Friday, September25, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Landfall, MN

Version 3.4
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8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 7:04PM Friday September 25, 2020 9:14 AM CDT (14:14 UTC) Moonrise 3:28PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 59% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Landfall, MN
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location: 44.92, -93     debug


Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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FXUS63 KMPX 251127 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 627 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2020

SHORT TERM. (Today through Saturday) Issued at 344 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2020

The short term period will feature two frontal passages, the first this afternoon and the second Saturday afternoon. These two fronts looks somewhat similar as well, with highs into the low 80s out ahead of them, with chances for thunderstorms, including severe weather, across northern Wisconsin by the time storms get going. Any significant CAA does not happen until Saturday night, so we have two more days of summer-like warmth to enjoy before we start switching our air feed around to Canada.

Overnight, we've seen fog expand to the north of a warm front that was stretched out from roughly Rochester to Alexandria. This fog/stratus will burn off pretty quick this morning as the arrival of the h85 thermal ridge currently moving across SoDak pushes this front back north toward Lake Superior. This afternoon, shortwave energy currently over NoDak will be moving across northern MN. At the surface, a weak surface low will track from near Aberdeen, SD, to the Ashland, WI area. Thunderstorm activity looks to be focused along and north of the low path, with capping looking quite strong south of the low track. As a result, reduced PoPs for the afternoon, with best chances for thunderstorms along the US-8 corridor in WI. With 50 kts of deep layer shear and 2000+ j/kg of mlCAPE, storms that do develop this afternoon will have a good chance of being severe, but right now those chances look to be mainly north of the MPX area. Other change to the forecast for today was to drop afternoon dewpoints quite a bit in western MN behind the front. HREF min RH falls into the upper teens out west and mixed layer dewpoints from the NAM fall into the 30s (20s for the GFS). Both good indications blended dewpoints are too high in the west for the afternoon. Decrease in dewpoints results in humidities forecast to drop into the 20s, with sustained west winds near 15 mph. As a result, we are expecting near critical fire weather conditions in the west today and will headline the FWF to highlight the increased fire weather threat out west today.

Tonight, zonal jet will move over the area, which will result in mainly cloudy skies, which will keep us from repeating the dense fog we see out there now. The main difference between Saturday and today is that the upper wave and surface lows moving through the region during the afternoon will both be a little farther south than today. Again, storm chances look best along and north of the low track, with strong capping keeping storms at bay south of the low. This will bring better storm chances into our WI counties Saturday afternoon, with a CAPE/shear parameter space again favorable for storm organization and severe weather.

LONG TERM. (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 344 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2020

The long term period will be characterized by cooling temperatures, a few chances for light showers and breezy northwest winds.

The overall pattern shifts towards Autumn next week with a strong jet flowing southward out of western Canada that will ride down the western side of troughing over the upper midwest and south central Canada. The result will be a strongly amplified pattern with ridging in the western CONUS and a deep trough in the central and eastern CONUS. A surface low will spin up somewhere around the lower Mississippi Valley and quickly track northeast. The deterministic models diverge quite a bit on the evolution of this system, but they all keep the CWA under broad upper level cyclonic flow which will keep mainly low PoPs going across most off the area through Wednesday, with the better chances for seeing precipitation in the more eastern portions of the forecast area. The pressure gradient will tighten as the low pressure system deepens resulting in breezy northwest winds for much of next week. It looks like the best timing for better chances for showers will be on Tuesday as the aforementioned low pressure system moves northeastward through the Great Lakes region. Strong CAA behind this system will drop the high temperatures into the 50s by midweek with overnight lows falling into the 30s by the end of the week. We will have to watch for frost/freeze possibilities.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) Issued at 627 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2020

Don't expect fog/stratus northeast of I-94 to stick around long this morning as strong warm air advection develops this morning, quickly pushing the warm front and the cloud cover associated with it north of the area. It will be VFR the rest of the day, with thunderstorm potential this afternoon looking best north of MPX terminals, though can't rule out seeing some shra/tsra at RNH/EAU, but confidence in convection occurring that far south today is too low to include a precip mention at the WI terminals. Models show dense fog returning tonight in WI, though there looks to be quite a bit more mid-high cloud cover to contend with tonight, this may preclude fg/br currently mention in TAFs for tonight at RNH/EAU from occurring.

KMSP . Confidence is high front coming through this afternoon comes through dry. Otherwise it's VFR all the way, with next fropa lurking near the end of the TAF period.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Sat . VFR. Wind SE to SW 5-15 kts. Sun . VFR. Wind WNW at 15G25 kts. Mon . VFR. Wind NW at 15G25 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MN . Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for Chisago- Goodhue-Isanti-Kanabec-Mille Lacs.

WI . Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for Barron- Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.



SHORT TERM . MPG LONG TERM . CEO AVIATION . MPG


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Downtown Holman Field, MN3 mi21 minSE 610.00 miPartly Cloudy63°F59°F87%1007.6 hPa
South St. Paul Municipal-Richard E. Flemi, MN9 mi19 minSE 410.00 miFair62°F60°F94%1007.8 hPa
Lake Elmo Airport, MN9 mi39 minSE 510.00 miPartly Cloudy59°F59°F100%1008.8 hPa
Minneapolis, Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, MN12 mi21 minSE 710.00 miPartly Cloudy62°F59°F90%1007.4 hPa
Minneapolis / Blaine, MN20 mi29 minSSE 47.00 miMostly Cloudy64°F62°F94%1007.8 hPa
Minneapolis, Crystal Airport, MN23 mi21 minSE 710.00 miFair63°F59°F87%1006.6 hPa
Minneapolis, Airlake Airport, MN23 mi39 minN 07.00 miFair61°F60°F100%1008.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSTP

Wind History from STP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN8E6344N4NE5N5NE8N5NE4CalmCalmS3SE4E3SE6SE8SE7SE8SE6SE5SE8SE6
1 day agoSE5SE6SE7SE5S9SW7
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S6W6S3CalmE3SE5SE5SE3E3CalmN3N5NE11NE8
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2 days agoCalmSE3SE5S6S7SE6S8S8SW5CalmSE4SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4SE5SE6S4S5S4SE5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station Minneapolis, MN
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