Friday, January22, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
St. Paul, MN

Version 3.4
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8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:39AMSunset 5:08PM Friday January 22, 2021 6:45 PM CST (00:45 UTC) Moonrise 12:21PMMoonset 2:11AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Paul, MN
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location: 44.96, -93.1     debug


Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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FXUS63 KMPX 230013 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 613 PM CST Fri Jan 22 2021

SHORT TERM. (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 315 PM CST Fri Jan 22 2021

We're still on track to see widespread snow Saturday afternoon and night. Changes with this forecast were pretty minor, with main change to delay a little the arrival of the snow Saturday afternoon and its departure Saturday night. With this forecast went ahead with and advisory for a widespread 3-6" snowfall event, though a narrow upgrade for amounts more 6-7" may be needed. At the moment, it's Redwood Falls over to Mankato and Red Wing where the bit of a boom scenario exists.

This afternoon, we have a cold high pressure centered over northern Iowa. This will continue into the Ohio Valley through Saturday as a trough of low pressure comes out of the Rockies and across the Plains. Surface reflection for this snow is not all that impressive, but when you go up to h7, a 40-50kt southerly jet will move across the Plains and into IA. We're at the north end of this h7 jet and the isentropic ascent it creates is what will drive our snow event. For QPF, stayed close to WPC guidance, which is pretty close to the what the GFS/GEFS mean has, with a QPF max of 0.4" across the US-14 corridor. Given the broad forcing associated with this event and it's relatively short duration (up to 12 hours), not really buying some of the high res models with upwards of a half inch of QPF over south central MN. Another area of concern with this forecast are snow ratios and this is really the area that could sink this forecast. Temperature profiles support something like a 15-18:1 ratio. The Cobb ratio procedure produces this as well, with decent lift (omega) contained within the DGZ, which will be running 5k to 8k feet deep. With that said, I've seen plenty of times where we were expecting higher ratios like this, only to end up with something more 11-13:1, especially in events that are primarily driven by isentropic ascent. If we do end up more 18:1, then amounts of 7-8 inches will be possible down around the RWF/ULM/MKT region. If we stay closer to climatology for ratios (13:1), then this will just be a high end advisory. Looking at the Garcia method to estimate snowfall potential from isentropic lift in a 12 hour period, we have 2.0-2.5 g/kg mixing ratios on the 290K isentropic surface, which would work out to 4-5" of snow.

So why just an advisory and no warning where the current forecast has 6-7" of snow? There are several factors playing into it. First, the sensitivity of needing better than 15:1 snow ratios to get more than 6 inches leads to reduced confidence in those higher totals. In addition, looking at the snow probabilities, our probabilities for seeing more than 6" of snow is around 33% from that Redwood Falls to Mankato and Red Wing strip, with our current snowfall forecast here running between the 75th and 90th percentile. Given what is already a high end snowfall forecast that's closely tied to what snow ratios end up being, decided to go with an advisory for where snow amounts are expected to exceed 3 inches, messaging the potential for an upgrade to a warning from Redwood over to Goodhue counties in Minnesota.

LONG TERM. (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 315 PM CST Fri Jan 22 2021

The long term period will be marked by Canadian high pressure centered north of us gradually drifting west to east, keeping conditions benign across the upper Midwest. The only exception to this is a potential shortwave pushing through Wednesday/Wednesday night. Right now, models have this shortwave pushing too far south to give us any real impacts, but some 10-15 PoPs in the NBM seem good for right now. The most likely outcome is a near miss to our south with far southern MN possibly seeing a few light snow showers. As of right now the GFS is far more bullish than the ECMWF, however even then it is a high outlier within GEFS members.

High pressure returns to the area by the end of the week and into the weekend, keeping conditions mild. Temperature wise, nothing to really shake up the airmass will keep conditions seasonal through most of the week, warming up on Friday and into the weekend as southerly winds pick up late Thursday into early Friday, with mid 30s not out of the question by Friday afternoon.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 547 PM CST Fri Jan 22 2021

A swath of MVFR clouds continues to slowly shift east over northern and western MN, so have added its mention to the western MN TAFs along with STC as those 3 TAFs have the highest confidence of realizing the MVFR ceilings. A little less confidence in MKT, MSP and the WI TAF sites but will continue to monitor and amend if necessary. The MVFR ceilings are not expected to last the night, with some VFR time in there from the overnight hours thru daybreak.

The bigger story is the impending snow coming for Saturday thru Saturday night. Snow is expected to move into western MN late Saturday morning then continue to overspread central-southern MN into western WI through the day Saturday and continue through Saturday evening. A fairly quick transition from VFR to MVFR to IFR conditions is expected, if not directly VFR to IFR. Highest snowfall rates are not expected until late Saturday afternoon thru Saturday evening.

KMSP . VFR conditions likely thru the overnight hours but will need to monitor the progression of the MVFR ceilings in western MN to see if they will in fact reach MSP. The concern then turns to the snowfall for Saturday. Start time looks to be 19z-20z with conditions degrading thereafter. Not expecting 1 in/hr rates but 1/2" to 3/4" per hour certainly cannot be ruled out late Saturday afternoon thru Saturday evening, at which point IFR conditions are likely.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Sun . MVFR cigs. Wind N 5-10 kts. Mon . VFR. Wind NE 10-15 kts. Tue . Chc MVFR cigs. Wind ENE 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MN . Winter Weather Advisory from noon Saturday to 3 AM CST Sunday for Anoka-Blue Earth-Carver-Dakota-Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue- Hennepin-Kandiyohi-Le Sueur-McLeod-Meeker-Nicollet-Ramsey-Rice- Scott-Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns-Steele-Waseca-Washington-Wright.

Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM Saturday to midnight CST Saturday night for Brown-Chippewa-Lac Qui Parle-Martin-Redwood-Renville- Swift-Watonwan-Yellow Medicine.

WI . Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 6 AM CST Sunday for Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-St. Croix.



SHORT TERM . MPG LONG TERM . TDH AVIATION . JPC


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Downtown Holman Field, MN3 mi53 minSW 610.00 miFair13°F-1°F54%1026.4 hPa
Minneapolis, Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, MN8 mi53 minSW 510.00 miPartly Cloudy13°F1°F59%1026.5 hPa
South St. Paul Municipal-Richard E. Flemi, MN8 mi51 minSW 410.00 miFair13°F-1°F55%1024.7 hPa
Lake Elmo Airport, MN13 mi53 minSW 510.00 miFair12°F-4°F48%1024 hPa
Minneapolis / Blaine, MN15 mi61 minWSW 310.00 miPartly Cloudy16°F3°F57%1024 hPa
Minneapolis, Crystal Airport, MN17 mi53 minSW 310.00 miFair12°F1°F61%1026 hPa
Minneapolis - Flying Cloud Airport, MN21 mi53 minN 010.00 miFair12°F3°F67%1026.1 hPa
Minneapolis, Airlake Airport, MN23 mi51 minN 010.00 miFair9°F-2°F61%1024 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSTP

Wind History from STP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW16NW13
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2 days agoNW9NW8W9W9W6SW6SW5S4S7S8SE9SE7SE9SE14SE9SE14S15SE7SW11
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.