Monday, August26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tonka Bay, MN

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:27AMSunset 8:04PM Monday August 26, 2019 4:58 AM CDT (09:58 UTC) Moonrise 12:45AMMoonset 4:35PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tonka Bay, MN
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location: 44.92, -93.6     debug


Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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Fxus63 kmpx 260938
afdmpx
area forecast discussion
national weather service twin cities chanhassen mn
438 am cdt Mon aug 26 2019

Short term (today through Tuesday)
issued at 435 am cdt Mon aug 26 2019
the forecast remains on track this morning, with widespread showers
and a few thunderstorms developing this morning out ahead of a
trough digging into the upper midwest. The only change tonight
was to slow the onset of precipitation by a few hours, as the cold
front is still out over the eastern dakotas and precipitation is
just now spreading into western minnesota. This precipitation
will continue to spread east through the day, beginning across
central southern minnesota by mid to late morning, eastern
minnesota and the twin cities metro by early afternoon, and west-
central wisconsin by mid-afternoon. Some thunder is currently
ongoing across western minnesota, but expect this threat to
diminish towards sunrise as instability weakens further east into
west- central minnesota. Mainly rain showers are expected with the
precipitation this morning, but we will likely see a few
thunderstorms redevelop this afternoon as MUCAPE increases above
500 j kg. Still looking like a widespread soaking rainfall, with
widespread rainfall amounts of around an inch expected for the
northern 2 3rds of the cwa. Locally higher amounts around 2 inches
are possible as well, but the rainfall looks to fall over a long
enough duration to mitigate much of the flooding potential.

Precipitation comes to an end from west to east this afternoon and
evening as the front clears the area to the east.

A breezy day is expected Tuesday as the surface low deepening to our
north and approaching high pressure from the west tightens the
pressure gradient over the region. Sustained westerly winds of 20-
25 mph are expected along with gusts of up to 30-35 mph. Cold-
advection behind the front will result in steep low-level lapse
rates tomorrow, which will kick off scattered diurnally-driven
showers across the northern half of the CWA as the wrap-around
region of the cyclone pivots over the upper midwest. Precipitation
amounts should be light, less than 0.1" total. Temperatures will be
cooler tomorrow and Tuesday, with cold advection and broken overcast
skies keeping highs in the mid 60s to low-70s.

Long term (Tuesday night through Sunday)
issued at 435 am cdt Mon aug 26 2019
canadian upper low will continue to deepen through Thursday as it
heads from northwest ontario to hudson bay. Trough axis exits the
area Tuesday night, with heights rising thereafter. Upper flow does
remain out of the northwest, however, keeping cool temps across the
area Wednesday. High temps will likely remain in the 60s over most
areas on Wednesday. There is some indication a weak embedded wave
may graze northern mn and northwest wi late Tuesday night into
Wednesday, so precip chances will persist into Wednesday around
ladysmith.

One more short wave enters british columbia Tuesday, and it tracks
toward northern minnesota on Thursday. Precip should stay well to
our north, while temperatures Thursday climb a good 10 degrees
warmer than Wednesday ahead of the wave. Most locales will be back
in the 75-80 range for highs, then drop back down on Friday to 68-72
or so after passage of the short wave. High temperatures next
weekend will be close to normal, in the low and middle 70s, as the
upper flow will be mostly from the west-northwest with no apparent
systems heading our way until perhaps Sunday night and Monday, which
is when ensemble members start diverging significantly.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night)
issued at 1159 pm cdt Sun aug 25 2019
should see a few MVFR ceilings develop and rain thunder move in
from the west overnight. Later today an area of rain will spread
across the region from the southwest, and should have clouds lower
as well. There is enough instability to mention thunder in the
tafs. Should see ceilings lift from west to east during the
evening as westerly winds increase.

Kmsp...

did push back the timing of MVFR clouds one more hour to 11z since
the guidance seems to be a little to quick based on the current
trends. It still appears like the best chance for thunder will be
during the early afternoon. Should seeVFR conditions return
Monday evening as westerly winds increase.

Outlook for kmsp
tue...VFR with afternoon MVFR -shra possible. Wind W at 20g30 kt.

Wed...VFR with MVFR possible. Wind NW at 15g25 kt.

Thu...VFR. Wind wsw at 10g20 kt.

Mpx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Short term... Eta
long term... Tdk
aviation... Jrb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Minneapolis - Flying Cloud Airport, MN9 mi3.1 hrsSE 710.00 miOvercast65°F57°F78%1010.6 hPa
Minneapolis, Crystal Airport, MN16 mi3.1 hrsSSE 7 G 1510.00 miOvercast66°F57°F73%1010.6 hPa
Minneapolis, Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, MN20 mi3.1 hrsSSE 810.00 miOvercast66°F57°F73%1011.2 hPa
Buffalo, Buffalo Municipal Airport, MN21 mi4.3 hrsno data10.00 miOvercast65°F56°F75%1011.8 hPa
South St. Paul Municipal-Richard E. Flemi, MN24 mi2.4 hrsSE 610.00 miOvercast65°F56°F74%1011.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFCM

Wind History from FCM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE10SE8SE8SE9SE12
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1 day agoSE7SE8SE8SE8SE7SE9SE8SE12SE12SE13SE14
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2 days agoNE5NE4NE4E6E7SE8E8SE9SE11
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Twin Cities, MN (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Minneapolis, MN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.