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FXUS63 KMPX 090925 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 325 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow with minor accumulations and gusty northwest winds are expected today, though impacts to travel should be limited.

- Temperatures will closer to normal through early next week, but we look to see highs in the 40s return once again for mid to late next week.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 324 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

Surface analysis this morning shows a surface low over the Arrowhead, with a trailing cold front to the southwest across MN.
There is a broad band of mainly light snow trailing the cold front from northwest MN into eastern SoDak that is being forced by PVA and some deformation. There is a band of heavier snow that's likely overachieving a bit from Grand Forks to Roseau, but we will not get into anything like what the northwest corner of the state is dealing with this morning. Not much has changed with the forecast of this feature overnight, with about 4 to 7 hours of snow occurring at any given location today. QPF amounts look to come in around 0.1", which will translate to 1-2" of snow for many. The lowest totals are expected down along the I-90 corridor, where much more than a dusting looks unlikely. The highest totals will be in central MN, closer to the path of the h7 low, but even here, an overachieving snow amount would be 2.5". Beside the snow, northwest winds will become quite gusty behind the front, with wind gusts up around 45 mph still expected in southwest MN, where we've maintained a wind advisory for today.

After today, it's back into the land of meteorological boredom, with precipitation looking pretty unlikely next week. Early next week, a strong surface low will pass well to our north in Canada, with another warm sector heading in ahead of the cold front on Monday, with highs in the 40s making a return to at least southwest MN on Monday. Monday night will see a cold front sweep through followed by a very brief shot of cooler air for Tuesday. By Wednesday, an h5 ridge with heights some 3 standard deviations above normal will move out across the international border, which will result in another shot of very mild air Wednesday through Friday, when highs will again be running 10 to 20 degrees above normal. The warmest day next week still looks to be Thursday, with the NBM 90th percentile for highs still painting the potential for highs in the 50s making it all the way up to the I-94 corridor. There does look to be a weak cold front moving down into the area to end next week, but with MN/WI stuck in the no-man's land between the southern and northern jets, we'll likely be hard pressed to get anything precip wise out of that front. Looking a little farther out, the EPS mean h85 temps show another burst of anomalously warm air moving across Canada and the northern US in the week leading up to Christmas. Not only is our chances for a white Christmas looking pretty bleak this year, but even having dependable ice on area lakes by Christmas is looking pretty bleak as well.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 1043 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

VFR to start the period with a rapid change to MVFR/IFR once the cold front arrives bringing snow and gusty northwesterly winds with it. The arrival of the front will be staggered, arriving in AXN by sunrise, STC by 13-14z, and MSP by 17-18z. Visibility reductions are likely as snow falls, especially with winds increasing with gusts exceeding 30kts possible immediately behind the front. Snow accumulations will be difficult to fully measure due to the winds, however around 1 inch still seems most likely for most sites with a bit more for AXN. After the front passes, the winds will slowly decreasing with visibility improving and VFR conditions returning by the end of the period for all but EAU/RNH. There is high confidence in all sites seeing snow, with medium confidence in amounts mainly due to the winds, and medium to high confidence in timing with timing being refined as CAMS continue to capture the system moving forward.

KMSP...Snow timing continues to remain fairly consistent, and will be closely watched as more short-range models begin to capture the main feature. Still high confidence in a period of 1-2sm visibility from roughly midday to late afternoon, with higher visibility but still snow possible as early as 15z and tapering off into the evening. Blowing snow is likely the main cause for lower visibility, rather than excessive snowfall rates, but the combination of the highest rates and increasing winds will result in the lowest visibility during the afternoon.
Still around 1 inch of accumulation is expected for MSP at this time.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...MVFR early, then VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.
MON...VFR. Wind SW 10-15kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind NW 10-15kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening for MNZ054-064-073-074-082-091.
WI...None.

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