Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Sturgeon Bay, WI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 152 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Persistent northwesterly flow is expected for the forecast period as a large upper trough remains stretched over eastern CONUS.

Today...
Low clouds will persist into the morning hours before gradually scattering out by the afternoon. Clearing skies will allow temperatures to get into the lower to middle 70s, which will be right around convective temperature in the afternoon. Expect scattered pop-up showers to develop in the afternoon and evening, supported by the arrival of a weak upper shortwave. Some thunder could mix in at times with any showers, but instability and shear remain too meager to support organized storms, so no severe weather is expected today. Any rain will be relatively short-lived and most of the day will likely still be dry even at the areas that do see rain. Probability for showers will sit around 30-40% at any one location, which largely means that most of the day will be dry Any precipitation should diminish quickly overnight.

Friday and Saturday...
Additional pop up showers will develop both Friday night and Saturday afternoon as additional weak upper shortwaves cross the region. Friday will be the more widespread of the two, with rain chances sitting around 50-70% for much of the area. That said, with minimal instability and shear in the region, any rain will be light and the timing doesn't favor widespread thunder (10-15% chance). Saturday showers will largely be limited to northern Wisconsin, along the Upper Peninsula border.

Rest of the forecast...
Temperatures will not change much through the extended, with each day expected to largely stay in the lower to middle 70s each day.
The system for Sunday mentioned in previous forecasts has trended southwards, leaving the day dry. The next widespread chance for precipitation is currently expected to hold off until sometime around the middle of next week.

AVIATION
for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 829 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

SCT showers continue over portions of northeast Wisconsin late this evening as low pressure traverses the southern part of the state. Pockets of moderate rain with a rumble or two of embedded thunder are progged to continue overnight, departing the area by around 12Z. IFR conditions persist during this time, eventually lifting to VFR in the wake of the low by around 16Z. However, lower cigs/BR may linger for a couple hours longer along the Lake Michigan shoreline, specifically near MTW. Isolated showers/storms will then be possible Thursday afternoon; have thus opted to include PROB30 mention of -SHRA in the RHI TAF where light rain seems most likely. Confidence in shower or storm occurrence is < 25% elsewhere.

Post-frontal winds back to the northeast overnight, before eventually shifting to the northwest Thursday morning. Gusts to 20 knots will be possible at times Thursday afternoon and evening.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Beach Hazards Statement until 4 AM CDT early this morning for WIZ040-050.