Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Greilickville, MI
July 3, 2024 1:38 AM EDT (05:38 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:01 AM Sunset 9:25 PM Moonrise 2:26 AM Moonset 7:04 PM |
LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 1055 Pm Edt Tue Jul 2 2024
Overnight - Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest early in the morning. Showers early in the evening. Isolated Thunderstorms through the night. Numerous showers after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday - Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday night - Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday - Light winds. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ300
No data
No data
FXUS63 KAPX 030357 AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1157 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A few thunderstorms producing locally heavy rain at times tonight.
- Trending dry for the Independence Day holiday (Thursday).
- Heavy rain and possible stronger storms return for the weekend.
UPDATE
Issued at 1053 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Current forecast remains on track as rain with embedded thunderstorms is beginning to spread across northwest lower and areas near Saginaw Bay. As noted in the short term discussion below, convective cores within this activity may lead to locally heavy rainfall tonight in the midst of an environment supportive of efficient rain (PWATs near 1.7" on this evening's 00Z launch).
Heaviest rainfall overnight is anticipated across northwest lower and eastern upper Michigan where localized amounts over 1" will be possible. However, most areas are more likely to see around 0.5" by Wednesday morning. Rain chances will diminish from west to east during the morning hours, leaving mostly sunny skies in place by the afternoon.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 259 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Pattern Synopsis/Pattern Forecast:
Increasingly moisture rich southwest flow overspreading the area early this afternoon...with northern Michigan sandwiched between Gulf States centered subtropical ridge and broad troughing slicing east across central Canada into the northern Plains. Initial wing of moisture advection into the region mostly of the elevated type, with stubborn to yield low level dry air remaining the main detriment to more widespread rain this afternoon. Juxtaposition of better deep layer moisture advection and a more unstable atmospheric profile remains just a bit upstream, and that indeed is where the most organized and intense rain has remained.
Upstream troughing and embedded shortwave will continue to work east into the western Great Lakes tonight into early Wednesday. Attendant cold front will lead the charge, bringing with it a more organized rain threat tonight.
Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges:
Main focus and shower and thunderstorm evolution and possible heavy rain threat tonight.
Details:
Low level jet forced moisture advection will only increase with time this evening into the overnight, sending precipitable water values to over an inch and a half. Isentropic upglide will become maximized on the nose of this 50+ knot southwest low level jet, with pattern recognition strongly supporting an expanding area of rain within this forced ascent axis. While primary corridor of instability folds south with time, just enough elevated instability looks to remain to produce at least some embedded non-severe thunderstorms. Given available moisture through a deep layer of the atmosphere and what appears to be an appreciable warm cloud depth, we should see some rather respectable rainfall rates...especially with any deeper convective cores. Axis and orientation of low level jet argues for a relatively narrow corridor of heavier rain potential. Still some discrepancy where this axis will center itself, but trends generally support tip of the mitt counties into eastern upper Michigan for heaviest rain potential. Wouldn't be terribly surprised to see an inch or more where this axis lines up. Enough to produce some local ponding on roads and in poor drainage areas, but otherwise no significant impacts expected. Definitely a mild night, with most areas not falling out of the 60s.
Front sweeps rapidly east of the area Wednesday morning, ending the rain threat for most in the process. Post-frontal west synoptic flow definitely supports the all to typical lake breeze convergence corridor across central upper Michigan during the afternoon.
Lingering moisture looks more than adequate to potentially kick off a few showers and perhaps isolated thunderstorms in this region during the afternoon. Post-frontal cold air advection far from impressive, helping temperatures recover into the upper 70s and lower/middle 80s during the afternoon.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 259 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
Longwave troughing swinging through the area will keep the Great Lakes Region active throughout the long-term. A shortwave trough will track overhead late Thursday night into Friday, increasing higher to mid level clouds ahead of a deepening low pressure system that will track into the region for the weekend.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
- Independence Day: A shortwave trough will track overhead Thursday evening. Looking at forecast soundings, it appears that the atmosphere will be too dry in the lower levels to support rainfall on Independence Day. However, clouds will build in later in the evening in response to the aforementioned shortwave. Mainly Westerly winds will create a downsloping component across Northeast lower, making temperatures warmer in these areas (mid 80s) compared to elsewhere in Northern Michigan (high 70s to low 80s).
- Weekend Precipitation Chances: Attention then quickly turns to a trough and its associated low pressure digging across the Midwest and into the Great Lakes Region for Friday/ Saturday. Current guidance continues to show moderate instability and a relatively deep moisture fetch (PWATS above 1.2") into the region for this weekend. The most favorable day for possible strong to severe? storms to develop will be Friday, but showers are expected to continue through most of the weekend and an embedded rumble of thunder or two cannot be ruled out. Stay tuned as we continue to fine tune these details!
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 1156 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Rain and embedded rumbles of thunder continue to spread across northern Michigan as associated CIGs will lower tonight, and are expected to drop to MVFR across most of the area shortly after 06Z.
IFR CIGs are also anticipated for many areas late tonight into Wednesday morning. Brief drops to MVFR VSBYs will be possible within heavier rainfall. Strong winds just off the surface lead to the inclusion of LLWS across all northern lower Michigan TAF sites into Wednesday morning. Cloud cover will clear from west to east as rain chances depart Wednesday morning, leaving VFR conditions in place from late morning/early afternoon Wednesday through the end of the issuance period.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1157 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A few thunderstorms producing locally heavy rain at times tonight.
- Trending dry for the Independence Day holiday (Thursday).
- Heavy rain and possible stronger storms return for the weekend.
UPDATE
Issued at 1053 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Current forecast remains on track as rain with embedded thunderstorms is beginning to spread across northwest lower and areas near Saginaw Bay. As noted in the short term discussion below, convective cores within this activity may lead to locally heavy rainfall tonight in the midst of an environment supportive of efficient rain (PWATs near 1.7" on this evening's 00Z launch).
Heaviest rainfall overnight is anticipated across northwest lower and eastern upper Michigan where localized amounts over 1" will be possible. However, most areas are more likely to see around 0.5" by Wednesday morning. Rain chances will diminish from west to east during the morning hours, leaving mostly sunny skies in place by the afternoon.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 259 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Pattern Synopsis/Pattern Forecast:
Increasingly moisture rich southwest flow overspreading the area early this afternoon...with northern Michigan sandwiched between Gulf States centered subtropical ridge and broad troughing slicing east across central Canada into the northern Plains. Initial wing of moisture advection into the region mostly of the elevated type, with stubborn to yield low level dry air remaining the main detriment to more widespread rain this afternoon. Juxtaposition of better deep layer moisture advection and a more unstable atmospheric profile remains just a bit upstream, and that indeed is where the most organized and intense rain has remained.
Upstream troughing and embedded shortwave will continue to work east into the western Great Lakes tonight into early Wednesday. Attendant cold front will lead the charge, bringing with it a more organized rain threat tonight.
Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges:
Main focus and shower and thunderstorm evolution and possible heavy rain threat tonight.
Details:
Low level jet forced moisture advection will only increase with time this evening into the overnight, sending precipitable water values to over an inch and a half. Isentropic upglide will become maximized on the nose of this 50+ knot southwest low level jet, with pattern recognition strongly supporting an expanding area of rain within this forced ascent axis. While primary corridor of instability folds south with time, just enough elevated instability looks to remain to produce at least some embedded non-severe thunderstorms. Given available moisture through a deep layer of the atmosphere and what appears to be an appreciable warm cloud depth, we should see some rather respectable rainfall rates...especially with any deeper convective cores. Axis and orientation of low level jet argues for a relatively narrow corridor of heavier rain potential. Still some discrepancy where this axis will center itself, but trends generally support tip of the mitt counties into eastern upper Michigan for heaviest rain potential. Wouldn't be terribly surprised to see an inch or more where this axis lines up. Enough to produce some local ponding on roads and in poor drainage areas, but otherwise no significant impacts expected. Definitely a mild night, with most areas not falling out of the 60s.
Front sweeps rapidly east of the area Wednesday morning, ending the rain threat for most in the process. Post-frontal west synoptic flow definitely supports the all to typical lake breeze convergence corridor across central upper Michigan during the afternoon.
Lingering moisture looks more than adequate to potentially kick off a few showers and perhaps isolated thunderstorms in this region during the afternoon. Post-frontal cold air advection far from impressive, helping temperatures recover into the upper 70s and lower/middle 80s during the afternoon.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 259 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
Longwave troughing swinging through the area will keep the Great Lakes Region active throughout the long-term. A shortwave trough will track overhead late Thursday night into Friday, increasing higher to mid level clouds ahead of a deepening low pressure system that will track into the region for the weekend.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
- Independence Day: A shortwave trough will track overhead Thursday evening. Looking at forecast soundings, it appears that the atmosphere will be too dry in the lower levels to support rainfall on Independence Day. However, clouds will build in later in the evening in response to the aforementioned shortwave. Mainly Westerly winds will create a downsloping component across Northeast lower, making temperatures warmer in these areas (mid 80s) compared to elsewhere in Northern Michigan (high 70s to low 80s).
- Weekend Precipitation Chances: Attention then quickly turns to a trough and its associated low pressure digging across the Midwest and into the Great Lakes Region for Friday/ Saturday. Current guidance continues to show moderate instability and a relatively deep moisture fetch (PWATS above 1.2") into the region for this weekend. The most favorable day for possible strong to severe? storms to develop will be Friday, but showers are expected to continue through most of the weekend and an embedded rumble of thunder or two cannot be ruled out. Stay tuned as we continue to fine tune these details!
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 1156 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Rain and embedded rumbles of thunder continue to spread across northern Michigan as associated CIGs will lower tonight, and are expected to drop to MVFR across most of the area shortly after 06Z.
IFR CIGs are also anticipated for many areas late tonight into Wednesday morning. Brief drops to MVFR VSBYs will be possible within heavier rainfall. Strong winds just off the surface lead to the inclusion of LLWS across all northern lower Michigan TAF sites into Wednesday morning. Cloud cover will clear from west to east as rain chances depart Wednesday morning, leaving VFR conditions in place from late morning/early afternoon Wednesday through the end of the issuance period.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
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Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KTVC
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Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KTVC
Wind History graph: TVC
(wind in knots)
Gaylord, MI,
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