Thursday, December12, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Elk Rapids, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 8:01AMSunset 5:04PM Thursday December 12, 2019 9:30 AM EST (14:30 UTC) Moonrise 5:38PMMoonset 8:28AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 430 Am Est Thu Dec 12 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Today..South wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Slight chance of snow early in the morning, then chance of snow in the morning. Snow and rain in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Drizzle. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Friday..Light winds. Cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..Light winds. Chance of drizzle. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ323 Expires:201912121730;;230570 FZUS53 KAPX 120930 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 430 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ323-121730-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elk Rapids, MI
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location: 44.82, -85.46     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 121139 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 639 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 226 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

. More significant snow for parts of the area today .

High impact weather potential: Widespread accumulating snow producing significant travel impacts, especially across the Tip of the Mitt and eastern upper Michigan.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: Progressive northern stream flow continues, with steady height rises taking place overhead as deep trough responsible for shot of Arctic air is rapidly moving east into Quebec and New England. Off the deck thermal profiles have warmed considerably since this time yesterday, as evident by H8 level temperatures almost increasing by 10C. Per the usual with these dense cold airmasses, surface response to this warming is delayed, with current temperatures once again in the single digits and teens. Combination of those warming temperatures aloft and increasingly shallow convective depths has definitely disrupted the lake processes, with just shallow clouds and a few lingering flurries found across the area.

Break in our active weather sure won't last long, with water vapor imagery displaying sharp shortwave trough digging rapidly southeast across the Dakota's, with an expanding area of light to moderate snow along and just ahead of this wave. This "clipper" system will race east into and through the area later this afternoon and evening, bringing that widespread snow along with it.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Snow amounts and attendant headlines into this evening.

Details: Expect snow to rapidly spread into the area this morning, with the juxtaposition of deeper moisture and forcing from the approaching wave favoring the steadiest snows across the Tip of the Mitt counties and across eastern upper Michigan by later this morning through the afternoon. Overspreading of this deeper moisture across a still favorable over-water thermal gradient will likely ignite at least some lake response across northern Lake Michigan this morning. Hi-res guidance concurs, showing hints of at least some lake snows spreading north into the Straits and eastern upper Michigan. Not expecting this to be too big a deal given transient nature of any banding and shallow convective depths. Strong indication that a dry wedge centered just off the deck will spread northeast quickly this morning, ending the widespread snow threat across a portion of northern lower Michigan (especially south of M- 72), with chances for snow once again increasing later this afternoon as dry slot is lost (perhaps with a bit of a lake component into northwest lower Michigan). As for snowfall totals, good deep moisture and strong omega centered in an elevated/deep dendritic growth layer both support some decent totals across the north half of the area, likely ranging from 4 to 8 inches, with the greatest amounts along and north of the M-68 corridor . warranting a winter weather advisory for that area. Given that expected dry slot, expect snow totals to drop off fairly rapidly as one goes south, with likely just trace amounts down near Saginaw Bay. As for temperatures, development of south and southeast winds will definitely usher in a milder airmass, with much of the area ranging from the middle 20s to lower 30s by later this afternoon, with even slightly warmer readings in our far southwest and southeast counties.

Kinda an interesting and challenging forecast heading through tonight as forcing departs and moisture thins from top to bottom in the column. May see light snow/flurries transition freezing drizzle as ice nucleation is lost. To complicate matters, while inversion level temperatures become too warm for ice nucleation, they may be just cold enough to entice some lake moisture contribution into northwest lower Michigan . further moistening the low level environment in support for drizzle. Definitely something to monitor as we head into the evening hours. Otherwise, a downright mild night when compared to recent conditions, with temperatures remaining steady-state or even slowly rising into the 20s and lower 30s.

SHORT TERM. (Friday through Saturday) Issued at 226 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal

. Fairly Quiet Friday, more light Lake Effect late Saturday .

Synopsis/Forecast: Friday morning the weak clipper from Thursday will be filling in and weakening over northern Michigan. The decaying low will still influence our wind field though, as we hang on to light southerly winds. Also through the morning a subtle wave traversing the Rockies will spin up yet another weak compact low through the Central Plains before moving into the Ohio Valley. Overall, relatively little sensible weather over the area through mid-day thanks to a lack of forcing or moisture. As the fetch increases across the big lakes maybe some light flurries and/or freezing drizzle will get pushed into ern upper. Forecast soundings show little to no ice nucleation. A lot of these slight chance pops also depends on the exact position of the decaying surface low. Better snow chances slowly return Friday night as profiles saturate top down, allowing seeder-feeder processes to take over, especially in ern upper. Friday's highs are expected to be a couple degrees above normal.

Northwest flow kicks in Saturday with cold low-mid level air pouring into the region. The low pressure system crossing the Ohio Valley gets absorbed into an intensifying nor'easter. Increasing overlake instability late Saturday will bring more chances for lake effect as the day wears on. Slightly milder temperatures will continue Saturday before a return to colder conditions comes later in the weekend. Between the nor'easter and incoming high pressure, our winds will get increasingly breezy late Saturday evening and overnight.

LONG TERM. (Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 226 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

High Impact Weather: Minimal

Sunday into the beginning of the week bring multiple waves passing by, mainly to our north, that will each bring increased chances for lake effect. This mainly targets northwest flow belts on Sunday, then fans out some with a general decrease in likelihood as surface high pressure moves in Monday. There remains potential for a strong system to ride up through the Ohio Valley late Monday night into Tuesday. this could bring gusty winds and another round of synoptic snow, but confidence in this is very low at this point. The general pattern heading into midweek is more of the same as on the weekend: northwest flow with rounds of light lake effect possible. The extended period will run a couple degrees below normal.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) Issued at 632 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

More snowfall is on the way today as low pressure slides up through northern Lower lather today into this evening. This system will spread snow across northern Michigan, with the heaviest snow anticipated north of M-32 into the U.P. Conditions will gradually trend to MVFR and possibly IFR through the day . with the worst conditions at PLN . where several inches of snow is expected by later this evening. Snow to liquid ratios will be relative high, greater than 15 to 1. Much less snow expected elsewhere. Low clouds and mist/drizzle/freezing drizzle expected tonight, producing IFR conditions. Wind will become a bit gusty out of the south and southwest today, with a period of low level wind shear early this evening.

MARINE. Issued at 226 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

Another round of gusty winds, this time from the south and southeast, will bring small craft advisory conditions for many of our nearshore waters today into this evening. Well deserved break in the recent gusty winds looks to begin later tonight, lasting into the first half of the weekend.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 1 AM EST Friday for MIZ016>018- 086>088-095>099. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM EST Friday for LHZ348-349. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until midnight EST tonight for LHZ345>347. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 7 PM EST this evening for LMZ341-342. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM EST Friday for LMZ323-344>346. LS . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 7 PM EST this evening for LSZ321-322.

NEAR TERM . mb SHORT TERM . STJ LONG TERM . STJ AVIATION . mb MARINE . mb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 27 mi50 min S 6 G 9.9 21°F 1030.8 hPa
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 61 mi50 min ESE 8.9 G 16 20°F 1029.8 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 77 mi50 min ESE 11 G 18 22°F 1028.4 hPa

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherry Capital Airport, MI9 mi37 minVar 52.50 miLight Snow18°F12°F77%1030.8 hPa
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI18 mi35 minN 010.00 miOvercast17°F12°F85%1031.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTVC

Wind History from TVC (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNW14NW9NW8W10W13W13SW10W7SW5SW10
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2 days agoCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW6W4NW8NW7N11
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.