Monday, August19, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
St. Paul, MN

Version 3.4
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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Sunrise 6:17AMSunset 8:14PM Monday August 19, 2019 3:16 PM CDT (20:16 UTC) Moonrise 9:24PMMoonset 9:09AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Paul, MN
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location: 44.96, -93.1     debug

Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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Fxus63 kmpx 191813
area forecast discussion
national weather service twin cities chanhassen mn
113 pm cdt Mon aug 19 2019

Issued at 113 pm cdt Mon aug 19 2019
updated to include 06z aviation discussion below.

Short term (today through Tuesday)
issued at 354 am cdt Mon aug 19 2019
no significant changes to the previous forecast, other than
increasing pops slightly for Monday night across the southwest.

Today will be sunny and a bit warmer as the surface high pressure
shifts eastward and allows southerly return flow on the back side to
advect warmer air and higher dewpoints across the region. This can
be seen but precipitable water values of 1.5 inches across western
minnesota Monday evening, while western wisconsin remains at less
than an inch.

The low level moisture together with steeper mid-level lapse rates
will lead to MUCAPE values in excess of 2000 j kg Monday night along
the minnesota dakota border. Meanwhile a weak shortwave trough,
which as of Sunday night was located over northern california, will
move eastward and provide the lifting mechanism for scattered
thunderstorms Monday night. Although this is subtle feature, there
is a fairly impressive response in h850 theta_e advection, so did
increase pops a bit higher than guidance in southwest minnesota.

On Tuesday a cold front will move through the region and provide
additional chances for showers and thunderstorms, but at this point
it looks like most locations will have just increased cloudiness,
and perhaps some light rainfall.

Long term (Tuesday night through Sunday)
issued at 354 am cdt Mon aug 19 2019
the middle of the week will start out dry with a taste of fall in
the air as a cold front moves through the region and brings highs in
the 70s, with lows in the 50s for Wednesday and Thursday. The next
shortwave trough approaches Thursday night into Friday, and this
will bring in warmer air and be the focus for another chance for
thunderstorms. Looking ahead, warmer temperatures and increased
humidity should last through next weekend.

Cold air advection will continue Tuesday night as surface high
pressure builds across the region. Wednesday will a great day to be
outside, with light northerly winds, low humidity, and highs in the
mid to upper 70s. The same holds true for the start of Thursday as

Throughout the day on Thursday, surface high pressure will again
track eastward and southerly winds will develop on the back side
which will bring a warmer and more humid air mass across western
minnesota. This warm and humid air mass will overspread the rest of
minnesota and wisconsin over the weekend. Meanwhile, both the gfs
and ECMWF are in good agreement with a more zonal upper level jet
developing across the northern conus. This will increase the deep
layer shear profile. If convection does manage to develop this
weekend, it could be somewhat organized. Lack of instability is a
limiting factor. It is still way to early to latch on to any one
forecast, but the big picture perspective does merit this as
something worth watching.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 113 pm cdt Mon aug 19 2019
vfr with mostly clear skies through this evening, with
thunderstorm chances developing after midnight at axn rwf rnh and
mid to late morning at stc msp. Ceilings will begin to lower
overnight with MVFR conditions expected by tomorrow morning at
minnesota terminals, and by late morning at rnh eau. Ifr ceilings
appear possible across western minnesota where ceilings will be
lower. A thunderstorm complex is expected to develop over
southwest minnesota and dive south across iowa overnight, but
confidence is low on how widespread thunderstorm coverage becomes
north of this complex through tomorrow morning. Best chances for
-tsra will be at axn rwf mkt, but have included a prob30 mentions
at all mn terminals.

Kmsp... Ceilings are expected to lower overnight, with MVFR
ceilings expected by mid-morning. Two periods of -shra -tsra
appear possible, late morning early afternoon and then again
tomorrow evening, but confidence remains low in how widespread
coverage will be at the terminal.

Outlook for kmsp
wed...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.

Thu...VFR. Wind NE 5 kts.

Fri...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.

Mpx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Short term... Jrb
long term... Jrb
aviation... Eta

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Downtown Holman Field, MN3 mi24 minSSW 710.00 miFair79°F57°F47%1015.2 hPa
Minneapolis, Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, MN8 mi24 minS 810.00 miA Few Clouds79°F55°F45%1015.3 hPa
South St. Paul Municipal-Richard E. Flemi, MN8 mi22 minS 710.00 miFair78°F56°F48%1015.6 hPa
Lake Elmo Airport, MN13 mi41 minSSW 910.00 mi77°F59°F54%1016.6 hPa
Minneapolis / Blaine, MN15 mi32 minSSW 610.00 miPartly Cloudy79°F55°F45%1015.6 hPa
Minneapolis, Crystal Airport, MN17 mi24 minSSW 610.00 miFair79°F54°F42%1014.8 hPa
Minneapolis - Flying Cloud Airport, MN21 mi24 minVar 4 G 1410.00 miFair78°F57°F50%1015.2 hPa
Minneapolis, Airlake Airport, MN23 mi82 minN 010.00 miFair79°F60°F54%1016.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSTP

Wind History from STP (wind in knots)
Last 24hrNW15NW13
1 day agoS10SE8S11SE10S12SE5SE6SE5SE6CalmSE9NE4--NW10NE3NW13
2 days ago--NW14

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Twin Cities, MN (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Minneapolis, MN
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.