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PZZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Falcon To Cape Foulweather Or Out 10 Nm- 218 Pm Pst Sat Dec 2 2023
.hazardous seas warning in effect until 10 pm pst this evening...
.gale warning in effect from 10 pm pst this evening through Sunday morning...
Tonight..SE wind 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt, becoming sw 25 to 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt after midnight. Combined seas 15 ft with a dominant period of 14 seconds. Rain.
Sun..SW wind 25 to 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, easing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt in the afternoon. Combined seas 16 ft with a dominant period of 14 seconds in the morning. Rain.
Sun night..S wind 25 to 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, rising to 30 to 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt after midnight. Combined seas 13 ft with a dominant period of 14 seconds, building to 17 ft with a dominant period of 14 seconds after midnight. Rain.
Mon..S wind 30 to 40 kt. Gusts to 50 kt, becoming 45 kt in the afternoon. Combined seas 20 ft with a dominant period of 18 seconds. Rain.
Mon night..S wind 30 to 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, becoming 30 to 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt after midnight. Combined seas 18 ft with a dominant period of 15 seconds. Rain.
Tue..S wind 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 45 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 30 kt in the afternoon. Combined seas 17 ft with a dominant period of 14 seconds in the morning. Rain.
Tue night..SW wind 10 kt. Gusts to 20 kt, becoming 15 kt overnight. Wind waves sw 2 ft at 4 seconds. SWell W 18 ft at 17 seconds. Rain.
Wed..SW wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Wind waves sw 2 ft at 4 seconds. SWell W 16 ft at 16 seconds, subsiding to W 13 ft at 15 seconds.
Thu..SW wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Wind waves sw 3 ft at 4 seconds. SWell W 10 ft at 13 seconds.

PZZ200 218 Pm Pst Sat Dec 2 2023
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. NExt front will bring another round of strong southerlies tonight into Sunday. Seas remain elevated through early next week as westerly swells from storms in the north pacific move to the waters. Overall, a very active weather pattern is expected to continue through the start of the upcoming week.

FXUS66 KPQR 022304 AAA AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 301 PM PST Sat Dec 2 2023

SYNOPSIS
Another atmospheric river will bring widespread heavy rain to the region Saturday night through much of Sunday, resulting in river flooding and some urban flooding. Yet another atmospheric river is expected to impact portions of the area Monday night through at least Tuesday night, bringing a continued threat of river flooding and urban flooding. Snow levels should rise above 7000 ft Saturday night and remain high through Wednesday.

SHORT TERM
Saturday afternoon through Sunday night...Webcam, radar, and surface weather observations from 2:30 PM PST Saturday show persistent heavy snow has generally ended over the south Washington Cascades, north Oregon Cascades, and Lane County Cascades.
Occasional post-frontal snow showers will still occur through Saturday evening above 4000 ft, however additional accumulations should stay under an inch or so at pass level. Snow levels are still expected to rise above 7000 feet Saturday night. Therefore, the Winter Storm Warning that was in effect for the Cascades has been cancelled.

For locations west of the Cascades, conditions were cloudy with a light breeze, temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s, and a few post-frontal showers. Small hail and brief heavy rain has been reported with the strongest showers, but no lightning. However, weather conditions will become more active again Saturday evening/night into Sunday as the next atmospheric river (AR) takes aim mainly at northwest Oregon. The GEFS/EPS IVT plume forecast shows excellent agreement regarding the strength of this AR as both suggest IVT values will peak just under 750 kg/ms, which is in the moderate category. However, the latest suite of model guidance has shown a southern shift with this axis of heaviest rainfall, with the heaviest rainfall now expected to occur south of a line extending from Tillamook to Wilsonville. Locations north of that line, including southwest WA and the Portland/Vancouver metro, will still see heavy rain Sunday morning along with a threat of urban/river flooding, however it likely will not last as long as locations further to the south.

Precipitation should become light and showery across all of northwest OR and southwest WA by Sunday evening as the atmospheric river weakens and shifts southward into southwest Oregon. However, river levels will remain elevated through the night. Forecast rain amounts and expected impacts are discussed below in the hydrology discussion.
-TK


LONG TERM
Monday through Friday...The rain will continue to come as yet another AR arrives Monday evening. However, prior to that arrival, enjoy a drier early Monday as a very weak transient ridge sets up over the area. It will be very short lived, but, a much needed break between the two ARs. This system is shaping up to be the strongest of the recent storms as it is tapping into warmer air from the Pacific. At 850 mb, incoming warm air is around 8-9 deg C which will hold considerably more moisture than the cooler previous systems. NAM12 model runs show precipitable water content around 2 inches over the northeastern Pacific on Monday which, when it moves inland over cooler air and with orographic effects, will easily precipitate out. Between these warm temperatures and moderate the heavy rain, this AR has the potential to be strong.

In recent model runs though, this AR is shifting a bit further to the north, and really encompassing the Coast Range, Cascades and areas north of Marion County. However, this is just where the heaviest rain will likely be. Because of this spread accumulations will vary quite a bit spatially. In the areas with the heaviest rain (northern Coast Range and in the Gifford Pinchot Natl Forest), values range from 2.5-6.5 inches which is the 10th-90th percentiles respectively. Lower elevations will see less rain due to a lack of orographic lift, but will still be wet. North of Salem, the 10th percentile is around 0.5-0.75 inches and the 90th percentile around 2.5-3.5 inches. South of Salem the 90th percentile is around 1.5 inches. With these rainfall totals and the warmer air there will be significant snow melt. Therefore, another round of river rises is likely. Please see the hydrology discussion for more information.

In the post AR environment, we will continue to be showery with some cloud breaks. On Thursday a cold front will begin to drop down from the Gulf of Alaska. While initially this pattern appeared to be more of an AR type scenario, as the days have passed, it is not necessarily taking the same shape and rather that of an elongated robust trough. The cold air coming in could bring another round of snow for the Cascades and moderate/heavy rain for the region.
-Muessle

HYDROLOGY
A series of atmospheric rivers will bring periods of widespread heavy rain through early next week. Rain will become heavy again Saturday night into Sunday morning while snow levels rapidly rise above 7000 ft. Additional rain amounts expected Saturday afternoon through Sunday night: 0.75 to 2.0 inches along the south Washington and north Oregon coast, 2.0 to 4.5 inches along the central Oregon coast, 1.0 to 2.0 inches over the Willapa Hills, 1.5 to 4.0 inches over the north Oregon Coast Range, 3.5 to 7.0 inches over the central Oregon Coast Range, 1.0 to 2.5 inches across the interior lowlands of southwest Washington and northwest Oregon (highest in the Eugene-Springfield area), 4.0 to 8.0 inches across the Cascades and western Columbia River Gorge, and 1.0 to 2.5 inches over the central Columbia River Gorge and Upper Hood River Valley.
More rain is expected Monday through Wednesday with another atmospheric river, but uncertainty is high regarding exacting rain amounts with this system. That being said, this atmospheric river has the potential to be strong and warrants close monitoring. As of right now, the NBM is showing a 20-40% chance of 24-hour rain amounts in excess of two inches from Monday evening through Tuesday evening across the interior lowlands. The coast has a 50-70% chance, while the coastal mountains and Cascades have a 80-95% chance.

Given the forecast rainfall amounts expected this weekend into early next week, river levels will continue to rise. Most coastal rivers show a 40-60% chance of reaching minor flood stage and a 10-30% chance of reaching major flood stage in the next 10 days. This includes the Wilson River and Trask River near Tillamook, the Naselle River near Naselle, the Nehalem River near Foss, the Nestucca River near Beaver, the Grays River near Rosburg, and the Siletz River at Siletz.

Additionally, many other rivers across northwest OR and southwest WA still show anywhere from a 30-50% chance of reaching at least minor flood stage in the next 10 days, except for the mainstem Columbia and Willamette Rivers where the chance of reaching minor flood stage remains lower, around 5-10%. To view current and forecast river stages for any river gage location across southwest WA and northwest OR, visit https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=pqr

Lastly, urban flooding is also possible this weekend, especially in low-lying areas with poor drainage. If you have gutters and/or storm drains that still need to be cleared out, now is the time.
Significant ponding of water and localized roadway flooding is expected on roads. Any motorists with travel plans this weekend should also allow extra time for their commute as hydroplaning will be a risk. Never drive through flooded roads. -TK/HEC

AVIATION
Pacific cold front sliding south through the area. As of 9 am the front is between KONP-KCVO and east into the Cascades. The front should stall between KEUG and KRBG today then lift back northward late today and tonight as as warm front. For much of today will generally be VFR with local MVFR in showers, then as the warm front moves across the area, expect increasing MVFR cigs and visibilities to develop between 00-04Z Sun, becoming widespread by 06-08Z Sun. IFR conditions cannot be ruled out. Will see southerly winds increase tonight as well, gusting 20-30 kt in the Willamette Valley after about 12Z Sunday. Coastal areas should see gusts in the 30 to 40 kt range, with strongest wind south of KTMK.

** The new Aviation Weather Center website is live. The new website can be found at aviationweather.gov **

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR with showers prevailing with brief MVFR cigs possible (HRRR indicating less then 10% chance for cigs near 3000 ft through 00Z Sun.) Chances for MVFR conditions increase after 00Z Sun (20-30% chance), becoming likely by around 08Z Sun (60-80%) chance. IFR conditions are also possible after about 10Z Sun as the warm front nears.
/mh

MARINE
Current observations at buoy 46050 as of 330am PST Saturday show southwesterly winds at 20-25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt as a frontal system moves through the waters. Seas are also building to 14-17 ft. Note that buoy 029 is currently out of service.
Expect winds to weaken to sub-Gales after mid-morning Saturday.
Following these Gales, winds will generally be westerly at 10-15 kt.
However, seas will remain elevated today so a Hazardous Seas Warning will be in effect from late morning Saturday through the evening.

Saturday night into Sunday morning, the next frontal system will approach the waters from the southwest. This will bring another round of southwesterly winds gusting up to 40 kt across the waters from Cape Falcon, OR southward. Therefore, another Gale Warning has been issued for these areas beginning Sunday night. Seas will remain between 10-14 ft.

A very active weather pattern persists Sunday through early next week, with a greater than 80% chance for additional rounds of Gale force gusts over the waters. Sub-Gale force winds are possible after Tuesday, however seas will remain elevated and build up to 18-20 ft at 16-17 seconds through mid-next week. This will also maintain the threat of sneaker waves along our coast. -Alviz

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for Cascade Foothills in Lane County-Central Coast Range of Western Oregon-Central Oregon Coast-Central Willamette Valley-Coast Range of Northwest Oregon-Greater Portland Metro Area-Lower Columbia- North Oregon Coast-Northern Oregon Cascade Foothills-South Willamette Valley.

WA...Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for Greater Vancouver Area-I-5 Corridor in Cowlitz County-South Washington Cascade Foothills-South Washington Coast-Willapa Hills.

PZ...Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for Coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cape Falcon OR out 10 NM.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 10 PM PST this evening for Coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 60 NM.

Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM PST Sunday for Coastal waters from Cape Foulweather OR to Florence OR out 10 NM.Coastal waters from Cape Foulweather OR to Florence OR from 10 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST Sunday for Columbia River Bar.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM PST Sunday for Coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cape Falcon OR out 60 NM.

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Nestucca Bay entrance
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Sat -- 04:44 AM PST     6.34 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:35 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:50 AM PST     3.78 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:13 PM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 02:57 PM PST     6.96 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:34 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:36 PM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:36 PM PST     0.36 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Nestucca Bay entrance, Oregon, Tide feet

Kernville
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Sat -- 05:13 AM PST     4.95 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:34 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:31 AM PST     2.75 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:13 PM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:26 PM PST     5.44 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:35 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:38 PM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:17 PM PST     0.26 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Kernville, Siletz River, Oregon, Tide feet

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