Marine Weather and Tides
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
|Sunrise 6:12AM||Sunset 8:26PM||Wednesday August 12, 2020 7:07 PM CDT (00:07 UTC)||Moonrise 11:49PM||Moonset 2:12PM||Illumination 34%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Spring Park, MNHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KMPX 122003 AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 303 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020
SHORT TERM. (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020
The day began with clusters of showers/thunderstorms over far western MN, ahead of a warm front draped NW-SE over the Dakotas into the Mid-Mississippi River Valley, high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes, and multiple residual outflow boundaries across MN. In addition, rounding the base of a large upper level low over western Canada were several shortwave axes, gradually shifting ESE within a flattening upper level ridge. With PWATs near 1" and surface dewpoints into the mid-60s, a plentifully moist atmosphere was in place for these storms to steadily shift east. As they did and formed into more organized clusters and lines, some put some heavy rain over southwestern and southern MN (in the 2-4") range along with hail up to nickel-sized. Such storms are no longer expected as the precipitation shield has become far enough displaced from the surface front and into a slightly more stable atmosphere. Nevertheless, showers/storms will continue mainly N of I-94 and E of I-35 through this afternoon and evening. As the warm front slowly approaches for tomorrow, isolated/scattered showers are possible through the overnight hours but a drier airmass is expected tomorrow as the area becomes warm-sectored and very likely free from precipitation. As such, PoPs have been lowered for much, if not all, of the WFO MPX coverage area for tomorrow with multiple model solutions indicating no precipitation for tomorrow. There is the caveat that these same models had a very difficult time initializing the precipitation for today but with so many solutions indicating dry conditions for Thursday, have gone with that consensus. Precipitation chances then increase for Friday night as the cold front trailing the warm sector shifts east through the Dakotas and into northwestern MN by daybreak Friday morning. While the heavier of the precipitation is likely beyond this short-term period, a few isolated stronger storms in far western MN are possible around daybreak. Better chances for severe weather on Friday can be expected northwest of the WFO MPX coverage area, into northwestern MN and eastern ND.
With the area being warm-sectored through Friday night, an associated increase in temperatures and humidity can be expected. Lows both tonight and Thursday night will run in the 60s while highs on Thursday climb to the mid-upper 80s. With dewpoints into the lower 70s Thursday, heat index values will climb to the low 90s area- wide (with some portions of far western MN into the mid 90s.)
LONG TERM. (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020
Friday through Friday night looks to be fairly active across the coverage area as both the aforementioned cold front along with a potent upper level trough moves across the region. The front will push across MN on Friday then through WI Friday night, moving into MI on Saturday. With PWATs climbing to 1.25" to 1.50", in conjunction with dewpoints into the lower 70s, a rather unstable atmosphere is expected with virtually no capping to halt convective development. with frontal lifting and the trough aloft, the combination will be there for fairly good coverage of rain/thunderstorms across the area Friday through Friday night, with some storms potentially strong to severe shifting west to east. Bulk shear is expected to hit the 40-50kt range with MLCAPE values around 3000 J/kg, both supportive of strong-severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds.
With the exit of the front on Saturday, a prolonged cooler and drier period is then expected for the first half of next week. Highs will drop back to the 70s with lows back into the 50s, and potentially as low as the upper 40s by the middle of next week.
AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020
Swath of showers continues to shift east over eastern MN with a few pockets of embedded strong wind gusts and thunderstorms. The heavy rain may knock visibility down to 1-2SM briefly and have ceilings into MVFR range, mainly east of a KMSP-KMKT line. Some MVFR ceilings are possible into far western MN in the wake of the precip, and this may try to translate east but models have had a difficult time initializing this entire convective scenario so confidence is not the greatest in this TAF set. Will gradually see the precip off to the east this afternoon with conditions returning to VFR by this evening. Although there are small chances for precipitation overnight through Thursday morning, low model confidence in timing/location makes it problematic to include precipitation beyond this afternoon. Winds will generally remain SE with sustained speeds 8-15kt with gusts up to 25kt, outside of convection which may produce higher wind speeds.
KMSP . No significant differences in the thinking for MSP in the thinking for convection. Will maintain showery precip to prevail thru this afternoon. There may be the occasional rumble of thunder but chances for TSRA have significantly diminished. Otherwise, KMSP is reporting anomalously high winds at 18z which are much higher than anywhere within the Twin Cities metro. These winds will gradually diminish but may well stay in the 15G30kt area for a few hours.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Fri . Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR/TSRA. Wind SE 10-15 kts. Sat . VFR with MVFR/TSRA possible late. Wind NW 5-10 kts. Sun . VFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MN . None. WI . None.
SHORT TERM . JPC LONG TERM . JPC AVIATION . JPC
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Airport ReportsEDIT (on/off)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
|Minneapolis - Flying Cloud Airport, MN||10 mi||74 min||NNE 14 G 26||10.00 mi||Overcast||71°F||60°F||68%||1015.5 hPa|
|Minneapolis, Crystal Airport, MN||17 mi||74 min||ESE 10 G 18||1.00 mi||Thunderstorm Heavy Rain||65°F||60°F||84%||1015.4 hPa|
|Buffalo, Buffalo Municipal Airport, MN||20 mi||72 min||no data||10.00 mi||Overcast||65°F||62°F||91%||1016.6 hPa|
|Minneapolis, Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, MN||21 mi||74 min||NE 15 G 26||10.00 mi||Overcast||69°F||60°F||73%||1016.2 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KFCM
Wind History from FCM (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||W||W||SW||W||SW||SW||W||SW||W||W||W||SW||SW||SW||SW||W||SW|
|2 days ago||Calm||NE||N||E||N||N|
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Twin Cities, MN (20,4,5,8)(on/off)  Help
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