Thursday, April22, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Falcon Heights, MN

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1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:13AMSunset 8:08PM Thursday April 22, 2021 8:18 PM CDT (01:18 UTC) Moonrise 1:38PMMoonset 3:28AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Falcon Heights, MN
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location: 44.96, -93.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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FXUS63 KMPX 222323 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 623 PM CDT Thu Apr 22 2021

UPDATE. Issued at 623 PM CDT Thu Apr 22 2021

Updated to include 00Z aviation discussion below.

SHORT TERM. (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 315 PM CDT Thu Apr 22 2021

With strong surface heating today gusty winds have mixed down from higher in the atmosphere. These gusty winds up to around 15 to 25 mph will continue until this evening as the surface begins to cool leading to an inversion in the lower atmosphere reducing our mixing of these higher winds to the surface. This surface heating with dew points in the 20s has lead to minimum RHs this afternoon in the low 20s. These winds and dry conditions have lead to near critical fire weather conditions today. This means that any fires today could spread quickly so it is best not to burn anything this afternoon and evening.

A shortwave trough will move across the Upper Midwest starting tonight. This will bring chances for rain showers across Minnesota and western Wisconsin tomorrow advancing from west to east in the morning and afternoon. These rain showers are not expected to be heavy as we are near seasonal normals for precipitable water values. As the shortwave moves out we should see the showers come to an end from west to east tomorrow afternoon into evening. There could be some additional rain and snow showers tomorrow night behind a passing cold front. Little rain and snow accumulation is expected with this passage. The best chance for snow will be in west central and central Minnesota. Even in this area little to no snow is expected to accumulate and what little does accumulate will melt quickly as we warm up again during the day.

After our warmer day today, tomorrow cooler air is expected thanks to increased cloud cover and light precipitation. We will still we warmer than earlier in the week with high temperatures in the 50s. Tomorrow night temperatures are expected to fall into the 30s behind the cold front with just below freezing temperatures expected in west central and central Minnesota where light snow showers are possible.

LONG TERM. (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 315 PM CDT Thu Apr 22 2021

The long term will start off cool with rain and snow showers this weekend, followed by a a big warm-up for Monday and continued chances for showers, followed by a potentially more significant system for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Saturday morning any lingering rain/snow showers should exit to the east quickly. Surface high pressure builds in leading to clearing skies from west to east during the day. Even with the sunny skies it looks to be a cool day with some weak CAA continuing with northwest flow aloft. Highs on Saturday should range from the mid 40s to lower 50s across the area. Saturday night low temperatures drop into the upper 20s to low 30s, and with high pressure moving off to the south and east return flow develops. A band of WAA precipitation looks to move through the on Sunday. It looks like there could be snow with this band before the column warms and the precipitation turns to rain. Much will depend on the timing as the lows Sunday morning are mainly in the low 30s, but warm into the 40s by noon. It looks like the best chance of accumulating snow would be over the western part of the CWA where the QPF is higher and where the precipitation starts earlier. An inch or so may accumulate in our western counties with little to no accumulation further east. QPF for this first push of WAA ranges from just a couple tenths in our east, to around a third of an inch in our far west. Highs Sunday afternoon will be in the mid 40s to low 50s. Lows Monday morning will be about 10 degrees warmer as the warm up ramps up on Monday with continued H85 WAA another band of showers looks to move through the area early, with a break in precipitation looking likely Monday afternoon/evening. It looks like there will be a fairly steep temperature gradient across the forecast area Monday afternoon. Temperatures could approach 80 near I-90, to 50s and 60s northern area where the clouds and rain look to hang around longer.

Tuesday and Wednesday will feature a typical spring low pressure system tracking across the plains and into the midwest. The deterministic models have come into better agreement of a heavy band of deformation precipitation setting up somewhere in our CWA. The GFS sets up this band through the Metro area, while the Euro has it southeast of the Cities. An inch or more of precipitation looks like a good bet wherever this band ends up. Thunder is also possible Tuesday, but severe weather looks unlikely at this point, but it does bear watching, especially for the southeastern CWA. Tuesday will again feature quite a spread in temperatures with 50s northwest and 70s south and east. It looks like we will finally see the sun again Thursday as high pressure builds in behind the departing system.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 623 PM CDT Thu Apr 22 2021

Surface and upper troughs to our west will move east through the period. The main impact will be the arrival of lower ceilings late tonight which will linger for much of the day on Friday as the surface trough slowly moves through the region. Some showers are also expected, mainly late tonight into Friday morning, but doesn't look like they will have a significant impact on visibilities.

KMSP . Main concern is lower ceilings from around 10Z through much of the day Friday. Confidence in MVFR is high, but there isn't as much confidence on the occurrence and duration of the IFR conditions. Stayed somewhat optimistic for now, in line with a consensus of the short range guidance.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Friday overnight . MVFR expected, IFR possible. Variable wind less than 5 kt becoming northwest 5 to 10 kt. Saturday . MVFR expected early Northwest wind around 10 kt. Saturday night . VFR. Variable wind 5 kt or less. Sunday . MVFR possible late. Southeast wind 5 to 15 kt. Sunday night . MVFR possible. Southeast wind 10 to 20 kt. Monday . MVFR possible. Southeast wind 10 to 20 kt.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MN . None. WI . None.

UPDATE . SHORT TERM . NDC LONG TERM . CEO AVIATION .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Minneapolis, Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, MN6 mi25 minSW 410.00 miA Few Clouds60°F19°F20%1012.1 hPa
Downtown Holman Field, MN6 mi25 minWSW 710.00 miFair60°F20°F21%1011.9 hPa
South St. Paul Municipal-Richard E. Flemi, MN8 mi23 minSSW 510.00 miFair58°F20°F23%1011.8 hPa
Minneapolis / Blaine, MN14 mi93 minSSW 12 G 1810.00 miPartly Cloudy63°F19°F19%1011.5 hPa
Minneapolis, Crystal Airport, MN14 mi25 minSW 610.00 miFair59°F20°F22%1011.6 hPa
Lake Elmo Airport, MN16 mi30 minSW 610.00 miFair57°F21°F25%1012.2 hPa
Minneapolis - Flying Cloud Airport, MN18 mi25 minSW 510.00 miFair57°F20°F24%1011.8 hPa
Minneapolis, Airlake Airport, MN23 mi23 minN 010.00 miFair55°F18°F23%1012.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSTP

Wind History from STP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmS4S4SE5SE4SE4SE4SE4SE6SE6SE6W5W6W10W10
G18
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1 day agoN7NW5NW5NW5NW4NW3NW5NW6N7NW6NW7N8NW10NW11NW7
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2 days agoNW7NW5NW6NW4NW3W5NW8NW8NW7N6N5N4N3N7N9
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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