Thursday, September24, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Greilickville, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:28AMSunset 7:33PM Thursday September 24, 2020 7:55 PM EDT (23:55 UTC) Moonrise 3:06PMMoonset 11:49PM Illumination 52% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 359 Pm Edt Thu Sep 24 2020
Tonight..Light winds becoming south 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..South wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ323 Expires:202009250745;;305281 FZUS53 KAPX 241959 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 359 PM EDT Thu Sep 24 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ323-250745-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Greilickville, MI
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location: 44.82, -85.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 242300 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 700 PM EDT Thu Sep 24 2020

NEAR TERM. (Through Friday) Issued at 354 PM EDT Thu Sep 24 2020

. Well above normal temperatures continue .

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis/forecast:

Rather sharp mid level shortwave trough digging southeast across the western Great Lakes early this afternoon as weak surface boundary/cold front works slowly south into northern lower Michigan. Earlier more organized showers/storms along this surface front have largely ended as initial weak mid level support detaches to the east. Still plenty of clouds and a few lingering lighter showers dotting the landscape, with temperatures remaining several degrees above normal for this time of year.

Front will briefly stall out across northern Michigan this evening, eventually returning north as a warm front overnight into Friday. Despite presence of front, complete dearth of mid and upper level dynamics supports little in the way of any active weather with this frontal passage.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Addressing fog and light shower potential tonight into early Friday. Cloud and temperature trends through the period.

Details:

Will continue to hedge the forecast toward the drier end of the guidance spectrum tonight as core of mid level support passes well off to our south. Suppose an isolated shower may pop up along the front, but most definitely much of area and most of the time will remain dry. Partly to mostly cloud skies expected, with just enough nocturnal cooling and near-surface moisture to support some patchy fog during the early morning hours. Temperatures will remain well above normal, with overnight readings only falling into the 50s.

Mid level heights will be on the rebound Friday as weak warm front continues its northward push across the area. Once again, lack of any deep layer forcing and a pronounced dry mid level environment supports no shower activity . although suppose some low clouds, fog, and patchy drizzle is possible during the morning across eastern upper Michigan. Easily biggest story for Friday will be maintenance of well above normal temperatures, with clearing skies from south to north and increasingly gusty southwest winds only helping the warming cause. Expect highs to be well up into the 70s, especially across northern lower Michigan, with at least some areas more than likely making a run at the 80 degree mark.

SHORT TERM. (Friday night through Sunday) Issued at 354 PM EDT Thu Sep 24 2020

. Mild but Breezy Weekend .

High Impact Weather Potential . Breezy conditions may periodically produce hazardous beach conditions, especially on Lake Michigan coasts.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast . Relatively zonal flow is expected across the lower 48 states through the period. The most significant ripples within the flow should track near the U.S./Canada border with one progged for later Friday night into Saturday and the next expected by Saturday night into early Sunday. The best chances for showers and a few storms will accompany these disturbances. However, given the relatively mild/ humid conditions (for September), and breezy conditions, a shower/storm could pop other times as well. At this point, the expected track of the disturbances, and associated surface reflection, favor the most numerous showers/storms across eastern Upper and the Tip of the Mitt through the period. Enjoy the 70+ degree highs for most locations this weekend . as we may not see them again for a while.

LONG TERM. (Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 354 PM EDT Thu Sep 24 2020

High Impact Weather Potential . Frost/Freeze conditions possible by midweek.

The upper-level flow across North America amplifies significantly during the extended range of the forecast. The eastern 2/3 of the continent will be impacted by a deepening trof. This cold trof and disturbances within the flow will support periodic showers during the period. Temperatures will trend colder as well, with much of the forecast area likely struggling to get temperatures out the 40s for daytime highs by Thursday.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 700 PM EDT Thu Sep 24 2020

Stationary front parked over Northern Lower Michigan will hold over our area thru tonight . and will then make a push northward into Eastern Upper Michigan on Friday. Areas of low stratus and fog across far Northern and NE Lower Michigan (PLN and APN) will expand a bit further inland tonight as ample low level becomes trapped below the nocturnal inversion. Conditions across the rest of Northern Lower Michigan (TVC and mbL) will remain VFR thru the night further away from the stationary front and associated low level moisture. Conditions across far Northern and NE Lower Michigan will improve to VFR by midday Friday as the stationary front begins to push northward into Eastern Upper Michigan. Light/variable winds tonight will become southerly and strengthen to 10 to 20 kts on Friday . with some higher gusts expected.

MARINE. Issued at 354 PM EDT Thu Sep 24 2020

Light winds tonight gives way to increasingly gusty southwest winds Friday, with southwest winds, at times gusty, continuing through much of the weekend. Strongest winds expected Friday into Friday night, likely producing small craft advisory level conditions, especially on Lake Michigan and Lake Superior. Next chance of any widespread showers arrives Friday night along a passing cold front, with even a few thunderstorms possible.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . NONE. LM . NONE. LS . NONE.

NEAR TERM . mb SHORT TERM . PB LONG TERM . PB AVIATION . MR MARINE . mb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45183 15 mi56 min N 5.8 G 5.8 62°F 61°F1 ft
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 27 mi76 min ENE 14 G 16 67°F 1013.2 hPa
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 54 mi76 min S 1.9 G 5.1 70°F 1013.9 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 70 mi76 min S 6 G 12 66°F 1013.5 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherry Capital Airport, MI7 mi63 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy68°F62°F81%1012.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTVC

Wind History from TVC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW3CalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmS3S4S4CalmSW7S3SW3CalmS34SE7N7N6NE6N4N3Calm
1 day agoSW6S3S4SW3S3CalmSW5SW4S3CalmCalmCalmCalmS3W45Calm44NE4W9
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmS5S5S7S7W3S6SW4S5CalmS3SW446SW6SW6SW8SW7SW6SW8W10SW8
G15

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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