Monday, August26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Spring Park, MN

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Sunrise 6:27AMSunset 8:04PM Monday August 26, 2019 2:39 AM CDT (07:39 UTC) Moonrise 12:46AMMoonset 4:35PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Spring Park, MN
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location: 44.92, -93.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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Fxus63 kmpx 260503
afdmpx
area forecast discussion
national weather service twin cities chanhassen mn
1203 am cdt Mon aug 26 2019

Updated for 06z aviation discussion
Issued at 1159 pm cdt Sun aug 25 2019

Short term (this evening through Monday night)
issued at 245 pm cdt Sun aug 25 2019
forecast concern is overall precipitation timing amounts with
piecemeal trough through Monday evening.

Currently, we have leading short wave trough moving through
western mn generating fairly widespread light showers. Expect this
trend to continue into the evening as it lifts slowly northeast.

Will mention scattered wording for now.

This trough lingers over the northeast CWA into tonight and will
likely hold onto some low end pop for lingering light showers.

Then timing of next main upper trough continues to slow it
eastward progression. Will bring in higher end pops over west
central mn mainly after 06z Mon and then move slowly east to
eastern mn around 12z. Hires solutions continue to bring at least
a line of scattered broken showers thunder ahead of the trough
into central mn. The latest iteration of the hrrr continue to back
off on any real higher end pop overnight and waits really until
near 12z to develop activity to the west. Confidence is low on
that happening at the moment with the href and various
deterministic models still driving the activity into at least
central mn by Monday morning. Thunder threat remains rather low
with little instability noted over southern mn in the more
cloudy showery regime. Will bring chance thunder out west later
tonight mainly after 06z it appears.

The trough moves into eastern mn Monday morning and we should be
able to generate at least widespread showers over the central and
east much of the day. This will limit temperatures to the upper
60s to lower 70s for highs.

Qpf remains similar in overall placement but models continue to
diverge on overall amounts. We came out with a pretty much
widespread 1 to 1.5 inch accumulation for the event across the
northern 2 3rd of the cwa. Still wouldn't be surprised to see
some 2 inch totals where the upper trough deformation remains
longest. Placement on this would be from around willmar st cloud
to little falls area. Another secondary MAX could develop into
west central wi into Monday afternoon as the main trough moves in.

Long term (Tuesday through Sunday)
issued at 245 pm cdt Sun aug 25 2019
well-defined cold front will be situated over the great lakes to
the lower mississippi river valley by daybreak Tuesday morning
with the bulk of the precipitation off to the east. The surface
low over far east-central manitoba province will continue to
slowly slide northeast across hudson bay tue-thu, with a trailing
weak surface trough expected to swing east over northern mn wi tue
into wed. This will result in some scattered weak instability
showers underneath the cold pool Tuesday afternoon. Some of these
showers may produce up to around 0.10" qpf, particularly north of
i-94. The precip looks to end by Tuesday evening then dry
conditions are expected for Wednesday with precipitation remaining
north of the WFO mpx coverage area. In addition to the showers,
breezy conditions can be expected Tuesday into Wednesday with a
tight pressure gradient setting up over the area between the
departing potent low pressure system and incoming high pressure
from the west.

High pressure will then prevail across the north-central conus
from late Wednesday on through the weekend. A weak cold front will
drop through the region late Thursday into Friday, but this will
be a dry front, with dry conditions continuing through next
weekend. Temperatures will generally remain below normal, with
highs around 70 every day except Thursday which will have highs
hit the mid-to-upper 70s in advance of the dry cold front.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night)
issued at 1159 pm cdt Sun aug 25 2019
should see a few MVFR ceilings develop and rain thunder move in
from the west overnight. Later today an area of rain will spread
across the region from the southwest, and should have clouds lower
as well. There is enough instability to mention thunder in the
tafs. Should see ceilings lift from west to east during the
evening as westerly winds increase.

Kmsp...

did push back the timing of MVFR clouds one more hour to 11z since
the guidance seems to be a little to quick based on the current
trends. It still appears like the best chance for thunder will be
during the early afternoon. Should seeVFR conditions return
Monday evening as westerly winds increase.

Outlook for kmsp
tue...VFR with afternoon MVFR -shra possible. Wind W at 20g30 kt.

Wed...VFR with MVFR possible. Wind NW at 15g25 kt.

Thu...VFR. Wind wsw at 10g20 kt.

Mpx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Short term... Dwe
long term... Jpc
aviation... Jrb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Minneapolis - Flying Cloud Airport, MN10 mi2.8 hrsSE 610.00 miOvercast65°F59°F81%1011.9 hPa
Minneapolis, Crystal Airport, MN17 mi2.8 hrsSSE 810.00 miOvercast66°F57°F75%1011.8 hPa
Buffalo, Buffalo Municipal Airport, MN20 mi2 hrsno data10.00 miOvercast65°F56°F75%1011.8 hPa
Minneapolis, Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, MN21 mi2.8 hrsSSE 710.00 miOvercast66°F59°F78%1012.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFCM

Wind History from FCM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE10S10--SE8SE8--SE12
G18
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1 day agoSE5SE7SE7SE8SE8SE8SE7SE9SE8SE12SE12SE13SE14
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2 days ago--NE4NE5NE4NE4--E7SE8E8SE9SE11
G16
E8SE8SE8SE10E8E8E8E6--------SE5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Twin Cities, MN (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Minneapolis, MN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.