Saturday, December7, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Landfall, MN

Version 3.4
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10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:34AMSunset 4:32PM Saturday December 7, 2019 2:13 PM CST (20:13 UTC) Moonrise 2:26PMMoonset 2:33AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Landfall, MN
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Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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FXUS63 KMPX 071638 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1038 AM CST Sat Dec 7 2019

SHORT TERM. (This afternoon through Sunday afternoon) Issued at 954 AM CST Sat Dec 7 2019

Surface analysis shows extensive high pressure from the northeastern CONUS through the Deep South. A warm front is nudging its way eastward across the Dakotas into far western MN with an associated cold front over south-central Canada into Montana.

Plenty of cloud cover is evident over much of the Dakotas through MN/WI on satellite imagery in advance of the frontal boundaries and the extensive cloud cover is expected to remain in place through Sunday afternoon. While warm air advection will commence today after the cold day experienced yesterday, it will be tempered by the cloud cover and also create a small diurnal range from today to tonight to Sunday. After lows this morning in the teens to lower 20s area-wide, highs today climbed into the 30s, particularly mid-to-high range. Lows tonight will only drop to the mid 20s to lower 30s, followed by highs on Sunday from the upper 20s to mid 30s.

As the surface front approaches and cloud layers lower, the low- to-mid levels will still have some degree of dry air available which will help mitigate the development of precipitation during the daylight hours on Sunday. Models have continued to show the recent slow northward shift in the main precipitation initiation band so have reflected this by keeping the Sunday daytime hours dry. That said, a few patches of light freezing drizzle and/or flurries cannot be ruled out for portions of central Minnesota (mainly from Douglas county eastward thru Kanabec county). May need to see how this is handled right around that 00z timeframe to determine if a mention may be warranted for late Sunday afternoon.

LONG TERM. (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 325 AM CST Sat Dec 7 2019

700-600mb frontogenesis enters west central MN between 21Z Sunday and 00Z Monday, and spreads eastward overnight into Monday morning. The primary change in models (with the exception of the NAM) was a slight northward shift in the axis of heavier snowfall amounts, which now hugs the I-94 corridor and a few rows of counties to its north. Still looks like a solid 3-5 inch event for central MN/WI, with amounts tapering down to around 1 inch along the I-90 corridor.

Deep upper troughing will be in place across eastern North America for the majority of the latter forecast period, with cold and dry northwest flow across the upper Midwest. The western ridge looks to flatten later in the week, and the pattern will de- amplify downstream, with the flow becoming more zonal by week's end. There are no significant forecast concerns from Tuesday through Saturday, with a few chances for light precipitation from Thursday into Saturday. The guidance envelope does include a few solutions that lift a surface low up into the Great Lakes region from Friday into Saturday, but at this point the overwhelming consensus with that feature (for the solutions that support it) is to keep it well to our east. Our main precipitation chances from Thursday though Saturday will be tied to weak quick moving shortwave troughs embedded in the developing westerly flow, and with significant differences in timing and location (as to be expected), there is an extended period of fairly low PoPs in the forecast to account for the potential.

High pressure and an Arctic airmass will build into the region Tuesday into Wednesday, and remain entrenched through early Thursday. Details such as cloud cover and winds will dictate exactly how cold we get, making it tough to stray too far from consensus guidance at this point. However, with the expectation of some new snowfall Sunday into Monday, it seems we should be on the colder side of the guidance given the anticipated airmass. With that in mind, trended temperatures Tuesday through Wednesday night closer to the 25th percentile of available guidance. Return flow and moderation of temperatures will setup later on Thursday, and we'll see some chances for precipitation from then into the weekend as a few shortwave troughs and surface frontal boundaries traverse the region. At this point, any precipitation during that period looks to be in the form of snow with temperatures (surface and aloft) expected to remain below freezing.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) Issued at 954 AM CST Sat Dec 7 2019

VFR conditions at all TAF sites to start but with gradually lowering ceilings from the pre-dawn hours through the day Sunday, down to IFR levels by Sunday afternoon. No precipitation expected through 18z Sunday but there is a small, non-zero chance of either FZDZ or SHSN in portions of western MN prior to 00z Monday. Thus, later TAFs will evaluate the need to include precip at TAFs such as KAXN-KSTC prior to 00z. The other main concern will be winds in the lower levels late this afternoon through the evening hours. A strong low level jet with the warm front will push SW winds to around 45-50kt at 2kft with surface winds still southerly. Even with surface winds reaching 15G25kt, the vector difference leads to keeping LLWS mention in the TAFs.

KMSP . Ceilings will come close to dropping to IFR levels around midday Sunday and lasting through the rest of the day. This seems a bit bullish at this point so have kept ceilings within MVFR range, but still a good shot at ceilings below 1700ft. Have also kept mention of LLWS going at KMSP since the swath of strong low winds will be rather broad over much of southern MN through southern WI.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Mon . IFR/SN likely, mainly in the morning. Several inches possible. Wind NNE bcmg NNW 10-15G25 kts. Tue . VFR but bitterly cold with wind chills in negative teens. Wind NW 5-15 kts. Wed . VFR but bitterly cold with wind chills in negative teens. Wind W 5 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. MN . None.

SHORT TERM . JPC LONG TERM . AVIATION . JPC


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Downtown Holman Field, MN3 mi21 minSSE 1210.00 miFair32°F24°F73%1016.8 hPa
South St. Paul Municipal-Richard E. Flemi, MN9 mi19 minSSE 10 G 1410.00 miFair33°F24°F72%1015.6 hPa
Lake Elmo Airport, MN9 mi19 minS 10 G 1910.00 miFair32°F26°F80%1015.9 hPa
Minneapolis, Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, MN12 mi21 minSSE 1010.00 miOvercast33°F24°F70%1016.5 hPa
Minneapolis / Blaine, MN20 mi29 minSSE 12 G 1810.00 miMostly Cloudy34°F24°F70%1014.9 hPa
Minneapolis, Crystal Airport, MN23 mi21 minSSE 910.00 miFair33°F24°F70%1015.7 hPa
Minneapolis, Airlake Airport, MN23 mi19 minS 810.00 miFair36°F28°F75%1015.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSTP

Wind History from STP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr3SW5SW6SW4S5S7S8S9S6S7SE8SE7SE3S4S5S4E4S3SE7SE8SE9S12SE10S12
1 day agoS3CalmNW7NW10NW8NW12N10
G18
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NW10NW7NW10NW11NW15NW13NW11NW9NW11NW7NW9NW6NW7CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoW9W6W8W5W3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmS4SE6SE7SE7S6S8S7S7S4E3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Twin Cities, MN (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Minneapolis, MN
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.