Friday, September18, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Falcon Heights, MN

Version 3.4
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8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:54AMSunset 7:18PM Friday September 18, 2020 10:56 AM CDT (15:56 UTC) Moonrise 7:12AMMoonset 7:23PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Falcon Heights, MN
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location: 44.96, -93.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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FXUS63 KMPX 181139 AAA AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 639 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020

SHORT TERM. (Today through Saturday) Issued at 416 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020

Temperatures are overachieving on the cold side this morning. The lack of stratus advertised over eastern MN and western WI in previous forecasts has allowed temperatures to drop quickly to freezing across much of WI, and into the mid 30s over eastern MN, during the last hour or so. Expanded headlines again and posted a Freeze Warning for several counties where obs are at or below freezing. With another few hours of cooling to go, it's possible a hard freeze will be observed in many of these areas, ending the growing season.

Patches of overcast have been observed over central and southwestern MN, however. Temperatures here are quite a bit milder in those locations. The stratus should eventually dissipate this morning with another mostly sunny day on tap and temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

The HRRR smoke model, which has been doing a fantastic job with the wildfire smoke from the west coast this summer, brings the elevated smoke back in gradually on Saturday. A reasonably well- mixed atmosphere should mitigate any significant impact on temperatures, but did raise sky cover to 40% under the eastward building smoke plume.

LONG TERM. (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 416 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020

At the beginning of the period, a strong upper-level trough and downstream jetstreak will be departing eastward from the northeast US. Meanwhile, split but mostly zonal flow will have overspread the western half of the US. A modest trough located over the Rockies moving east will encroach on the Northern Plains by Sunday evening. Sunday looks to be rather breezy as a LLJ develops over MN in response to the approaching trough. Southwesterly sustained winds of around 20 knots with gusts from 30 to 35 knots are possible (especially across southern MN). Sunday's highs will be in the 70s across MN and upper 60s in west-central WI. Usually, an approaching trough would also mean a decent chance of precipitation for our region. However, NBM is pessimistic with PoPs due to the trough weakening/becoming less defined with time. The strongest dynamics of with the trough are also forecast to be well to the northwest limiting the amount of lift we will receive. The GFS, ECMWF, and GEM all try to splatter light amounts of QPF over the region Sunday night into Monday, with the GFS being the most aggressive. However, forecast soundings look rather dry during this time period so NBM's PoPs of only around 30% appear warranted. Monday could again be breezy but winds should not be as strong as Sunday.

By mid-week, temperatures are forecast to warm above normal once again. Tuesday will be dry and mostly sunny with a high around 80. Temperatures will not change much Wednesday but a slight chance of precipitation exists as a shortwave is forecast to pass through the Northern Plains. Forecast models all have a different handle on this wave, with the ECMWF and GEM being more amplified than the GFS. Time will tell if this chance of precipitation will result in any accumulating surface moisture.

By Wednesday evening, a strong, 150 knot southwesterly jetstreak will arrive onshore of British Columbia/Washington. Nearly all long- range models agree that 850 hPa WAA into southwestern Canada will amplify an upper-level ridge over western Canada. This spells bad news for people who are tired of the heat and are awaiting "true" Fall weather. It appears that they will have to wait a bit longer as the ridge is forecast to eventually shift over central Canada late next week in response to the low-level warm air advecting into our region. The good news is that angular momentum appears to increase significantly within the upper-level flow pattern from the end of the period onward. Thus, while we may not experience cooler weather, we will hopefully receive additional precipitation from the models hinting at stronger troughing systems.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) Issued at 639 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020

Mid level stratus deck over central MN should dissipate later this morning. Otherwise, light winds will become SE/ESE this morning and persist through the period.

KMSP . Expecting the stratus northwest to dissipate before potentially reaching MSP later this morning. Otherwise, no concerns through the period.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Sat . VFR. Wind S 10-15 kts. Sun . VFR. Slight chc -SHRA/MVFR late night. Wind S 10-20G30 kts. Mon . VFR. Slight chc -shra/MVFR in mrng. Wind SW 10-20G30 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MN . Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for Chisago-Kanabec.

Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for Anoka-Benton- Dakota-Goodhue-Isanti-Mille Lacs-Washington.

WI . Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for Barron-Chippewa- Dunn-Eau Claire-Pierce-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.

Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for Pepin.



SHORT TERM . Borghoff LONG TERM . CTG AVIATION . Borghoff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Minneapolis, Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, MN6 mi63 minSE 810.00 miA Few Clouds52°F26°F37%1031.6 hPa
Downtown Holman Field, MN6 mi63 minSE 610.00 miFair53°F28°F38%1031.8 hPa
South St. Paul Municipal-Richard E. Flemi, MN8 mi61 minSE 410.00 miFair51°F29°F44%1031.2 hPa
Minneapolis / Blaine, MN14 mi71 minESE 710.00 miA Few Clouds52°F33°F50%1031.2 hPa
Minneapolis, Crystal Airport, MN14 mi63 minSE 810.00 miFair54°F28°F37%1031.1 hPa
Lake Elmo Airport, MN16 mi81 minSE 510.00 miFair50°F28°F43%1031.8 hPa
Minneapolis - Flying Cloud Airport, MN18 mi63 minSE 810.00 miFair52°F30°F45%1031.1 hPa
Minneapolis, Airlake Airport, MN23 mi61 minE 310.00 miFair52°F28°F41%1031.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSTP

Wind History from STP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4N5NE4NE7N76--N4NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE6
1 day agoN8N9
G20
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G21
N14
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N13N13N11N8NW12N8N7N7N6N5N7N7N7NW7N6N5N4Calm3NE6
2 days agoSW15
G23
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G19
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W10
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SW7S5S5S5CalmCalmCalmE3CalmW7W6NW6W4NW6NW7NW7N14
G19
N12
G20

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Minneapolis, MN
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