Wednesday, May27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Maple City, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:01AMSunset 9:11PM Wednesday May 27, 2020 12:56 AM EDT (04:56 UTC) Moonrise 9:16AMMoonset 12:09AM Illumination 25% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ344 Sleeping Bear Point To Grand Traverse Light Mi- 1203 Am Edt Wed May 27 2020
Overnight..Light winds. Slight chance of showers after midnight, then chance of showers after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Light winds. Rain showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday night..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Rain showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ344 Expires:202005271215;;812193 FZUS53 KAPX 270403 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1203 AM EDT Wed May 27 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ344-271215-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Maple City, MI
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location: 44.95, -85.84     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 261933 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 333 PM EDT Tue May 26 2020

NEAR TERM. (Through Wednesday) Issued at 210 PM EDT Tue May 26 2020

. Thunderstorms Popping This Afternoon .

High Impact Weather Potential . Thunderstorm potential with little threat of severe weather.

Thunderstorms popping this afternoon in moist air with some help from terrain influences. Expect some showers and thunderstorms to continue to develop along US-131 and eventually move north and east and dissipate by late evening. SBCAPEs around 1500J/kg across the interior were helping the storm develop. Will need to keep an eye on the storms interactions with lake breezes, but overall little shear in this light wind regime and high freezing level (arnd 13kft) will make it tough to get severe thunderstorms today.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast . Upper low continues to rotate slowly through the southern Plains with troughing north into western Canada. Surface low and frontal boundary extends north to south through the plains. Warm and moist air remains east of the boundary over much of the eastern US.

The upper trough/surface boundary move slowly east reaching the western parts of Lake Superior by Wednesday night. Warm moist air remains entrenched over the Great Lakes Wednesday. CAPE values will be in the 500-1000J/kg range as temperatures again get into the 80s with surface dewpoints in the 60s. Wind fields remain light with a descent 850mb jet shoving north of the region. So once again, instability around for thunderstorms to develop but will need something to kick off the precipitation. So while do not expect widespread development of showers or thunderstorms, should be at least a chance of precipitation developing Wednesday.

SHORT TERM. (Wednesday night through Friday) Issued at 332 PM EDT Tue May 26 2020

High impact weather potential: Chances of thunderstorms Wednesday night through Thursday night. Excessive rainfall possible Thursday through Friday morning.

Southwesterly flow will continue to pump in Gulf moisture through Thursday night, producing a continued warm and humid air mass with the possibilities of showers and thunderstorms . especially Thursday afternoon and evening hours. Strong Bermuda High and low pressure over the Oklahoma area will be the cause of this continued southwesterly flow advecting Gulf moisture and warm temperatures into the forecast area. PWATS are still progged to be between 1.25 to 1.75" during this time frame. MLCAPE still around 400 J/kg during peak heating, but should be enough to continue producing some rain showers and possibly some thunder . especially with some decent lapse rates and dew points around 65 degrees with not much of a cap on forecast soundings. The low pressure near Oklahoma finally begins to move northward towards the Great Lakes region . bringing with it even more moisture to the forecast area and synoptic forcing to help with a more organized and widespread rain event Thursday through Friday morning. Localized rainfall amounts of 2.00" would not be out of the question. This would exacerbate flooding problems and recovery efforts near the Saginaw Bay area from last weeks flooding event. WPC has northern Michigan in the 3 day excessive rainfall outlook at this time.

As mentioned above, winds will be southwesterly through Thursday, with gusts to 15-20 kts during the afternoon. Winds finally begin to veer to northwesterly Thursday night into Friday as aforementioned system passes to the east of Michigan.

Daytime temperatures will continue to be above normal for this time of the year Thursday . reaching into the mid 70s to near 80. Much cooler and less humid air will arrive behind the departing system . only reaching into the mid 60s to low 70s. Some portions downwind from the Great Lakes will also be much cooler. Low temperatures Wednesday night will be in the upper 50s to low 60s and Thursday night will drop into the upper 40s to near 50 across eastern upper . while northern lower stays in the mid 50s.

LONG TERM. (Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 332 PM EDT Tue May 26 2020

High impact weather potential: Frost possible Saturday night.

High pressure building into the forecast area will give the best chances for some precipitation-free days during the weekend. There is the potential of frost Saturday night as clear skies and light winds will produce good radiational cooling. The next chance for precipitation appears to be the beginning of next work week when a cold front associated with a low pressure system over Canada sweeps through the Great Lakes region. Daytime temperatures will begin below normal for this time of the year . only reaching into the upper 50s Saturday, but moderate a bit each day . until reaching near 70 by Monday.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 136 PM EDT Tue May 26 2020

VFR conditions will prevail through Wednesday. Some patchy fog could lower visibilities late tonight/early Wednesday. Light winds continue as well. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and early evening mainly across the interior of northern Lower Michigan. Wednesday scattered showers and thunderstorms are again possible.

MARINE. Issued at 1011 AM EDT Tue May 26 2020

Persistent light winds continue through the week. Warm temperatures and sporadic thunderstorms continue through Thursday with cooler and drier weather to end the workweek.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . NONE. LM . NONE. LS . NONE.

NEAR TERM . KF SHORT TERM . TL LONG TERM . TL AVIATION . KF MARINE . KF


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 24 mi76 min SSE 5.1 G 8.9 68°F 1015.2 hPa
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 55 mi76 min E 5.1 G 8 74°F 1015.6 hPa
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 63 mi76 min E 8 G 13 57°F 1014.2 hPa

Wind History for Port Inland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherry Capital Airport, MI21 mi63 minN 010.00 miFair69°F64°F87%1014.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTVC

Wind History from TVC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmS34S3S6S6SW6
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN44CalmS7S13
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6N11NW8NW5W5NW5CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmW5CalmCalmCalm4S5S64W8W8SW8
G15
N11NE8N7N9NE3NE4NE4CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.