Marine Weather and Tides
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
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|Sunrise 7:34AM||Sunset 4:32PM||Saturday December 7, 2019 2:13 PM CST (20:13 UTC)||Moonrise 2:26PM||Moonset 2:33AM||Illumination 83%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Landfall, MNHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KMPX 071638 AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1038 AM CST Sat Dec 7 2019
SHORT TERM. (This afternoon through Sunday afternoon) Issued at 954 AM CST Sat Dec 7 2019
Surface analysis shows extensive high pressure from the northeastern CONUS through the Deep South. A warm front is nudging its way eastward across the Dakotas into far western MN with an associated cold front over south-central Canada into Montana.
Plenty of cloud cover is evident over much of the Dakotas through MN/WI on satellite imagery in advance of the frontal boundaries and the extensive cloud cover is expected to remain in place through Sunday afternoon. While warm air advection will commence today after the cold day experienced yesterday, it will be tempered by the cloud cover and also create a small diurnal range from today to tonight to Sunday. After lows this morning in the teens to lower 20s area-wide, highs today climbed into the 30s, particularly mid-to-high range. Lows tonight will only drop to the mid 20s to lower 30s, followed by highs on Sunday from the upper 20s to mid 30s.
As the surface front approaches and cloud layers lower, the low- to-mid levels will still have some degree of dry air available which will help mitigate the development of precipitation during the daylight hours on Sunday. Models have continued to show the recent slow northward shift in the main precipitation initiation band so have reflected this by keeping the Sunday daytime hours dry. That said, a few patches of light freezing drizzle and/or flurries cannot be ruled out for portions of central Minnesota (mainly from Douglas county eastward thru Kanabec county). May need to see how this is handled right around that 00z timeframe to determine if a mention may be warranted for late Sunday afternoon.
LONG TERM. (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 325 AM CST Sat Dec 7 2019
700-600mb frontogenesis enters west central MN between 21Z Sunday and 00Z Monday, and spreads eastward overnight into Monday morning. The primary change in models (with the exception of the NAM) was a slight northward shift in the axis of heavier snowfall amounts, which now hugs the I-94 corridor and a few rows of counties to its north. Still looks like a solid 3-5 inch event for central MN/WI, with amounts tapering down to around 1 inch along the I-90 corridor.
Deep upper troughing will be in place across eastern North America for the majority of the latter forecast period, with cold and dry northwest flow across the upper Midwest. The western ridge looks to flatten later in the week, and the pattern will de- amplify downstream, with the flow becoming more zonal by week's end. There are no significant forecast concerns from Tuesday through Saturday, with a few chances for light precipitation from Thursday into Saturday. The guidance envelope does include a few solutions that lift a surface low up into the Great Lakes region from Friday into Saturday, but at this point the overwhelming consensus with that feature (for the solutions that support it) is to keep it well to our east. Our main precipitation chances from Thursday though Saturday will be tied to weak quick moving shortwave troughs embedded in the developing westerly flow, and with significant differences in timing and location (as to be expected), there is an extended period of fairly low PoPs in the forecast to account for the potential.
High pressure and an Arctic airmass will build into the region Tuesday into Wednesday, and remain entrenched through early Thursday. Details such as cloud cover and winds will dictate exactly how cold we get, making it tough to stray too far from consensus guidance at this point. However, with the expectation of some new snowfall Sunday into Monday, it seems we should be on the colder side of the guidance given the anticipated airmass. With that in mind, trended temperatures Tuesday through Wednesday night closer to the 25th percentile of available guidance. Return flow and moderation of temperatures will setup later on Thursday, and we'll see some chances for precipitation from then into the weekend as a few shortwave troughs and surface frontal boundaries traverse the region. At this point, any precipitation during that period looks to be in the form of snow with temperatures (surface and aloft) expected to remain below freezing.
AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) Issued at 954 AM CST Sat Dec 7 2019
VFR conditions at all TAF sites to start but with gradually lowering ceilings from the pre-dawn hours through the day Sunday, down to IFR levels by Sunday afternoon. No precipitation expected through 18z Sunday but there is a small, non-zero chance of either FZDZ or SHSN in portions of western MN prior to 00z Monday. Thus, later TAFs will evaluate the need to include precip at TAFs such as KAXN-KSTC prior to 00z. The other main concern will be winds in the lower levels late this afternoon through the evening hours. A strong low level jet with the warm front will push SW winds to around 45-50kt at 2kft with surface winds still southerly. Even with surface winds reaching 15G25kt, the vector difference leads to keeping LLWS mention in the TAFs.
KMSP . Ceilings will come close to dropping to IFR levels around midday Sunday and lasting through the rest of the day. This seems a bit bullish at this point so have kept ceilings within MVFR range, but still a good shot at ceilings below 1700ft. Have also kept mention of LLWS going at KMSP since the swath of strong low winds will be rather broad over much of southern MN through southern WI.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Mon . IFR/SN likely, mainly in the morning. Several inches possible. Wind NNE bcmg NNW 10-15G25 kts. Tue . VFR but bitterly cold with wind chills in negative teens. Wind NW 5-15 kts. Wed . VFR but bitterly cold with wind chills in negative teens. Wind W 5 kts.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. MN . None.
SHORT TERM . JPC LONG TERM . AVIATION . JPC
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Airport ReportsEDIT (on/off)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
|Downtown Holman Field, MN||3 mi||21 min||SSE 12||10.00 mi||Fair||32°F||24°F||73%||1016.8 hPa|
|South St. Paul Municipal-Richard E. Flemi, MN||9 mi||19 min||SSE 10 G 14||10.00 mi||Fair||33°F||24°F||72%||1015.6 hPa|
|Lake Elmo Airport, MN||9 mi||19 min||S 10 G 19||10.00 mi||Fair||32°F||26°F||80%||1015.9 hPa|
|Minneapolis, Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, MN||12 mi||21 min||SSE 10||10.00 mi||Overcast||33°F||24°F||70%||1016.5 hPa|
|Minneapolis / Blaine, MN||20 mi||29 min||SSE 12 G 18||10.00 mi||Mostly Cloudy||34°F||24°F||70%||1014.9 hPa|
|Minneapolis, Crystal Airport, MN||23 mi||21 min||SSE 9||10.00 mi||Fair||33°F||24°F||70%||1015.7 hPa|
|Minneapolis, Airlake Airport, MN||23 mi||19 min||S 8||10.00 mi||Fair||36°F||28°F||75%||1015.2 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KSTP
Wind History from STP (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||S||Calm||NW||NW||NW||NW||N|
|2 days ago||W||W||W||W||W||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||NW||Calm||Calm||Calm||S||SE||SE||SE||S||S||S||S||S||E||Calm|
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Wind Forecast for Twin Cities, MN (15,3,4,5)(on/off)  Help
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