Saturday, August17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Greilickville, MI

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:44AMSunset 8:41PM Saturday August 17, 2019 10:49 PM EDT (02:49 UTC) Moonrise 9:09PMMoonset 7:37AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 1023 Pm Edt Sat Aug 17 2019
Overnight..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..South wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..West wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Light winds. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ323 Expires:201908181030;;806252 FZUS53 KAPX 180223 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1023 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ323-181030-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Greilickville, MI
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location: 44.82, -85.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 180153
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
953 pm edt Sat aug 17 2019

Update
Issued at 953 pm edt Sat aug 17 2019
in the wake of a shortwave ridge now exiting across lake huron, a
prominent vort MAX is pushing into eastern wi. This is
contributing to some shower activity downstate. But our airmass
is drier up here, and a swath of cirrus is the only result over
our heads. Would not be shocked to see a few showers wobble as
far north as us-10 overnight, but not anticipating anything
getting here.

Meanwhile, a qlcs is inbound from western and northern mn. The
most intense elements are expected to dive se-ward with time, in
search of better instability than they will find here. Some
convective elements will advance across wi and western upper mi
overnight, but it is looking increasingly unlikely that anything
reaches here before 12z 8 am. Will remove any mention of precip
around and just after dawn.

Patchy fog could form most anywhere, but in particular in eastern
upper mi, which saw somewhat less vertical mixing today, and has
less in the way of cirrus presently.

Near term (through tonight)
issued at 334 pm edt Sat aug 17 2019

Quiet tonight...

high impact weather potential: none.

Pattern synopsis forecast: short-wave trough axis is now east of
lake huron with it's associated tight circulation center moving
through georgian bay. Subtle short-wave ridging is building in
behind but there is another short-wave trough sliding up through
wisconsin although with little fanfare. Weakening surface low is
across northern lake huron with weak surface high pressure
building into the region. Cloud cover has faded quite a bit
across the region through the day but there is a fair amount of
heating induced CU stcu across eastern upper and northeast lower
michigan as well some thicker high cloud cover sliding through.

Tonight: remaining convective cloud cover will fade quickly this
evening as we get into the diurnal cooling cycle. This will lead
to mostly clear skies save for some additional high cloud cover
moving through from precip moving by to our south.

Meanwhile further upstream, a fairly strong short-wave trough is
pressing into the northern plains with associated surface low
pressure across south-central canada and attendant cold front
stretching southward through the plains. This system will migrate
into the upper midwest toward Sunday morning before crossing the
region on Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop (or further develop) along the front as we go through the
night and edge into the western great lakes early Sunday morning.

All guidance solutions suggest that bulk of precip remains out of
the forecast area through tonight. Thus, i've removed precip
chances for most areas except for the far SW counties
late... Mainly to align with surrounding wfo's. But we will see
another increase in cloud cover during the overnight period.

Temperatures will fall back into the 50s most areas.

Short term (Sunday through Tuesday)
issued at 334 pm edt Sat aug 17 2019
high impact weather potential: marginal
pattern synopsis: an upper level low is currently treking through
northern saskatchewan manitoba, with a shortwave rotating around its
base near the us-canadian border. This wave crosses lake superior
and the u.P. Late Sunday, bringing the threat for showers and storms
ahead of it along a cold front. Behind this system zonal flow aloft
and weak surface high pressure moves in for Monday. Another waves
will swing around the main low for Tuesday, bringing more precip for
Tuesday.

Forecast details concerns: storm chances Sunday afternoon evening
a surface low currently in saskatchewan will continue occluding
through the rest of today. A secondary low forms along the triple
point in northern manitoba and it will be this low that pushes a
cold front through our area. Guidance is in fairly decent agreement
that FROPA will occur Sunday evening (sometime between 8pm and
midnight). Out ahead of the front WAA will dominate through the day,
with precipitation along the associated warm front crossing the
region in the morning. Models have been consistently showing a surge
of moisture out ahead of the front, with pwats increasing to 1.75"
in the afternoon and dewpoints climbing into the upper 60s. Some
pockets of MLCAPE around 1,000 j kg combined with bulk shear in the
low 30 kts may lead to some stronger storms, especially in the
evening. Before the evening timeframe many ingredients will simply
not be in place for strong to severe storms. Better shear values and
overall dynamics move in after sundown, but at this point we will
have lost a lot of our instability. As the cold front sweeps out of
the area Monday morning subsidence drying behind it will lead to a
dry and calm day with plenty of sun. By Monday night surface high
pressure will be directly overhead, leading to a cool and clear
night. Tuesday starts off dry as high pressure slides off to our
east, but showers and storms are possible late (see long term).

Highs will trend a couple degrees warmer each day, with highs in the
upper 70s Sunday, to the possible mid 80s by Tuesday.

Long term (Tuesday night through Saturday)
issued at 334 pm edt Sat aug 17 2019
high impact weather potential: minimal
a long wave, positive-tilt trough will pivot into the great lakes
from canada late Tuesday and Wednesday before making its way into
new england. At the surface, a cyclone located near james bay will
propagate to the east while an associated cold front extends to the
southwest across the forecast area. This frontal passage, coupled
with upper-level support provided by divergence from the approaching
trough, could bring showers and a few thunderstorms to the region
during that timeframe, but marginal instability (at best) should
limit overall severe potential. Surface high pressure is expected to
build into much of the north-central CONUS behind this trough.

Somewhat enhanced north northwesterly flow between the
aforementioned surface features should funnel cooler air into
northern michigan and limit northward progression of warm, moist air
to the south, making for a relatively cool and dry end to the week
with high temps in the low to mid-70s.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Sunday evening)
issued at 801 pm edt Sat aug 17 2019
some MVFR fog at pln overnight. Showers on Sunday may bring brief
restrictions.

Low pressure will advance from the central plains to the northern
great lakes thru Sunday. Fog could form overnight, especially in
far northern lower mi, but not as much fog stratus as last night.

Clouds and showers will expand back into the region from W to e
Sunday. For the most part conditions will beVFR, but occasional
MVFR vsbys CIGS are possible with more intense showers. A few
t-storms are also possible.

Light winds tonight. S to SW winds will become breezy on Sunday.

Marine
Issued at 334 pm edt Sat aug 17 2019
winds diminish for tonight. But, a cold front will edge into the
region on Sunday and cross northern michigan Sunday night.

Stronger SW winds develop on Sunday and will likely require small
craft advisory headlines for at least the lake michigan nearshore
areas, and possibly a few other marine zones.

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible Sunday with the front.

Winds veer into the NW Sunday night into Monday and will
gradually diminish.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Update... Jz
near term... Ba
short term... Stj
long term... Stj djc
aviation... Jz
marine... Ba


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45183 15 mi20 min S 1.9 G 3.9 71°F 69°F1013 hPa
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 27 mi49 min SW 2.9 G 5.1 65°F 1012.2 hPa
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 54 mi70 min Calm G 4.1 70°F 1012.9 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 70 mi70 min S 4.1 G 6 69°F 1012.5 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherry Capital Airport, MI7 mi57 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy70°F64°F84%1011.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTVC

Wind History from TVC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4--S3----------CalmS4--W4W83W8--W944SW4CalmNE5N3Calm
1 day ago----Calm--------S3W3------S5S7SW6S7SW7--S7S8
G15
S4S5--3
2 days agoNE9NE8SE4E3E4SE3NE3CalmE4CalmE54CalmSE6SW4W34NE6N3N6--N3SE4SE4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.