Tuesday, May26, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lincoln Beach, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:32AMSunset 8:47PM Tuesday May 26, 2020 12:34 PM PDT (19:34 UTC) Moonrise 7:51AMMoonset 11:47PM Illumination 22% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ255 Coastal Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or Out 10 Nm- Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or From 10 To 60 Nm- 315 Am Pdt Tue May 26 2020
Today..N wind 5 to 10 kt, rising to 15 to 20 kt. A few gusts to 25 kt will be possible south of cape perpetua late in the afternoon. Wind waves N 2 ft at 5 seconds. W swell 4 ft at 12 seconds.
Tonight..N wind 15 to 20 kt. A few gusts to 25 kt will be possible south of cape perpetua early in the evening. Wind waves N 3 ft at 7 seconds. W swell 4 ft at 11 seconds.
Wed..N wind 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Wind waves N 3 ft at 6 seconds. W swell 3 ft at 10 seconds.
Wed night..N wind 15 to 20 kt. Gusts to 25 kt in the evening. Wind waves N 3 ft at 6 seconds. W swell 3 ft at 10 seconds.
Thu..N wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Wind waves N 3 ft at 5 seconds. W swell 2 ft at 9 seconds.
Thu night..N wind 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Wind waves N 3 ft at 5 seconds. W swell 7 ft at 14 seconds.
Fri..N wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. W swell 8 ft.
Sat..NW wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. W swell 7 ft.
PZZ200 315 Am Pdt Tue May 26 2020
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. High pressure over the northeast pacific and weak thermal low pressure over interior california will lead to a fairly typical summertime north to northwesterly wind pattern across the waters through the end of the work week. Expect winds to peak during the late afternoon and evening hours each day.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lincoln Beach CDP, OR
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location: 44.86, -124.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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FXUS66 KPQR 261700 AAA AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion . Update National Weather Service Portland OR 959 AM PDT Tue May 26 2020

SYNOPSIS. Morning clouds and areas of drizzle will give way to increasing sunshine today as high pressure develops over the northeast Pacific. A warming trend will push temperatures above seasonal normals Wednesday through Friday. Low pressure moving into the area from the south will bring a chance for thunderstorms Friday night and Saturday, followed by a return to cooler temperatures.

UPDATE. Made a few quick changes to the forecast this morning, mainly to hold on to a bit of drizzle until midday . especially in the higher terrain. Given anticipated cloud cover and moist low levels, we lowered fcst high temps this afternoon by 1-3 degrees PDX metro northward. Still, expect at least partial sunshine this afternoon with temps just a little above late May normals. Weagle

SHORT TERM. Today through Thursday Night . The remnants of the shortwave trough are visible in satellite imagery over the northwest Oregon and southwest Washington this morning. While the trough was the dominant feature on Mon it has since moved out of the area and high pressure, centered over the Pacific, is building. During the transition, winds will become northerly with increasing gusts along the coast and the southern Willamette Valley. By Wed, conditions will settle and the ridge will fully form over the area. An inverted thermal trough will push northward over the next several days causing temperatures to increase steadily through Thu. Likely temps will reach the upper 70s to low 80s Wed afternoon, increasing further on Thu. Temps easily could reach the mid 80s inland on Thu, but general onshore flow will keep the coastal areas more mild. -Muessle

LONG TERM. Friday through Monday night . Conditions begin to become more active on Fri as a vertically stacked low advances towards the area from the Southwest CONUS. This system will likely bring showers to much of the forecast area Fri night through the weekend. In addition to rain, there is a slight chance of thunderstorms throughout the Cascades and Willamette Valley. Much of the convection with this system is elevated, so the thunderstorm potential will rely on the low pressure system's track, speed, and getting sustained periods of easterly winds. Forecast soundings are showing that much of the easterly winds are concentrated aloft around 4000 - 6000 ft in elevation. These winds in combination with the orographic effects of the Cascades should provide enough lift for thunderstorms. In addition, with wind speeds around 5000 ft reaching 35+ kt, any storms that do develop could push further west into the Valley. Thus, put slight chance through much of the forecast area Sat morning and afternoon.

Numerical models are both realizing this scenario with the strengthening low pressure advancing northward. However, long term guidance in the GFS and ECMWF do have some distinct differences. The ECMWF is trending a bit slower than the GFS which would, in theory, keep the thunder chances persisting slightly later through the southern regions of the forecast area. The GFS on the other hand is advancing quicker causing thunderstorm potential to exit the area Sat afternoon. Given the variability, leaned more towards the GFS, but slowed down the progression slightly. Ultimately, it will come down to when the easterly winds transition to a more southwesterly flow. Once the winds switch, convection will likely be cut off.

On Sun the remnants of the passing low will keep the area in showers although accumulations will be light. Rain should all dissipate Sun night as weak high pressure once again develops through Mon. -Muessle

AVIATION. Daytime heating and increasing north to northwesterly winds under developing high pressure should lead to all TAF sites trending to predominantly VFR between 18z-21z Tuesday. Conditions should then remain predominantly VFR at all sites through the remainder of the 18z TAF period, but cannot rule out some temporary MVFR and IFR restrictions developing along the coast towards 12z Wednesday. In regards to precipitation, patchy light drizzle is possible through about 18/19z. Otherwise expect dry conditions. -TK/Neuman

KPDX AND APPROACHES . Low level moisture and light winds will lead to a mixture of VFR and MVFR conditions this morning before any low clouds scatter out and conditions become entirely VFR towards 18-21z Tuesday. Brief periods of very light drizzle will also be possible at the start of the 18z TAF, before drying out completely this afternoon. Conditions should remain predominantly VFR through 12z Wednesday as a typical summertime northwesterly wind pattern takes hold under developing high pressure aloft. -TK/Neuman

MARINE. A typical summer-time north-northwesterly wind pattern will take hold today and continue through the end of the work week as high pressure develops over the northeast Pacific and thermal low pressure develops over interior California and the Great Basin. Expect seas to generally hold in the 4 to 6 ft range through early Thursday. Winds will peak during the late afternoon and evening hours each day. Winds will also likely be strongest across the waters off the central coast of Oregon and should generally peak around 20 kt. There are hints that gusts could peak around 25 kt briefly this evening and again on Wednesday evening across waters off the central Oregon coast, but confidence in these materializing is low given the pattern. Do believe there is a better chance of these higher gusts occurring Thursday evening, though. Models suggest stronger north to northwesterly winds will occur on Friday into Friday night, but given the pattern, am highly skeptical of it so have held winds and seas in the official forecast below most model guidance. It should be noted that seas will still be elevated during this time as a 8-9 ft westerly swell moves through the waters. High pressure should then build back across the waters from the southwest over the weekend. This will likely bring lighter winds across the waters and allow seas to slowly subside back below 5 ft late in the weekend and early next week. /Neuman

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . None. WA . None. PZ . None.



Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland www.twitter.com/NWSPortland

This discussion is for Northwest oregon and Southwest Washington from the Cascade crest to 60 nm offshore. This area is commonly referred to as the forecast area.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBEO3 - 9435380 - South Beach, OR 16 mi47 min NNW 13 G 19 58°F 59°F1020.5 hPa
NWPO3 - Newport, OR 17 mi35 min N 17 G 19 55°F
46097 21 mi105 min N 16 56°F 57°F1020.7 hPa
46050 - STONEWALL BANKS - 20NM West of Newport, OR 30 mi25 min N 16 G 19 56°F 58°F1021 hPa51°F
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 48 mi47 min 58°F1021.5 hPa

Wind History for South Beach, Yaquina River, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Newport, Newport Municipal Airport, OR19 mi40 minNNW 14 G 1910.00 miFair59°F53°F82%1021.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KONP

Wind History from ONP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr----NW5NW8NW10NW8NW10N9N6CalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW5N8N11N11N13
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1 day agoNW5NW8NW10NW11N9N7N8N4NW5N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalm--------
2 days agoN13NW12
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N11N5CalmCalmCalmCalmE4E3CalmCalmE3E4E3E4CalmCalmNW4NW4

Tide / Current Tables for Kernville, Siletz River, Oregon
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Kernville
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:14 AM PDT     5.71 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:36 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:50 AM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:01 AM PDT     -0.67 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:31 PM PDT     4.44 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:50 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:45 PM PDT     2.19 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.24.25.25.75.6542.81.50.4-0.4-0.7-0.40.51.72.93.94.44.443.42.72.32.2

Tide / Current Tables for Newport, Yaquina Bay and River, Oregon
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.