Monday, August19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Salem, OR

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:17AMSunset 8:14PM Monday August 19, 2019 1:46 PM PDT (20:46 UTC) Moonrise 9:26PMMoonset 9:14AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ255 Coastal Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or Out 10 Nm- Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or From 10 To 60 Nm- 240 Am Pdt Mon Aug 19 2019
Today..NW wind to 5 kt. Wind waves N 1 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 4 ft at 14 seconds.
Tonight..N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves N 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 5 ft at 9 seconds.
Tue..SW wind to 5 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves S 2 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 4 ft at 9 seconds.
Tue night..S wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, rising to 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt after midnight. Wind waves S 3 ft at 5 seconds. W swell 4 ft at 7 seconds.
Wed..S wind 20 to 25 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves sw 3 ft at 6 seconds. W swell 8 ft at 13 seconds. Chance of rain.
Wed night..NW wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves nw 2 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 7 ft at 13 seconds.
Thu..N wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves 4 ft. NW swell 6 ft.
Fri..N wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. NW swell 4 ft.
PZZ200 240 Am Pdt Mon Aug 19 2019
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. Weak ridge of high pressure will persist over the coastal waters through early Tuesday, then give way to an approaching frontal system later Tue night into Wed. This front will likely move onshore by late Wed afternoon, with some W to nw swell lingering into Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Salem, OR
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location: 44.91, -123.05     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 191603
afdpqr
area forecast discussion
national service portland or
902 am pdt Mon aug 19 2019

Synopsis A warming trend through Tuesday will give way to a humid
day with a chance of rain on Wednesday. The remainder of the week
will be seasonable and dry, except for a small chance of
precipitation on the southwest washington and far northwest oregon
coast toward the weekend.

Short term Today through Thursday... A few spots along and near the
coast north of a tillamook-columbia gorge line have recorded
measurable rain drizzle this morning, with the big winner being
huckleberry raws at 0.07 inch as of their last report at 811 am. Most
of the measurable rain has been in the hills, though astoria has had
0.04 inch as well. Increased pops in these areas to mention a chance
of rain or drizzle this morning, and updated sky cover grids to
reflect what is shown on visible satellite this morning. Otherwise,
the existing forecast and discussion below look good and remain
valid. weagle
previous discussion follows...

fog product satellite imagery early this morning reveals marine
clouds are more patchy than the past couple of mornings. This should
result in skies clearing faster today and high temperatures warming
into the low to mid 80s in the willamette valley. Klgx doppler radar
does indicate a few light showers are moving southeastward towards
the north oregon and south washington coast so expect patches of
drizzle through the morning hours in these areas. Building 500mb
heights over the upcoming 36 hours should result in fewer marine
clouds tonight into Tuesday morning with high temperatures warming
several degrees on Tuesday. The biggest limiting factor for high
temperatures on Tuesday will be increasing mid and high level clouds
across the region in advance of the next storm system.

The weather will change more dramatically as we move into Tuesday
night and Wednesday as subtropical moisture phases with a shortwave
trough dropping southward across the eastern gulf of alaska. A series
of surface low pressures will develop and move north-northeastward
across the northeast pacific along a boundary. Models are coming
into agreement these will help to drive a moist surface front into
southwest washington and northwest oregon on Wednesday. There still
remains quite a bit of uncertainty on just much rain will fall across
the region due to uncertainties in where weak surface low pressures
do or do not develop along the front, though. Nonetheless, have
continued the trend of raising pops in accordance with models coming
into better agreement on the bigger picture.

Naefs ivt values also continue to climb (now in excess of 500 kg ms)
with each model run. These are values expected to occur once every
5-10 years in a three week window centered on the date and are at
levels where orographics will certainly enhance rainfall in the coast
range and willapa hills. Given some ensemble members of the GFS and
ec suggest pw values could exceed or certainly come close to near
record values for the region, do expect a rather humid and sticky
feeling period on Wednesday in advance of the rain as well.

Models are in good agreement the shortwave trough responsible for
the unsettled weather on Wednesday will move east of the region
Wednesday night into Thursday. This should result in the area drying
out with decreasing cloud cover and temperatures topping several
degrees below average for the date. Neuman

Long term Thursday night through Monday... While models are in
reasonable agreement quasi-zonal flow will keep precipitation chances
low and temperatures somewhat seasonable throughout the extended
portion of the forecast, there are some differences between the gefs
and eps ensemble means. The ec and its ensembles tend to support a
gradual building of 500mb heights across the region as a broad, but
shallow shortwave ridge builds over california this weekend. In
contrast, the GFS and its ensembles keep lower 500mb heights in place
across the region with a broad, but shallow shortwave trough over the
northeast pacific and southwest canada. These subtle differences do
lead to some uncertainty in high temperatures, at least for more
interior locations. The cooler GFS scenario would likely keep high
temperatures in the upper 70s and low 80s while the ec scenario would
likely result in high temperatures climbing into at least the mid to
upper 80s for the willamette valley and columbia river gorge over the
weekend. In addition, the GFS scenario could lead to a weak front
bringing some light rain to our far northern coastal zones Saturday.

For now have gone with a blend of the model solutions given the
uncertainty in all aspects of the forecast. Neuman

Aviation Light west northwest flow expected to continue
through the day with a slow transition to a more northerly wind
pattern into the evening.

Cloud cover is going to be the biggest challenge for today.

Satellite is showing a fairly contained cloud deck within the
willamette valley and coastal locations slowly breaking out. Overall
the area will trend towardsVFR cigs. Currently, locations south
of kuao have a MVFR deck that should start to improve over the
next few hours withVFR conditions expected to slowly return
between 19z and 21z Monday. Areas north of kuao while currently
vfr should continue to improve in the same manner with the deck
starting to break up by 19z to 21z Monday. Expect the marine
stratus to reform tonight along the coast and within the
willamette valley around 00z Tuesday.

Kpdx and approaches...VFR conditions expected with a continuing
trend towards the deck breaking out from now through 20z Monday.

Around 00z Tuesday look for marine stratus to return with the
possibility of MVFR cigs. 42

Marine Weak high pressure offshore for relatively quiet
conditions over the waters. Seas remain in the 3 to 5 ft range,
mainly from NW swell. North to northwest winds are expected to
stay at 15 kt or less through Monday, so similar winds and seas
as today.

Significant changes begin Tuesday, with winds becoming s-se
ahead of an approaching frontal system. Some forecast models
suggest this front could be rather strong for august, potentially
bringing small craft advisory-level southerly winds up to 25 kt
tue night into wed. The wind wave and swell associated with this
system may push seas up toward 10 feet Wed thu, with the best
chance of 10 foot-plus seas being in our northern waters due to
larger swells and potentially stronger wind. Mh weagle

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Wa... None.

Pz... None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBEO3 - 9435380 - South Beach, OR 56 mi53 min NW 12 G 16 63°F 55°F1015.9 hPa
NWPO3 - Newport, OR 58 mi47 min N 11 G 11 56°F
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 64 mi53 min 59°F1016.7 hPa

Wind History for South Beach, Yaquina River, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Salem - McNary Field, OR2 mi1.8 hrsVar 510.00 miMostly Cloudy70°F53°F55%1015.9 hPa
McMinnville, McMinnville Municipal Airport, OR20 mi54 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds72°F54°F53%1015.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSLE

Wind History from SLE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN6NE665NE6NE6NE7NW6W5W4W4W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3NE3N5NE75Calm
1 day agoCalm6N10N11
G15
NE7NE8NE7N5N6N6NW4N6N5CalmN6N7NE4N6N6N7N5N9NW5W4
2 days agoNE4N8NE7N7N5NW9NW12NW8NW7NW9N6NW6NW4W5NW5SE3SE3CalmCalmNW3NW4NW5N4NE5

Tide / Current Tables for Nestucca Bay entrance, Oregon
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Nestucca Bay entrance
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Mon -- 03:10 AM PDT     6.78 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:21 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:53 AM PDT     0.75 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:17 AM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:03 PM PDT     6.75 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:15 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:19 PM PDT     1.90 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:28 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.85.26.36.86.65.84.63.11.910.81.22.33.85.36.36.86.55.64.53.32.41.92.1

Tide / Current Tables for Kernville, Siletz River, Oregon
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Kernville
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Mon -- 03:39 AM PDT     5.30 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:22 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:17 AM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:34 AM PDT     0.54 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:32 PM PDT     5.28 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:15 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:29 PM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:00 PM PDT     1.38 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.33.44.45.25.34.94.13.121.10.60.61.22.33.54.65.25.24.843.12.21.61.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.