Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lincoln Beach, OR

SHORT TERM
Now through Sunday Night...Fairly benign weather across the PacNW as high pressure continues to dominate the Pacific NW and NE Pacific Ocean. Clear skies have allowed for efficient cooling across the region, leading to cold overnight conditions. Current temperatures are generally in the mid to upper 20s west of the Cascades. Northerly winds around 5 to 10 mph are helping drop the apparent temperature (feels like) into the upper teens to low 20s for many locations. A Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect until noon today for areas west of the Cascades, including the Coast and the Columbia River Gorge and Upper Hood River. Conditions will also be cold in the Cascades but Cold Weather Advisory criteria is colder than lower elevations and is not expected to be met.

Cold overnight to morning temperatures will continue through Monday morning, though the chances for meeting Cold Weather Advisory criteria decreases each night. Tonight looks decent for another night hitting advisory criteria but conditions won't be as widespread as the previous night. Probabilities for temperatures to drop to or below 25 degrees are highest in the southern Willamette Valley at 70-90% while the northern Willamette Valley is only 40-50%. The Portland/Vancouver metro is even lower at 20-30% except for the more rural locations that range from 60-80%. Sunday night into Monday morning looks unfavorable for advisory criteria cold as cloud cover increases and winds decrease leading to only a 10-20% chance of reaching 25 degrees in the southern Willamette Valley, Clark county lowlands, and the Coast Range valleys.

Transport winds have increased and as a result have helped to mix the air trapped at or near the surface. Therefore, have expired the Air Stagnation Advisory. However, transport winds do decrease towards the latter part of this weekend and into the start of next week. So, another Air Stagnation Advisory may be warranted, mainly for the Willamette Valley depending on how long conditions are expected to persist. -19

LONG TERM
Monday through Friday...Models and their associated ensembles are starting to show a pattern shift next week as a trough digs across the Pacific. This may weaken the anchored ridge enough to finally see a substantial change by the middle/end of the upcoming week. Ensembles agree that a weak short wave and associated cold front will pass through the region during the Sunday night through Monday night timeframe.
However, precipitation is negligible (if any) for the area with at most a few hundredths of an inch. Even if this system brings little in the form of precipitation, it will still play an important role in breaking the ridge down and setting the stage for more beneficial precipitation toward the middle/end of next week. Ensemble guidance remains in agreement that a moderate, Pacific low will finally break down the strong ridging over the region by midweek, though details are still unclear. At this time, model ensemble guidance is pointing towards a moderate PoP (35-60% chance) with relatively low/moderate QPF (0.10-0.50 inches total) event. At this point, there are no major impacts expected with this weather system, and if precipitation does occur, it would be more beneficial than impactful, especially after the recent dry spell. /42/19

AVIATION
High pressure will maintain VFR conditions with sunny skies today. Tighter pressure gradients between KTTD and KDLS will lead to breezy easterly winds through the Columbia River Gorge and far east Portland Metro (KTTD) with gusts up to 25 kt. Offshore winds continue along the coast with light northerly winds across the Willamette Valley.

Tonight into early Sunday, the highest chances for LIFR conditions due to fog are around 15-25% across the southern Valley, mainly between 12-18z Sunday. Low confidence for fog as Sunday morning low temperatures across the Willamette Valley are forecast to fall to the upper 20s again. This will lead to another round of widespread frost, especially over metal surfaces. Will see high clouds gradually increase over the area after 12z Sunday ahead of a weak system.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR through the TAF period with sunny skies today and increasing high clouds early morning Sunday. Variable winds around 5 kt or less. Expect another round of frost overnight.
-10

MARINE
Expect fairly benign conditions, especially by January standards, to continue across the coastal waters the next several days. Easterly to northeasterly winds continue as the thermal trough remains over the area. Winds slowly decrease through the weekend followed by a switch to southerly winds on Monday as a weak weather disturbance passes by primarily to our north. Through early next week wave heights hold between 3-6ft.
Our next frontal system of note likely approaches the waters by the middle of next week increasing chances for Small Craft Advisory conditions, particularly on Wednesday. Given the uncertainty in the track and strength of this disturbance, confidence decreases in the wave height forecast mid-week onward but the GEFS does indicate a 20-30% chance for wave heights to exceed 15 ft as early as Wednesday evening. -99/19

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Cold Weather Advisory until noon PST today for ORZ101>125.

WA...Cold Weather Advisory until noon PST today for WAZ201>210.

PZ...None.