Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Suttons Bay, MI

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 256 PM EST Tue Jan 14 2025

Current Overview / Pattern Synopsis:

Longwave troughing over eastern North America will continue to slowly drift eastward, maintaining a feed of arctic air into the upper Great Lakes. Current flow has turned more northerly across the eastern Yoop in the wake of a trough axis passage, and has shifted more WNW in northern lower. This northerly wind shift and uptick in forcing should result in ongoing lake effect snow showers over Antrim and Charlevoix counties to shift focus toward the Grand Traverse Bay region by this evening... and increase in organization and intensity. Winds then back continually with time tonight, with lake effect bands responding as such. Shortwave ridging ahead of another approaching clipper will stunt lake effect to just some lingering disorganized flurries and showers through the day tomorrow, with flow turning more SW ahead of the system.

Forecast Details:

Lake effect snowfall is anticipated to continue through much of the forecast period... wavering with intensity this afternoon through tonight before continually trending less intense / organized Wednesday. Lake effect activity over Antrim and Charlevoix had been modest at best until about the last hour or two, as the trough axis has indeed moved into the region, resulting in activity really blossoming, and even spreading eastward into Otsego, Montmorency, and Crawford counties. The same is expected to occur in the Grand Traverse Bay region south to Manistee over the course of the next couple hours, with some snow also probably working its way into Wexford County and perhaps as far east as the Lake City area.
Narrative changes a little this evening as the aforementioned troughing axis clears the region, flipping winds more NNW and increasing lift across the region. Result will be organizing lake effect snows stretching from the US 131 corridor and west... and with a Lake Superior tap, this activity could locally be heavy. What may be a limiting factor in this setup is that winds won't entirely lock into place, perhaps preventing one particular spot from getting blasted with snowfall. With winds largely expected to back over the course of the night, lake effect snows will slowly drift back into the westerly flow belts by daybreak Wednesday before tapering in intensity through the day as winds turn more SW and activity begins to exclusively favor the Leelanau to Manistee lakeshores, along with Emmet and the Straits.

As far as snowfall goes, additional accumulations will generally be in the order of 2-5", with perhaps some spots seeing 6"+ by the time we get to Wednesday morning. The most prone spots for these locally higher amounts will be the Antrim / Kalkaska county area, with small (but non-zero) potential for the highest hills in Leelanau and Benzie (spots like Lake Ann, Thompsonville, Maple City, etc.) to snag these locally higher totals as well. As such, some hazardous travel will be possible in heavier periods of snow, along with a prevalence of snow covered roads considering temperatures are cold enough to hinder the effectiveness of road treatments. With this being said, will retain headlines as is... keeping a Winter Weather Advisory in effect for Benzie, Leelanau, Grand Traverse, Kalkaska, and Antrim counties in effect through 12z / 7am Wednesday morning.
Additional accumulations on Wednesday will be limited to 2" or less across the snowbelts, with most spots outside of the Straits and south of Sleeping Bear on Lake Michigan likely becoming snow free by the early afternoon hours.

Elsewhere, expecting dry and pretty chilly conditions to linger...
subzero to single digit wind chills tonight moderate into the upper single digits Wednesday. Lows tonight in the teens, highs Wednesday in the lower 20s
X factor will be in the Sault tonight
which has potential for a NNE drainage flow from unmoderated arctic air prevalent across Ontario that from a conceptual standpoint, could send temperatures well below zero with clearing skies. Models are bearish on this trend at this time, so will not make that change at this juncture.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 256 PM EST Tue Jan 14 2025

Pattern Forecast: Low amplitude mid-level ridging is expected to be situated over the eastern Great Lakes to start the forecast period Wednesday evening -- in advance of a mid-level wave set to drop across the region late Wednesday night into Thursday. Attendant low pressure treks by to our north with associated cold/occluded front crossing west to east locally. Brief "warm up" Friday before very cold air (by far the coldest of the season thus far) begins to intrude over the eastern half of the CONUS this weekend into next week.

Forecast Details: By Wednesday night, focus will be set on an incoming clipper system through Thursday. Renewed slug of moisture and increasing ascent aloft should prove to be enough for widespread light snow across much of northern Michigan. Highest accumulations expected near Lake Michigan where initial southwest flow lake enhancement Wednesday night veers more west-northwesterly for Thursday. Latest trends support some localized 2-4" amounts near and west of the US-131 corridor over that 24 hour period from 00z Thu - 00z Fri.

A brief "warm up" on tap for Friday with high temps favored in the mid-30s to near 30 degrees area-wide. This won't last long, however, as another clipper trekking to our north will drive renewed snow shower chances Friday night - Saturday with very cold air to follow for the remainder of the weekend into next week with a connection all the way to Siberia. Latest trends continue to support this being the coldest air of the season thus far with high temperatures by Monday struggling to rise above the single digits. Accompanying this cold will be periods of lake effect snow showers -- with such cold temperatures likely support small flake size and periods of significantly reduced visibility with any wind/blowing snow.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 600 PM EST Tue Jan 14 2025

N/NW flow lake effect snow showers will continue to target our typical snowbelt areas for the most persistent and heaviest snow showers tonight. Low level winds will back to the west and eventually SW on Wednesday in advance of an approaching low pressure system...shifting focus of lake effect snow showers northward to the Tip of the Mitt and the Straits area for Wednesday
Prevailing conditions will remain low VFR/MVFR
with conditions dropping to IFR within heavier snow showers.
Surface winds will remain from the NW at 10 to 15 kts tonight...
shifting to the SW on Wednesday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for MIZ020- 021-025>027.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for LHZ345>349.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for LMZ323-341- 342-344>346.