Monday, January25, 2021
Privacy Policy
L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tides
Tonka Bay, MN

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:38AMSunset 5:14PM Monday January 25, 2021 2:51 PM CST (20:51 UTC) Moonrise 2:09PMMoonset 5:22AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tonka Bay, MN
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 44.92, -93.6     debug


Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KMPX 251815 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1215 PM CST Mon Jan 25 2021

SHORT TERM. (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 339 AM CST Mon Jan 25 2021

There are two main forces in play today into Tuesday: the high pressure over the Canadian Prairies and the the winter storm moving across the Midwest. Minnesota and west central Wisconsin will be caught between these two as the snow system tracks to our south and the high remains to our north. This will leave most of us us dry with some cloud cover. Parts of southern Minnesota along and south of I-90 could see some light snow from this system, less than an inch of snow accumulation is expected in this area.

While there is little chance of snow, the battle between the dry air from Canada and the more moist air from the system to the south will have an impact on our cloud cover. If the dry air wins out then we will have clearer skies, but if the moisture from the south wins out than expect cloudier skies. Most likely looking at partly cloudy conditions. This is most important overnight as less cloud cover means more radiational cooling and therefore colder temperatures. This is especially important thanks to a relatively fresh snow pack from Saturday's snow. This leads to uncertainty in the low temperature forecast for tonight ranging from below zero (generally north of the Twin Cities) to the mid teens. So to sum it up clear skies means lows near zero and cloudy skies means lows in the teens.

LONG TERM. (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 339 AM CST Mon Jan 25 2021

The Canadian high pressure continues to dominate the Upper Midwest until it gets displaced by the next system moving in this next weekend. This high pressure will help to keep us dry and near seasonal normals with highs in the low 20s and lows in the single digits above zero. Cloud cover will continue to be important overnight as clear skies could lead to colder, below normal temperatures. Wednesday night will be the Twin Cities' best chance to get below zero for the first time this month as the 25th to 75th percentile range in NBM is -3 to 5 at MSP Airport. MSP Airport typically falls below zero 11 times in January. Thursday into the weekend the pattern will begin to change with 850 mb flow shifting to the south. This southerly flow will provide warm air advection and the start of a warming trend. Daily high temperatures could return to above freezing Friday into the weekend.

Bottom line up front with this system next weekend is that rain and snow is expected in the Upper Midwest, but there remains too much uncertainty for specific impacts to be determined at this time. The variability in model systems mentioned in the previous discussion continues. So while there is measurable precipitation in almost every member of the GEFS and EPS there a wide forecast envelope. Using the GEFS at MSP for example QPF varies from zero up to around an inch. In addition to the wide QPF envelope there is also the concern with precipitation type. This system looks to have a fair amount of warmer, above freezing air wrapped up in it. Where the model guidance currently varies is how far north this warm air makes it and at what level of the atmosphere. The level of the atmosphere matters when determining the forecast between sleet, rain, freezing rain, and snow as the level ice melts or refreezes at determines the precipitation type.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 1215 PM CST Mon Jan 25 2021

Only issue this period surrounds how far southwest MVFR cigs coming off of Lake Superior tonight will reach. HREF, RAP, and LAV show these clouds reaching into eastern MN/western WI to some extent late tonight into Tuesday morning. For now, added a sct025 to MSP/RNH/EAU to cover this threat until we get more confidence on what their coverage/extent will be.

KMSP . Threat for MVFR cigs will start as early as 8z. And will last through the morning, with some improvements likely by the afternoon as the system to our south moves into the Great Lakes.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Wed . VFR. Wind N 5 kts. Thu . VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts. Fri . MVFR/IFR cigs. Wind SE 15G25 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MN . None. WI . None.

SHORT TERM . NDC LONG TERM . NDC AVIATION . MPG


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Minneapolis - Flying Cloud Airport, MN9 mi59 minENE 910.00 miMostly Cloudy20°F-3°F36%1019.8 hPa
Minneapolis, Crystal Airport, MN16 mi59 minENE 810.00 miPartly Cloudy19°F-4°F36%1020.7 hPa
Minneapolis, Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, MN20 mi59 minENE 810.00 miA Few Clouds21°F-3°F34%1020.2 hPa
Buffalo, Buffalo Municipal Airport, MN21 mi57 minno data10.00 miFair19°F-4°F36%1019.3 hPa
South St. Paul Municipal-Richard E. Flemi, MN24 mi57 minENE 710.00 miFair21°F-5°F31%1019 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFCM

Wind History from FCM (wind in knots)
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
Last 24hrNW7NW7NW5NW3NW4N6N6NE6NE4NE7NE6NE7NE8NE7NE6E7NE8NE9NE7NE11
G17
NE9
G17
NE10NE9E9
1 day agoS10SE10SE10SE10SE11SE7SE10SE8SE5SE4SE3SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN7N6NW8CalmNW6W4N4
2 days agoW7SW5SW5CalmS4S4S3S3CalmSE3S5SE3S4S6S4S5S6S8S7S7S8SE9SE10S12

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
       (on/off)   Help Weather Map
wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station




Cookie Policy:
This website uses cookies to save your settings. No personal information is saved. I do not collect statistics on your visit. You can disable cookies in your browser if you like but it is not recommended for this site. I do not sell cookies. Go to a bakery for that. In fact I do not sell anything. To disable cookies from L-36.com, please refer to the Help button in your browser.
Privacy Policy:
I do not sell or share any user data or anything else for that matter. The only personal information I save is in the site log which has a line for each page view which includes the IP address your browser sends in the header as well as which page you requested. I use this to block hackers and other bad actors. I do not use this raw data to create profiles on users. I periodically delete the log files. Google supplies the ads on this site. Because I do not track who you are, I cannot customize how these ads are served. They may be personalized to improve the ad experience. If you do not want personalized ads, please adjust the settings on the Google site HERE. NOTE: The best I can determine, this site is not subject to CCPA but I am doing my best to comply anyway.
Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.