Wednesday, April8, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Falcon Heights, MN

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:39AMSunset 7:49PM Tuesday April 7, 2020 11:17 PM CDT (04:17 UTC) Moonrise 6:27PMMoonset 5:53AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Falcon Heights, MN
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location: 44.96, -93.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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FXUS63 KMPX 080006 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 706 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2020

UPDATE. Issued at 652 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2020

Updated to include 00z aviation discussion below.

SHORT TERM. (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 238 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2020

Activity from early today has quickly moved east with the surface front and upper shortwave trough. Mostly clear skies have moved into the area and will remain for much of the night. However, another shortwave trough and much stronger cold front will move into the area later tonight and Wednesday. The best combination of forcing and saturation with these features will be across the southern portion of the area late tonight into early Wednesday afternoon, so confined the highest PoPs to that area.

LONG TERM. (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 238 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2020

A much colder large scale pattern will settle across the region for the remainder of the forecast period, with northwest flow giving way to a large scale upper trough across the eastern part of North America. We'll have some chance of diurnal scattered showers Thursday into Friday with the upper cold pool and some lingering cyclonic flow, but overall chances should be fairly limited given the dryness of the airmass. Chances for more widespread precipitation will come into the area for Saturday into the first part of next week. However, the guidance shows quite a bit of spread on the specifics beyond Friday, and tied PoPs primarily to the consensus NBM guidance. That being said, we will need to keep an eye on the latter half of the weekend, with most of the deterministic guidance favoring the development and intensification of a strong surface low to our southeast which lifts up into the Great Lakes region. At this point, most of the solutions keep the significant precipitation to our east, but if things trend west at all it could become a concern (with snow certainly being a possibility given the forecast profiles across the region).

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 652 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2020

VFR conditions expected at all sites with a slow increase in high clouds overnight through the day Wednesday. Only potential exception is for some pre-dawn ground fog at the WI sites, better chance at KEAU than KRNH. A few showers are possible south of I-94, but nothing which is expected to drop visibility out of VFR range. Winds will become breezy/gusty Wednesday afternoon and evening behind a cold frontal passage, resulting in winds NW 15-20 kt with gusts close to 30kt.

KMSP . Chances for precipitation continue to slowly diminish. Not prudent to remove precip altogether as some small chances remain but have backed off prevailing showers to vicinity showers.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Thu . VFR. Wind WNW 10-15G25kts. Fri . VFR. Chc -SHRA/MVFR. Wind WNW 5-10kts. Sat . VFR. Chc -SHRA/MVFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. MN . None.

UPDATE . JPC SHORT TERM . LONG TERM . AVIATION . JPC


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Minneapolis, Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, MN6 mi25 minN 710.00 miPartly Cloudy57°F35°F44%1006.5 hPa
Downtown Holman Field, MN6 mi25 minNNW 310.00 miFair57°F34°F42%1006.3 hPa
South St. Paul Municipal-Richard E. Flemi, MN8 mi23 minN 410.00 miFair57°F35°F44%1006.4 hPa
Minneapolis / Blaine, MN14 mi23 minN 010.00 miFair52°F35°F54%1006.8 hPa
Minneapolis, Crystal Airport, MN14 mi25 minNNW 510.00 miPartly Cloudy52°F35°F53%1006.4 hPa
Lake Elmo Airport, MN16 mi43 minN 010.00 miFair54°F37°F54%1006.8 hPa
Minneapolis - Flying Cloud Airport, MN18 mi25 minNNW 610.00 miFair57°F36°F45%1005.7 hPa
Minneapolis, Airlake Airport, MN23 mi23 minWNW 310.00 miFair50°F44°F82%1006.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSTP

Wind History from STP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS9SE7S4SE5SE8SE4E9SE10SE3SE3CalmSE33NW10N7Calm53N6CalmW3CalmCalmN3
1 day agoCalmSE3S4SE4S5S5S6SE7SE6SE9SE9SE10SE10SE11SE10SE8SE11SE7SE9SE10SE7SE11SE8SE11
2 days agoSE3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--SE7S12
G17
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G16
S7S8S8S10SE6CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Twin Cities, MN (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Minneapolis, MN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.