Thursday, July9, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Glen Arbor, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:15AMSunset 8:36PM Thursday July 9, 2020 7:01 AM CDT (12:01 UTC) Moonrise 11:33PMMoonset 9:38AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ364 Expires:202007091515;;558710 Fzus63 Kmkx 090811 Glflm Open Lake Forecast For Lake Michigan National Weather Service Milwaukee/sullivan Wi 311 Am Cdt Thu Jul 9 2020 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan. Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10% Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered.
Synopsis.. Increasing southerly winds are expected across lake michigan today Thursday as low pressure around 29.5 inches pushes across northern ontario. This will drag a weak cold front across the lake later today with increasing Thunderstorm potential across the lake later this afternoon into Friday morning. Then winds will shift to west/northwest on Friday. && lmz261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868-091515- lake michigan from seul choix point to rock island passage 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan south of a line from seul choix point to the mackinac bridge and north of a line from charlevoix mi to south fox island 5 nm offshore- lake michigan from charlevoix to point betsie mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from point betsie to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from rock island passage to sturgeon bay wi- lake michigan from sturgeon bay to two rivers wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from two rivers to sheboygan wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from pentwater to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 311 am cdt Thu jul 9 2020 sheboygan wi to pentwater mi north...
Today..South winds 10 to 20 kt. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms this afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southwest 5 to 10 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Friday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt increasing to 10 to 20 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Friday night..North winds 10 to 20 kt diminishing to 5 to 10 kt overnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Saturday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt becoming north 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Saturday night..North winds 10 to 20 kt diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sunday..North winds 10 to 15 kt increasing to 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Monday..North winds 10 to 15 kt increasing to 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
LMZ364


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Glen Arbor, MI
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location: 45.02, -86.12     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 091052 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 652 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

UPDATE. Issued at 535 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

For obvious reasons, pops have been drastically boosted and expanded in eastern upper/nw and n central lower MI over the next few hours. Line appears to be getting more raggedy very recently, and still anticipate a considerable weakening trend at any time. But this MCS has faked me out at least twice so far this morning.

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 402 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

. Still hot with better chances for showers/storms .

High impact weather potential: Heat indices mid to upper 90s in many areas. Thunderstorms at times, mainly non-severe.

Low pressure will move eastward across southern Canada, entering far northern Ontario late tonight. An associated cold front will be approaching the area by tomorrow morning. Southerly flow will be developing ahead of the front, seemingly the first time in a while that we've had a legit synoptic wind other than light/variable. That southerly wind also brings in weak warm/moist advection at low levels, as if we weren't warm enough already. At 500mb, flat shortwave ridging is overhead, but that is moving east. Sw mid-level flow develops today and increases tonight, ahead of an upper trof that reaches the mid/upper MS Valley. The above all adds up to precip chances that, while still hit-or-miss, are higher than we've seen in a while.

First off of course, we have a large mature MCS trying to move in right now. An initial, smaller MCS has largely fallen apart as tried to cross central upper MI. The 2nd, much larger and more organized MCS is currently blasting across ne WI. This MCS has been becoming outflow-dominant, with the leading bow echo setting off less intense convective towers with time. But that weakening process is still slower than expected. This MCS is coming to northern MI to die, as most of them do. But clouds and precip chances could well reach more of eastern upper and nw lower MI than I originally planned. Expect some remnant convection to reach at least western and central Mack/Chip Cos in eastern upper MI this morning, and the Lake MI coastal counties of nw lower MI as well. Anything more than that, well, we'll see. This thing will be running out of gas with time, moving in at exactly the wrong time of day.

We will have enough cloud cover moving into eastern upper and nw lower MI to at least slow our warm-up this morning. But that cloud cover should also wipe out fairly quickly, and partly to mostly sunny skies are expected by late morning. That will be relatively brief; we have a somewhat more moist BL, and somewhat cooler temps aloft behind the departing shortwave ridge. So cu development will be faster and more vigorous than we have seen over the last several days. Interior portions of northern lower MI will transition to partly to even mostly cloudy. And deep moist convection should follow, with uncapped MlCape values of 1000- 1250j/kg over northern lower MI this afternoon. We won't have the plethora of lake breeze boundaries to trigger things; low-level winds are too strong for that. But an outflow boundary laid down by the presently upstream MCS is inbound, and that should still be around to help get things started.

Sct to numerous showers/storms are expected in northern lower MI this afternoon, with the Lake MI coastal counties seeing less coverage. Eastern upper MI appears less likely to get precip to fire off there, but convection should initiate to the west, and work into western Chip/Mack Cos as the afternoon proceeds. In northern lower MI, instability is reasonable, but shear remains anemic (0-6km bulk shear 15kt or less). Pulse strong storms are likely, and a stray svr storm (hail/wind threat) is not impossible.

Max temps today will be 0f to 2f warmer that yesterday, ranging from near 90f (eastern upper and far n central lower MI) to the mid 90s (a good swath of ne lower MI). Dew points also tick upward by a degree or so. Heat indices are in the mid to upper 90s across most of northern MI, but don't quite touch 100f. These are the hottest heat indices of the warm spell thus far, and continue to warrant a strong mention in the Haz Wx Outlook and social media outlets. It doesn't quite warrant a heat advisory, but we're close. Came closest to issuing for Arenac and Iosco Cos, in part to line up with DTX, but ultimately our lack of urban areas compared to our downstate neighbors was the decisive factor.

The forecast for tonight is mushy and not of terribly high confidence. Clusters deep convection will develop in WI and western upper MI this afternoon, with and ahead of the surface cold front, and associated with falling heights aloft. These will start to work across Lake MI and into eastern upper MI as soon as very late this afternoon, but mainly this evening into overnight. CAMs are all over the map as to how much success incoming convection will have in getting here, though the RAP is trending in a direction that would bring more convection across Lake MI. Bulk shear remains pretty anemic, so we'll have to see how potent of a cold pool upstream convection can generate. But we could catch storms a smidgen earlier in their life cycle tonight, as opposed to early this morning. A marginal risk of SVR storms just scrapes Manistee/Benzie Cos again, which seems reasonable. In addition, diurnal activity over northern lower/eastern upper MI should be percolating deep into the evening (at least). All told, a rather generic 40-50 pop is going to have to suffice for now for tonight, until we get a better clue as to where convective clusters initiate upstream.

Sticky min temps tonight in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

SHORT TERM. (Friday through Saturday) Issued at 402 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

. Showers and Possible Storms with Abating Heat .

High Impact Weather Potential . Low.

Forecast Concerns . Pops Friday.

The upper level trough takes it's time moving across the region Friday so there is a decent chance for showers and possibly thunderstorms through at least the morning and likely into the afternoon as well (especially across eastern zones). Higher pressure and associated drier air arrives Friday night and should hold into Saturday. This is expected to lead to rain free and slightly cooler but definitely less humid conditions. Temperatures are tricky Friday as abundant clouds and showers would hold them down a bit while less activity would push them higher. For now went with highs for both days in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Lows Friday night in the upper 50s to low 60s.

LONG TERM. (Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 402 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

. More Comfortable Followed by Re-building Heat .

High Impact Weather Potential . Low.

A slow moving upper level trough will bring shower chances (and a slight chance of thunderstorms) to the region Sunday. Extended models then vary on the timing of when this system exits to the east so chances for showers could linger into Monday as well (just slight to low chance pops across northeast zones for now). Definitely cooler than what we have seen here recently during this time with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s. Upper level ridging and warmer temperatures then return Tuesday with an approaching trough leading to more precipitation chances Wednesday. Highs Tuesday in the mid to upper 80s and Wednesday highs warming into the mid 80s to low 90s.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) Issued at 652 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

Shower and thunderstorm threats return this afternoon and tonight.

Line of TSRA inbound across Lake MI has rapidly fallen apart as it moved into nw lower MI this morning. This line should completely fall apart over the next couple of hours. However, it will get plenty hot and humid this afternoon, and additional thunderstorm development is expected. Most of these will be east of mbL/TVC/PLN, with having the best chance of being impacted. Then we wait and see if activity can take a run at us from WI this evening and tonight. Mainly VFR, but brief restrictions are possible in showers and TSRA.

Light southerly winds today.

MARINE. Issued at 402 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

Winds/waves expected to remain below headline criteria through the balance of the week. However, southerly winds will be touch on the breezy side in spots today. There will be periodic thunderstorm chances on the lakes from now all the way through Friday, that will bring special marine warning potential. Be sure to monitor later forecasts/warnings.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . NONE. LM . NONE. LS . NONE.

UPDATE . JZ NEAR TERM . JZ SHORT TERM . AS LONG TERM . AS AVIATION . JZ MARINE . JZ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45183 16 mi32 min SSE 12 G 14 73°F 75°F
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 33 mi22 min S 2.9 G 5.1 88°F 1011.5 hPa
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 49 mi22 min SE 12 G 15 72°F 1011.2 hPa
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 50 mi22 min SSE 15 G 18 72°F 1010.2 hPa

Wind History for Port Inland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI28 mi1.7 hrsNE 64.00 miHeavy Rain73°F66°F78%1012.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFKS

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSW4SW5W5SW4W5W8W6SW6S5W7W4W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE6E4
1 day agoSW4SW5SW5W5SW5SW4SW6W4W4W4W6W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmS4SW6SW6SW7SW7SW6SW7SW7S7W5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW5W4CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.