Sunday, December15, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Maple City, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 8:03AMSunset 5:04PM Sunday December 15, 2019 12:43 PM EST (17:43 UTC) Moonrise 8:46PMMoonset 11:18AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ344 Sleeping Bear Point To Grand Traverse Light Mi- 1210 Pm Est Sun Dec 15 2019
Rest of the afternoon..West wind 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 20 knots. Scattered snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Tonight..West wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Monday..West wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Monday night..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 3 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ344 Expires:201912160115;;830580 FZUS53 KAPX 151710 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1210 PM EST Sun Dec 15 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ344-160115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Maple City, MI
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location: 44.95, -85.84     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 151728 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1228 PM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

UPDATE. Issued at 1014 AM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

Northwest flow lake effect is still ongoing . the highest reported snowfall total so far is near Wellston . with 3 inches overnight. Elsewhere is around a 1-2 inch average. Wouldn't doubt if someone sees another 2 inches in Kalkaska county where the strongest band has been set up for the past several hours. There are some signs of the winds beginning to back, as forecast, and should start some westerly flow lake effect and lighten the snow in intensity as the sun does it's work and begins to break it up a bit. Temperatures are in the mid teens to low 20s and won't budge much, as highs are only forecast to be in the low to mid 20s.

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 211 AM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

Impactful weather: Minimal/None.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

General upper level troughing was over the Great Lakes and into the east coast early this morning, with one shortwave and associated sfc trough dropping into the western Lakes and nrn Michigan. Minimal forcing was associated with these features, and moisture in the convective boundary layer was minimal. However, cyclonic low level flow and continued cold advection, with H8 temps falling through the negative teens, continued to result in light nuisance NW flow lake effect. Upstream, there was some shallow mid level ridging into Manitoba and western Ontario, out ahead of the next shortwave now dropping through Saskatchewan.

Heading through this morning, the western Great Lakes wave will work across nrn Michigan, and inversion heights do jump up a touch, but just to near 5kft. Would expect to see some sort of increase in reflectivity on radar, however, any significant accumulation will not occur, as we actually lose the cyclonic convergence of the low level flow, and winds will not be locked in, rather they will be backing to out of the west. The shallow mid level ridging and higher sfc pressure starts moving in this afternoon, with subsequent drying with lowering inversions, weaken and/or end any lake effect. Winds backing more out of the WSW into the evening, and low level warm advection decreasing the overlake instability, will just add to the more harsh conditions for sustaining any lake effect. Fcst soundings show that the low levels actually will dry up almost completely by late tonight. Should be no snow occurring by daybreak Monday.

Snowfall in the favored WNW/NW flow regimes will be no more than 1-2 inches.

High temperatures will mostly be in the low to mid 20s. Lows tonight will mainly be in the 5F-10F range in eastern upper, to the largely the 10F-15F range in nrn lower.

SHORT TERM. (Monday through Tuesday) Issued at 245 AM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

High Impact Weather: Accumulating snowfall likely Tuesday afternoon.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Snow accumulations Tuesday.

Not a whole lot of weather is expected Monday into Monday night with nearly zonal flow aloft, weak surface ridging and fairly dry air in place. Perhaps a few flurries here or there but that looks like about it. A short wave moving by to the north Tuesday along with an approaching arctic cold front will bring a shot of synoptic moisture. This is expected to ramp up lake effect snow showers by Tuesday afternoon with some accumulation likely in west northwest flow favored areas. Temperatures are expected to be a few degrees below normal through this period.

LONG TERM. (Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 245 AM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

High Impact Weather: Accumulating lake effect snow showers expected Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Lake effect snow showers will continue Tuesday night into Wednesday as a quick shot of arctic air (-22 C) dives into the region. This will lead to brisk and very cold conditions along with additional snow accumulations. Veering winds into the northwest will likely shift the bands around. Possibly some warm advection driven snow showers Wednesday night, otherwise not a lot looks like it'll be going on across northern Michigan for a few days. Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees or more below normal Wednesday then moderate to closer to normal by the end of the week then possibly edge up to slightly above normal next weekend (but a lack of flow may limit this).

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 1227 PM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

Cold advection in gusty NW flow will continue to result in light lake effect snow around PLN/TVC/MBL, with weakening snow into the afternoon, focused around PLN, as winds turn more out of the west with approaching higher pressure. Snows are likely to end by tonight as conditions become more harsh for sustaining any lake snows, and possibly even low clouds. MVFR CIGS, will gradually go to VFR with time. Additional snowfall will be a half inch or less.

MARINE. Issued at 211 AM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

Cold advection has led to a tighter pressure gradient, and NW winds ramping into advisory speeds, which will continue today. There may be a few gale force gusts along the NE lower Lake Huron coast as well. Winds back around more WSW later Sunday through Sunday night, ahead of an approaching weak cold front. The gradient may stay tight enough for some advisory winds to come back toward daybreak Monday for Lake Michigan and Whitefish Bay. The gradient is then expected to loosen back up for Monday night.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . NONE. LM . NONE. LS . NONE.

UPDATE . TL NEAR TERM . SMD SHORT TERM . AS LONG TERM . AS AVIATION . TL MARINE . SMD


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 24 mi64 min NNW 13 G 18 27°F 1017.3 hPa
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 55 mi64 min WNW 12 G 16 26°F 1018.6 hPa
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 63 mi64 min WNW 12 G 14 21°F 1017.3 hPa

Wind History for Port Inland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherry Capital Airport, MI21 mi51 minWNW 910.00 miOvercast26°F17°F69%1017 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTVC

Wind History from TVC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW5W7W5W7W5W4NW5N6NW11
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmSW4SW4W5CalmCalmCalmW3W4SW3CalmW4W4W3NW5
2 days agoSE7S10
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S9S7S9S8S8S6S6S3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.