Marine Weather and Tides
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
|Sunrise 7:19AM||Sunset 4:41PM||Saturday January 16, 2021 3:16 AM CST (09:16 UTC)||Moonrise 10:44AM||Moonset 9:27PM||Illumination 9%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Glen Arbor, MIHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KAPX 160846 AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 346 AM EST Sat Jan 16 2021
NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 346 AM EST Sat Jan 16 2021
. Light snow/minor accumulations through tonight .
High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal. Light snow accumulations may lead to slick spots.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Overnight composite analysis reveals a fairly amplified flow pattern across NOAM with strong ridging along the Pacific coast feeding into a deep stacked/occluded low over the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes region. Elongated surface low is stretched across northern Lower Michigan with an occluded boundary that arcs through the eastern lakes region. Weakening deformation forced precip axis arcs westward through the Great Lakes and back into Wisconsin. Precip is mostly snow across the forecast area at this juncture, although perhaps still a bit mixy in some coastal areas.
Stacked low will migrate into the eastern lakes/New York state region today and into New England tonight . with low level troughing lingering back through the western Great Lakes. Large scale deformation forced precip gradually diminishes through today. But a slow cooling trend through Sunday brings some lake effect snow potential.
Details: As mentioned above, larger scale deformation forced precip weakens through the day . a process already underway per APX radar trends. But some light snow, or mixed rain/snow/drizzle will continue across mainly the northern and western parts of the forecast area today with only minor additional accumulations anticipated.
Meanwhile, increasing northerly flow will slowly wrap colder air into the region later today/tonight and into Sunday. Although not impressive, this will gin up some N/NW lake induced snow showers tonight into Sunday, but again with only minor snow accumulations anticipated.
SHORT TERM. (Sunday through Monday) Issued at 346 AM EST Sat Jan 16 2021
High impact weather potential: Minimal, despite light lake effect snow showers, primarily across north-northwest flow snow belts.
Pattern synopsis/forecast: Our well-advertised area of low pressure that continues to spin nearby early this morning is expected to continue to be positioned well to our east by the start of the forecast period Sunday morning. Broad troughing is expected to be left in its wake across the eastern half of the CONUS through the upcoming weekend with an occasional embedded shortwave rippling through the larger scale flow. While cooler temperatures will certainly be the rule, limited deep moisture/synoptic support, combined with only marginal over-lake instability is expected to be enough to limit overall lake effect snow showers coverage both Sunday and Monday.
Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Lake effect PoPs/snow amounts Sunday through Monday.
Weak cold air advection is expected to largely be in place across northern Michigan Sunday through Monday with H8 temperatures ranging from the -7 to -10 C through this time frame leading to delta Ts around 12-15 C. Given this marginal over-lake instability, weak flow (1000-850 mb winds generally AOB 10 kts), increasingly dry mid-upper levels and inversion heights sub 4 kft, not expecting any high impact lake effect snow across the forecast area. However, that being said, do expected that flakes will continue to fly off and on over this 48 hour stretch - primarily near and west of the GTV Bay region given progged north-northwesterly flow. Perhaps this activity is briefly enhanced late Sunday night/early Monday morning, but again with limited impact given the possible window for enhancement associated with a quick-moving mid-level perturbation looks really small. Accumulations across those far western locales likely to be an inch or less both Sunday and again Monday.
None the less, colder (more normal) temperatures are expected to be the rule, as high temperatures both Sunday and Monday range from the mid 20s to near 30 degrees. Sunday night lows expected to range from the low teens across eastern upper to the upper teens and low 20s much of northern lower (few degrees warmer near and west of GTV Bay region due to lake effect clouds/snow showers).
LONG TERM. (Monday night through Friday) Issued at 346 AM EST Sat Jan 16 2021
High impact weather potential: Possible accumulating lake effect snow during the Tuesday - Wednesday time frame.
Extended guidance remains in somewhat decent agreement that somewhat cooler air aloft with seep into the region during the Tuesday - Wednesday time frame in conjunction with a shortwave that's progged to dive south from Alberta/Manitoba into the northern plains before trekking across the Great Lakes. This period looks like the next potential for at least a shot at some accumulating lake effect snow, but lots of details remain uncertain, especially around duration and intensity of snow, along with wind direction determining that hardest hit locations. Certainly worth monitoring as we head through the weekend as the details and potential impacts become more clear.
AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) Issued at 1145 PM EST Fri Jan 15 2021
Low pressure centered over central Illinois will track eastward thru Indiana and Ohio overnight thru Saturday . reaching New England by late Saturday night. Widespread light snow will continue to impact much of Northern Lower Michigan overnight into Saturday thanks to deep moisture wrapping around the northern side of this strong system. Overall conditions will remain IFR for the next 24 hours. Widespread light snow will slowly diminish to scattered snow showers Saturday afternoon into Saturday night as deep moisture and lift begin to pull away from our area. Light and variable winds overnight will become NW by Saturday afternoon in the wake of the departing low.
MARINE. Issued at 346 AM EST Sat Jan 16 2021
North to northwesterly flow develops and increases later today into tonight and may bring some low end small craft advisory conditions to parts of the Great Lakes. Thus, I may hoist a small craft advisory for a few marine zones . mainly tonight through Sunday morning.
Otherwise, overall quiet weather continues across the Great Lakes, at least by mid January standards.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . NONE. LM . NONE. LS . NONE.
NEAR TERM . BA SHORT TERM . MG LONG TERM . MG AVIATION . MR MARINE . BA
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
|Stations||Dist||Age||Wind||Air Temp||Water Temp||Waves||Pressure||DewPt|
|GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI||33 mi||36 min||E 4.1 G 7||39°F||1001 hPa|
|NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI||49 mi||36 min||NNW 15 G 18||34°F||1002 hPa|
|FPTM4 - Fairport, MI||50 mi||36 min||N 5.1 G 8.9||33°F|
Wind History for Port Inland, MI(wind in knots) EDIT (on/off)  Help
Airport ReportsEDIT (on/off)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
|Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI||28 mi||21 min||N 0||2.50 mi||Light Snow||33°F||31°F||92%||999.7 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KFKS
Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||Calm||SE||SE||E||SE||SE||SE||SE||SE||SE||SE|
|2 days ago||S||S||SW||SW||SW||SW||SW||SW||SW|
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GEOS Local Image of EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop
Other links: Northern Pacific Contential US Full GOES-East
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