Saturday, January16, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Glen Arbor, MI

Version 3.4
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8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 4:41PM Saturday January 16, 2021 3:16 AM CST (09:16 UTC) Moonrise 10:44AMMoonset 9:27PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ364 Expires:202101161630;;995933 Fzus63 Kmkx 160907 Glflm Open Lake Forecast For Lake Michigan National Weather Service Milwaukee/sullivan Wi 307 Am Cst Sat Jan 16 2021 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan. Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10% Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered.
Synopsis.. Low pressure around 29.6 inches lingering across central lake michigan will gradually shift east through the today. As the low slowly moves east, breezy northerly winds will continue to spread southward this morning and then eventually become more northwesterly later this afternoon/evening. The low will continue to slowly push east with lighter northwesterly winds for Sunday. Winds will continue to shift to the west then southwest early next week as high pressure is expected to build into the region. && lmz261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868-161630- lake michigan from seul choix point to rock island passage 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan south of a line from seul choix point to the mackinac bridge and north of a line from charlevoix mi to south fox island 5 nm offshore- lake michigan from charlevoix to point betsie mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from point betsie to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from rock island passage to sturgeon bay wi- lake michigan from sturgeon bay to two rivers wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from two rivers to sheboygan wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from pentwater to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 307 am cst Sat jan 16 2021 sheboygan wi to pentwater mi north...
Today..North winds 15 to 25 kt. Chance of rain and snow. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Tonight..North winds 15 to 25 kt becoming northwest 10 to 20 kt. Chance of rain, slight chance of snow with a chance of light freezing rain. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Sunday..North winds 10 to 20 kt. Chance of snow and rain. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Sunday night..North winds 10 to 20 kt diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Monday..North winds 10 to 15 kt becoming northwest. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Monday night..West winds 10 to 20 kt becoming northwest. Chance of snow showers. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt. Chance of snow showers. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt increasing to gales to 35 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft building to 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft.
LMZ364


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Glen Arbor, MI
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location: 45.02, -86.12     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 160846 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 346 AM EST Sat Jan 16 2021

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 346 AM EST Sat Jan 16 2021

. Light snow/minor accumulations through tonight .

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal. Light snow accumulations may lead to slick spots.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Overnight composite analysis reveals a fairly amplified flow pattern across NOAM with strong ridging along the Pacific coast feeding into a deep stacked/occluded low over the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes region. Elongated surface low is stretched across northern Lower Michigan with an occluded boundary that arcs through the eastern lakes region. Weakening deformation forced precip axis arcs westward through the Great Lakes and back into Wisconsin. Precip is mostly snow across the forecast area at this juncture, although perhaps still a bit mixy in some coastal areas.

Stacked low will migrate into the eastern lakes/New York state region today and into New England tonight . with low level troughing lingering back through the western Great Lakes. Large scale deformation forced precip gradually diminishes through today. But a slow cooling trend through Sunday brings some lake effect snow potential.

Details: As mentioned above, larger scale deformation forced precip weakens through the day . a process already underway per APX radar trends. But some light snow, or mixed rain/snow/drizzle will continue across mainly the northern and western parts of the forecast area today with only minor additional accumulations anticipated.

Meanwhile, increasing northerly flow will slowly wrap colder air into the region later today/tonight and into Sunday. Although not impressive, this will gin up some N/NW lake induced snow showers tonight into Sunday, but again with only minor snow accumulations anticipated.

SHORT TERM. (Sunday through Monday) Issued at 346 AM EST Sat Jan 16 2021

High impact weather potential: Minimal, despite light lake effect snow showers, primarily across north-northwest flow snow belts.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: Our well-advertised area of low pressure that continues to spin nearby early this morning is expected to continue to be positioned well to our east by the start of the forecast period Sunday morning. Broad troughing is expected to be left in its wake across the eastern half of the CONUS through the upcoming weekend with an occasional embedded shortwave rippling through the larger scale flow. While cooler temperatures will certainly be the rule, limited deep moisture/synoptic support, combined with only marginal over-lake instability is expected to be enough to limit overall lake effect snow showers coverage both Sunday and Monday.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Lake effect PoPs/snow amounts Sunday through Monday.

Weak cold air advection is expected to largely be in place across northern Michigan Sunday through Monday with H8 temperatures ranging from the -7 to -10 C through this time frame leading to delta Ts around 12-15 C. Given this marginal over-lake instability, weak flow (1000-850 mb winds generally AOB 10 kts), increasingly dry mid-upper levels and inversion heights sub 4 kft, not expecting any high impact lake effect snow across the forecast area. However, that being said, do expected that flakes will continue to fly off and on over this 48 hour stretch - primarily near and west of the GTV Bay region given progged north-northwesterly flow. Perhaps this activity is briefly enhanced late Sunday night/early Monday morning, but again with limited impact given the possible window for enhancement associated with a quick-moving mid-level perturbation looks really small. Accumulations across those far western locales likely to be an inch or less both Sunday and again Monday.

None the less, colder (more normal) temperatures are expected to be the rule, as high temperatures both Sunday and Monday range from the mid 20s to near 30 degrees. Sunday night lows expected to range from the low teens across eastern upper to the upper teens and low 20s much of northern lower (few degrees warmer near and west of GTV Bay region due to lake effect clouds/snow showers).

LONG TERM. (Monday night through Friday) Issued at 346 AM EST Sat Jan 16 2021

High impact weather potential: Possible accumulating lake effect snow during the Tuesday - Wednesday time frame.

Extended guidance remains in somewhat decent agreement that somewhat cooler air aloft with seep into the region during the Tuesday - Wednesday time frame in conjunction with a shortwave that's progged to dive south from Alberta/Manitoba into the northern plains before trekking across the Great Lakes. This period looks like the next potential for at least a shot at some accumulating lake effect snow, but lots of details remain uncertain, especially around duration and intensity of snow, along with wind direction determining that hardest hit locations. Certainly worth monitoring as we head through the weekend as the details and potential impacts become more clear.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) Issued at 1145 PM EST Fri Jan 15 2021

Low pressure centered over central Illinois will track eastward thru Indiana and Ohio overnight thru Saturday . reaching New England by late Saturday night. Widespread light snow will continue to impact much of Northern Lower Michigan overnight into Saturday thanks to deep moisture wrapping around the northern side of this strong system. Overall conditions will remain IFR for the next 24 hours. Widespread light snow will slowly diminish to scattered snow showers Saturday afternoon into Saturday night as deep moisture and lift begin to pull away from our area. Light and variable winds overnight will become NW by Saturday afternoon in the wake of the departing low.

MARINE. Issued at 346 AM EST Sat Jan 16 2021

North to northwesterly flow develops and increases later today into tonight and may bring some low end small craft advisory conditions to parts of the Great Lakes. Thus, I may hoist a small craft advisory for a few marine zones . mainly tonight through Sunday morning.

Otherwise, overall quiet weather continues across the Great Lakes, at least by mid January standards.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . NONE. LM . NONE. LS . NONE.

NEAR TERM . BA SHORT TERM . MG LONG TERM . MG AVIATION . MR MARINE . BA


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 33 mi36 min E 4.1 G 7 39°F 1001 hPa
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 49 mi36 min NNW 15 G 18 34°F 1002 hPa
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 50 mi36 min N 5.1 G 8.9 33°F

Wind History for Port Inland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI28 mi21 minN 02.50 miLight Snow33°F31°F92%999.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFKS

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE6E6E6E4E4E4E3E4CalmE5NE3NE3CalmNE3E3E4CalmE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Ground Weather Radar Station




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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.