Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lincoln City, OR

SHORT TERM
Now through Monday night...The short term forecast is highlighted by near normal to slightly below normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions aside from Sunday which features a chance of rain showers for most locations. Satellite observations from 1-2 PM Saturday depicted mostly clear skies across much of northwest OR and southwest WA, aside from an area of broken cloud cover in the Oregon Cascades and adjacent foothills to the south of a line extending from Mill City to Detroit to Mt. Jefferson. Broken clouds were also being observed on the WA coast and north OR coast to the north of Lincoln City. This trend will continue through tonight, aside from the OR Cascades where cloud cover should temporarily scatter out this evening before redeveloping late tonight.

Cloud cover will begin increasing across all of southwest WA and most of northwest OR late tonight into tomorrow as a weak upper level shortwave trough moves over the area with increasing mid-level moisture between 950-800 mb. Forecast soundings for various points over the Willamette Valley suggest there will be enough moisture to support rain showers producing measurable rain at the surface. With a dry stable layer above 700 mb, convection will be shallow. The NAM suggests equilibrium levels will extend up to only -5 to -10 degrees Celsius, which means mixed-phased clouds capable of charge separation will be tough to come by aside from only the strongest cell updrafts. In other words, do not expect any lightning and/or hail with the showery activity on Sunday, aside from one or two isolated cells that may overperform and produce brief small hail under the size of peas and a flash or two of lightning. NBM thunder probabilities are under 15% and HRRR probabilities are under 10%, which seems reasonable given the setup described above. Note these probabilities are not high enough to warrant a mention of thunderstorms in the forecast, despite the isolated threat. It's also worth mentioning very little to no showery activity is expected in Lane County, aside from the Cascades. Showers will be most frequent over southwest WA and locations to the north of a line extending from Newport to Salem.

Conditions dry out Sunday night into Monday under northwest flow.
Areas of cloud cover Sunday night and Monday morning should give way to decreasing clouds Monday afternoon through Monday night. This will set the stage for radiational cooling Monday night given the calm winds and high pressure in place. As such, this night looks to be the coldest night of the week. The deterministic NBM suggests widespread lows in the upper 30s, except mid 30s in the southern Willamette Valley, Cascade foothills and Upper Hood River Valley. These colder zones will see potential frost, and the Parkdale area could see sub-freezing temperatures around 30 degrees. Targeted frost advisories may be warranted with future forecast updates once confidence increases in the exact low temperature forecast. For now, probabilities for low temps of 35 degrees or colder (which would be ideal for frost) range between 5-15% in the Portland/Vancouver metro, aside from 50% in Battle Ground and 25% in Hillsboro. Probabilities range between 20-40% over the central Willamette Valley and 40-60% for the southern Willamette Valley. The Upper Hood River Valley has a 80-90% chance from Odell to Parkdale. -TK

LONG TERM
Tuesday through Friday night...The long term forecast is highlighted by warmer and drier weather with plenty of sunshine, aside from Friday when conditions turn cooler and cloudier with increasing chances for rain showers. Prior to the potential frontal system on Friday, models and their ensembles are in good agreement each day will be warmer than the previous day from Tuesday through Thursday. This is in response to an upper level ridge that will be moving over the Pacific Northwest at that time. Model spread for high temperatures is low, generally 10 degrees or less, suggesting confidence is high in the temperature forecast. Expect widespread highs well into the 60s to lower 70s on both Wednesday and Thursday, except upper 50s to lower 60s at the coast. Cannot rule out highs upwards of 75 to 80 degrees for the Willamette Valley and Portland/Vancouver metro (5-15% chance Wednesday and a 10-30% chance Thursday).

After a few warm and dry days, cloud cover will begin to increase Thursday night into Friday in response to an incoming Pacific frontal system. Although there are a few ensemble members from the GEPS/ENS that are dry on Friday, the vast majority are not. No members are dry in the GEFS ensemble. The main differences lie with the exact timing of precip and when it will move into the area. This is why NBM 6-hr PoPs on Friday only peak between 40-60% while 24-hr PoPs are near 70-80%. In other words, at least some rain in likely on Friday, however the exact timing is uncertain. The probability for 0.25 inches of rain or more falling between 5am Friday and 5am Saturday ranges between 25-50%, with the highest probabilities in the Cascades. -TK

AVIATION
Northwest flow aloft will continue today as a front continues to move east of the Cascades. A few areas of MVFR cigs lingering this morning will lift this afternoon, with predominately VFR conditions expected through this evening.
Northwest winds along the coast increase this afternoon with gusts up to 20-25 kt. Another weak front pushes inland later tonight into Sunday morning, with increasing clouds and chances for rain showers, mainly north of KSLE. CIGs likely to drop back into MVFR along the north Oregon coast after 06z Sunday, while inland locations are more likely to see a mix of VFR and MVFR conditions after 12Z Sunday, with about a 30-60% chance of MVFR CIGs , highest near KPDX and KTTD.

PDX AND APPROACHES...Predominately VFR conditions expected through tonight. Lingering shallow MVFR clouds near KTTD through 20z today. CIGs lower again after 12z Sunday with a chance of rain showers through Sunday morning. Northwest winds expected around 6-10 kt today. /DH

MARINE
Strong high pressure offshore will maintain northerly winds across the coastal waters through the weekend. A weak surface front is moving across the waters this morning. Northerly winds with gusts 20-25 kts will peak this morning with gusts up to 25-30 kt. Additionally, will build to 8 to 10 ft at 10 seconds this morning, continuing through the evening. Will maintain the Small Craft Advisory through Saturday evening. Winds decrease tonight with gusts below 20 kts as do waves to 5 to 8 ft at 10 to 11 seconds.

Another weak front moves across the waters on Sunday night.
Northerly winds increase slightly with occasional gusts 20-25 kts, though not widespread enough to consider a Small Craft Advisory at this time. Waves will also increase slightly to 8 to 10 feet at 10 seconds Sunday night and early Monday morning. By late Monday, the thermal trough strengthens over the southern Oregon coast, increasing the northerly pressure gradients again for early next week. Northerly winds off the central Oregon coast could increase to gusts of 20-25 kts. Seas are expected to persist around 6 to 7 ft at 10-13 seconds. -DH/HEC

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ251>253-271>273.