Thursday, April22, 2021
Privacy Policy
L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tides
Greilickville, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 8:32PM Thursday April 22, 2021 9:57 AM EDT (13:57 UTC) Moonrise 2:06PMMoonset 3:57AM Illumination 81% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 313 Am Edt Thu Apr 22 2021
Today..West wind 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 20 knots in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ323 Expires:202104221515;;931800 FZUS53 KAPX 220713 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 313 AM EDT Thu Apr 22 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ323-221515-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Greilickville, MI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 44.82, -85.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KAPX 221335 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 935 AM EDT Thu Apr 22 2021

UPDATE. Issued at 935 AM EDT Thu Apr 22 2021

Morning analysis reveals upper level trough axis extending from Quebec down through New England with short-wave ridging building through the Upper Midwest. N-S oriented compact upper jet max is diving into the northern lakes with associated tail-end of an upper vorticity max clipping the N/E part of the CWA. Just enough background forcing . coupled with some lake contribution . to kick off some light snow showers earlier in the morning and create slick spots.

At the surface, sprawling high pressure is situated over the lower Mississippi River Valley with subtle ridging extending up through the western Great Lakes. A fair amount of dry air encompasses the Great Lakes with PWAT values at or below one quarter of an inch. So other than our nuisance cloud cover (and earlier showers) there is a good amount of clear skies upstream.

First off, most locations under the freeze warning are already at or above freezing So. we've gone ahead and cancelled the freeze warning a little ahead of schedule.

Meanwhile, tail-end of vorticity max will slide down through the central Great Lakes through the afternoon with short-wave ridging building into the western Great Lakes later in the afternoon through tonight. Associated Precip appears to be about done with, but there will be some associated cloud cover sliding down through mainly the eastern part of the region over the next several hours. Otherwise, given the degree of dry air across the region, warming aloft and daytime heating/mixing, most areas will end up with a good amount of sunshine.

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 340 AM EDT Thu Apr 22 2021

Impactful weather: Minimal/none.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Upper level troughing was moving into the eastern states early this morning, with ridging working into the nrn Plains and Central Canada. A weak shortwave with minimal forcing on the backside of the troughing was crossing nrn Michigan, while CU debris/convection from WI yesterday evening continues to work eastward across nrn lower Michigan. This is likely aided is some fashion by still cold enough lower level temperatures for overlake instability and subsequent moisture flux off the Great Lakes. Otherwise, low level temperatures were moderating, with low to mid level warm advection on the rise, ahead of the upstream upper ridging.

The weak shortwave exits this morning, while the upstream ridging marches eastward, settling over nrn Michigan by daybreak Friday. The current convective debris/snow showers are expected to decay this morning, probably in some degree by pressing further away from Lake Michigan. The weather becomes pretty quiet, with just maybe a few to scattered high-based cumulus over NE lower, and some increased high level cloud spilling in via northerly upper level winds ahead of the approaching ridging. Skies will be decreasing in cloudiness by evening, with clear/mostly clear skies for most of tonight. The entire time, low to mid level temperatures continue to warm, and we start breaking this recent cold snap.

High temperatures will mostly be 45F to 50F, with some lower 50s in downsloping areas in the far SE CWA. Lows will mostly be in the low to mid 30s with upper 30s across much of the GTV Bay region/coastal counties of Lake Michigan. Thus, do not think another freeze warning for agriculture interests there will be needed.

SHORT TERM. (Friday through Saturday Night) Issued at 340 AM EDT Thu Apr 22 2021

High Impact Weather Potential: Low for now

Pattern Synopsis:

An amplified trough will continue to work its way off the Atlantic coast as temporary ridging slides overhead on Friday. Subsidence aloft behind this trough will build surface high pressure across most of the eastern CONUS heading into the weekend. Two separate shortwaves are expected to progress across the Midwest and far SE CONUS Saturday, providing favorable ascent aloft to support cyclogenesis/surface pressure falls across these respective regions.

Forecast/Details:

Friday will be a pleasant spring day for most of the CWA, especially when compared to the first half of this week. Highs look to reach into the 50s with low 60s across NE lower underneath partly cloudy skies during the afternoon. A very dry low-level airmass will be in place which will keep the first half of the period precip-free. The main focus will be Saturday when the next rain chances - and potentially some more flakes of snow ( . sigh . ) - arrive, beginning in the early AM hours. Support aloft provided by the aforementioned shortwave will help spark some showers along somewhat nebulous surface convergence - call it an ill-defined, elongated surface trough, or even a sad warm front if you'd like - that looks to stretch from SW to NE across a chunk of northern lower. The best chance for Saturday AM showers is expected to be along this subtle forcing across the southern half of the CWA, especially with closer proximity to Saginaw Bay. Additional chances will exist across eastern upper where these respective showers may last into the late morning/early afternoon.

A second round of precip is expected to initiate along and ahead of an approaching cold front moving in from Wisconsin Saturday afternoon/evening. These rain showers are expected to initiate across far NW lower and migrate eastward across the area with time Saturday evening. Once again, rain showers will also be possible across eastern upper behind the front. Some heavier downpours may be possible with the presence of non-zero instability confined to the low/mid levels despite cool surface temperatures. As the low-level profile cools rather quickly heading into Saturday night with cold advection behind the front and the cessation of diurnal heating, snowflakes may mix in with ongoing precip. Additionally, light lake effect snow can't be ruled out as NW winds spread across the area the further we go into Saturday night despite marginal conditions to support it. As this week has shown, you can't underestimate the Great Lakes' willpower to generate nuisance snow - especially this late in April. It just does not want to let go of winter, unlike most of us around here that are ready for a real spring.

LONG TERM. (Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 340 AM EDT Thu Apr 22 2021

High Impact Weather Potential: Monitoring the middle of next week for active weather.

The aforementioned shortwave should quickly progress east of the Great Lakes on Sunday as amplified upper-level ridging takes ahold of the eastern CONUS at the start of next week. Southerly low-level winds on the backside of dominant surface high pressure centered over the Atlantic coast will advect a warm, moist - and essentially summer-like - airmass northward all the way into the Great Lakes by Tuesday. Highs in the 70s are expected across northern lower Tuesday afternoon, which would be around 15 degrees warmer than normal for the end of April.

The main focus of the long term will be the return of a more active pattern to round out the month. Highly amplified troughing is expected to gradually slide across the center of the country through the middle of next week, providing support aloft for systems to trek across the Plains and into the Great Lakes region. While specifics regarding feature placement and strength are very murky, enough confidence exists in deterministic and ensemble guidance to take note of this period ahead. Current confidence lies in a less progressive pattern than some model depictions (ECMWF) through the middle of next week as guidance typically struggles to handle strong, amplified ridging correctly - specifically how long they stay put. That being said, belief is that the pattern will feature more meridional flow through the troposphere with increasingly amplifying upper-level features and, when combined with an airmass that may push climatological max PWAT values, could be an early signal towards heavy rainfall potential for the Great Lakes during the middle/end of next week.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) Issued at 540 AM EDT Thu Apr 22 2021

. VFR the entire TAF period .

High pressure will drift across the lower Mississippi valley and toward the mid Atlantic/SE states tonight. A sfc ridge axis will drive through nrn Michigan, shifting westerly winds more SW late today and tonight, with some minor gustiness expected this afternoon. FEW-SCT high based cumulus expected today at APN with added high level cloud at all airports. The cumulus and higher cloud fade this evening with skies becoming clear/mostly clear.

MARINE. Issued at 340 AM EDT Thu Apr 22 2021

High pressure will drift across the lower Mississippi valley and toward the mid Atlantic/SE states tonight. A sfc ridge axis will drive through nrn Michigan, shifting westerly winds more SW today and tonight. Low end advisory gusts are expected this afternoon for far nrn Lakes Michigan and Huron, and possibly again Friday afternoon in the same areas. Afternoon lake breezes/onshore flow expected today and tomorrow on Whitefish Bay and for the nearshore waters south of Alpena.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 7 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345>347. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 7 PM EDT this evening for LMZ341-342. LS . NONE.

UPDATE . BA NEAR TERM . SMD SHORT TERM . DJC LONG TERM . DJC AVIATION . SMD MARINE . SMD


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 27 mi77 min NW 12 G 13 42°F 1016.6 hPa
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 54 mi77 min W 12 G 16 39°F 1018.3 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 70 mi77 min W 13 G 15 37°F 1018.6 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
Last
24hr
N6
G9
NW6
G14
W9
G12
W10
G15
NW8
G13
NW7
G14
N7
G15
N5
G11
N7
G12
NW5
G8
W6
G9
W4
W3
SW4
G7
SW4
G7
SW6
G10
SW7
G12
W11
G15
W8
G13
W7
G10
W7
G10
W6
G11
W8
G11
W8
G11
1 day
ago
N6
G10
NW6
G11
W7
G13
NW7
G14
NW7
G13
NE6
G11
NW7
G12
NW6
G13
N5
G12
N5
G11
N3
G8
N3
N1
NE4
NE4
G7
E3
G6
E3
NE1
E2
E4
NE3
SE1
--
2 days
ago
NW12
G19
W10
G15
W9
G15
W10
G14
W6
G10
W10
G13
W10
G15
W8
G12
NW5
G11
W6
G9
NW5
G9
NW7
G10
NW6
G14
N6
G11
N7
G10
NW5
G9
N5
G11
NW7
G12
NW6
G10
NW7
G13
NW8
G13
NW4
G9
NW4
G8
NW6
G11

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherry Capital Airport, MI7 mi64 minVar 410.00 miMostly Cloudy35°F25°F67%1016.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTVC

Wind History from TVC (wind in knots)
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
Last 24hrNW8N10NW84N11N9
G19
N10N8N8N5N6CalmS3CalmS3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalm4
1 day agoNW8NW9
G17
NW11NW12NW11
G20
NW11NW15
G24
N10
G15
NE11NE10NE7N8N8
G16
N9N9N7N7NW64N7N8N5NW8N9
2 days agoW10NW12
G21
W15
G22
W15
G25
W14W13
G20
W15
G21
W10NW13
G20
NW8NW9
G18
NW14
G21
NW14
G22
W10
G21
NW13
G21
NW12
G19
NW17
G26
NW11NW12
G21
NW12
G20
NW13NW12
G22
N14
G21
N11
G18

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
       (on/off)   Help Weather Map
wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station




Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE.