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FXUS63 KMPX 042335 AAA AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 635 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

DISCUSSION
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

Key Messages:

- Clouds eventually depart from west to east this evening, with partly cloudy skies overnight into tomorrow. A few sprinkles or isolated showers are possible in central Minnesota and northern Wisconsin tomorrow afternoon and evening, with a better chance for more widespread rain on Friday.

- Cooler temperatures as we approach the weekend, with highs in the 50s this weekend. We warm up a bit towards the 60s again next week.
Frost looks possible outside of the Twin Cities metro this weekend with lows in the mid 30s.

Discussion... Satellite imagery this afternoon continues to show widespread cloud cover across the majority of the MPX CWA, with clearing very slow to begin over western Minnesota. This clearing is expected to spread eastwards as we progress towards the evening, however it may not be in time to give us any meaningful sunshine before sunset across eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. A few drops could be squeezed out of the low stratus deck in central Minnesota, but we should remain dry across the entire area with no measurable rainfall for the rest of today. Further cloud cover and isolated showers or sprinkles will arrive overnight into early Thursday for central Minnesota, continuing until our next system passes on Friday. A compact trough will slowly sink southwards towards the area, with the axis finally arriving with enhanced mid- level forcing by midday Friday. Right now, the setup would favor the heaviest rain from eastern Minnesota to western Wisconsin as a PV anomaly and falling heights focus on the eastern side of the trough in western Minnesota to western Wisconsin, with good agreement between deterministic models as to where this heavier axis of rainfall ends up. It would also be within the realm of possibility that as we get a bit later into the event towards Friday night into Saturday morning, a few flakes become possible as the surface temperatures cool into the 30s and 40s with cooler temperatures aloft. This would end up non-accumulating as our QPF drops off significantly by 00z Friday.

Cooler temperatures prevail behind this system through the weekend with some recovery towards normal into the middle of next week.
Highs will range in the low to mid 50s Saturday through Monday with lows in the mid 30s outside of the metro to near 40 within the metro area. Highs return to the 60s by midweek with lows in the 40s with lack of significant sensible weather or precipitation after Friday.
There are some hints of another larger system towards the end of next week, however confidence is too low to bring up the form this looks to take for now, just keep it in the back of your mind.

One special note given the time of year, with the cool down this weekend and current fall colors, this weekend likely ends up being the peak for color season in Minnesota and Wisconsin, and it would be a good idea to get your fill of the vibrant colors we are known for before the leaves begin to drop even further!

AVIATION
(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

Band of VFR clouds across eastern MN and western WI will continue east early this evening. Clear skies will follow for several hours before mid level clouds increase again late evening and overnight.
Some showers are possible late across central MN. Light southwest winds will become northwest and increase late Thursday morning with gusts of 30-35 kts possible in the afternoon.

KMSP...Skies are beginning to clear and will be clear by 01Z.
There's a small risk of a couple showers early Thursday, so included a PROB30.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...MVFR with -SHRA likely in the morning. Wind NW 15G25-30kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind light/variable.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.

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