Monday, November30, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Maple City, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:50AMSunset 5:05PM Monday November 30, 2020 11:39 PM EST (04:39 UTC) Moonrise 5:23PMMoonset 8:10AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ344 Sleeping Bear Point To Grand Traverse Light Mi- Point Betsie To Sleeping Bear Point Mi- 931 Pm Est Mon Nov 30 2020
.gale warning in effect through late Tuesday night...
Overnight..North wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 35 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Tuesday..North wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 35 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 5 to 8 feet.
Tuesday night..North wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 35 knots. Clear. Waves 5 to 8 feet.
Wednesday..Northwest wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Sunny. Waves 4 to 6 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ344 Expires:202012011045;;652595 FZUS53 KAPX 010231 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 931 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ344-345-011045-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Maple City, MI
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location: 44.95, -85.84     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 010238 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 938 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

UPDATE. Issued at 937 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

Complex area of low pressure continues to ride northward thru the far NE US late this evening. Northerly flow and sufficiently cold air on the backside of this system produced scattered light lake effect snow showers . which have all but ended at this hour in response to overall warming and drying at low levels as the strong surface ridge axis pushes into the far Western Great Lakes. Plenty of lake clouds remain with a few flurries lingering for our northerly flow areas. Additional low clouds blanket much of our eastern CWA along the far western edge of the moisture shield associated with the low to our east. Near term models still suggest small chances of light snow will develop across far NE Lower Michigan late tonight as the western edge of the deep moisture tries to skirt this area. Any snow that does develop will be light with little to no accumulation expected thru morning. Cold temps will persist overnight . with lows in the 20s.

NEAR TERM. (Through Tuesday) Issued at 338 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

High impact weather potential: Accumulating snow and gusty winds across northeast lower Tuesday.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: Vertically stacked low pressure system drifting into the eastern Great Lakes with broad precipitation area with embedded vorticity lobes pinwheeling around the parent low. One of these shortwaves/speedmax axis will wrap into the far eastern parts of the area on Tuesday with increasing upper level divergence coinciding with slug of deeper moisture.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Snow amounts across northeast lower during the day Tuesday.

Tonight . Light lake effect activity will continue in north flow areas, mainly the Grand Traverse Bay region and points westward. Shallow moisture below the DGZ, only reaching the -8c to -10C isotherm. So mainly flurries or some light snow showers with minimal accumulations. Although not likely especially given the anemic surface based moisture, can't completely rule out some patchy freezing drizzle given the overall moisture extent largely below the -10C isotherm. Along the Lake Huron coast, we will continue to be on the western fringe of the deeper moisture plume associated with the parent low pressure area over the eastern lakes. As the night progresses, top down saturation may be sufficient to eliminate the mid level dry wedge and produce light snow from Harrisville and points southward along the coast. Will bring some higher POPs into this area late with minor accumulations possible.

Tuesday . All attention focuses on how far westward the main snow area will push on the backside of the parent low to our east. It looks as if the arrival of additional shortwave energy pinwheeling around the main upper feature, in addition to developing upper divergence with a 200mb speed max, may be enough to bring the snow area into the Lake Huron coastal counties. This is by no means a definite and there continue to be varying model solutions showing everything from more significant snow along the coast to the snow mainly missing the entire area. And only a 20-30 mile difference could have sizable impacts on the forecast. The majority of available guidance including the Hi-Res shorter term models, show the snow area retrograding into far northeast lower during the day on Tuesday. Snowfall rates could be enhanced by the development of better upper level kinematics, as well as a hint of a developing west-east oriented mid level f-gen signal which could pivot into coastal areas.

Despite confidence in at least some snow development, there remains sizable uncertainties. These primarily revolve around inland extent of snowfall and the level of lake enhancement across northeast lower. Forecast soundings continue to show deep saturation along the Lake Huron shoreline throughout much of the day Tuesday in the presence of a ~4 kft deep DGZ, which should promote more efficient snowfall, assuming the near-surface layer remains saturated. However, the best forcing may be focused further east, which would work against realizing the full snowfall potential. Will go with a few inches of snowfall along the immediate coast right now, tapering quickly to nothing by M-65. There certainly could be higher localized amounts with better lake enhancement. With so much uncertainty, will hold off issuing any winter headlines and let things develop a bit more for greater clarity. Aside from snow, gusty winds are also expected to accompany this system. Gusts near the Lake Huron shoreline near 35 mph, combined with snow, certainly present the risk of blowing and drifting snow, along with significant reductions in visibility, along with minor lakeshore flooding concerns.

SHORT TERM. (Tuesday night through Thursday) Issued at 338 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

High Impact Weather Potential: Low . Lingering snow potential across far NE lower.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Highly amplified troughing over the CONUS east of the Mississippi River and the associated surface cyclone centered over far SE Ontario will begin to lift north through Quebec Tuesday night into Wednesday. A second closed low will also dig sharply into the southern Great Plains during that time. On Thursday, another shortwave/jet max looks to dig towards the Great Lakes from Hudson Bay. Overall, the short term period looks quiet. The main focus will be potential lingering snowfall across areas of far NE lower close to the Lake Huron shoreline. This potential is discussed in depth in the near term discussion. Current confidence is that any ongoing snowfall across this area will end Tuesday night as the system departs the region, leaving little in the way of additional accumulation. Guidance hints at upper-level forcing from the digging trough sparking light precip chances across the area in the Thursday- Friday timeframe, but confidence is still low at this time. Otherwise, sunny skies are expected on Wednesday as high temperatures warm some into the upper 30s and low 40s. Temps may cool a few degrees on Thursday. Some gusty winds are also expected across the area through Wednesday on the backside of the departing system, especially near the Lake Huron shoreline. Gusts of 40+ mph Tuesday night into Wednesday will bring the chance for some blowing/drifting snow should accumulations materialize across this area.

LONG TERM. (Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 338 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

High Impact Weather Potential: Low for now

A shortwave/jet max is expected to punch from Ontario down into the Ohio River Valley late this week as a closed low sits over the southern Great Plains. Long range model guidance largely differs on the handling of the closed low between it completely cutting off from the flow and it getting re-absorbed. While the late-weekend period is being monitored for our next main chance at snow across the area, these discrepancies create large amounts of uncertainty as to how the pattern/set-up will evolve as this period nears. Additional troughing within the main flow does look to move overhead this weekend, however, at least bringing some chance for precip regardless of how the closed low well to our southwest progresses with time. Details should begin to become more clear in the coming days as far as what to expect this weekend. Otherwise, high temperatures look to hover near or slightly above early December averages heading through the first part of the weekend before dropping back closer to freezing late in the period.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 603 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

A complex area of low pressure will continue to ride up the the Atlantic coast over the next 24 hours. Edge of deep moisture associated with this system will skirt NE Lower Michigan thru Tuesday . placing APN along a rather tight moisture/precip gradient. Do expect some light snow to develop across NE Lower Michigan on Tuesday as a result of this system . dropping vsbys to MVFR Otherwise. widespread MVFR cigs will hold over all of Northern Lower Michigan tonight and Tuesday . as some residual light northerly flow lake effect snow showers fall across far NW Lower Michigan (TVC and mbL). Surface winds will remain from the north at 15 to 25 kts with gusts of 30 to 35 kts possible.

MARINE. Issued at 338 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

A deepening low pressure system will work up the eastern states tonight, then track into Quebec Tuesday through Wednesday. This system will likely bring some rain and snow to Lake Huron and possibly the St. Mary's river system late tonight and Tuesday. Otherwise, scattered light lake effect is expected through tonight. The pressure gradient will be fairly tight over this time, resulting in solid advisory and gale force winds over all nearshore waters, which look to persist through Wednesday. Drier and milder weather returns by Wednesday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY until 7 PM EST Tuesday for MIZ018-020- 021-024>026-031-099. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 7 AM EST Tuesday for LHZ345-346. GALE WARNING from 7 AM Tuesday to 6 AM EST Wednesday for LHZ345- 346. GALE WARNING until 6 AM EST Wednesday for LHZ347>349. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 7 AM EST Tuesday for LMZ341. GALE WARNING from 7 AM Tuesday to 6 AM EST Wednesday for LMZ341. GALE WARNING until 6 AM EST Wednesday for LMZ323-342-344>346. LS . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 7 AM EST Tuesday for LSZ321-322. GALE WARNING from 7 AM Tuesday to 6 AM EST Wednesday for LSZ321- 322.

UPDATE . MR NEAR TERM . JK SHORT TERM . DJC LONG TERM . DJC AVIATION . MR MARINE . JK


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 24 mi60 min N 21 G 26 34°F 1014.2 hPa
45002 - N MICHIGAN- Halfway between North Manitou and Washington Islands. 41 mi50 min N 21 G 29 31°F 46°F6 ft1014.9 hPa27°F
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 55 mi60 min N 24 G 30 34°F 1014.6 hPa
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 63 mi60 min N 8.9 G 19 28°F 1015.6 hPa

Wind History for Port Inland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherry Capital Airport, MI21 mi47 minNNW 10 G 1810.00 miOvercast31°F21°F69%1013.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTVC

Wind History from TVC (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.