Wednesday, February24, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Elk Rapids, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:21AMSunset 6:22PM Wednesday February 24, 2021 9:53 PM EST (02:53 UTC) Moonrise 3:15PMMoonset 6:15AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 1100 Am Est Wed Feb 24 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Today..North wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Rain and snow likely. Waves 2 feet or less building to 3 to 5 feet in the afternoon.
Tonight..Northwest wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Chance of flurries. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Thursday..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday night..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ323 Expires:202102250000;;051618 FZUS53 KAPX 241600 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1100 AM EST Wed Feb 24 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ323-250000-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elk Rapids, MI
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location: 44.82, -85.46     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 250250 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 950 PM EST Wed Feb 24 2021

UPDATE. Issued at 942 PM EST Wed Feb 24 2021

Colder air is working back into northern MI, behind low pressure departing down the St Lawrence Valley. A wind-transverse band that worked into the area late today morphed into weak wind- parallel bands, before completely falling apart. Our nw flow and 850mb temps in the -9 to -12C range are enough for some lake processes (per banded clouds on satellite). But it is a struggle to generate precip, as shown on all area radars. There are some flurries still occurring beneath those radar beams, mainly in eastern upper MI (-SN reported at Kinross and Soo Canada). The longest fetch in the region is up there, so that makes sense. But cloud cover is tending to diminish elsewhere.

Expect cloud cover to continue to erode somewhat, more so in the south (south of M-72) than north (eastern upper MI). There is additional cloud cover over far western Superior and points west. This will edge back into the area toward daybreak.

Lowered min temps a smidge.

NEAR TERM. (Through Thursday) Issued at 354 PM EST Wed Feb 24 2021

. Nuisance light snow through Thursday .

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Elongated short-wave trough axis continues to move through the Great Lakes region with attendant 1000 mb surface low over southern Georgian Bay. Lead cold front stretches southwest down through Ohio. Secondary cold front/surface trough axis is moving through northern Michigan this afternoon producing our recent band of snowfall currently moving through the region Snow has been briefly heavy in spots. but moving through quickly.

Short-wave trough axis and attendant surface low will exit eastward into New England this evening while subtle short-wave ridging/surface high pressure build into the western Great Lakes. Weak wave of low pressure will follow, sliding through the northern lakes region on Thursday. Not expecting much with this next feature other than some spotty light snow and/or lake enhanced snow for parts of the area Thursday.

Details:

Ongoing corridor of (generally) light snow will continue to slide E/S through northern Lower Michigan over the next few hours and should be just about completely done by evening. Modest cold advection tonight with just barely enough over water instability (-9C to -12C H8 temps) to maybe generate a little bit of light lake induced precip . although most high-res CAM guidance is fairly dry through tonight.

Meanwhile, as mentioned, secondary weak low level wave of low pressure slides across the northern lakes region on Thursday. Moisture starved with weak forcing, I'm not expecting a lot, synoptically speaking. But just enough forcing/moisture/lake instability to kick off some lake snow showers into the snowbelts. Most favorable areas in NW Lower Michigan might see some light accumulation.

SHORT TERM. (Thursday night through Saturday) Issued at 354 PM EST Wed Feb 24 2021

. Turning Mild Again; Snow Showers Likely Friday Night .

High impact weather: None is expected.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Pops Friday night.

Upper level ridging across the region Thursday night slides off to our east Friday. So rather uneventful conditions are expected with a decent amount of sunshine anticipated on Friday. Models are in good agreement that Pacific energy will then move into the region Friday night likely bringing a period of light snow to much of northern Michigan overnight Friday into early Saturday. Snow accumulations are expected to be on the order of around an inch or less. Nearly zonal flow aloft follows on Saturday ending any lingering precipitation. Temperatures are expected to turn rather mild with highs of well into the 30s to the mid 40s and lows ranging from the mid teens to low 20s Thursday night then only dropping into the 20s Friday night.

LONG TERM. (Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 354 PM EST Wed Feb 24 2021

. Mild Overall with Occasional Light Precipitation Chances .

High impact weather potential: None is expected.

Arctic air is expected to remain off to our north for the most part through the long term. The one exception may be a transitory but modified piece of colder air moving in early next week. Otherwise, it should stay relatively mild over the next several days on into early March. Meanwhile, just a few chances for mainly snow showers from weak disturbances moving through the flow but no big systems of consequence are expected.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 951 PM EST Wed Feb 24 2021

MVFR cigs for part of this evening, and again Thu afternoon.

Colder air pushing in behind departing low pressure. This is producing lake effect clouds and a few flurries. MVFR to VFR cigs are present, but lower cigs should erode a bit tonight. Enhanced low-level moisture gradually returns to the area Thursday, resulting in cigs lowering back to MVFR in the afternoon, and a somewhat increased chance for snow showers.

Nw winds will diminish tonight, then back w and sw on Thursday.

MARINE. Issued at 354 PM EST Wed Feb 24 2021

Gustier northwest winds continue into tonight producing small craft advisory conditions. Winds will gradually weaken overnight. Going marine headlines expire on Lake Michigan by late evening and on Lake Huron toward Thursday morning. Marine headline free thereafter through Thursday night. Gusty winds and small craft advisories may return Friday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until midnight EST tonight for LHZ345-346- 349. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 4 AM EST Thursday for LHZ347-348. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until midnight EST tonight for LMZ323-341- 342-344>346. LS . NONE.

UPDATE . JZ NEAR TERM . BA SHORT TERM . AS LONG TERM . AS AVIATION . JZ MARINE . BA


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 27 mi73 min NNW 15 G 20 32°F 1021.3 hPa
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 61 mi73 min N 14 G 17 31°F 1022 hPa

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherry Capital Airport, MI9 mi60 minN 9 G 1710.00 miA Few Clouds28°F18°F66%1021.2 hPa
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI18 mi58 minNNW 610.00 miOvercast27°F19°F69%1020.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTVC

Wind History from TVC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW5S6S5S5CalmSE43E3N3NE5NE3CalmCalmNW7N9N10
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SW7------SW6SW5W11W11
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2 days agoS9
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SE34SE3CalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmW6SW4W7W8W14
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G28
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.