Wednesday, April1, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Greilickville, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 8:07PM Wednesday April 1, 2020 3:49 AM EDT (07:49 UTC) Moonrise 11:26AMMoonset 2:31AM Illumination 58% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 318 Am Edt Wed Apr 1 2020
Today..North wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Light winds. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday night..Light winds. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ323 Expires:202004011530;;392580 FZUS53 KAPX 010718 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 318 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ323-011530-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Greilickville, MI
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location: 44.82, -85.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 010645 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 245 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2020

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 243 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2020

. Gradually improving conditions today .

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: Upper level flow regime continues to amplify early this morning, with developing Upper Mississippi Valley ridging bookend by closed upper level lows . one centered across New England, with the other across southwest Canada. Low level moisture plume associated with that New England low remains centered right across our area, producing plenty of clouds and even a bit of patchy drizzle/light showers at times.

Amplifying pattern results in a slow moving one, and really expect only a very slow east progression to those larger scale features mentioned above. However, that slight east movement looks to be just enough to allow surface ridging to build overhead today and tonight, bringing gradually clearing skies and a bit warmer temperatures in the process.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Addressing any lingering drizzle threat early this morning, with focus centering on cloud and temperature trends thereafter.

Details: Still expect some lingering drizzle early this morning as what's left of low level moisture plume pivots overhead. Otherwise, cross section analysis and perusal of guidance derived soundings both suggest that moisture will gradually thin out through today (a bit slower than than earlier anticipated), ending the drizzle concern quickly this morning and likely resulting in some increasing sunshine this afternoon, especially across eastern upper and portions of northeast lower Michigan. That increasing sunshine will help modify the airmass some, so expect afternoon temperatures to be at least a few degrees warmer than those experienced yesterday.

Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies continue tonight as surface ridging centers itself right across our area. This, combined with light/calm winds, should promote some decent radiational cooling conditions, and would expect most interior areas to dip well into the 20s by sunrise Thursday.

SHORT TERM. (Thursday through Friday) Issued at 243 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2020

. Does the Rain Make It Here .

High Impact Weather Potential . Minimal

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast and possible outcomes . There isn't much to this next 48 hours, until towards the end as the rain to the west making it into the forecast area, by 12z/Sat. However, let's talk about how we get there, first. Thursday morning, the Omega Block is in full force, as the two anchoring 500 mb low are beginning to break down a bit as the easterly one off the Atlantic shore is beginning to fill with the stacking of the sfc and 500 mb lows. The westerly 500 mb low has become more broad, and the polar cold air looks to be rotating back poleward, flattening to southern part of the trough, and allowing the western jet to begin to transition into a more zonal pattern. So by 18z/Fri, the sfc trough is moving through the Midwest, from the Upper Mississippi Valley to the Upper Great Lakes. However, one thing that I note, is that the pressure pattern on the ECMWF begins to "break apart". What I mean is that The sfc trough has a saddle point with the best troughing north and south of that region. This usually signals that the upper support is splitting the flow with better forcing north and south of the region. So it would seem that the highest sfc pressures along the trough are targeting N Lower. So when the rain begins to move into the forecast area sometime around 09z/Sat the showers are going to be rather scattered.

LONG TERM. (Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 243 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2020

High Impact Weather Potential . minimal

Extended (Saturday through Tuesday) . The ridge and the blocking pattern look to break down on Saturday, so will leave the likely pops with the cold front that the consensus NBM has. However, looking at the qpf on the models, am wondering if the line will be much more scattered as it moves through, with even a break over the region. (see some of the discussion for this above). Sunday, dry air moves into the region behind the cold front. Sunday night looks dry, but the GFS brings in some rain overnight Sunday/early Monday morning. The ECMWF is slower with this feature. Monday, it looks like we get into a "dirty ridge" situation with moisture and energy rotating across the top of the ridge that is over the state. Tuesday, the GFS looks to produce a lot of rain as the next system gets organized west of the region. The ECMWF is much more what I would expect with the bulk of the energy in the northern stream and we get a dry break. Consensus (NBM) forecast will have chance pops, but if this pattern holds would think the ECMWF dry solution would be better.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 750 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020

Similar conditions to last night expected across the northern MI terminals to start the 00Z TAF valid time. Predominantly MVFR CIGs as a deep low-level moist layer and cyclonic flow continue to hang on. This scenario also continues to support patchy drizzle/freezing drizzle. The low-levels finally begin to dry out on Wednesday, with VFR conditions expected to return by late in the day. Light winds are expected through the entire period.

MARINE. Issued at 243 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2020

No significant marine concerns expected for the next several days as both winds and waves remain below advisory levels. Next chance for any appreciable rain holds off until Friday night and Saturday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . NONE. LM . NONE. LS . NONE.

NEAR TERM . mb SHORT TERM . JL LONG TERM . JL AVIATION . PB MARINE . mb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 27 mi70 min NE 12 G 14 38°F 1018.6 hPa
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 54 mi70 min NNE 5.1 G 7 39°F 1018.3 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 70 mi70 min N 6 G 8 39°F 1018.3 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherry Capital Airport, MI7 mi57 minN 310.00 miOvercast38°F34°F86%1017.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTVC

Wind History from TVC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4NE7NE10N8N9NE7NE8N5N7N8N7N7N9NE7N6N8NE5N5NE4NE5NE5NE7NE6N3
1 day agoNW10NW12
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2 days agoSE11
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.