Thursday, July29, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Glen Arbor, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:34AMSunset 8:19PM Thursday July 29, 2021 4:59 AM CDT (09:59 UTC) Moonrise 11:20PMMoonset 11:29AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ364 Expires:202107291515;;633732 Fzus63 Kmkx 290900 Glflm Open Lake Forecast For Lake Michigan National Weather Service Milwaukee/sullivan Wi 400 Am Cdt Thu Jul 29 2021 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan. Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10% Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered.
Synopsis.. A cold front will move south across lake michigan this morning. Breezy north winds are expected and will last through tonight. High pressure of 30.1 inches will then move across the lake Friday afternoon. The high will move south while weak low pressure tracks from the northern great lakes to the lower great lakes for the weekend. Modest southwest winds will develop over lake michigan for Friday night into Saturday, followed by another cold front bringing breezy northerly winds for Saturday night and Sunday. && lmz261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868-291515- lake michigan from seul choix point to rock island passage 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan south of a line from seul choix point to the mackinac bridge and north of a line from charlevoix mi to south fox island 5 nm offshore- lake michigan from charlevoix to point betsie mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from point betsie to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from rock island passage to sturgeon bay wi- lake michigan from sturgeon bay to two rivers wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from two rivers to sheboygan wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from pentwater to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 400 am cdt Thu jul 29 2021 sheboygan wi to pentwater mi north...
Today..Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt becoming north to 30 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Tonight..North winds to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Friday..North winds 10 to 20 kt becoming northwest 10 to 15 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft.
Friday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt increasing to 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft building to 1 to 3 ft.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming west. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Saturday night..North winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 2 to 4 ft.
Sunday..North winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Monday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt becoming west. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
LMZ364


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Glen Arbor, MI
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location: 45.02, -86.12     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 290905 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 505 AM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 220 AM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

Impactful weather: Showers and embedded thunderstorms ending quickly, then becoming gusty with the start of cooling and less humid.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Upper level troughing was sliding out over the Atlantic ocean early this morning, while broad ridging continues to engulf most of the western half of the conus. Nrn Michigan remains in between, still, with upper level NW flow in place. A shortwave trough was barreling through the region attm, with latest RUC analysis suggesting, and is well-verified based on latest satellite/regional reflectivity loops, that one vort max and associated sfc trough was pushing through eastern upper attm. This vort/MCV produced the late evening into the overnight hours stratiform rain/showers with occasional rumbles of thunder. The main action has been out west, where the shortwave's deep layer -divQ was creating more magic, along and just north of a warm front, extending from sfc low pressure in NW/nrn WI back through mid Lake Michigan and across areas in and around M-55. While our night has been rather uneventful, out west in WI, LLJ and upper jet dynamics and DPVA have been working with a much more favorable environment conducive for strong convection, which has been resulting in discrete supercells and developing QLCS signatures with bowing segments/mesovortices, owing to 0-3km shear vectors a bit more orthogonal to reflectivity structures. Hence, tornadoes and damaging winds were much more common out there. Much of this convection was propagating SE/S along the main theta-e and instability gradient. This led to more and more confidence in a much less severe weather/flooding threat for in these here parts. However, another MCV has been suggested to cross mid Lake Michigan prior to daybreak, which could still lead to some convective initiation over the next few hours along and just north of the frontal zone, possibly allowing for additional convective activity. Gotta believe our chance for severe weather and potential flooding are more than on a downturn, maybe more a free-fall, but we're obviously watching latest radar trends closely.

The above sentiments result in the thinking of a more rapid eastward push of showers and mostly non-severe storms into today, with the "bulk" of the action and main forcing being done by daybreak or shortly thereafter, while the sfc low crosses srn lower Michigan. We then enter an an increasingly intrusive thermal/moisture advection process that can be more aptly characterized as "drier" and "more stable", with zero synoptic forcing settling in for today and tonight. We will however, have a tighter pressure gradient settling in through the day, with winds turning gusty out of the NW, which will also serve to feed in cooler and less humid air. The gusty winds may continue into a good chunk of this evening, with partly cloudy to mostly clear skies and no significant chance for fog due to wind being strong enough in the BL.

High temperatures will largely be in the middle to upper 70s, with lower 80s in downsloping areas of NE lower. Lows tonight will largely be lower to middle 50s.

SHORT TERM. (Friday through Saturday) Issued at 353 AM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal attm .

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Welcome to the weekend forecast! . Or nearly so . does Friday count? Anywho, similar pattern looks to continue into the weekend, with ridging west, anomalous troughing east . and the Great Lakes under the upper level expressway, as it were, between the two major upper level features. Weak ridging and associated subsidence will be in place Friday with cool, Canadian dry air in the area . but rain/storm chances increase going into late Friday night and Saturday as the next niblet of shortwave energy gets on the expressway to vacation "down south" in Michigan for the weekend.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Low humidity Friday afternoon . rain/storm chances late Friday night into Saturday night .

As mentioned above . mid-level subsidence should be firmly in control of the region Friday . with a slight bit of ridging dropping in from the north. This will leave surface high pressure just to our west . bringing along with it some continental Canadian air . such that it should be cool and dry . both precip-wise, and humidity- wise . noting that model guidance Pwats in the 0.5" range are anomalously dry, running on the dry side of climo for a change. With afternoon dewpoints potentially as low as the 30s under decent mixing, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s in most spots . may have to keep an eye on this for near critical afternoon humidities Friday afternoon for fire weather purposes. It is typically more difficult to get critical humidities this time of year, especially with somewhat recent rain . though this is a pretty dry airmass moving in From a general public standpoint. looks like it could be a cool night again across the south, depending on how quickly upstream cloud cover moves in ahead of the next system. Probably a nice sweater and campfire evening Friday evening . just be sure to fully extinguish the campfire when you're done!! (And enjoy some s'mores!)

As mentioned in last night's discussion . still not convinced that precip will move in terribly quickly Friday night, given antecedent anomalously dry conditions in place over the area from departing Canadian high pressure. Guidance does seem to have slowed up a little from earlier runs . though it does seem to want to key in on precip moving into E. Upper after midnight/2am Friday night into Saturday morning . as better moisture does move into the area along a weak boundary/warm front . with surface flow turning more westerly/southwesterly behind the departing high . and some mid- level WAA taking place. Could be enough instability associated with the system to toss in some rumbles of thunder Friday night . though do not foresee anything even remotely like what is being experienced to our west in Wisconsin attm . as we should be dry/cool enough here in the Great Lakes to minimize much surface based instability, especially during the overnight hours. Might be able to eke out some elevated instability with potential for mid-levels to warm a tad as the shortwave and some minor CAA aloft moves in. We'll see. Better chances for thunder exist Saturday . ahead of the cold front and strengthening vort max dropping in from the north. Do note we are now under a Day 3 marginal risk of severe storms Saturday . mainly for some strong gusty winds . which does make some sense given the cold front coming in . potential for some instability (maybe around 1000j/kg CAPE?) ahead of it . and shear in the 30-35kt range. Something to keep an eye on in the coming days . and something to be sure to remind folks about . as it will be the weekend, and this is Northern Michigan . so people will be out and about in our beautiful Great Outdoors.

Going into Saturday night . will be watching for the vort max to wind up a little more . spinning up a surface low to our east . though there is some uncertainty in where and how deep this vort max gets Saturday night into Sunday morning. That could play a role in perpetuating shower chances in Saturday night/Sunday morning as additional moisture drops into the base of the trough . though do suspect some models may be overdoing the mid-level moisture . as has been the case off and on the last couple weeks.

LONG TERM. (Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 353 AM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal attm .

As mentioned at the end of the short term . will be looking for the short term to start off with that shortwave energy deepening up in the base of the trough . which could lead to lingering/additional shower chances as cold air aloft settles in Sunday. As mentioned above as well, however . there is some uncertainty in exactly where and how deep the shortwave and associated vort max ends up Sunday morning . which will ultimately play a starring role in the persisting shower idea. Going into the remainder of the long term . additional niblets of energy swirling down through the flow may lead to potential precipitation chances . though there is still some uncertainty in timing and positioning of upper level features that will ultimately result in changes in this portion of the forecast in the coming days Despite this. looks like troughing- east, ridging-west idea (both potentially anomalous) will persist into the middle of next week. A bit of a blocky-looking setup, though there may be signals for changes towards the middle of next week and beyond . noting CPC guidance for the 5th to the 11th of August is trending warmer again.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) Issued at 503 AM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

Low pressure will pass to our south through this morning, ending any further rain chances for the TAF period. Increasing sunshine is now expected through the day, while a tighter pressure gradient brings gusty NW winds, primarily for the NW lower airports. As the cooler air arrives, MVFR CIGS are expected for a period this morning, before daytime heating/mixing into increasingly drier air returns conditions back to VFR. Too much wind in the BL for any fog development tonight, and partly cloudy/mostly clear skies are for continued VFR.

MARINE. Issued at 220 AM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

Low pressure will pass to our south through this morning, allowing any light rain/showers to end this morning for most of the region. A tighter pressure gradient settles in through the day, with gusty NW winds and slightly unstable overlake conditions leading to needed advisories most all areas into tonight. Higher pressure and lighter winds work in over the region for Friday and Friday night.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 2 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT Friday for LHZ345-347>349. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from noon today to 4 AM EDT Friday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346. LS . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from noon today to midnight EDT tonight for LSZ321-322.

NEAR TERM . SMD SHORT TERM . FEF LONG TERM . FEF AVIATION . SMD MARINE . SMD


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45183 16 mi59 min SSW 5.8 G 5.8 72°F 71°F
45002 - N MICHIGAN- Halfway between North Manitou and Washington Islands. 27 mi39 min WSW 5.8 G 5.8 69°F 69°F1008.5 hPa
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 33 mi79 min SSW 1.9 G 2.9 69°F 1009.5 hPa
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 49 mi79 min W 2.9 G 4.1 69°F 1009.5 hPa
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 50 mi79 min NW 4.1 G 7 70°F

Wind History for Port Inland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI28 mi64 minN 01.00 miFog/Mist68°F67°F98%1008.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFKS

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmSE3SE4CalmSW4W4W6W5W4CalmE3W3CalmSE3NW3CalmE3CalmW12
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1 day agoCalmW6NW4N3N5N7N7W6NW5N3NW6W5W5NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmW3W5SW3W8W5SW7SW6SW3CalmSW4SW3CalmCalmCalmSW5SW6SW7NW23
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Tide / Current Tables for
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