NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 939 Pm Est Sat Dec 9 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through Sunday evening...
Overnight..Southwest wind 15 to 25 knots becoming northwest early in the morning. Waves 2 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight.
Sunday..Northwest wind 15 to 25 knots. Chance of snow showers and slight chance of showers. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Sunday night..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Monday..West wind 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.

LMZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 100445 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1145 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

UPDATE
Issued at 949 EST Sat Dec 9 2023

Deep low pressure center continues to lift northward thru SE Ontario toward James Bay late this evening. Closed upper low center is moving thru Wisconsin toward our CWA...generating an area of showers ahead of it. Temps across much of our CWA are still in the upper 30s to lower 40s...so much of this shower activity is reaching the ground in liquid form attm. This should change overnight as colder air arrives behind this system...
with rain showers becoming increasingly mixed with snow and eventually changing over to mainly snow. Expect the lakes will get involved as over-lake instability strengthens with the arrival of colder air...especially on Sunday as low level flow shifts to the NW and targets out typical snowbelt areas for greatest chances of snow. New snow accumulation overnight will be minor...well under an inch. Low temps will fall into the low to mid 30s.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
Gusty Winds and Turning Colder...

High Impact Weather...Minimal once winds diminish this evening.
Advisory or near Advisory level wind gusts may cause a few power outages into early evening.

Complex upper-level troffing currently moving through/impacting the western Great Lakes and upper Midwest. A broad southern stream long-wave trof is over much of the eastern 2/3 of the U.S. with a weaker northern stream wave moving across northern Canada. Between these mean trof axes is a cutoff low over the upper Midwest, and a short wave of interest ejecting northeast from the southern stream trof across northern Michigan. A surface low associated with this short wave is heading northeast out of northern Lake Michigan an the moment with an associated cold front curving along the eastern edge of lower Michigan.

Rain showers in the vicinity of the surface low should lift northeast out of the forecast area within the next few hours, while the showers along the cold front will be pushing into Lake Huron very soon. Once the rain moves out of the area, there should be a lull in the precipitation threat for much of the first half of the night.

The upper-level low over the upper Midwest is forecast to arrive after midnight tonight, accompanied by a secondary cold front. A period of rain/snow mix and eventually all snow will accompany the passage of these features. The low-level flow turns northwesterly in the wake of the secondary cold front, and low-level temperatures cool sufficiently to produce over-lake instability. However, little/no snow accumulation is expected tonight, with better chances for snow accumulation in northwest flow snow belts expected to hold off until the daytime hours Sunday.

Winds, while gusty, have largely stayed below Wind Advisory criteria. However, there have been scattered Advisory level gusts, and associated power outages within a few hours of the first cold frontal passage. For this reason, plan to keep ongoing Wind Advisory in effect through its early evening expiration time.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/
Lake Effect Snow Showers...

High Impact Weather...Accumulating Snow in the Snowbelts.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Snow accumulations.

Fairly steady cold air advection Sunday into Sunday night which will activate the lake effect snow machine (though lake/850 mb delta ts are only in the modest mid teens range). The flow is primarily northwest so expect lake effect bands to form across the three big lakes. Parts of northwest lower should see a long fetch due to an expected double connection off of Lake Superior and Lake Michigan.
Looking at model soundings however indicates that moisture will be fairly shallow with inversion heights in the 3000-4000 feet range.
The long fetch length could still produce 1 to 2 inches of snow with locally up to 3 inches during the day Sunday in favored areas of northwest lower with similar amounts again possible Sunday night.
Could see a few inches in total across western sections of Chippewa and Mackinac counties as well. It's borderline but can't rule out a few areas needing winter weather advisories. Activity could linger into Monday morning followed by a break for Monday afternoon and evening as over lake instability wanes due to warm air advection.

Another shot of colder air advects in Tuesday into Tuesday night behind an Alberta Clipper which passes by to our north late Monday night. Synoptic (system) snow is expected to be limited to eastern upper and far northern lower where around an inch of accumulation is possible late Monday night into early Tuesday. The colder air following will increase over lake instability once again leading to more snow showers Tuesday (though moisture looks even more limited).
The best chances for accumulating snow appears to be confined across eastern upper.

Temperatures will definitely feel cooler but still above normal.
Highs in the 30s with lows in the 20s. It will be brisk at times due to gusty winds, especially on Tuesday.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Lingering Lake Effect then Another Warming Trend...

Lake effect snow showers are expected to linger Tuesday night into perhaps early Wednesday. Appreciably warmer air then advects into the region Wednesday into Thursday. A surface cold front crosses the region Friday with cooler (but not cold) air to follow into early next weekend. All in all fairly benign weather is expected during the long term.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
Deep low pressure will quickly lift NE to James Bay overnight...as a closed upper low pivots thru the Western Great Lakes overnight and into the Eastern Great Lakes on Sunday. Another wave of precip will move thru Northern Michigan overnight associated with the upper low...but precip type will be a mix of rain and snow showers. Precip type will switch to mainly snow showers late tonight thru Sunday as colder air arrives in the wake of the upper low. This colder air will increase over-lake instability...producing scattered to numerous lake effect snow showers Sunday and Sunday night. Prevailing conditions will remain MVFR thru the 24 hour forecast period. Surface winds will remain from the W/SW at 10 to 20 kts with some higher gusts overnight...shifting to the NW on Sunday.

MARINE
Small Craft Advisory conditions will be seen into Sunday as winds turn to the northwest. Scattered rain showers this evening will transition to northwest flow snow belt lake effect snow heading into Sunday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for LHZ345>349.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for LSZ321-322.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Gaylord, MI,