Thursday, July18, 2019 L-36.com


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Marine Weather and Tides
Lincoln Beach, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:43AMSunset 8:55PM Thursday July 18, 2019 10:50 AM PDT (17:50 UTC) Moonrise 9:23PMMoonset 6:23AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ255 Coastal Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or Out 10 Nm- 852 Am Pdt Thu Jul 18 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 5 pm pdt this afternoon through late tonight...
Rest of today..N wind 10 to 15 kt. Gusts to 25 kt late in the afternoon. Wind waves N 4 ft at 5 seconds. W swell 6 ft at 9 seconds. SEcondary swell sw 3 ft at 16 seconds.
Tonight..N wind 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt, easing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt by midnight. Wind waves N 4 ft at 6 seconds. NW swell 6 ft at 9 seconds. SEcondary swell sw 3 ft at 15 seconds.
Fri..N wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, rising to 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves N 4 ft at 5 seconds. NW swell 6 ft at 9 seconds.
Fri night..N wind 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt, easing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt after midnight. Wind waves N 5 ft at 7 seconds. NW swell 5 ft at 9 seconds.
Sat..N wind 15 to 20 kt. Gusts to 20 kt, becoming 25 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves N 4 ft at 6 seconds. NW swell 5 ft at 8 seconds.
Sat night..N wind 15 to 20 kt. Gusts to 25 kt, becoming 20 kt by midnight. Wind waves N 4 ft at 6 seconds. NW swell 4 ft at 9 seconds.
Sun..N wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. W swell 4 ft.
Mon..N wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. NW swell 4 ft.
PZZ200 852 Am Pdt Thu Jul 18 2019
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. High pressure will reside over the waters through Friday night and then weaken over the weekend. A thermally-induced trough along the south oregon coast will strengthen in the afternoon and evenings today through Friday. A developing low in the ne pacific on Sunday will weaken the surface pressure gradient across the oregon and washington coastal waters Sunday and Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lincoln Beach CDP, OR
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location: 44.86, -124.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 181701
afdpqr
area forecast discussion
national service portland or
946 am pdt Thu jul 18 2019

Synopsis Building high pressure across the region will result in
a warming and drying trend through the weekend before cooler
temperatures and more marine clouds return next week.

Short term Today through Sunday... Water vapor satellite
imagery continues to reveal a shallow and broad shortwave trough
over the eastern gulf of alaska and canadian rockies. A distinct
vort MAX just west of haida gwaii is dropping southeastward towards
the pacific northwest and will move across washington state tonight.

Visible satellite imagery this morning also reveals a mass of marine
clouds banked up against the cascades across the southeastern half
of the CWA this morning. These clouds are beginning to retreat and
should scatter out this afternoon as daytime heating acts to
destabilize and mix out a lot of the lingering moisture. In the
meantime, a few light showers and areas of drizzle should continue
in the oregon cascades and adjacent foothills through midday.

Elsewhere, visible satellite imagery shows a random patchwork of
clouds offshore and across the northwestern half of the CWA this
morning. This pattern is indicative of some shallow instability
lingering behind the front. The aforementioned vort MAX off haida
gwaii will reinforce onshore flow across our northern coastal zones
tonight and will keep a chance of light showers across the north
oregon and south washington coast tonight into Friday morning.

Otherwise, models are in decent agreement 500mb heights will build
across the region Friday through Sunday as a weak shortwave ridge
traverses and builds across the pacific inland northwest. In
addition, winds will turn weakly easterly at 850mb beginning Friday
night and continuing through at least Saturday night. This should
result in high temperatures warming well into the 80s in the
willamette valley and columbia river gorge for Saturday and Sunday
with plenty of sunshine areawide this weekend. Neuman

Long term Sunday night through Thursday... No overarching changes
added to the previous forecast package. Will be watching for
potential cascade crest thunderstorms on Monday as the upper flow
turns a bit more southerly. Previous discussion from 3 pm follows: a
high pressure ridge over the northern rockies will persist through
much of next week. This ridging pattern will keep temperatures
fairly mild, skies clearer and conditions dry through much of the
forecast area. A shortwave trough is advancing towards the coast on
Monday. This trough, while staying mostly offshore, will bring a
chance of clouds to the coast and foothills Monday through Tuesday
morning. On Wednesday, another shortwave will pass over southwest
washington. This shortwave, combined with southwesterly flow, will
advect marine stratus over the coast, foothills, and potentially
spread into the valley. Clouds will be more concentrated during the
evening and morning hours.

Aviation GenerallyVFR along the coast and in the interior
valleys as of 16z. Considerable stratocumulus clouds on the east
side of the willamette valley to the cascades, where areas of
MVFR likely exist. Northwest low-level flow through early
evening will help to maintain sct-bkn stratocumulus, especially
over the south washington and north oregon cascade foothills.

However,VFR conditions should prevail across the area late this
morning through at least 06z fri. Guidance suggests MVFR stratus
returns to the south washington and north oregon coast around 06z
fri and spreads into the south washington interior lowlands and
up the columbia river to near kttd by 12z fri. Weishaar
kpdx and approaches...VFR conditions will be dominant through
Thursday. Around 00z, an offshore sea breeze will increase gust
speeds for a few hours near 21 kts. As those gusts die off and
winds become variable in the evening, northwesterly flow will
push a weak marine layer over the airport overnight. Conditions
at that time will become MVFR until sunrise. -anderson

Marine High pressure will remain over the waters through the
weekend, but start to weaken Friday night or Saturday morning. A
thermally-induced surface trough develops over the south oregon
waters today. This will result in gusty north wind over pzz255
and pzz275 late this afternoon. Current small craft advisory
looks good. The pattern repeats itself Friday, but some models
suggest small craft advisory level wind speeds spread into the
south end of pzz250 and pzz270 late Friday afternoon. Will assess
the need for additional advisories in the afternoon forecast. The
surface gradient weakens over the weekend as surface low pressure
develops out near 130w late sat.

Latest buoy observations show a long period (16+ second) 2-4 ft
sw swell continues to dominate the seas. Expect persistent
northwest winds over the NE pacific to build a 9-10 second nw
swell with heights around 6 feet into the waters that will
persist through the weekend. Weishaar

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Wa... None.

Pz... Small craft advisory from 5 pm this afternoon to 2 am pdt
Friday for coastal waters from cascade head or to florence
or out 60 nm.

Small craft advisory from 6 am to 10 am pdt Friday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBEO3 - 9435380 - South Beach, OR 16 mi50 min NNE 7 G 11 63°F 63°F1019 hPa (+0.7)
NWPO3 - Newport, OR 17 mi50 min NNW 8.9 G 11 62°F
46097 21 mi120 min N 9.7 62°F 62°F1018.4 hPa
46050 - STONEWALL BANKS - 20NM West of Newport, OR 28 mi30 min N 12 G 14 1019.8 hPa
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 48 mi50 min 65°F1019.3 hPa (+1.1)

Wind History for South Beach, Yaquina River, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Newport, Newport Municipal Airport, OR19 mi75 minNNW 87.00 miMostly Cloudy63°F55°F77%1020 hPa

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Tide / Current Tables for Kernville, Siletz River, Oregon
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Kernville
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Thu -- 02:00 AM PDT     6.02 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:46 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:23 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:31 AM PDT     -0.50 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:46 PM PDT     4.93 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:57 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:22 PM PDT     1.96 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:22 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.75.665.853.92.51.20.2-0.4-0.40.31.52.844.84.94.63.93.12.422.12.8

Tide / Current Tables for Newport, Yaquina Bay and River, Oregon
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.