Tuesday, July27, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
St. Paul, MN

Version 3.4
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3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:50AMSunset 8:47PM Monday July 26, 2021 11:56 PM CDT (04:56 UTC) Moonrise 9:46PMMoonset 7:33AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Paul, MN
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location: 44.96, -93.1     debug


Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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FXUS63 KMPX 270353 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1053 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021

UPDATE. Issued at 1042 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021

Updated to include 06z aviation discussion below.

SHORT TERM. (This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 337 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021

Short term features heat and humidity with two conditional severe thunderstorms threats tonight and Tuesday evening.

The rest of this afternoon is expected to remain quiet. A band of high clouds is currently positioned over the Twin Cities on south this afternoon. Back edge should push through over the next hour or two and allow for sunshine to heat up temperatures before sunset. My primary forecast concern this evening is the risk of severe thunderstorms, primarily north of I-94. The best chance for storm development has trended later, after sunset for our area.

A broad ridge has built in across the central CONUS today, with an area of stronger northwest flow across the upper Mississippi Valley. This places an area of 40 kts of deep layer shear across MN and northern WI. At the surface, strong daytime heating coupled with mid 60s dew points has led to a moderately unstable atmosphere with 1500 to 2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Mid level lapse rates are 7.0C/km and PW values are in the 1.3 to 1.5" range. These parameters can support severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds if storms can initiate. However, the environment has a few limiting factors working against it. Wind profiles reflect weak low level flow and weak forcing mechanisms may prevent storms from developing. Additionally, the lack of any developed Cu is a concern, but most recent GOES imagery have some CU going up further south of the NW MN storms. These storms may continue SE and end up the main event if nothing else can initiate. 12z CAMs offer a mix variety from nothing to several thunderstorm clusters moving across the eastern half of the CWA.

I've opted to keep the Excessive Heat Watch in effect for Tuesday and Wednesday and defer any headline decisions at this time. High temperatures warm into the low/mid 90s with heat indices in the upper 90s to around 100 by Tuesday afternoon. Forecast models have 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE along with sfc dew points in the lower 70s. Model soundings show 40 kts of deep layer shear aloft, but strong capping (h7 temperatures 12C+) will be present Tuesday evening. This can limit widespread thunderstorm development since updrafts will struggle to break through the capping inversion. Tuesday night offers little relief from the heat with lows in the mid 70s in the metro and lower 70s elsewhere. The lack of recovery overnight may support a two day excessive heat warning rather than an advisory and then warning for Wednesday.

LONG TERM. (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 337 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021

The key messages for the extended are the dangerously hot conditions on Wednesday, followed by the potential for severe storms Wednesday late afternoon/evening. Looking ahead, expect cooler temperatures the rest of the week with mostly dry conditions.

Wednesday - The conditional threat for hot and humid conditions remains in place for Wednesday. Forecast highs are in the mid-90s to near 100 degrees, and heat indices are 100 to 105. There is a chance that clouds could limit the heating on Wednesday, but that scenario seems unlikely. The weather-in-context tool shows near record warm for both Tuesday night lows and Wednesday afternoon highs. Did continue with the Excessive Heat Watch, and if this forecast remains on track would likely see an Excessive Heat Warning needed.

The hot/humid conditions at the surface together with a dry elevated mixed layer aloft will set the stage for a very unstable atmosphere. The question remains whether or not storms are able to break through the warm layer aloft. At this point, it does appear that there will be enough low-level convergence to initiate some storms, and after that happens expect them to develop quickly. The main threat would be large hail and damaging wind. The deep layer shear profile with northwest flow would favor supercells, so it is possible that the SPC outlook could get upgraded to hatched hail (at least 2") meaning the potential for significant severe hail.

Thursday through Monday - The forecast should be dry for the most part as the upper level ridge builds and slides a bit farther east, and the shortwaves on the track closer to the Great Lakes. Meanwhile upslope across the High Plains will lead to thunderstorms south of the Missouri River Valley. The end result is Minnesota/Wisconsin being left in between forcing, so this should keep the region dry. Temperatures will be a bit cooler, but still above normal, with highs in the mid to upper 80s.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1042 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021

Have kept all TAFs as VFR and devoid of precip mention as there is high uncertainty as to the timing/placement of any convection overnight into Tuesday morning. CAMs are still highly variable on the placement with diminishing returns on any potential convection at the two WI TAF sites. Cannot rule out any convection for sites along and north of the I-94 corridor but chances are too low for inclusion at this point. So with such uncertainty and lowering PoPs, have gone an optimistic route with dry TAFs and will adjust if/as necessary. Southwesterly winds early on will swing around to easterly during the day Tuesday, speeds under 10kt. Have maintained mention of LLWS for 35 kts at 230 degrees at RWF overnight.

KMSP . VFR conditions expected throughout this duration with much greater chances for a dry TAF than seeing convection. Chances are non-zero for SHRA/TSRA but any convection is expected to remain to the N and E of MSP. Will monitor radar trends and amend as needed.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Wed . VFR. Chc MVFR/SHRA/TSRA. Wind SW 10-15kts bcmg NW late. Thu . VFR. Winds N/NW 5-10kts. Fri . VFR. Winds SE 5kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MN . Excessive Heat Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for Anoka-Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Dakota- Faribault-Freeborn-Hennepin-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur- Martin-McLeod-Meeker-Nicollet-Pope-Ramsey-Redwood-Renville- Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns-Steele-Stevens-Swift- Waseca-Washington-Watonwan-Wright-Yellow Medicine.

WI . None.

UPDATE . JPC SHORT TERM . BPH LONG TERM . JRB AVIATION . JPC


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Downtown Holman Field, MN3 mi64 minSSW 510.00 miFair80°F70°F71%1012.4 hPa
Minneapolis, Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, MN8 mi64 minSSW 710.00 miPartly Cloudy82°F70°F67%1012.8 hPa
South St. Paul Municipal-Richard E. Flemi, MN8 mi62 minSSW 710.00 miFair80°F67°F65%1013.5 hPa
Lake Elmo Airport, MN13 mi62 minSSW 810.00 miFair77°F68°F74%1013.5 hPa
Minneapolis / Blaine, MN15 mi62 minSSW 10 G 1410.00 miFair84°F70°F62%1012.9 hPa
Minneapolis, Crystal Airport, MN17 mi64 minS 810.00 miFair82°F70°F67%1011.9 hPa
Minneapolis - Flying Cloud Airport, MN21 mi64 minSSW 710.00 miFair79°F71°F77%1012.6 hPa
Minneapolis, Airlake Airport, MN23 mi82 minN 010.00 miFair75°F66°F74%1014.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSTP

Wind History from STP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmSE5E4CalmN9CalmS4SE5SE45W9W9
G16
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmW5W6W10NW9
G16
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G25
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2 days agoSW8SW12
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NW13NW8W4Calm

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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