wave trough lingers...
general weakness in the surface pressure pattern though start to get rising pressures into the upper Lakes Wednesday night. As the upper trough begins to shift east Thursday looks like a couple of short wave troughs will move through the state...one crossing Lower Michigan/Ohio Valley...a second that is forecast to drop out of northeast Ontario and across the forecast area Thursday night.
Another short wave trough digs southeast out of central Canada and across the Great Lakes in the Saturday time frame.
Primary Forecast Concerns:
Rain showers/thunder Tuesday night...lingering showers Wednesday especially north: Northward lifting occluded front will have some dynamic support with it as a PV anomaly and the left exit region of a 100kt jet streak across southern Lower...weakening stability as well with some elevated CAPE. Precipitation chances may let up along the M-55 corridor overnight...but overall highest QPF across the Tip of the Mitt and eastern Upper (0.50" to 0.75") from 00z-12z Wednesday. Elevated CAPE will also allow for thunderstorm chances mainly across northern Lower/Straits region. On Wednesday deeper moisture lingers across Upper Michigan along a 700mb trough axis...
so light rain chances will continue across eastern Upper and the Straits region...with more sun probable the farther south you go.
Shower chances mainly Lower Michigan Thursday: Actually there is a chance we could get some rain into northern Lower Wednesday night...but short wave trough moving across far southern Lower/ northern portions of Indiana and Ohio with what should be deformation band of precipitation setting up across a good portion of Lower Michigan Thursday into Thursday night. Will have a north- south PoP gradient across the forecast area though three days out uncertain as to how far north precipitation chances might get.
More shower chances for the weekend?: After a respite on Friday next short wave digging southeast into the Great Lakes should bring more shower chances for the weekend...right now overall probabilities are pretty low but the better chance appears to be Saturday.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 146 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024
Generally light winds through the afternoon but local lake breezes across may produce a few gusts and shifting. Winds light and variable tonight becoming southeast early Tuesday.
Clouds and showers will be on the increase by the end of the TAF cycle, especially into Tuesday afternoon.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 344 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A few areas may see frost tonight, mainly inland.
- Rain showers/thunder Tuesday/Tuesday night...lingering showers Wednesday especially north.
- Shower chances mainly Lower Michigan Thursday.
- More shower chances for the weekend?
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 334 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:
Cool night expected as high pressure slides into and to the east of Lake Huron. Pressure gradient mildly tightens on Tuesday in advance of the next system aloft with mildly breezy southeast winds. Large expansive upper low digs in across the center of the country, with a lobe of energy pinwheeling into northern Michigan from the southwest. Thus showers, and occasional thunderstorms, will be possible as lower pressure/sfc boundary moves into the region on Tuesday.
Primary Forecast Concerns:
Generally light winds tonight and could be a splotch of high level clouds try and work in tonight briefly. That being said, still expecting cool temperatures, dipping into the 30s across some areas.
Previous fcst leaned on statistical guidance for low temps, followed suit with a couple of spots across the interior approaching the mid 30s or so. Thus, have patchy frost in the interior, but overall not too confident nor is this expected to be expansive or significant with perhaps just a few brief hours in the 30s.
Cloud cover will be on the increase Tuesday as low pressure system spins across the Dakotas with mildly breezy southeast winds expected. Warm moist advection lifts into the region resulting in an initial band of showers likely, with a chance for embedded/isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon hours. Best potential for thunderstorm development looks to be across southwest northern lower, as the low level moisture increases and thus instability as well (at least thru Tuesday afternoon). Convective activity will continue into Tuesday night, read on for details.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 334 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024
Pattern Forecast: Anomalous upper low moving into the central Rockies today (-2 to -3 sigma 500mb standardized height anomalies)
will spin slowly northward across the High Plains through midweek...while kicking some height falls into the Great Lakes to start the long term forecast cycle. Short wave ridging will bridge over the top of this upper low...almost cutting it off but the end result will be some general "bagginess" to the upper level pattern across Michigan into Thursday and possibly lingering on Friday as well. Upper level ridging becoming better estabilished this weekend will send some additional short wave energy into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley Saturday.
Occluding low over western North Dakota will push an elongated occluded front into Lower Michigan Tuesday afternoon along with a short wave trough Tuesday night/Wednesday. Elongated mostly latent PV axis left behind running east-west across southern Ontario/Lower Michigan/Wisconsin Wednesday as upper short wave trough lingers...
general weakness in the surface pressure pattern though start to get rising pressures into the upper Lakes Wednesday night. As the upper trough begins to shift east Thursday looks like a couple of short wave troughs will move through the state...one crossing Lower Michigan/Ohio Valley...a second that is forecast to drop out of northeast Ontario and across the forecast area Thursday night.
Another short wave trough digs southeast out of central Canada and across the Great Lakes in the Saturday time frame.
Primary Forecast Concerns:
Rain showers/thunder Tuesday night...lingering showers Wednesday especially north: Northward lifting occluded front will have some dynamic support with it as a PV anomaly and the left exit region of a 100kt jet streak across southern Lower...weakening stability as well with some elevated CAPE. Precipitation chances may let up along the M-55 corridor overnight...but overall highest QPF across the Tip of the Mitt and eastern Upper (0.50" to 0.75") from 00z-12z Wednesday. Elevated CAPE will also allow for thunderstorm chances mainly across northern Lower/Straits region. On Wednesday deeper moisture lingers across Upper Michigan along a 700mb trough axis...
so light rain chances will continue across eastern Upper and the Straits region...with more sun probable the farther south you go.
Shower chances mainly Lower Michigan Thursday: Actually there is a chance we could get some rain into northern Lower Wednesday night...but short wave trough moving across far southern Lower/ northern portions of Indiana and Ohio with what should be deformation band of precipitation setting up across a good portion of Lower Michigan Thursday into Thursday night. Will have a north- south PoP gradient across the forecast area though three days out uncertain as to how far north precipitation chances might get.
More shower chances for the weekend?: After a respite on Friday next short wave digging southeast into the Great Lakes should bring more shower chances for the weekend...right now overall probabilities are pretty low but the better chance appears to be Saturday.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 146 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024
Generally light winds through the afternoon but local lake breezes across may produce a few gusts and shifting. Winds light and variable tonight becoming southeast early Tuesday.
Clouds and showers will be on the increase by the end of the TAF cycle, especially into Tuesday afternoon.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI | 27 mi | 42 min | ENE 7G | 54°F | 29.97 | |||
| MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI | 61 mi | 42 min | N 2.9G | 55°F | ||||
| BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI | 77 mi | 42 min | NNE 8.9G | 55°F | 29.98 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KTVC CHERRY CAPITAL,MI | 8 sm | 28 min | N 05 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 63°F | 43°F | 48% | 29.93 | |
| KACB ANTRIM COUNTY,MI | 18 sm | 26 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 68°F | 36°F | 30% | 29.94 |
Gaylord, MI,
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