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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Landfall, MN

June 25, 2024 11:27 AM CDT (16:27 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:25 AM   Sunset 9:04 PM
Moonrise 11:06 PM   Moonset 8:14 AM 
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Landfall, MN
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Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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844 FXUS63 KMPX 251110 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 610 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers are expected tonight, but precip amounts will be light and no severe weather is expected.

- Next periods of unsettled weather will be Thursday night into Friday and again Monday into Tuesday next week.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 319 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Eventually we got an MCS to form in the extreme instability environment we had on Monday, but it got going over northwest WI and made its way to Green Bay overnight, only impacting the WI portion of our area to the north of I-94. Early this morning, surface analysis shows a surface low near the southwest tail of the MCS that developed. There are a couple of surface frontal boundaries. The main cold front extends southwest from the low back into central Iowa. This has the wind shift over to the northwest, but the drop in dewpoints is an east/west boundary that was back across central MN at 3am. This secondary boundary will continue to sag south through the day and by the afternoon will meet up with the cold front north of I-80 in Iowa. This means that through the morning, our instability will be dropping appreciably. Although we`ll have some lingering instability in south central MN, the redevelopment of thunderstorms this afternoon will be well south of the MPX area. Instead, we`re waiting on the shortwave currently over southern Alberta for our next chance of rain. This will come through central & southern MN tonight and most of the CAMs show some scattered showers associated with it. Although we`ll have this forcing, by then, our moisture will be considerably lower and instability almost non existent. So no severe weather is anticipated and rainfall amounts will be light (less than a quarter of an inch).

We get high pressure and dry weather for Wednesday, but will get on the backside of the high on Thursday, with moisture quickly starting to return north ahead of the next shortwave that will pass along the international border Thursday night. The trend in the highest QPF being north and south of the MPX noted in the last couple of AFDs continued with the 00z models overnight. We`re seeing higher QPF with the better forcing up along the international border, with another bullseye near the IA/MO border associated with the higher moisture. Still, we`ll have favorable diffluent flow aloft move through with the trough Thursday night, with widespread showers and storms expected, but the forcing with this system continues to favor any heavy rain issues being isolated at best. By then, all but the lower MN and MS rivers will be on a downward trend and it doesn`t look like the rainfall associated with this system will be heavy enough to reverse those trends.

Next weekend still looks spectacular with dry weather and highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s, but with the seasonably strong zonal flow still in place, we won`t have to wait long for our next chance of precip. That comes early next week. Guidance shows a shortwave taking on a more negative tilt as it moves through the upper MS Valley Monday night, so the resultant system will likely be a bit stronger than what we see at the end of the week. We`re still a ways out, but at this point the system early next week would be something to keep an eye on from the severe weather and heavy rain perspective. The flow will still be progressive though, so this system does not look like it will linger into the 4th of July holiday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 600 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

A much quieter 24-30 hours is in store with west to northwest surface winds dominating. There will be a couple of chances for showers, but neither look high enough to include in the TAFs.
The first comes late morning for RWF/MKT with activity currently over SoDak working across the moisture gradient sliding south.
The second comes with the arrival of a stronger shortwave overnight. In both cases, dry low level air, then a lack of instability for tonight look to minimize our precip chances this period.

KMSP...No additional concerns with a much needed TS free VFR TAF period.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED
WED
VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
THU...VFR. MVFR/-TSRA likely overnight. Wind S 5-10 kts.
FRI...VFR. MVFR/-TSRA likely mrng. Wind SW bcmg NW 10-15 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.




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