Wednesday, August21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Elk Rapids, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 8:35PM Wednesday August 21, 2019 5:05 PM EDT (21:05 UTC) Moonrise 10:41PMMoonset 11:40AM Illumination 63% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 318 Pm Edt Wed Aug 21 2019
Through early evening..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..North wind 10 to 15 knots. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..North wind 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday night..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Light winds. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ323 Expires:201908220330;;995441 FZUS53 KAPX 211918 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 318 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ323-220330-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elk Rapids, MI
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location: 44.82, -85.46     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 211912
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
312 pm edt Wed aug 21 2019

Near term (through tonight)
issued at 238 pm edt Wed aug 21 2019

Much cooler and drier air moving in...

high impact weather... None is expected.

Primary forecast concerns... Thunder chances.

The surface cold front continues to slowly trudge across northern
lower michigan at this hour. A few showers developed along just
ahead of this front across portions of northern lower earlier this
afternoon, even a thunderstorm near oscoda. Just a few remaining blips
on radar across northeast lower which could linger over the next
couple of hours. Otherwise, drier air should put any remaining
showers to bed later this afternoon with waning instability and
lack of heating diminishing the cumulus field as well. A moisture
starved short wave then moves through late tonight with little to
no affect on the region with the exception of advecting in even
drier cooler air. Lows tonight ranging from the cool mid 40s to
lower 50s.

Short term (Thursday through Saturday)
issued at 238 pm edt Wed aug 21 2019
high impact weather: minimal
a trough will continue to move across the northeast CONUS quebec as
a jet MAX rounds its axis while an amplified ridge trails,
stretching from the northern great plains up into hudson bay. A
surface cyclone is expected to continue its progression NE across
quebec and deepen slightly as it maintains healthy placement
underneath upper-level divergence before becoming mostly vertically
stacked and getting choked off from favorable temperature and
vorticity advection. As this cyclone progresses, an attendant cold
front sweeps across much of new england into the mississippi valley
during the forecast period. Strong surface high pressure builds
underneath subsidence at the upper-level ridge trough inflection
point in ontario.

Amplified flow provided between the aforementioned surface features
behind the cold front will spread cooler, dryer air southward into
the forecast area heading into the weekend. This continued CAA will
bring a taste of fall to many, keeping high temps in the upper-
60s low-70s across northern michigan Thursday and Friday. Low temps
those nights will also be chilly, dropping into the lower-40s and
perhaps upper-30s locally with weak surface winds and clear skies
expected overnight. As for precip, a very small chance exists
Thursday across NW lower mi. Mostly NW flow in the low to mid-levels
will come across lakes superior and michigan with potential marginal
instability as suggested by model forecast soundings. Specifically,
850mb temps near 5c overtop of lake temps near 20c creates delta ts
of about 15c, allowing for parcels lifted from the lake surface to
contain non-zero cape. This could be enough to spark a few showers
across the area. Otherwise, partly cloudy skies are expected
Thursday and Friday before clearing up on Saturday. The cooler,
dryer airmass in place with subsidence overhead should inhibit rain
chances from Thursday night into the weekend.

Long term (Saturday night through Wednesday)
issued at 238 pm edt Wed aug 21 2019
high impact weather: rain storm chances early next week
an amplified ridge is expected to be centered from the great lakes
up to james bay at the start of the forecast period as surface high
pressure encompasses much of the eastern CONUS and canada. A
trough approaches from the west along the international border
with a cyclone expected to form deepen in south-central canada as
a result of favorable upper-level support and potential transport
of warm, moist are poleward. The evolution timing of this feature
is the main focus for the long term forecast. Model guidance
hints at a cold front passage in association with this cyclone
early next week. While this system does provide the next main
chance for rain and possibly a few thunderstorms, considerable
uncertainty still exists in regards to favorable shear,
instability, and timing to comment on specific thunder severe
chances. Regardless, temperatures are expected to warm back up
into the upper-70s and low-80s, which would be slightly above
average for this time of year across northern michigan.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon)
issued at 138 pm edt Wed aug 21 2019
a surface cold front is currently moving across northern lower
michigan. Drier air will sweep in behind this front later this
afternoon and remain across the area for a few days. Perhaps an
isolated shower in the meantime but nothing significant is
expected. CIGS will be largelyVFR, although an MVFR cig may slip
in at times due to over lake instability. Northwest winds will be
a bit gusty at times, especially during the afternoon hours.

Marine
Issued at 238 pm edt Wed aug 21 2019
winds will continue to gradually pick up from the northwest this
afternoon... And will be gusty especially on whitefish bay st.

Mary's river and northern lake huron nearshore zones where small
craft advisories are in effect for later today and tonight.

Somewhat gusty winds Thursday afternoon with gusts to between 15
and 20 knots but no headlines will be issued just yet.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Thursday for lhz346>348.

Lm... None.

Ls... Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Thursday for lsz321-322.

Near term... As
short term... Mr djc
long term... Mr djc
aviation... Ajs
marine... As


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45183 23 mi36 min WSW 1.9 G 1.9 73°F 71°F1014.5 hPa
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 27 mi86 min WNW 6 G 8 77°F 1013.5 hPa
45022 45 mi36 min WNW 9.7 G 12 70°F 71°F1 ft1013.6 hPa58°F
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 61 mi86 min N 12 G 14 72°F 1015.6 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 77 mi86 min NNW 11 G 16 73°F 1015.2 hPa

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherry Capital Airport, MI9 mi73 minNW 7 G 1610.00 miMostly Cloudy76°F54°F47%1012.3 hPa
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI18 mi71 minNW 810.00 miFair78°F51°F40%1012.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTVC

Wind History from TVC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--N4NE3CalmCalm----------Calm--S3W4Calm----SW5N8NW8N8N12--NW12
G17
1 day agoN8NE8NE6CalmCalmCalm--------CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE5S6SW5SW7S9
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2 days agoSW16
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SW6SW4SW7NW7--SW3----CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4NE5554--N7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.