Thursday, December5, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
St. Albans, VT

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 4:14PM Thursday December 5, 2019 11:48 AM EST (16:48 UTC) Moonrise 2:21PMMoonset 1:08AM Illumination 63% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Albans, VT
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location: 44.83, -73     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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FXUS61 KBTV 051454 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 954 AM EST Thu Dec 5 2019

SYNOPSIS. Scattered to occasionally numerous snow showers or periods of very light snow are expected through Friday as weak waves of low pressure move through the region. Activity will be most focused across northern counties today and tonight, then across southern counties on Friday. Seasonably cold and dry weather returns for the upcoming weekend before milder temperatures and increasing chances of light rains or snows arrive by Monday into Tuesday of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 946 AM EST Thursday . Made some minor tweaks to PoPs. It looks as though a period of drier mid-level air will enter the dendritic growth zone towards noon. This dry entrainment looks to be fairly short-lived though, and conditions will remain favorable for snow showers across the high peaks and immediate eastern slopes once Froude numbers become greater than one, which should occur around 10-11am. So did accelerate the trend in lower PoPs this afternoon, but then tried to level off the decreasing PoPs into this evening. All else is on track.

Prior discussion . Mainly a persistence forecast will be offered through tonight with latest guidance remaining largely consistent with prior output. Well advertised upper trough continues to swing through the area today with scattered to occasionally numerous snow shower activity, most focused across northern valleys and northern high terrain. Tropospheric moisture profiles are rather unimpressive however (PWATS < 0.33 in.) so precipitation should generally remain on the light side. Highest coverage should occur this morning with attendant surface trough passage, then become increasingly confined to elevated terrain this afternoon as boundary layer flow trends unblocked. Highs today to be fairly similar to Wednesday's readings - mainly upper 20s to mid 30s.

Snow showers continue tonight across northern higher terrain as the aforementioned trough pulls east, though will wane in coverage over time as moisture profiles thin and the dendritic snow growth zone trends largely unsaturated. Additional 24-hr accumulations from this morning through sunrise Friday to range from a dusting to 1 inch in the valleys, that occurring mainly this morning, and from 2 to 4 inches in elevated northern terrain with local amounts to 6 inches possible near summit level in the northern Greens. Low temperatures tonight somewhat colder in post-frontal northwesterly flow - mid teens to lower 20s.

On Friday we'll continue to watch additional weak clipper-type energy tracking east-southeast from the Great Lakes states as a secondary, weaker upper trough swings into the region. Latest trends in guidance have shifted slightly south with this feature and as such have kept higher probabilities across south and southwestern zones accordingly. Minor additional accumulations from a dusting to 2 inches will be possible in these areas with far northern counties generally remaining dry with a few peaks of partial sunshine possible. Temperatures continue to run on the seasonably cold side, a trend quite common over the last month - mid 20s to around 30.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 340 AM EST Thursday . Surface high pressure ridges over the area for Friday night into Saturday. Drier weather is expected as Clipper system moves well East of New England. Colder than normal temperatures are expected with lows in the single digits and teens, followed by highs only ranging through the 20s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 340 AM EST Thursday . Surface high will crest over the North Country Saturday night, then continue to slide eastward on Sunday. As high slides eastward, southerly return flow develops headed into Sunday night and Monday. A large scale low pressure system strengthens over the Great Lakes region, and low level warm air advection is expected for monday. Some spotty rain and snow showers will move into the area. Some pockets of freezing rain are possible in the more sheltered valleys early Monday. As aforementioned low lifts northeastward, precipitation will change to all rain during the afternoon Monday. Winds will be a bit gusty with approaching frontal system, out of the south/southwest. On Tuesday, low will lift through Saint Lawrence valley, and cold front will push into the area later in the day. Periods of rain are anticipated for Monday night and early Tuesday, before colder air moves in and changes rain to snow showers for Tuesday night into Wednesday. Lows will be above freezing Monday night, and highs on Tuesday could reach the mid and upper 40s in the valley areas. As the rain showers transition to snow showers expect some light accumulations over the higher terrain. Cyclonic flow persists in the wake of the front with the upper trough lingering. Lake effect and upslope snow showers will persist into Wednesday afternoon with additional light accumulations possible. Highs will drop back into the 20s for Wed and Thu.

AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Through 12Z Friday . A mix of mainly VFR/MVFR through the period with scattered/numerous morning snow showers lessening in coverage and becoming increasingly confined to higher terrain by afternoon/evening as sfc front pushes east. Occnl IFR expected in steadier morning snow showers. Winds trending west/northwesterly 6 to 12 kts and becoming gusty into the 15-20 kt range this afternoon before abating after 00Z.

Outlook .

Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. Patchy BR. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA, Chance SN. Monday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely RA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. VT . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . JMG NEAR TERM . Haynes/JMG SHORT TERM . Neiles LONG TERM . Neiles AVIATION . JMG


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Franklin County State Airport, VT9 mi53 minW 43.00 miFog/Mist34°F32°F95%1003 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFSO

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Last 24hrS3CalmS4S3S4S5S4S4S6S5S4CalmS5S3S4S5S4S3CalmW6CalmCalmW3W3
1 day agoN9
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N4NW5NW4NW4CalmE3CalmCalmCalmSW3CalmS3S3S3S5S3S4S6S4S5S5S5S6
2 days agoN4N7N9
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Tide / Current Tables for Sorel, Quebec
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Sorel
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Thu -- 12:07 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:18 AM EST     0.86 meters Low Tide
Thu -- 07:18 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:55 AM EST     0.87 meters High Tide
Thu -- 01:22 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:07 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:42 PM EST     0.84 meters Low Tide
Thu -- 10:08 PM EST     0.84 meters High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.90.90.90.90.90.90.90.90.90.90.90.90.90.90.80.80.80.80.80.80.80.80.8

Tide / Current Tables for Islets Perces, Quebec
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Islets Perces
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Thu -- 12:06 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:20 AM EST     0.75 meters Low Tide
Thu -- 07:17 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:19 PM EST     0.79 meters High Tide
Thu -- 01:21 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:06 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 04:53 PM EST     0.78 meters Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.80.80.80.70.70.80.80.80.80.80.80.80.80.80.80.80.80.80.80.80.80.80.8

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.