Sunrise 5:50 AM   Sunset 8:27 PM Moonrise 4:24 AM   Moonset 7:30 PM

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PZZ255 Coastal Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or Out 10 Nm- 847 Am Pdt Tue Sep 13 2022
.dense fog advisory in effect until 10 pm pdt this evening - .
Rest of today - SW wind to 5 kt. Wind waves sw 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 2 ft at 9 seconds. Widespread dense fog and a chance of showers in the morning, then areas of dense fog in the afternoon. Tonight - N wind to 5 kt. Wind waves N 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 3 ft at 9 seconds. Areas of dense fog in the evening. Patchy dense fog after midnight. Wed - N wind 5 kt. Wind waves N 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 3 ft at 9 seconds. Patchy dense fog in the morning. Wed night - NW wind 5 kt. Wind waves W 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 3 ft at 9 seconds. Thu - SE wind 5 kt, veering to W in the afternoon. Wind waves se 1 ft at 4 seconds, shifting to the W at 4 seconds in the afternoon. NW swell 3 ft at 10 seconds. Thu night - N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves N 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 3 ft at 10 seconds. Fri - N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. NW swell 3 ft. Sat - NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. NW swell 4 ft.

PZZ200 1055 Am Pdt Tue May 7 2024
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast - Active weather persists with breezy westerlies through this morning. High pressure then builds across the waters bringing more summer-like weather and breezy northerly winds through the end of the week.

FXUS66 KPQR 071846 AAB AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 1145 AM PDT Tue May 7 2024

Updated aviation discussion

SYNOPSIS
One more day of cool and unsettled weather today, then high pressure will bring a substantial drying and warming trend that will last through the end of the week. Before the warming trend, lingering cool air and clear skies will likely lead to frost in some of the outlying valleys, but urban centers should remain a few degrees above freezing. Record warm temperatures are possible Friday and/or Saturday, but rivers and lakes will remain dangerously cold.

SHORT TERM
Now through Thursday...Scattered showers persist in cool onshore flow across SW Washington and NW Oregon this morning.
Showers have been most numerous in the higher terrain, where orographic westerly flow leads to upslope enhancement. Snow levels have lowered to around 3500 feet, but overnight snow accumulations have only amounted to an inch or two. Scattered showers will continue to move onshore through this afternoon, but a strong capping inversion near 9-10 kft should prevent them from growing tall enough to produce lightning or much hail. Any showers will also have to work against increasing subsidence as high pressure builds in from the Pacific. Showers will end with the loss of solar heating, and that will likely be the end of precipitation across our forecast area for several days. The lingering cool air mass should keep temps mostly in the mid to upper 50s for lowland highs today.

With high pressure building in quickly, clear/calm conditions will lead to excellent radiational cooling within a chilly air mass lingering over the Pac NW. Nights are getting short, but it appears temps will have the opportunity to cool off enough for frost in the outlying valleys and possibly the suburbs. Will issue a Frost Advisory for tonight into Wednesday morning as temps are expected to dip into the lower to mid 30s in the outlying inland areas. 00z HRRR guidance shows anywhere from a 40-80% chance of temps 35 deg F or cooler for most of the Willamette Valley excluding the PDX metro, whereas the suburbs generally have a 20-40% chance of temps 35 deg F or cooler. The inner Portland metro only has a 10-25% chance, so we will exclude inner portions of the PDX metro from the Frost Advisory as lows are expected to remain closer to 40 degrees there.

The chilly start will hobble the rise of temperatures early Wednesday, but strong May sunshine will eventually mix out any valley inversions and temps should climb well into the 60s (and possibly to 70 degrees) Wednesday afternoon. Low-level offshore flow will ramp up Wednesday night into Thursday, and with 850 mb temps +10 to +12 deg C by Thursday afternoon, it appears very likely inland areas and possibly even the coastal valleys will reach 80 degrees Thursday.
Latest NBM probabilistic data show greater than a 60% chance of reaching 80 degrees Thursday for the entire Willamette Valley, with the chances exceeding 90% for the lowlands of the Portland metro area.

With temperatures climbing into the 70s and 80s by Thursday, it is important to remember that rivers and lakes remain dangerously cold with water temperatures mainly in the 40s. Such temperatures can easily cause cold water shock for those without proper protective equipment. The bright sun and warm temperatures can make the cold water look refreshing, but the consequences of jumping in without the proper equipment could be deadly. Weagle

LONG TERM
Friday through Monday...High confidence in dry and unseasonably warm weather as the latest WPC cluster analysis suggests strongly positive 500 mb height anomalies through the weekend. All clusters suggest the ridge will eventually be worn down by a strengthening Pacific jet stream moving from the north-central Pacific into the NE Pacific, but most guidance holds on to the ridge long enough to keep Monday dry except perhaps for some coastal drizzle.

Deterministic models are depicting a fairly typical evolution for our anticipated warm spell: Offshore flow Thursday/Friday leading to unseasonably warm temperatures all the way to the coast, thermal low pressure shifting inland Saturday bringing cooler onshore flow to the coast and coastal valleys while inland valleys remain near 90 degrees, then more widespread cooling Sunday as thermal low pressure focuses on the Columbia Basin and pulls onshore flow all the way to the Cascades. The marine layer will likely remain too shallow for much in the way of morning cloudiness inland through Sunday, but the upper ridge may weaken enough for some low clouds to push into the inland valleys for a few hours Monday morning.

As for the magnitude of the warmth, the inner Portland metro appears the most likely to reach 90 degrees Fri/Sat based on NBM probabilistic guidance, with 80s a near certainty for all other inland valleys. NBM prob guidance shows a 50-95% chance of reaching 90 deg F across the inner PDX metro and eastern Washington County, with the highest values (greatest likelihood) focusing on Tualatin, Tigard, Beaverton, and Aloha. In fact, NBM is beginning to show probs of 95 deg F in the 10-30% range for that area. The wet ground and lack of strong offshore flow should prevent these higher values, but it would come at the cost of higher humidity due to evaporation coming from the moist ground and vegetation. For now our forecast is around 90 degrees for the Portland metro Friday and Saturday, with mid to upper 80s for the remainder of the interior lowlands.

The unseasonably warm weekend will no doubt cause people to flock to the rivers, lakes, and ocean beaches of SW Washington and NW Oregon.
It is important to remember that rivers and lakes remain dangerously cold with water temperatures mainly in the 40s. Such temperatures can easily cause cold water shock for those without proper protective equipment. The bright sun and warm temperatures can make the cold water look refreshing, but the consequences of jumping in without the proper equipment could be deadly. Weagle

AVIATION
Northwest flow aloft continues today as high pressure ridge begins to build across the region. This will cause scattered light rain showers to gradually dissipate by this evening. Expect predominately VFR conditions today, though a small chance (20-30%) of CIGS dropping to MVFR persists through 21Z Tuesday.
Northwest winds at the surface begin to shift northerly later today through tonight. Guidance then suggests stratus may rebuild by early Wed morning near the Cascade foothills with around a 30-50% chance of MVFR cigs creeping into the terminals through the Willamette Valley between 12-18Z Wed.

PDX AND APPROACHES...Predominately VFR expected with light scattered showers eventually dissipating by this evening. There remains a 10-20% chance of CIGS dropping to MVFR briefly through 21Z. Chance for MVFR stratus creeping into the terminal increase after 12Z Wednesday to around 30-50%, but whatever does form should burn off quickly with increasing sun through Wed morning.
Northwest winds increase to around 7-9 kt this afternoon. /DH

MARINE
Breezy northwest winds and light scattered showers continue through this afternoon with gusts to 20 kt. Seas around 9 to 10 ft at 12 seconds this morning are expected to persist through early this evening, barely meeting Small Craft Advisory criteria. Afterwards, high pressure begins to build across the waters, bringing more tranquil weather. Winds turn northerly as high pressure persists offshore and the thermal trough strengthens along the CA/OR coast. This summer like pattern will bring breezy north winds with gusts to 30 kt on Wednesday. /DH

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM PDT Wednesday for ORZ104-105-109-114>118-121-123>125.

WA...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM PDT Wednesday for WAZ205-208.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ210.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for PZZ251>253- 271>273.

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Nestucca Bay entrance
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Tue -- 05:27 AM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:55 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:03 AM PDT     -1.30 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:12 PM PDT     6.43 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:49 PM PDT     1.54 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:24 PM PDT     New Moon
Tue -- 08:29 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:33 PM PDT     Moonset
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Nestucca Bay entrance, Oregon, Tide feet

Kernville
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Tue -- 12:26 AM PDT     6.55 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:28 AM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:56 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:44 AM PDT     -0.94 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:41 PM PDT     5.03 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:30 PM PDT     1.12 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:24 PM PDT     New Moon
Tue -- 08:29 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:33 PM PDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Kernville, Siletz River, Oregon, Tide feet

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