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FXUS63 KMPX 272336 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 636 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- A cool & rainy day is on tap for Sunday.

- Another round of showers & thunderstorms likely on Tuesday, with a few stronger storms possible across S MN.

- Rest of next week looks dry with seasonable temperatures.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Satellite imagery highlights a potent mid-level trough over the western CONUS with a more vigorous shortwave evident over the Four Corners region. Our sfc low is moving over Lake Superior leaving the Upper Mississippi valley in the wake with northwest or westerly winds and seasonable temperatures. Speaking of temperatures, Looking back toward the southern Plains, another developing sfc low is ejecting out of the Four Corners and will trek into the Plains later today. Current obs reveal temperatures in the mid to upper 50s with 10-15mph W/NW winds.
Dry conditions last into the overnight period ahead of the next system that'll bring another round of rain & wind on Sunday.

For Sunday, We've seen things continue to slow down vs previous guidance runs. PoPs really ramp up after 12z Sunday morning so tonight should remain dry for most of us. Our sfc low looks to remain to our south on Sunday and this will keep us on the cooler side. High temperatures will be rather brisk, struggling to hit 50 outside of the I-90 corridor, with a steady rain expected as well. As for the severe risk, SPC day 2 places I-90 and S MN into the Marginal risk category but guidance doesn't seem all to excited with storms in S MN. The better environment stays off to our south and east in Iowa & Wisconsin as the warm front really doesn't clear our counties. An isolated storm or two will be possible in S MN, particularly late afternoon into Sunday evening, with a non-zero chance of becoming strong or severe.

Looking at the week ahead, we'll dry out and remain cooler to start the week with high temps in the low to mid 50s on Monday. The cooldown doesn't last long as a warm front moves through Monday night into Tuesday, with temperatures forecast into the low to mid 70s Tuesday afternoon. Along with the warmer temperatures comes another, arguably better set up for thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon. Guidance tracks a healthy shortwave through the Dakotas on Tuesday. NBM ramps up the PoPs Tuesday afternoon. This system tracks the cold front through southern & central MN Tuesday afternoon & evening. This lines up nicely with diurnal heating maxima and should mean we're dealing with convection vs stratiform rain. There will be a severe risk with a low CAPE/higher shear set up looking to play out. Forecast soundings highlight a few 100 J/Kg of surface- based instability and 35+ kts of effective shear & curved hodographs. Our limiting factor will be the lack of sufficient lapse rates and that should keep the severe threat to an isolated strong storm or two vs many. Still, this looks to be an environment that could support a few marginally severe storms.

Afterward Tuesday, we'll return to cooler seasonable temperatures (50s/60s) and a break from precipitation until next weekend. So why does the forecast have a slight chance for showers Thursday and Friday if guidance is mostly dry? The NBM's make up contains a lot of ensemble members that likely feature timing differences or features that likely won't impact us. This time of year going forward 30 to 40 PoPs are pretty standard despite no driving system in the deterministic models. So, the NBM is actually favoring drier conditions which DOES line up with the bulk of the ensemble guidance. In reality, seasonable temperatures and a stretch of dry weather will wrap up the week before next weekend. Guidance is beginning to hint at another low pressure tracking into the Upper Midwest that would give us yet another damp/cool weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 611 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Generally MVFR ceilings to start (with a few sites just 1-2 hundred feet above that level but are expected to drop below not long after initialization), with IFR ceilings expected during the day tomorrow as rain moves in from the south and will overspread all TAF sites. Too much uncertainty to place CB/TS at any given site, so while the chance is non-zero, trying to pinpoint any convection is too problematic to include in this set of TAFs. Northerly winds around 10kts to start will become NE and increase to around 15G25kts shortly after daybreak Sunday, potentially to near 20G30kts. Winds will continue to veer to E by Sunday evening.

KMSP...Kept the dropping-ceiling trend the same from the previous TAF set, and held off precipitation mention until after daybreak Sunday. Still no mention of CB/TS as uncertainty is too high, but will continue to evaluate for later mention. Main issue may be strong NE winds which could cause crosswind complications for the parallel runways.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...MVFR/-SHRA early, then VFR. Wind WSW 15-20G30 kts.
TUE...VFR in the morning, MVFR/-TSRA likely in the afternoon/evening. Wind SW bcmg NW 10-15 kts.
WED...VFR, chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind light/variable.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.

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