Tonka Bay, MN Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Tonka Bay, MN

April 21, 2024 7:42 AM CDT (12:42 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:16 AM   Sunset 8:08 PM
Moonrise 5:04 PM   Moonset 4:27 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tonka Bay, MN
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Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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FXUS63 KMPX 211123 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 623 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Mix of showers/storms likely tomorrow into Tuesday, resulting in accumulations within a couple tenths of an inch.

- Active pattern ahead, with two potential systems moving in at the end of this week and beginning of next week.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 314 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Good Sunday morning! It'll be a nice, sunny day with the final patch of mid-level clouds finally scurrying southeastward. High temperatures will look to flirt with the 60s across much of Minnesota and western Wisconsin, and winds will be similar to yesterday with most seeing 10-15 MPH during the day. RH values will drop below 25% for areas along and west of I-35, leading to elevated fire weather conditions. Two factors that will help limit concerns are lack of strong gusts and widespread greening starting to occur.

MONDAY thru TUESDAY...The quiet weather does not last long, as a system will look to bring a couple rounds of rain to the Great Lakes region starting as early as tomorrow afternoon. Depending on the timing of the low's passage, tomorrow could be another solid day with highs in the mid-upper 60s as relatively warmer, moist air is pulled from the south. The latest suite of high res guidance is just starting to help parse out details... 1) while we do pull in moisture from the south, it doesn't look to be enough for stronger showers/storms to occur, and 2) instability looks rather weak, which will inhibit the forcing needed for stronger thunderstorms. That said, the area of general thunder on the 06z Day 2 Convective Outlook from SPC highlights the location well for where we are expecting afternoon showers/storms to pop. Any storms that develop will move northeast throughout the evening. A brief period of clouds clearing out overnight could allow instability to build for a few hours Tuesday morning, before another disturbance moves through, bringing a second shot at weak showers/storms. Areas further south and east will experience more daytime heating ahead of the system, and will have the best chance for hearing thunder. This is again highlighted well in the 0730z SPC Day 3 general thunder outlook. Total QPF has continued to trend down as the models come into more agreement, with only a couple tenths expected with this 2-day system. One final thing to note, winds will pick up again both Monday and Tuesday, with gusts up to 35 MPH possible at times.

TUESDAY NIGHT and BEYOND... Behind the fropa, temperatures will look to drop near freezing again overnight Tuesday, with areas further east seeing the highest potential for below 32F. Limited sky cover will allow highs to rise into the mid-upper 50s.
Winds will also be the lightest we've seen in a while, with only 5-10 MPH expected during the day. This will be a much welcomed form of noblesse oblige from the weather gods - in other words, a good day to take advantage of some quiet weather squeezed into a rather active period!

Going into the end of the week, temperatures will trend to near or slightly above normal. The impressive looking system continues to loom in most deterministic and ensemble guidance, further increasing confidence in an active stretch of weather Thursday into Saturday.
This could be a precursor for yet another strong system early next week, as a pronounced trough could build in the western CONUS off the heels of the Thu-Sat system.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
Issued at 618 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Solid VFR conditions expected throughout this duration. Clear skies today through this evening then high clouds slowly arrive overnight into Sunday morning. WNW winds expected through the day today, increasing to near 15G25kts then subsiding after dark and backing to SW and S.

KMSP...Breezy winds today become a little stronger on Monday after sunrise, with winds becoming S 15-20G30kts. Chances for rain increase later on Monday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...Chance MVFR/-SHRA, then VFR late. Wind NW 15-20G30-35kts.
WED...VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts.
THU...VFR. Chance MVFR/-SHRA late. Wind SE 10-15kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for Anoka-Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Dakota-Faribault-Freeborn- Goodhue-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod- Meeker-Nicollet-Redwood-Renville-Rice-Scott-Sibley-Steele- Waseca-Washington-Watonwan-Wright-Yellow Medicine.
Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for Hennepin-Ramsey.
WI...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for Chippewa-Dunn- Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-St. Croix.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KFCM FLYING CLOUD,MN 10 sm49 minWSW 0410 smClear32°F23°F69%30.17
KMIC CRYSTAL,MN 16 sm49 minW 0710 smClear37°F21°F52%30.16
KMSP MINNEAPOLISST PAUL INTL/WOLDCHAMBERLAIN,MN 20 sm49 minSSW 0310 smClear34°F23°F64%30.18
KCFE BUFFALO MUNI,MN 21 sm27 minW 0510 smClear36°F27°F69%30.18
Link to 5 minute data for KFCM


Wind History from FCM
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