Saturday, August8, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Shorewood, MN

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:07AMSunset 8:32PM Saturday August 8, 2020 6:29 AM CDT (11:29 UTC) Moonrise 10:09PMMoonset 10:03AM Illumination 80% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shorewood, MN
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location: 44.94, -93.55     debug


Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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FXUS63 KMPX 080800 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 300 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020

SHORT TERM. (Today through Sunday Night) Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020

A potentially active weekend in terms of weather is on the horizon. The chance for strong storms exists right out of the gate this morning, as storms over northeast MN and northern WI shift into the west central WI portion of the forecast area. This activity could flare a bit after sunrise this morning as daytime heating ensues. The primary threat would be damaging winds. Given modest lapse rates around 7 C/km, large hail can't be ruled out, but is a slightly lesser threat.

By mid to late morning we should see a break in any thunderstorm activity as we await the next round. Heat and humidity will build in the warm sector ahead of the front. Have increased temperatures into the mid to upper 80s across most of the area (slightly "cooler" in WI with low to mid 80s). Dewpoints will be pushing 75 degrees, which will mean heat indices will flirt with mid 90s. Given my forecast temps and dewpoints are near the higher end of numerical guidance, and considering the potential for clouds/convection to hinder heating a tad, will not issue a Heat Advisory, but highlight the threat in the HWO/graphical products. It will certainly be an uncomfortable afternoon for anyone active outside given the relatively light winds combined with the heat & humidity, as illustrated by WBGT (Wet Bulb Globe Temperature) values nearing 85 degrees this afternoon.

The August-like humidity will also be revealed in progged MLCAPEs circa 4000 J/kg from southwest into central Minnesota this afternoon. H7-H5 lapse rates are also forecast to be around 8.5-9 C/km. Therefore, if we can get any convection to pop, strong to severe storms will be a decent possibility. The one big limiting factor will be warm H7 temps of +13C to +14C. Therefore, any afternoon activity would likely be isolated in nature, so a 20 POP seems sufficient for now.

Tonight we expect to see a mid-level shortwave pass across the area, which will act to override any capping aloft and bring more widespread activity. Given the stalled boundary bisecting the area, precipitable water values around 2 inches, and forcing supplied by the shortwave, heavy rainfall is expected. Exactly where that sets up is still of low confidence, but as of now west central MN looks to have the greatest risk on the cool side of the boundary. Given antecedent soil conditions, thirsty crops, etc., think this area can withstand a fairly heavy bout of rainfall before we see much in the way of impacts, so will hold off on any flash flood headlines at this point.

Showers and thunderstorms spread east across the area on Sunday attendant with the frontal passage. Steep lapse rates and low- level shear look sufficient to bring a threat for damaging winds. Sunday night differential divergence associated with the entrance region of the upper level jet streak over northwest Ontario supplies renewed forcing for showers and thunderstorms through Sunday night.

LONG TERM. (Monday through Friday) Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020

The long term period will start off cooler and drier before transitioning to a more typical August pattern.

At the start of the period the cold front will have exited the CWA to the southeast and surface high pressure will move in behind it. High temperatures on Monday will be in the upper 70s with a few 80s possible. Drier air behind the cold front will drop the dewpoints back into the comfortable 50s where they will remain through Tuesday. Tuesday will be a few degrees warmer than Monday, but with relatively lower dewpoints should still feel reasonably comfortable.

On Wednesday high pressure moves off to the east and warmer, more humid air starts to return to the area. Highs temperatures through the rest of the period will be seasonable in the low to mid 80s, and overnight lows mainly in the 60s. The weather should also become more active with shortwave energy bringing periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms through the rest of the long term. There is not much timing on the details of when and where any precipitation will occur, so will stick with the low PoPs from Wednesday on that were given by the NBM.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020

Little to no precipitation has developed south of the thunderstorm complex across north-central Minnesota, so the threat for thunder tonight looks low at area terminals. Scattered rain showers still may develop overnight through tomorrow morning with an isolated lightning strike possible with the strongest cells, but overall impacts look minor. Ceilings will drop to MVFR overnight and likely remain there through the morning, with improvement to VFR expected during the afternoon. ANother round of thunderstorms is possible towards the end of the period, especially across western Minnesota, but confidence remains low in the timing at this point.

KMSP . A few rain showers are possible towards sunrise, with perhaps an isolated rumble of thunder with the strongest cells. MVFR ceilings look likely by 09-10Z with improvement not expected until at least early afternoon. There is an outside shot at ceilings approaching IFR early this morning, but the lowest ceilings will likely remain down in the river valleys.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Sun . VFR. Chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind S 10-15 kts. Mon . VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MN . None. WI . None.

SHORT TERM . LS LONG TERM . CEO AVIATION . ETA


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Minneapolis - Flying Cloud Airport, MN8 mi36 minS 810.00 miMostly Cloudy74°F69°F85%1011.8 hPa
Minneapolis, Crystal Airport, MN13 mi36 minS 710.00 miMostly Cloudy75°F69°F82%1011.3 hPa
Minneapolis, Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, MN18 mi36 minS 810.00 miMostly Cloudy74°F70°F88%1012.2 hPa
South St. Paul Municipal-Richard E. Flemi, MN22 mi34 minS 510.00 miPartly Cloudy74°F68°F84%1012.9 hPa
Buffalo, Buffalo Municipal Airport, MN22 mi34 minno data10.00 miOvercast73°F68°F86%1012.5 hPa
Minneapolis / Blaine, MN23 mi34 minS 510.00 miMostly Cloudy75°F69°F83%1012.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFCM

Wind History from FCM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE8S8S8S7S11SE12S11
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1 day agoSE4SE6SE7SE8S12SE11
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2 days agoCalmS3SW5S5S8SW7W6S8S8
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Twin Cities, MN (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Minneapolis, MN
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.