Marine Weather and Tides
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
|Sunrise 7:38AM||Sunset 5:14PM||Monday January 25, 2021 2:51 PM CST (20:51 UTC)||Moonrise 2:09PM||Moonset 5:22AM||Illumination 94%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tonka Bay, MNHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KMPX 251815 AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1215 PM CST Mon Jan 25 2021
SHORT TERM. (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 339 AM CST Mon Jan 25 2021
There are two main forces in play today into Tuesday: the high pressure over the Canadian Prairies and the the winter storm moving across the Midwest. Minnesota and west central Wisconsin will be caught between these two as the snow system tracks to our south and the high remains to our north. This will leave most of us us dry with some cloud cover. Parts of southern Minnesota along and south of I-90 could see some light snow from this system, less than an inch of snow accumulation is expected in this area.
While there is little chance of snow, the battle between the dry air from Canada and the more moist air from the system to the south will have an impact on our cloud cover. If the dry air wins out then we will have clearer skies, but if the moisture from the south wins out than expect cloudier skies. Most likely looking at partly cloudy conditions. This is most important overnight as less cloud cover means more radiational cooling and therefore colder temperatures. This is especially important thanks to a relatively fresh snow pack from Saturday's snow. This leads to uncertainty in the low temperature forecast for tonight ranging from below zero (generally north of the Twin Cities) to the mid teens. So to sum it up clear skies means lows near zero and cloudy skies means lows in the teens.
LONG TERM. (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 339 AM CST Mon Jan 25 2021
The Canadian high pressure continues to dominate the Upper Midwest until it gets displaced by the next system moving in this next weekend. This high pressure will help to keep us dry and near seasonal normals with highs in the low 20s and lows in the single digits above zero. Cloud cover will continue to be important overnight as clear skies could lead to colder, below normal temperatures. Wednesday night will be the Twin Cities' best chance to get below zero for the first time this month as the 25th to 75th percentile range in NBM is -3 to 5 at MSP Airport. MSP Airport typically falls below zero 11 times in January. Thursday into the weekend the pattern will begin to change with 850 mb flow shifting to the south. This southerly flow will provide warm air advection and the start of a warming trend. Daily high temperatures could return to above freezing Friday into the weekend.
Bottom line up front with this system next weekend is that rain and snow is expected in the Upper Midwest, but there remains too much uncertainty for specific impacts to be determined at this time. The variability in model systems mentioned in the previous discussion continues. So while there is measurable precipitation in almost every member of the GEFS and EPS there a wide forecast envelope. Using the GEFS at MSP for example QPF varies from zero up to around an inch. In addition to the wide QPF envelope there is also the concern with precipitation type. This system looks to have a fair amount of warmer, above freezing air wrapped up in it. Where the model guidance currently varies is how far north this warm air makes it and at what level of the atmosphere. The level of the atmosphere matters when determining the forecast between sleet, rain, freezing rain, and snow as the level ice melts or refreezes at determines the precipitation type.
AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 1215 PM CST Mon Jan 25 2021
Only issue this period surrounds how far southwest MVFR cigs coming off of Lake Superior tonight will reach. HREF, RAP, and LAV show these clouds reaching into eastern MN/western WI to some extent late tonight into Tuesday morning. For now, added a sct025 to MSP/RNH/EAU to cover this threat until we get more confidence on what their coverage/extent will be.
KMSP . Threat for MVFR cigs will start as early as 8z. And will last through the morning, with some improvements likely by the afternoon as the system to our south moves into the Great Lakes.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Wed . VFR. Wind N 5 kts. Thu . VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts. Fri . MVFR/IFR cigs. Wind SE 15G25 kts.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MN . None. WI . None.
SHORT TERM . NDC LONG TERM . NDC AVIATION . MPG
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Airport ReportsEDIT (on/off)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
|Minneapolis - Flying Cloud Airport, MN||9 mi||59 min||ENE 9||10.00 mi||Mostly Cloudy||20°F||-3°F||36%||1019.8 hPa|
|Minneapolis, Crystal Airport, MN||16 mi||59 min||ENE 8||10.00 mi||Partly Cloudy||19°F||-4°F||36%||1020.7 hPa|
|Minneapolis, Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, MN||20 mi||59 min||ENE 8||10.00 mi||A Few Clouds||21°F||-3°F||34%||1020.2 hPa|
|Buffalo, Buffalo Municipal Airport, MN||21 mi||57 min||no data||10.00 mi||Fair||19°F||-4°F||36%||1019.3 hPa|
|South St. Paul Municipal-Richard E. Flemi, MN||24 mi||57 min||ENE 7||10.00 mi||Fair||21°F||-5°F||31%||1019 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KFCM
Wind History from FCM (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||S||SE||SE||SE||SE||SE||SE||SE||SE||SE||SE||SE||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||N||N||NW||Calm||NW||W||N|
|2 days ago||W||SW||SW||Calm||S||S||S||S||Calm||SE||S||SE||S||S||S||S||S||S||S||S||S||SE||SE||S |
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific Contential US Full GOES-East
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