Monday, June21, 2021
Privacy Policy
L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tides
Maple City, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:56AMSunset 9:25PM Monday June 21, 2021 2:08 AM EDT (06:08 UTC) Moonrise 5:06PMMoonset 2:31AM Illumination 85% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LMZ344 Sleeping Bear Point To Grand Traverse Light Mi- 1007 Pm Edt Sun Jun 20 2021
.gale warning in effect from 8 am edt Monday through Monday afternoon...
Overnight..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots becoming south after midnight, then becoming west 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots early in the morning. Rain showers likely after midnight. Chance of Thunderstorms through the night. Rain showers after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less building to 2 to 3 feet after midnight.
Monday..Northwest wind up to 30 knots with gusts to around 40 knots. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 6 to 9 feet.
Monday night..Northwest wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ344 Expires:202106211015;;596582 FZUS53 KAPX 210207 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1007 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ344-211015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Maple City, MI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 44.95, -85.84     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KAPX 210347 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1147 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021

UPDATE. Issued at 949 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021

998mb low pressure is deepening in w central WI. This low will deepen reasonably quickly (by late June standards) as it moves ne, crossing eastern upper MI overnight. An e-w boundary continues to hang out over the southern lakes, now reinforced by areas of deep convection and associated outflow. Instability continues to be nonexistent north of a GRR-FNT line. However, there is a gap behind the small MCS in far southern lower MI. A little bit of MuCape should be able to venture northward, perhaps reaching 500j/kg on the high end, after 2 am. This is in a highly sheared environment, perhaps enough for some supercellular structures and an associated marginal hail threat in the south. But in general, looks like actual svr wx will be hard to come by.

Does continue to look like northern lower MI will see a relative minimum in rainfall compared to the broader region, with deep convection more prevalent to our south, and widespread deformation rain to our nw.

Transition to a raw, cool, windy, damp, and not-at-all summery Monday will get going overnight. Bumped up post-frontal winds in eastern upper MI Monday morning, thanks in part to input from MQT.

NEAR TERM. (Through Tonight) Issued at 319 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021

. Some needed rainfall possible tonight .

High Impact Weather Potential: Strong thunderstorms are possible later this evening and overnight. Gusty northwest winds with gales/high swim risk on Monday.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Convoluted pattern upstream with a stronger short-wave trough and sfc low digging into Ontario and sfc boundary arcing down through the Northern Plains and back up into western Ontario. A couple of smaller scale waves noted within the larger scale flow; Lead wave is moving northeastward into SW Wisconsin with an associated area of showers. Another impulse and surface low is moving through central Minnesota with a larger area of deformation showers across northern Minnesota and additional showers/storms further south along a boundary that extends into the central Plains. Warm front extends eastward through the lower lakes. Bulk of instability is along and south of that boundary from far southern Lower Michigan down through the Ohio Valley.

Precip chances come in two rounds tonight. Lead short-wave moving into SW Wisconsin will advance rather quickly northeastward up into northern Michigan over the next several hours, driving round number one of showers up through the region through early-mid evening or so. As mentioned above, bulk of instability is contained through the lower lakes into the Ohio Valley, and expected to remain that way with this fist round of showers (Have to go down into central Illinois to find and lightning at the moment). Thus, I'm still not anticipating any thunder through early-mid evening.

Things will ramp up later this evening into the overnight hours however, as the Northern Plains wave digs into and through the western Great Lakes. Respectable (by summer standards) sfc low pressure is expected to begin deepening over Wisconsin and advance up through northern Michigan during the overnight hours driving the second round of precip through the region. As this unfolds, deeper moisture/instability plume will get shoved into northern Michigan ahead of the sfc low/front, bringing our opportunities for thunderstorms.

Severe weather potential. None through early-mid evening. MUCAPE values increase to around 1K J/Kg tonight ahead of the low. Not the best time of day for severe weather possibilities. But with 0-3 Km/0-6 Km bulk shear values both in excess of 45 knots . to near 55 knots by late overnight . organized storms will be a good possibility leading to a hail and gusty wind threat. Again, not the best time of day for severe weather. But strong shear profiles/organized updrafts might produced large hail and maybe a lower end severe wind threat.

SHORT TERM. (Monday through Wednesday) Issued at 319 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021

. A Pronounced Cooling and Breezy .

High Impact Weather Potential . Beach Hazards.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast and possible impacts . Monday, we begin to aggressively cool as the system moves out of the region. As usual, we are in on some of the wrap around moisture. All of the models have it from 12z to 18z, with various ending times, but it looks like the rain is done by 21z/Mon. One thing of note is the temperatures look to fall dramatically through the day. The 850 mb temperatures fall to around 0c by 00z/Tue. Guidance from the raw and MOS models is struggling to get to 60 in Gaylord. Around 70F near the Lake Huron Shore. The cooling of the air over the lakes (with water temperatures between 10C and 15C, we will get some lake clouds, and perhaps some sprinkles. With the CAA, there is also winds, and with the NW flow there will be a high risk of rip tides and currents that will cause issues in the Great Lakes. Monday night the 850 mb temperatures begin to warm slowly as the return flow begins to move into the region. Tuesday, a 500 mb shortwave trough drops into the region and produces some showers, mainly in the UP, and then clears out overnight. The GFS is still showing some MCS by 12z/Wed, but it is further south, and much less pronounced than the last few days. Wednesday may have isolated showers that linger into the afternoon and clear out in the evening. Temperatures should be on a rebound.

LONG TERM. (Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 319 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021

High Impact Weather Potential . Minimal for now.

Extended (Wednesday night through Sunday) . Wednesday night looks dry as high pressure continues to hang on before the next front moves into the region. Thursday, the timing between the models looks better today with the rain getting into the forecast area, during the afternoon. The models are trending down in the precipitation amounts, but it looks to be widespread. Again will play it down with the drought pattern. Friday, continues the rain on both models, which if this is the case, could bring some relief, but feel that the models are over done. The GFS on today's run is a little faster than the ECMWF with the rain ending. Saturday looks like it could be dry, as we are between systems. Still not confident with the models with this pattern. Sunday, A 500 mb cut off low looks to drop into the Upper Great Lakes providing more widespread rain. Both the GFS and ECMWF have this, but as stated before, I'll believe this solution, if we get some sort of breaking in the pattern.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) Issued at 1147 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021

SHRA/TSRA tonight. Low-end MVFR to IFR cigs very late tonight/Mon morning.

An initial round of -SHRA is crossing northern lower MI, falling out of a mid-cloud deck. Still VFR. Another round of more substantial precip will develop over parts of northern Lake MI and northern lower MI. This will bring additional SHRA and perhaps TSRA overnight. Cigs/vsbys will potentially lower with this activity, and though vsbys will recover cigs won't. Low-end MVFR to IFR cigs are expected by, and shortly after, sunrise. Only gradual improvement to VFR is expected Monday.

Light southerly winds tonight. Winds veer w and nw, and become quite gusty on Monday.

MARINE. Issued at 319 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021

Deepening surface low will track up through northern Michigan and into Canada tonight. Behind the system, winds turn NW and become gusty for Monday into Monday evening. Gale force gusts are a good bet for a good portion of the northern Michigan nearshore areas, and going gale warnings will continue, and a few more marine zones will added with the afternoon forecast.

Winds diminish later Monday night. Some gustiness will persist, although winds/waves should be largely below headline criteria.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT from 8 AM EDT Monday through Monday afternoon for MIZ016-020-021-025-031-098-099. BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT from 10 AM EDT Monday through Monday evening for MIZ017-018. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 3 AM EDT Tuesday for LHZ349. GALE WARNING from 10 AM to 10 PM EDT Monday for LHZ347-348. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 5 AM Monday to midnight EDT Monday night for LHZ346. GALE WARNING from 8 AM to 6 PM EDT Monday for LHZ345. LM . GALE WARNING from 8 AM to 6 PM EDT Monday for LMZ323-342-344-345. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 PM EDT Monday for LMZ341-346. LS . GALE WARNING from 8 AM to 8 PM EDT Monday for LSZ321-322.

UPDATE . JZ NEAR TERM . BA SHORT TERM . JL LONG TERM . JL AVIATION . JZ MARINE . BA


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45183 2 mi38 min SE 3.9 G 3.9 64°F 62°F
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 24 mi28 min ESE 2.9 G 7 63°F 997 hPa
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 55 mi28 min SSW 2.9 G 5.1 66°F 997 hPa
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 63 mi28 min SE 14 G 18 61°F

Wind History for Port Inland, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
Last
24hr
NW4
W3
W4
N1
N2
NE4
N2
SE4
SE7
SE4
E6
S2
SE5
E6
E8
SE8
S2
G5
S2
NE3
E5
E5
N2
NE4
E4
1 day
ago
NW6
W6
G9
W4
W3
SW2
W4
W7
NW6
G10
N5
G9
NW7
G11
N6
G11
NW10
G16
W11
G17
W12
W10
G14
W8
G12
W7
G12
N9
G16
NW7
NW7
G13
N3
SW2
W3
NW5
2 days
ago
S4
G7
SW3
G7
SW6
G9
S10
S6
S13
S7
G10
S11
S11
S11
S11
S8
G11
W12
G17
W10
G21
W17
G22
W11
G16
W8
G12
NW8
G12
W5
G8
W6
W5
G9

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherry Capital Airport, MI21 mi75 minN 06.00 miFog/Mist66°F64°F93%996.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTVC

Wind History from TVC (wind in knots)
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS43W11
G18
SW9W13
G17
NE9
G14
NE10NE7N6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4
1 day agoN3N7E3CalmCalmS4CalmNE4N5N7NW4NE8N9NE9NE11NE10N9N7NE6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoS9
G21
SW4S3CalmE5SW9SW10W10
G18
W13
G19
SW12W11
G18
6W16
G22
W19
G26
NW14
G26
NW15
G22
NW9W8SW5S4SW4S5CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
       (on/off)   Help Weather Map
wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station




Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE.