Saturday, August17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Shorewood, MN

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:16AMSunset 8:19PM Saturday August 17, 2019 11:51 AM CDT (16:51 UTC) Moonrise 8:41PMMoonset 7:10AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shorewood, MN
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location: 44.94, -93.55     debug


Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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Fxus63 kmpx 171514
afdmpx
area forecast discussion
national weather service twin cities chanhassen mn
1014 am cdt Sat aug 17 2019

Update
Issued at 1014 am cdt Sat aug 17 2019
main change we've been making to the forecast for tonight is to
slow some the arrival of higher pops out west this evening, but
then once things get here, we've really sped up the eastward
progression of pops tonight into Sunday morning. As this system
takes on a negative tilt and we start entraining some dry air in
from the west, we should really see storms accelerate across our
area overnight. Main change we've seen with the 12z guidance
coming in is that they are generating less convection to our south
tonight. This will allow for better storm coverage up here.

Current SPC day 1 convective outlook still looks good. Given
instability and mid-level lapse rates, some large hail is
possible, but given the expected forward speed of the line along
with the development of strong cold pools, strong winds look to be
our biggest severe threat.

Short term (today through Sunday)
issued at 325 am cdt Sat aug 17 2019
the main concern in the short term is the chance for severe
thunderstorms tonight, the threat for which has increased
particularly across southern and western minnesota. Strong
downburst winds, large hail, and even isolated tornadoes will be
possible.

As of early this morning, a large trough was moving slowly east
across the western half of canada and is expected to deepen as the
day progresses. We'll spend the day in the warm sector well to
the east of the cold front that currently extends from manitoba
southward into north dakota. While this is the main feature of
concern, a shortwave trough will develop and intensify later this
afternoon to the south of the main upper trough. This feature will
move nearly due east to the north of the south dakota nebraska
border, and reach southwest mn this evening. So, two features to
keep our eyes on today and tonight as they approach, with the
southern shortwave arriving a few hours ahead of the main cold
front. The models are in good agreement that the main upper low to
the north will include an intensifying embedded shortwave rotating
through north dakota toward mn tonight, leading to the entire
system becoming negatively tilted and stronger than previously
expected. SPC increased the threat to a slight risk across much of
southern mn and an enhanced risk across southwest mn.

Temperatures will rise into the 80s and dew points will generally
be in the lower 60s locally. Southerly winds will increase this
afternoon ahead of the aforementioned cold front. This will lead
to MLCAPE values generally between 1500-2000 j kg and combined
with deep layer shear around 35-40 knots, strong and severe
thunderstorms are possible. The initial shortwave may set off
scattered thunderstorms across the southern third of mn by
evening. Meanwhile, storms should fire along the cold front
across the dakotas this afternoon, likely growing upscale into
line segments. Strong cold pool development along these line
segments looks more likely, which would lead to an increased wind
threat as the line segments move from west to east across southern
mn, including the metro, late tonight and through the overnight
hours.

Once the cold front exits to the east mainly by tomorrow mid
morning, a few scattered showers may linger for a few hours, but
overall a drying and clearing trend is expected. Highs on Sunday
will be a little cooler behind the front, with mid to upper 70s
expected and dewpoints falling into the 50s for most by late
afternoon.

Long term (Sunday night through Friday)
issued at 325 am cdt Sat aug 17 2019
overall the long term period will be fairly quiet. Monday night
still is our best chance at thunderstorms in this period, but
there is quite a bit of uncertainty at play.

By Sunday night, the main upper low will have moved east toward
hudson bay with the negative tilt to the south now extending
southeast toward the eastern great lakes. The upper low will
become quasi-stationary to begin next week over hudson bay with
deep zonal flow expected locally. This means temperatures will
rebound and should have no problem reaching the low to mid 80s
Monday and Tuesday. A subtle shortwave is still expected to
develop to our west as a ridge becomes more defined over the high
plains. The path and strength of this shortwave is still
uncertain, so continued with a blended approach for pops which
yields about a 30% chance for storms Monday night.

An upper ridge will develop across western canada in response to
another strong upper low approaching the western canadian coast
by Tuesday. The hudson bay upper low will dive southeast and send
yet another cold front south through the northern plains Tuesday
night, leading to a slight cool down for Wednesday and Thursday as
canadian high pressure settles in. Temperatures and dew points
look to be on the rise again though on Friday as the upper ridge
to our west begins encroaching on the local area as main upper low
continues pushing east.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Sunday morning)
issued at 645 am cdt Sat aug 17 2019
vfr conditions today with southerly winds. Confidence has
increased in the potential for a line of storms moving through
overnight. The main threat with these storms would be strong
winds, so have introduced higher gusts in the prob30 group. A cold
front will follow the storms and bring northwest winds along with
MVFR ifr clouds.

Kmsp...

vfr conditions today with southerly winds. Confidence has
increased in the potential for a line of storms moving through
overnight. As of now it appears that the storms will move in after
06z. The main threat with these storms would be strong winds, so
have introduced higher gusts in the prob30 group. A cold front
will follow the storms and bring northwest winds along with MVFR
clouds.

Outlook for kmsp
sun...VFR with MVFR possible early. Wind NW 5-10 kts.

Mon...VFR. Slight chc -tsra MVFR late. Wind S 10-15 kts.

Tue...VFR. Slight chc -tsra MVFR early. Wind S 5 kts.

Mpx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Update... Mpg
short term... Spd
long term... Spd
aviation... Jrb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Minneapolis - Flying Cloud Airport, MN8 mi2 hrsSW 510.00 miFair71°F61°F71%1010.5 hPa
Minneapolis, Crystal Airport, MN13 mi2 hrsS 11 G 1710.00 miPartly Cloudy74°F57°F57%1009.9 hPa
Minneapolis, Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, MN18 mi2 hrsSW 1010.00 miPartly Cloudy74°F59°F60%1010.5 hPa
South St. Paul Municipal-Richard E. Flemi, MN22 mi76 minS 510.00 miFair74°F58°F60%1011.2 hPa
Buffalo, Buffalo Municipal Airport, MN22 mi77 minno data10.00 miFair73°F59°F63%1011.2 hPa
Minneapolis / Blaine, MN23 mi3.1 hrsS 610.00 miA Few Clouds72°F60°F69%1011.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFCM

Wind History from FCM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW10NW9W6
G14
--W8--W6SW8--SW5SW3------SW6SW3--S3S6SW4--S4SW5S9
1 day agoS5W5SW6S8S8S6--S7--S7--S7S6S7------SW7SW8------W7W7
2 days agoN5E5Calm4E4NE65NE3NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm5S4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Twin Cities, MN (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Minneapolis, MN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.