Wednesday, August12, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Spring Park, MN

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:12AMSunset 8:26PM Wednesday August 12, 2020 7:07 PM CDT (00:07 UTC) Moonrise 11:49PMMoonset 2:12PM Illumination 34% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Spring Park, MN
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location: 44.92, -93.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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FXUS63 KMPX 122003 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 303 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020

SHORT TERM. (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020

The day began with clusters of showers/thunderstorms over far western MN, ahead of a warm front draped NW-SE over the Dakotas into the Mid-Mississippi River Valley, high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes, and multiple residual outflow boundaries across MN. In addition, rounding the base of a large upper level low over western Canada were several shortwave axes, gradually shifting ESE within a flattening upper level ridge. With PWATs near 1" and surface dewpoints into the mid-60s, a plentifully moist atmosphere was in place for these storms to steadily shift east. As they did and formed into more organized clusters and lines, some put some heavy rain over southwestern and southern MN (in the 2-4") range along with hail up to nickel-sized. Such storms are no longer expected as the precipitation shield has become far enough displaced from the surface front and into a slightly more stable atmosphere. Nevertheless, showers/storms will continue mainly N of I-94 and E of I-35 through this afternoon and evening. As the warm front slowly approaches for tomorrow, isolated/scattered showers are possible through the overnight hours but a drier airmass is expected tomorrow as the area becomes warm-sectored and very likely free from precipitation. As such, PoPs have been lowered for much, if not all, of the WFO MPX coverage area for tomorrow with multiple model solutions indicating no precipitation for tomorrow. There is the caveat that these same models had a very difficult time initializing the precipitation for today but with so many solutions indicating dry conditions for Thursday, have gone with that consensus. Precipitation chances then increase for Friday night as the cold front trailing the warm sector shifts east through the Dakotas and into northwestern MN by daybreak Friday morning. While the heavier of the precipitation is likely beyond this short-term period, a few isolated stronger storms in far western MN are possible around daybreak. Better chances for severe weather on Friday can be expected northwest of the WFO MPX coverage area, into northwestern MN and eastern ND.

With the area being warm-sectored through Friday night, an associated increase in temperatures and humidity can be expected. Lows both tonight and Thursday night will run in the 60s while highs on Thursday climb to the mid-upper 80s. With dewpoints into the lower 70s Thursday, heat index values will climb to the low 90s area- wide (with some portions of far western MN into the mid 90s.)

LONG TERM. (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020

Friday through Friday night looks to be fairly active across the coverage area as both the aforementioned cold front along with a potent upper level trough moves across the region. The front will push across MN on Friday then through WI Friday night, moving into MI on Saturday. With PWATs climbing to 1.25" to 1.50", in conjunction with dewpoints into the lower 70s, a rather unstable atmosphere is expected with virtually no capping to halt convective development. with frontal lifting and the trough aloft, the combination will be there for fairly good coverage of rain/thunderstorms across the area Friday through Friday night, with some storms potentially strong to severe shifting west to east. Bulk shear is expected to hit the 40-50kt range with MLCAPE values around 3000 J/kg, both supportive of strong-severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds.

With the exit of the front on Saturday, a prolonged cooler and drier period is then expected for the first half of next week. Highs will drop back to the 70s with lows back into the 50s, and potentially as low as the upper 40s by the middle of next week.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020

Swath of showers continues to shift east over eastern MN with a few pockets of embedded strong wind gusts and thunderstorms. The heavy rain may knock visibility down to 1-2SM briefly and have ceilings into MVFR range, mainly east of a KMSP-KMKT line. Some MVFR ceilings are possible into far western MN in the wake of the precip, and this may try to translate east but models have had a difficult time initializing this entire convective scenario so confidence is not the greatest in this TAF set. Will gradually see the precip off to the east this afternoon with conditions returning to VFR by this evening. Although there are small chances for precipitation overnight through Thursday morning, low model confidence in timing/location makes it problematic to include precipitation beyond this afternoon. Winds will generally remain SE with sustained speeds 8-15kt with gusts up to 25kt, outside of convection which may produce higher wind speeds.

KMSP . No significant differences in the thinking for MSP in the thinking for convection. Will maintain showery precip to prevail thru this afternoon. There may be the occasional rumble of thunder but chances for TSRA have significantly diminished. Otherwise, KMSP is reporting anomalously high winds at 18z which are much higher than anywhere within the Twin Cities metro. These winds will gradually diminish but may well stay in the 15G30kt area for a few hours.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Fri . Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR/TSRA. Wind SE 10-15 kts. Sat . VFR with MVFR/TSRA possible late. Wind NW 5-10 kts. Sun . VFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MN . None. WI . None.

SHORT TERM . JPC LONG TERM . JPC AVIATION . JPC


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Minneapolis - Flying Cloud Airport, MN10 mi74 minNNE 14 G 2610.00 miOvercast71°F60°F68%1015.5 hPa
Minneapolis, Crystal Airport, MN17 mi74 minESE 10 G 181.00 miThunderstorm Heavy Rain65°F60°F84%1015.4 hPa
Buffalo, Buffalo Municipal Airport, MN20 mi72 minno data10.00 miOvercast65°F62°F91%1016.6 hPa
Minneapolis, Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, MN21 mi74 minNE 15 G 2610.00 miOvercast69°F60°F73%1016.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFCM

Wind History from FCM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6SE7S5S5S6S4S7SE3S4SE5E4E8SE9
G18
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CalmSE10SE22
G28
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G39
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G24
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NE9
1 day agoW5W4SW4W4SW3SW4W5SW3W3W5W5SW4SW7SW75SW76W8SW11
G17
SW5SW8SW11S11S7
2 days agoCalmNE3N11E94N9N21
G38
E7
G21
NW7NW5NW7NW5NW6W6N8N4W5W5W4NW6NW7NW9W4W7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Twin Cities, MN (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Minneapolis, MN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.