Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Sturgeon Bay, WI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 243 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Rain Potential Tonight into Tuesday...
Scattered showers continue across the region this afternoon along a push of warmer air. These initial showers have largely lacked more convective elements due to a lack forcing, so initial rainfall amounts have generally remained light. A break in the precipitation will be possible in the late afternoon behind the initial showers before an upper shortwave brings back showers and possibly thunderstorms. Although severe weather is not expected with this feature, very heavy rainfall could be supported at times overnight as the most recent upper air sounding shows PWATs up to 1.92 inches, above the climatological max for early June. Models are even more aggressive in some areas, advecting up to 2-2.25" into the region. Effectively, any convection will be able to produce a lot of rain very quickly, which will pose a flooding concern to watch during the evening to early overnight period. The CAMs therefore show some very high localized rainfall totals in the range of several inches. Fortunately convection should be relatively localized tonight, so any flooding effect should also be relatively limited in areal coverage. The greatest potential for heavy rainfall will be over central Wisconsin, which is currently in a SLight Risk of Excessive Rainfall for this period.

Tuesday Storms...
A period of relative quiet will be possible on Tuesday after any overnight showers and storms depart the region. Expect partial clearing to take place during the late morning to afternoon as high temperatures head into the middle 80s across the area.
Attention then turns to a fairly sharp warm front that will stretch from central Minnesota southeastwards into northern Illinois. This slow moving front will be the leading edge of a very unstable airmass along which storms will develop Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. Although this also means the best potential resides to our west and south, will need to monitor for storms riding along the gradient of best instability into our region, including portions of central Wisconsin and the central to southern Fox Valley. These areas are currently in the Marginal Risk category for severe weather, which makes sense as the gradient of instability is quite sharp and storms should see some weakening as they move north and east into our area. Any stronger storms will pose primarily a wind threat.

Wednesday...
Some scattered showers and even a few storms may still be in the area along the aforementioned warm front from Tuesday as it works its way into the region. These initial storms will likely still be elevated and be sub-severe, bringing just a period of rainfall to the region. Late afternoon to early evening will be the period to watch for severe weather as storms develop again along a cold frontal passage and the passage of a strong trough. Instability ahead of the frontal passage ranges around 2000-2500+ J/kg CAPE and deep layer shear in the range of 35 to 40 knots will be supportive of organized convection. Steep lapse rates both at the surface and aloft will be supportive of hail growth, while early looks at low level helicity and shear would support damaging wind potential, supercells, and possibly tornadoes. Heavy rainfall will return for this period as well, as PWATs once again surge to around 1.75-2" for much of the region. Impacts of heavy rainfall should be somewhat limited by the anticipated fast-moving nature of any evening storms, but a widespread soaking over an inch will still be possible (30-50% chance), with locally higher amounts.
The timing of all these parameters will be somewhat dependent upon how quickly skies clear behind any morning convection, but the most likely factor will remain with the trough itself. Where convective initiation will likewise vary a little with the details of prior convection but most mid- range guidance does still suggest it will be at least a little to our west before expanding into our area during the late afternoon to evening. This means that those with outdoor plans will be able to monitor radar for developing convection upstream before it arrives. Overall, would expect initial storms to have a hail threat before organizing lines, bows, and/or cold pools bring more of a wind and embedded tornadic threat downstream from where the storms started.

Temperatures...
Given all the active weather, the heat impacts for the early to mid week have diminished from where they stood a few days ago.
Expect high temperatures in the upper 70s to middle 80s Tuesday and mid to upper 80s on Wednesday. This bring heat indices into the middle 90s. If skies clear very quickly Wednesday and the warm front gets further northwards we may yet see a need for heat related headlines, but this is not currently in the forecast.
Temperatures then see a slow falling trend behind the Wednesday active weather, which will be an end of any heat mentions in the current forecast.

Extended...
Thursday may see another round of active weather in the region during the afternoon and evening, but this will largely depend on where air masses end up behind the active weather on Wednesday. A few mid to long range models eject another shortwave into the region with enough strength to bring the warmth and moisture back into central to east-central Wisconsin. If this occurs, we may yet see another round of active weather, but many of the details will depend heavily on what happens Wednesday.

AVIATION
for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1015 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Scattered showers will continue overnight into early Tuesday morning. Could not rule out an isolated thunderstorm, but coverage and probabilities to low to include in the 06z TAFS. CIGS also slower drop into the MVFR/IFR category during the evening, but should drop into these two categories overnight. Patchy fog may restrict visibilities at times between 06z-13z. Otherwise, sped up the improving CIGS on Tuesday, reaching the VFR category Tuesday afternoon. The latest guidance is suggesting fog is likely Tuesday night and may be dense at times. On Wednesday, strong or severe storms are possible, especially during the afternoon.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.