Sunrise 5:16 AM   Sunset 8:17 PM Moonrise 5:32 PM   Moonset 3:36 AM

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LMZ364 Expires:202405210315;;556301 Fzus63 Kmkx 201939 Glflm
open lake forecast for lake michigan national weather service milwaukee/sullivan wi 239 pm cdt Mon may 20 2024
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan.
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.
Synopsis -
southeast winds will turn southwesterly for a time late this afternoon over the southern third of the lake, as a compact area of low pressure averaging 29.8 inches moves through the area. Winds then turn westerly tonight.
winds will turn more south to southeasterly again Tuesday. Breezy southerly winds are expected as a deepening low pressure around 29.4 inches approaches the upper great lakes region and tracks northeast into Wednesday. There looks to be periods of Thunderstorms over the lake, especially southern portions Monday through Wednesday morning.
lmz261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868-210315- lake michigan from seul choix point to rock island passage 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan south of a line from seul choix point to the mackinac bridge and north of a line from charlevoix mi to south fox island 5 nm offshore- lake michigan from charlevoix to point betsie mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from point betsie to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from rock island passage to sturgeon bay wi- lake michigan from sturgeon bay to two rivers wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from two rivers to sheboygan wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from pentwater to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 239 pm cdt Mon may 20 2024
sheboygan wi to pentwater mi north - .
Tonight - Northeast winds 10 to 20 kt diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late this evening, then becoming north after midnight diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late. Chance of rain showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms this evening. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Tuesday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 kt becoming east. Chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Tuesday night - East winds 10 to 20 kt becoming southeast to 30 kt late in the evening, then becoming south after midnight becoming south to 30 kt late. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 ft building to 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft. Wednesday - Southwest winds to 30 kt. Waves 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft. Wednesday night - Southwest winds to 30 kt diminishing to 15 to 25 kt. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft. Thursday - Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Thursday night - West winds 10 to 20 kt veering to north 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Friday - Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt becoming east 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Saturday - Southeast winds 10 to 20 kt. Chance of showers. Waves 2 to 4 ft.

LMZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 202300 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 700 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- An isolated strong to marginally severe storm or two possible through this evening.

- Better chance for strong to severe storms with a potential squall line Tuesday night in advance of a surface cold front.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 245 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Marginal instability/winds aloft in advance of a short wave evident on water vapor imagery over southern Illinois tonight.
An area of showers and embedded thunderstorms is expected to progress across northern Michigan through the evening and the early overnight hours. Severe potential appears to be on the low side from the combination of the loss of daytime heating, limited moisture and marginal instability (just a few hundred J/kg of mixed layer cape and 0-6 km bulk shear of 30-35 knots).
Although not expected, can not totally rule out the possibility of an isolated severe storm or two with damaging winds and large hail the primary threats.

A break in the action is then expected late tonight into much of the daylight hours of Tuesday. Can not rule out an instability driven pop up shower or storm Tuesday afternoon (mainly across northeast lower). A bigger threat for severe storms arrives Tuesday night (see long term forecast discussion below).

Muggy tonight with lows in the 50s to near 60. Highs Tuesday ranging from the low and mid 70s north to the low and mid 80s south.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 245 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

A digging trough and its associated surface low is expected to track into the Midwest resulting in an influx of deep moisture to the area. This will be enough forcing to push a warm front, located in southern Michigan, northward into the area, leading to rain showers and possible strong to severe thunderstorms for late Tuesday/ Tuesday night. As the aforementioned surface low tracks out of the region, cooler air will slowly wrap around the low and be pushed into Northern Michigan. As such, temperatures will be warmer to start off the week with daytime highs in the 70s, before more seasonable temperatures set in for later in the week.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:

- Tuesday Night: A digging trough and its associated surface low will track into the western portion of Lake Superior. The aforementioned low will deepen and strengthen as it tracks to the Lake. Along the way, strong southerly winds will push a front north into the APX footprint and provide enough lift to support strong to severe thunderstorms for late Tuesday/ Tuesday night. A deep moisture fetch is had with this setup as southerly winds draw ample moisture in from the Gulf. One thing we will have to watch is if any potential activity downstate materializes and cuts off the deep moisture fetch, essentially hindering the chances of severe weather.
With atmospheric conditions being primed for this event, another question will be if the nocturnal nature of the frontal passage will disrupt initiation along the front. As stated by the previous forecaster, the current thinking of linear mode storms (squall line / MCS) is still expected, making the main threat with this event being strong winds. However, a strong low-level jet will take full advantage of this event to help produce strong shear and opens the door for some storms capable of producing hail in stronger updrafts within the line. A quick spin-up tornado along the line as it surges northeastward into northern Michigan will also be possible and cannot be ruled out with ample shear, moisture, and instability/lift? available. SPC (Storm Prediction Center) continues to have a Slight Risk (2/5) across much of northern lower Michigan and Marginal Risk (1/5) elsewhere. Continue to monitor the latest forecast and be sure to have multiple ways of receiving weather alerts to ensure you are weather aware.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 700 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Compact area of low pressure will continue to track eastward out of Wisconsin and thru Lake Michigan and Lower Michigan tonight.
Widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms will impact much of Northern Lower Michigan tonight as this system moves thru our area. Eastern Upper Michigan will remain along the northern periphery of deep moisture and better lift from this system.
Precip chances will temporarily end late tonight into Tuesday...
before better chances of convection redevelop Tuesday night.
Prevailing conditions will remain VFR this evening...dropping to MVFR/IFR at times with in heavier showers/storms. Conditions will drop to MVFR later tonight...before improving to VFR on Tuesday during our break in the action. Mainly light/variable winds tonight will lend to lake breeze development on Tuesday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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