Saturday, January25, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Glen Arbor, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 4:51PM Saturday January 25, 2020 8:58 AM CST (14:58 UTC) Moonrise 8:57AMMoonset 6:30PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ364 Expires:202001251630;;482398 Fzus63 Kmkx 250854 Glflm Open Lake Forecast For Lake Michigan National Weather Service Milwaukee/sullivan Wi 254 Am Cst Sat Jan 25 2020 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan. Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10% Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered.
Synopsis.. Low pressure of 29.8 inches over southern lake michigan will deepen to 29.7 inches as it shifts northeast into northern lake huron today. East to northeast winds will prevail over the northern half of the lake tonight with southwest to south winds south. Winds will eventually shift to the northwest to west tonight into Sunday morning as the low continues to move northeast into ontario. Quiet conditions are then expected to continue into next week. && lmz261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868-251630- lake michigan from seul choix point to rock island passage 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan south of a line from seul choix point to the mackinac bridge and north of a line from charlevoix mi to south fox island 5 nm offshore- lake michigan from charlevoix to point betsie mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from point betsie to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from rock island passage to sturgeon bay wi- lake michigan from sturgeon bay to two rivers wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from two rivers to sheboygan wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from pentwater to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 254 am cst Sat jan 25 2020 sheboygan wi to pentwater mi north...
Today..Southeast winds 10 to 15 kt backing to northwest. Patchy fog. Slight chance of rain. Waves 1 to 3 ft subsiding to 1 to 2 ft.
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt increasing to 15 to 25 kt. Patchy fog in the evening. Slight chance of rain in the evening, then chance of rain, snow and slight chance of light freezing rain overnight. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Sunday..Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt. Patchy fog in the morning. Chance of rain and snow in the morning. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming north. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft.
Monday..North winds 10 to 20 kt diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Monday night..North winds 10 to 20 kt diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Tuesday..North winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wednesday..East winds 10 to 15 kt becoming northeast 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
LMZ364


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Glen Arbor, MI
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location: 45.02, -86.12     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 251051 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 551 AM EST Sat Jan 25 2020

UPDATE. Issued at 541 AM EST Sat Jan 25 2020

Areas of dense fog have developed from parts of the I-75 corridor eastward toward Lake Huron. Because of this, I issued an SPS and also posted a graphic to social media. The visibilities should gradually improve this morning, although we will be stuck with the lower clouds and drizzle throughout the day.

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 305 AM EST Sat Jan 25 2020

. Widespread fog today .

High impact weather potential: Overall low but widespread fog today into early tonight could create some travel impacts. Also pockets of light snow and areas of freezing drizzle possible later tonight could create some travel impacts.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: Upper low over northern Indiana early this morning with waves of light precipitation rotating around the periphery of the circulation and across northern Michigan. In fact, earlier saw some convective elements on the leading edge of the mid level dry slot, leading to some quick bursts of heavier snow. Upper low will meander across southern Michigan today with a mid level dry slot rotating across northern Michigan. This will likely bring much of the precipitation to an end, leaving low level moisture with drizzle/widespread fog. Cold air advection gradually develops later tonight as the upper/surface low push east and colder air slowly wraps back into the area.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Mainly precipitation type questions. Also precipitation amounts tonight as wrap around moisture rotates back into the area with the colder air.

Northern Michigan will largely be in "no man's land" for much of today with regard to precipitation/forcing with the surface low almost directly overhead and forecast soundings showing lots of low level moisture but limited saturation above the -10 isotherm (so limited ice nucleation). This will result in a rather dreary day with low clouds, areas of drizzle and widespread fog (and possibly a few snow flakes over eastern/northern areas), and temperatures in the middle to upper 30s.

Tonight, colder air slowly gets drawn back into the area behind the departing low and deeper moisture begins to rotate back into the area - especially after midnight. Still a difficult precipitation type forecast as many of the forecast soundings struggle to get saturation to the -10c isotherm. I will transition precipitation over to mainly light snow over eastern upper and northeast lower later tonight, with a light wintry mix possible elsewhere. Confidence not very high in how this will evolve but precipitation amounts should be fairly light and potential impacts relatively low. Temperatures quite mild for January, with lows in the lower to middle 30s (warmer than our average daytime highs).

SHORT TERM. (Sunday through Monday) Issued at 305 AM EST Sat Jan 25 2020

. What will the P-type be? Let's Spin the Wheel .

High Impact Weather Potential . More mixed snow/rain/drizzle/sleet, etc. leading to slippery roads

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast . The models have been having an issue with any clear picture of the precipitation types over the last day or so. As I came into the office tonight, was not expecting the convectivey look of the radar, and while our amounts of snow will be okay, the convective cells have been having a habit of dropping 0.5" to 1.0" in 20 or 30 minutes and then we flurry with freezing drizzle mixing in. So as this system, which by 12z/Sun will be east of the Upper Great Lakes, continues to move east, the expectation is for the p-type to go to all snow as the moisture is closer to saturated and the temperatures remain below freezing in the soundings through 00z/Mon. After 00z/Mon, the colder air is filtering into the region, but 850 mb temperatures are around -8c. Water temperatures are showing +4C. So lake enhanced snow with some banding would be possible. With the inversions around 3000ft, think that the snow potential will be on the light side. Monday, the 850 mb temperatures continue to be marginally LES with the moisture drying out in the 850-700 mb layer. The moisture drying out looks like the precipitation would end by the end of the day and continue overnight.

Primary Forecast Concerns . The concern will be leading up to the Lake Enhanced snow as the moisture fills back in. With the convective looking radar, and the dry slot moving into the region, currently, it will depend on the next 24 hours, if the moisture will solidify and we get back into a more snow type pattern, rather than this "spin the wheel to see what we get" type of pattern. The main time with this will be Sunday morning, until the low moves enough east and the colder 850 mb air begins to move in.

LONG TERM. (Monday night through Friday) Issued at 305 AM EST Sat Jan 25 2020

The models are in better agreement Tuesday as a weak 500 mb shortwave trough moves through the region. 850 mb temperatures look to maybe get cold enough in the wake of the wave to get some LES bands to form. Wednesday remains dry as most of the energy looks to go south of the forecast area. could snow fall in NW Lower, maybe, but likely will remain dry through the day and night. Thursday, the models again diverge on day 5 as the ECMWF has an open wave beginning to move into the forecast area, versus the GFS digging cut off low at 500 mb bringing snow into Wisconsin, and eventually us by Friday morning. Friday, on the ECMWF the open wave (500 mb) skirts south along with most of the precipitation. The GFS has an elongated trough that continues precipitation through Saturday morning.

So for the most part, the temperatures remain mild for this time of year, with minimal impacting systems.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) Issued at 541 AM EST Sat Jan 25 2020

. Widespread LIFR and IFR Cigs the next 24 hours .

A large area of low pressure will be centered almost directly over northern Michigan today. This will result in a rather stagnant airmass across the area, with lots of low level moisture and weak winds. Widespread LIFR and IFR cigs will continue for much of the next 24 hours, along with areas of fog and drizzle. Winds will shift to the west late tonight into Sunday morning on the backside of the departing low pressure area, which should begin to gradually improve cigs/vsbys. This will also begin to pull cooler air in from the west, changing over lingering drizzle to light snow. There is an outside chance of some freezing drizzle late tonight into Sunday morning but the chance was not large enough to include in the TAF.

MARINE. Issued at 305 AM EST Sat Jan 25 2020

Low pressure will slide across the area through tonight, with winds shifting from east to west. Fog may be an issue near the coasts as a relatively warm, moist airmass moves across northern Michigan. A tightening pressure gradient may bring SCA conditions to the lakes late tonight into Sunday and a SCA may be needed for at least parts of the area during this time. Relatively quiet weather conditions expected for much of this upcoming week with no big storms on the horizon.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . NONE. LM . NONE. LS . NONE.

UPDATE . JK NEAR TERM . JK SHORT TERM . JL LONG TERM . JL AVIATION . JK MARINE . JK


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 33 mi78 min Calm G 2.9 35°F 1009.1 hPa
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 49 mi78 min NW 4.1 G 6 33°F 1008.1 hPa
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 50 mi78 min NNE 5.1 G 8 33°F 1008.5 hPa

Wind History for Port Inland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI28 mi63 minN 00.50 miFog33°F32°F97%1008.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFKS

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)
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E8E5E5E5SE10E3E4E6NE6E3E3E3NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoSE5SE5SE4SE5E5SE3E4CalmE3E5E4E3SE3E3CalmE5E5NE7E3E4E3E4E3E6
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.