Marine Weather and Tides
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.
|Sunrise 6:12AM||Sunset 8:07PM||Thursday April 22, 2021 10:13 AM CDT (15:13 UTC)||Moonrise 1:37PM||Moonset 3:27AM||Illumination 81%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Landfall, MNHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KMPX 221030 AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 530 AM CDT Thu Apr 22 2021
SHORT TERM. (Today through Friday) Issued at 318 AM CDT Thu Apr 22 2021
A few clouds this morning will dissipate with return flow developing from the west/southwest as high pressure shifts off to the southeast. These winds will become gusty later this morning and continue through the afternoon/early evening. Before the weak, but concentrated, shortwave that was evident this early morning across northern Wyoming moves closer to our region, very dry humidity levels will remain in the boundary layer. Thus, as winds increase and RHs drop into the 20s, there will be elevated fire weather concerns across the southern half of Minnesota, especially over the southwest. The main factor limiting a Red Flag Warning are the wind speeds which will be 20 mph or less. Even the gusts will be limited to under 25 mph.
The aforementioned shortwave that was across Wyoming this morning will move east across South Dakota and into southwest Minnesota late tonight. CAMS continue to highlight a concentrated band of light showers developing along this shortwave late this afternoon/early evening in far southwest/west central Minnesota. PWATs are near seasonable norms as this shortwave moves through, but nothing too significant for deep convection. Precipitation amounts will likely be a few hundredths of an inch as this band moves across southern Minnesota late tonight, and into Friday morning. Farther to the east, the weakening of this shortwave and lack of strong warm air advection, should decrease the overall QPF amounts and associated PoPs. However, there will remain a weak circulation across southern Minnesota Friday afternoon which will produce some localized showers. But the areal extent will remain low so 20-30 percent looks reasonable once the main shortwave moves through the state, and into western Wisconsin by Friday mid-morning.
Temperatures will be near seasonable norms this afternoon with readings in the 60s. Friday temperatures will fall back into the 50s as cloud cover and a chance of showers remain.
LONG TERM. (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 318 AM CDT Thu Apr 22 2021
The long term will start with another shot of cold air for the weekend, with highs struggling to get out of the 40s, with even a threat of snow existing both Saturday and Sunday mornings. A strong storm system looks to track across the central CONUS early next week, with multiple chances for rain Sunday through Wednesday night. At this point, any severe threat looks pretty minimal, with much of the rain being elevated in the form of WAA precip Sunday and Monday, switching to a cold sector deformation band for Tuesday into Wednesday.
For this weekend, we'll see a long wave trough and associated cold front working across the area Friday night into Saturday morning. Moisture will be lacking, but most models show some light QPF (less than 0.1") mainly north of the I-94 corridor. Given the light QPF, NBM PoPs may be underdone some. Wet bulb zero profiles show it being cold enough where most of what we see would likely be snow, though with amounts as light as they are, there wouldn't be any accumulations. We'll see a trend toward clearing skies Saturday afternoon, but with h85 temps back down around -4C, it will be another day where highs will largely be in the 40s. For Sunday, we'll see zonal flow develop beneath rising heights, with h85 WAA likely leading to the development of a band of showers moving across the area. Again, wet bulb profiles look cold enough to where a mix, or just plain snow will be possible Sunday morning. This time the threat for accumulating snow is not out of the question, especially over central MN if we get enough precip in there early Sunday morning. This precip and associated clouds will also keep temperatures on the cool side Sunday, with highs once again expected to remain largely in the 40s.
For Monday through Wednesday, we're seeing a trend in the models with the upper trough working across the central CONUS maintaining more of a positive tilt, with the primary surface low remain to our south. Monday looks to be our best shot at seeing warmer temperatures, though a large south to north temperature spread is likely across MN. The north half of the state will likely see rain and clouds much of the day with another round of WAA precip looking likely. A warm sector will nudge into southern MN that looks warm, dry, and capped. it's not out of the realm of possibility that we could see highs into the low 80s along the I-90 corridor, while the northern border of our area remains some 35 degrees colder.
Monday night, a warm/stationary front looks to sharpen up just to our south and east, with deformation precip looking to become more widespread through Tuesday. The warm airmass getting pulled up into this deformation band will be quite unstable, so this looks to be a showers with embedded thunderstorms type of setup. Some severe weather, with hail from elevated storms may also be possible for south central into southeast MN, but at the moment, that looks to be the extent of any severe threat we see next week. Given the positive tilt of the main upper wave, this will be a slow moving front, with showers looking to linger though much of Wednesday as well before stronger northwest winds finally look to dry us out, though cool us down to end this period on Thursday.
AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) Issued at 530 AM CDT Thu Apr 22 2021
Confidence remains high that VFR conditions will continue through 03z. After 03z MVFR/IFR conditions will deteriorate from KRWF- KAXN with -SHRA. These conditions will spread northeast affecting KSTC- KMSP-KMKT between 06-12z. West central Wisconsin will likely remain VFR through the TAF period. Gusty west/west-southwest winds will develop today with a few gusts of 20-22 kts over west central/southwest Minnesota. Winds will back to the southwest by mid/late afternoon.
Confidence still remains high that the MVFR, possibly IFR at times, develops between 09-12z. Once the lower cigs develop, it will likely hold through the TAF period. The best chance of SHRA occurs between 10-14z. Southwest winds around 5-10 kts early will become west at 12-14 kts by noon, then back to the southwest during the mid-late afternoon.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Fri night . MVFR possible. Wind less than 10 kt bcmg NW. Sat . MVFR possible. Wind NW 10 kts bcmg N. Sat night . VFR. Wind Variable around 5 kts bcmg SE. Sunday . MVFR poss. Chc RA/SN. Wind SE 10 to 20 kts.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MN . None. WI . None.
SHORT TERM . JLT LONG TERM . MPG AVIATION . JLT
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Airport ReportsEDIT (on/off)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
|Downtown Holman Field, MN||3 mi||20 min||W 10||10.00 mi||Fair||51°F||25°F||36%||1015.9 hPa|
|South St. Paul Municipal-Richard E. Flemi, MN||9 mi||18 min||W 7 G 14||10.00 mi||Fair||49°F||25°F||39%||1015.6 hPa|
|Lake Elmo Airport, MN||9 mi||45 min||W 7||10.00 mi||Fair||46°F||25°F||43%||1015.6 hPa|
|Minneapolis, Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, MN||12 mi||20 min||W 9||10.00 mi||Fair||50°F||25°F||38%||1016 hPa|
|Minneapolis / Blaine, MN||20 mi||28 min||W 10||10.00 mi||Fair||50°F||25°F||37%||1014.9 hPa|
|Minneapolis, Crystal Airport, MN||23 mi||20 min||W 12 G 18||10.00 mi||Fair||52°F||25°F||35%||1015.2 hPa|
|Minneapolis, Airlake Airport, MN||23 mi||18 min||W 16||10.00 mi||Fair||50°F||21°F||32%||1015.6 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KSTP
Wind History from STP (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||N|
|2 days ago||N|
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