Sunday, August25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Glen Arbor, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:04AMSunset 7:41PM Sunday August 25, 2019 5:57 PM CDT (22:57 UTC) Moonrise 12:24AMMoonset 4:03PM Illumination 22% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ364 Expires:201908261200;;201639 Fzus63 Kmkx 252042 Glflm Open Lake Forecast For Lake Michigan National Weather Service Milwaukee/sullivan Wi 342 Pm Cdt Sun Aug 25 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan. Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10% Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered.
Synopsis.. Persistent southeast winds are expected tonight into Monday between departing high pressure of 30.3 centered over the northeast us this morning and an approaching low. This will result in building waves, especially across western portions of lake michigan. Winds will pick up tonight, with gusts to 25 knots possible. Gusty south and then west winds are likely Monday night into Tuesday as the low deepens across southwest ontario and drags an associated cold front through the area. Westerly wind gusts of 25 to 30 knots will be possible Wednesday as the low to the north slowly moves eastward. Lmz261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868-261200- lake michigan from seul choix point to rock island passage 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan south of a line from seul choix point to the mackinac bridge and north of a line from charlevoix mi to south fox island 5 nm offshore- lake michigan from charlevoix to point betsie mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from point betsie to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from rock island passage to sturgeon bay wi- lake michigan from sturgeon bay to two rivers wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from two rivers to sheboygan wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from pentwater to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 342 pm cdt Sun aug 25 2019 sheboygan wi to pentwater mi north...
Tonight..East winds 10 to 20 kt becoming southeast. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Monday..Southeast winds 10 to 20 kt increasing to 15 to 25 kt. Chance of showers in the morning, then chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Monday night..Southeast winds to 30 kt becoming south 15 to 25 kt. Showers likely. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Tuesday..West winds 15 to 25 kt. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft.
Tuesday night..West winds 15 to 25 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Wednesday..West winds to 30 kt. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft building to 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.
Wednesday night..West winds to 30 kt diminishing to 15 to 25 kt. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft.
Thursday..West winds 10 to 20 kt becoming southwest 15 to 25 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Friday..West winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
LMZ364


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Glen Arbor, MI
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location: 45.02, -86.12     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 251920
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
320 pm edt Sun aug 25 2019

Near term (through tonight)
issued at 320 pm edt Sun aug 25 2019

Milder night ahead...

high impact weather potential: none.

Pattern synopsis forecast: afternoon analysis reveals a sharp
short-wave ridge cutting up through the central great lakes region
into quebec. Short-wave troughing follows close behind swinging
through the midwest and just into the western great lakes with a
well defined circulation lifting up through eastern minnesota western
wisconsin.

Stronger southeast return flow is now well established across the
region on the backside of retreating surface high pressure in new
england. Return flow has pulled higher low level dewpoint air
into northern michigan... Responsible for our substantial "heating
of the day" cloud cover across the region. Upstream, thicker band
of mid and high cloud cover along and ahead of the trough is
making inroads into the western great lakes, some of which is
already pressing into northern lower michigan.

Primary forecast concerns: minimal through tonight.

We lose our "heating of the day" cloud cover fairly quickly this
evening with many areas becoming partly cloudy or even clear for a
bit. But, mid and high cloud cover will be on the increase
especially overnight into Monday morning, in advance of the
aforementioned short-wave trough that swings through on Monday.

With higher dewpoints, some cloud cover and increased low level
flow, temperatures will run much milder as compared to the last
few night.

Short term (Monday through Wednesday)
issued at 320 pm edt Sun aug 25 2019

A better chance for rain on Monday night Tuesday...

high impact weather potential... Thunder possible Monday evening.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Looks like the speed of the warm
front rain has slowed a bit as the GFS is now about the speed of the
ecmwf. The nam12 and rap13 are all in agreement that the rain is
after 18z Mon as well. The hiresw products are also in agreement.

However, it doesn't look like the rain is likely, until the warm
front moves through and N lower is briefly in the warm sector (after
06z tue). That's when the models show the upper destabilization
occurs (mainly the showalter index which GOES sub 0c). The cold
front is moving into lake michigan and c upper around 12z tue. This
will bring a line of thunderstorms, and then should be out of the
forecast area between 21z Tue and 00z wed. It is possible that there
will be some showers between 00z Wed and 09z wed, but the as the 500
mb low dips into N lake superior, and the 850 mb temperatures fall
to around +6c rain showers become likely again. As the 500 mb low
passes the upper great lakes by 12z thu, rain showers are possible
through the day on Wednesday.

Primary forecast concerns... Looks like we should have rain, and fair
bit. However, the way this summer has gone will believe it when it
gets here. Thunder is also possible, but the jet dynamics arrive
post frontal. However, there will be some good shear in the warm
sector, so something could get strong, but at this point, it looks
like it wouldn't get severe.

Long term (Wednesday night through Sunday)
issued at 320 pm edt Sun aug 25 2019
high impact weather potential... Rain impacting the dryness.

Extended (Wednesday evening through Sunday)... Wednesday evening, the
rain showers are still possible as the 850 mb temperatures continue
to remain sub +7c through 12z Thu with the 500 mb low moving to the
east. Thursday starts out with high pressure, then begins to cloud
up as another 500 mb shortwave moves through the upper great lakes
with a warm front and brings another small chance for rain showers,
that expands Thursday night as the cold front moves through the
area. Friday may be dry as the ECMWF begins to stretch the cold
front out over the region and impulses travel up the front. The gfs
remains dry as it pushes the cold front south of the state. In fact,
the GFS has Saturday dry as well. The ECMWF doesn't dry out the
region until Saturday. Sunday is a toss up, as the rain looks to go
north and south of the forecast area on the gfs, while the ecmwf
continue to keep things dry through Monday morning.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Monday afternoon)
issued at 206 pm edt Sun aug 25 2019
southeast flow has increased across northern michigan along the
backside of retreating high pressure. This has pulled increased
moisture into the region and produced a somewhat robust sct-bkn
cu field across the region... Which will persist through the
balance of the afternoon. CIGS are and will remainVFR through the
afternoon. In addition, some gustiness has developed with gusts
into the teens at some terminal sites.

Cloud cover will thin out this evening. But mid and high cloud
cover will be on the increase later tonight through Monday midday
in advance of a rather strong late summer system that will pass
through the region later Monday into Tuesday. Southeast winds
weaken tonight but will increase again on Monday.

Marine
Issued at 320 pm edt Sun aug 25 2019
southeast winds are gustier out there today. However, most marine
sites obs remain below small craft advisory levels. So, I may
cancel the current headlines with the afternoon forecast issuance.

However, gusty winds return for Monday afternoon onward through
midweek when small craft headlines will most likely be needed.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Monday for lhz345>347.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Monday for lmz341-342.

Ls... Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Monday for lsz321.

Near term... Ba
short term... Jl
long term... Jl
aviation... Ba
marine... Ba


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45183 16 mi57 min SSE 9.7 G 12 74°F 66°F1019.8 hPa
45002 - N MICHIGAN- Halfway between North Manitou and Washington Islands. 27 mi37 min ENE 12 G 14 69°F 70°F1019 hPa59°F
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 33 mi77 min NE 12 G 13 69°F 1019.6 hPa
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 49 mi77 min E 2.9 G 4.1 69°F 1019.3 hPa
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 50 mi57 min E 6 G 9.9 70°F 1019.3 hPa (-2.0)

Wind History for Port Inland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI28 mi1.7 hrsNW 610.00 miPartly Cloudy77°F55°F48%1019.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFKS

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3N3NE3----Calm----CalmSE4--CalmCalmSE3SE7SE5SE6SE9S7SE8
G15
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1 day agoN3N3Calm--------CalmCalmCalm--CalmCalmCalmCalmE4CalmCalmW6W10N7NW9N7N6
2 days agoN4N3CalmCalm--Calm--CalmCalm--CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3NE4N6N7N9N9N6N6
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.