Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lincoln Beach, OR

SHORT TERM
Now through Saturday Night...Satellite imagery as of early Thursday afternoon depicts mostly clear skies across northwest Oregon and southwest Washington, except for lingering marine stratus along the central Oregon coast. Temperatures are expected to peak in the mid to upper 70s today for interior valleys (warmest closer to the Portland-Vancouver Metro), and upper 50s to upper 60s along the coast (warmest toward the north Oregon coast due to clearer skies). Relative humidities were lowered across the area today except for the coast as observations have been trending much drier than originally forecast.

The upper level ridge that brought us dry weather with clear skies the last couple days is now being pushed eastward by an incoming upper level trough. This trough has a slight negative tilt to it, turning flow aloft more southeasterly. Isolated thunderstorms that may pop up in southwest Oregon could be pushed northwestward due to the southeast steering flow.
Therefore, a slight chance (15-20%) for thunderstorms was included in the forecast across Lane County this evening from the Cascades to the coast. Expect any thunderstorms that do develop to remain well below severe thresholds given lack of vertical wind shear. Main impacts from passing thunderstorms include lightning, small hail, and gusty and erratic winds.

Warm and mostly dry conditions persist across the area Friday and Saturday as the upper trough evolves into a closed low and drops south toward central California. Wrap around moisture on the northern periphery of this low will maintain a chance of showers across the southern extent of the area into the weekend, with the best precipitation chances confined to the Linn and Lane County Cascades through Saturday. Will need to continue to monitor thunder potential over the next few days, but chances generally remain below 15% for Friday and Saturday as increasing cloud cover helps to limit instability. Can't rule out some convective debris (remnants of thunderstorms) moving into the area from northern California and southern Oregon.

Meanwhile, expect areas west of the Cascades to generally remain dry through the weekend as the low drops farther south.
The increased cloud cover and shower potential over Lane County will also contribute to a fairly sizable temperature gradient from south to north, with the Eugene area likely to be in the low to mid 60s from Friday to Saturday while the Portland area remains in the mid to upper 70s. -Alviz/CB

LONG TERM
Sunday through Wednesday...Temperatures will drop off more substantially Sunday and Monday as the upper low moves into the Great Basin and ushers in broad onshore flow across the Pacific Northwest. This will bring daytime highs closer to seasonal norms in the low to mid 60s through the early part of next week. High pressure will re-build across the area, returning predominately dry conditions on Sunday.

A passing shortwave trough may bring a few showers to to the area on Tuesday, but do not see any indications of meaningful precipitation at this time. Beyond Tuesday, the majority of WPC ensemble clusters favor a return of upper level ridging over the region mid to late next week, resulting in another warming trend as daytime highs potentially climb back up into the 70s for the latter half of next week. -Alviz/CB

AVIATION
Widespread VFR under mostly clear skies across the airspace. The exception at this time is for areas along the coast south of KONP, but the current MVFR conditions have a 25-35% probability of briefly improving to VFR around 00Z Friday. Winds will generally stay light and variable for most terminals.
Terminals along the Columbia River Gorge will see increased easterly winds around 8-10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt through 02Z Friday.

There is potential for isolated shower and thunderstorm development in the Lane County Cascades/foothills southward.
Satellite imagery is showing some clouds bubbling along the Cascades. Will continue to monitor as areas around KEUG could see some showers with a 15% probability for thunderstorms through 06Z Friday. A stronger push of moisture is expected for this area towards 12Z Friday and this has a stronger probability for bringing VFR/MVFR conditions.

PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions under clear skies with light northwest winds turning more easterly with gusts up to 15 kt through at least 02Z Friday. Afterwards, winds become light and variable. /42

MARINE
Strong high pressure offshore will maintain northerly to northwesterly winds across the coastal waters through the upcoming weekend. North to northwesterly winds will begin to increase Friday night, with gusts up to 25 kt and these winds will slowly spread southward across all waters through Friday night. At the same time, a building westerly swell will result in seas building towards 7 to 11 ft. As a result have adjusted and added Small Craft Advisories for all waters and these conditions are expected to persist through at least Saturday evening.
Afterwards, winds and sea will slowly subside to below Small Craft Conditions by the start of next week. /42

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 5 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ251>253.

Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Friday to 5 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ271>273.