Sunday, March7, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Sturgeon Bay, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:16AMSunset 5:49PM Sunday March 7, 2021 9:18 PM CST (03:18 UTC) Moonrise 3:56AMMoonset 12:32PM Illumination 30% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ521 Green Bay South Of Line From Cedar River To Rock Island Passage And North Of A Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Green Bay South Of Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- 340 Pm Cst Fri Jan 29 2021
Tonight..E wind 5 to 10 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of flurries after midnight.
Saturday..E wind 10 to 20 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of flurries.
Saturday night..E wind 10 to 20 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of light snow.
Sunday..NE wind 15 to 25 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of light snow. Wave height forecast is for ice free areas. This is the last issuance of the nearshore marine forecast for the bay of green bay for the season. The forecast for the bay will resume on or around april 1.
LMZ521 Expires:202101300615;;693694 FZUS53 KGRB 292140 NSHGRB Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay WI 340 PM CST Fri Jan 29 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ521-522-300615-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sturgeon Bay, WI
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location: 44.87, -87.4     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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FXUS63 KGRB 072336 AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 536 PM CST Sun Mar 7 2021

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 219 PM CST Sun Mar 7 2021

Warm (at least away from Lake Michigan) for the start of the work week, some rain mid-week, then temperatures dropping back closer to seasonal normals by next weekend.

The upper pattern across North America consisted of deep troughs off the West Coast and over eastern Canada. The ridge between the troughs was in the process of flattening due to energy ejecting out of the western trough. The flow at higher latitudes will progress a little faster than at lower latitudes. That will allow the bulk of the energy in the western trough to separate off into a southern stream and result in the typical split-flow forecast issues by the end of the period.

Considerably above normal temperatures are expected for the first few days of the period, then readings will drop back closer to seasonal normals. The primary precipitation producer will be a cyclone crossing the area mid-week. The system will have access to Gulf moisture, so precipitation for the period is likely to end up AOA normal.

SHORT TERM. Tonight and Monday Issued at 219 PM CST Sun Mar 7 2021

Mainly tranquil weather to persist over the next 24 hours, although there is a very small chance of some patchy drizzle or freezing drizzle across the north after midnight.

The 19Z MSAS surface analysis indicated a ridge of high pressure located over the eastern Great Lakes. An area of low pressure was situated northeast of Lake Winnipeg with a cold front that extended south-southwest into the central Plains. Southerly winds between these two weather features were trying to pull warmer air into WI, but a dose of mid and high clouds were keeping temperatures in check this afternoon. Nevertheless, readings were still above normal for early March.

Models show a mid-level shortwave trough will move through northeast WI this evening, followed by the cold front during the overnight hours. While moisture is still rather marginal, there is some mid-level Q-G forcing which may be enough to produce spotty drizzle or freezing drizzle, mainly over northern WI where the forcing is slightly better. Any precipitation that does make it to the surface should not have any impact on area roads. Otherwise, look for partly to mostly cloudy skies with patchy fog around, especially where a snowpack still exists. Min temperatures will not be anywhere near as cold as this morning with readings only falling into the upper 20s to around 30 degrees north, lower to middle 30s south.

After the cold front departs first thing Monday morning, an area of high pressure is forecast to build into the western Great Lakes region. As this occurs, skies will become mostly sunny and with temperatures expected to be 1 to 2 standard deviations above normal, anticipate max temperatures to make a big jump on Monday. Look for readings to range from around 50 degrees over north- central WI, to the middle to upper 50s west of the Fox Valley.

LONG TERM. Monday Night Through Sunday Issued at 219 PM CST Sun Mar 7 2021

As was the case yesterday, the main long-term forecast issues were temperatures early in the week, and the timing/location/amount of precipitation with the passage of the mid-week cyclone. Additionally, the potential for dense fog at times and for a round of thunderstorms mid-week also exist.

Similar to yesterday, edged temperatures away from the lake up a little above NBM values early in the week. The low-level flow does not look like it will have enough of a westerly component Tuesday/Wednesday to drive the warm air all the way to the lakeshore, so left cooler readings there. The warmest temperatures lakeside could actually occur Wednesday night as the cyclone tracks across the Lake Superior region and winds shift west.

Fog will probably also be an issue at times, though the specifics of when and where aren't clear. The far north, which still has a substantial snow cover would seem most susceptible to dense fog development when surface dew points well above freezing arrive in the area in the warm sector of the cyclone.

The track of the cyclone looks favorable for some thunderstorms to occur Wednesday afternoon and evening as the warm sector shifts through the forecast area. Edged thunder chances up from the previous forecast, and mentioned the possibility of some small hail and gusty winds in the HWO.

Consistency (both between models and when comparing subsequent runs of the same model) diminishes considerably during the latter part of the forecast period as the flow across NOAM becomes increasingly split. Stayed with the standard NBM forecast initialization grids during this time.

AVIATION. for 00Z TAF Issuance Issued at 536 PM CST Sun Mar 7 2021

A period of mostly clear skies is expected this evening ahead of an approaching shortwave currently making its way through northwest Wisconsin. As the mid level shortwave approaches clouds will increase later this evening, but still remain VFR. A cold front on the heels of the shortwave will bring the potential for MVFR cigs later tonight into early Monday morning alone with some patchy drizzle or freezing drizzle across northern Wisconsin. A period of LLWS is expected this evening as wind speeds increase to 40 to 50 knots above the inversion.

Clouds are expected to give way to increasing sunshine on Monday as an area of high pressure builds into the region. VFR conditions to return by mid-morning and persist through the rest of the day. Winds will become west-northwest behind the cold front, but be relatively on the light side.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NONE.

SYNOPSIS . Skowronski SHORT TERM . Kallas LONG TERM . Skowronski AVIATION . Kurimski


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 19 mi49 min S 7 G 11 32°F 35°F1023.1 hPa29°F
CBRW3 - Chambers Island, WI 23 mi39 min SE 5.1 G 11 34°F
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI 28 mi49 min S 18 G 21 36°F 1023.6 hPa
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 37 mi39 min SE 11 G 19 35°F 1024 hPa
GBWW3 39 mi49 min SSW 1 G 5.1 36°F 1022.2 hPa

Wind History for Menominee, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Door County Cherryland Airport, WI3 mi23 minS 1210.00 miFair34°F29°F82%1024.3 hPa
Menominee - Marinette Twin County Airport, MI21 mi23 minS 610.00 miFair33°F28°F82%1023.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSUE

Wind History from SUE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE5NE6NE6N5N4N5CalmCalmCalmE3SE5SE8S9S11S13SE13S14
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1 day agoN5N7N5N3N6N5NW4N3N6N7N7NW6NW8NW7N6N5NE35NE4E5E5CalmNE5NE6
2 days agoS3SE3CalmCalmE3W4W4W3NW5N5N7N10N12N8N73NW8NW4NW5NE4NE4NE6N6N7

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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