Saturday, August15, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Baileys Harbor, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:54AMSunset 7:58PM Saturday August 15, 2020 2:37 AM CDT (07:37 UTC) Moonrise 1:44AMMoonset 5:51PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ541 Expires:202008151015;;467767 Fzus53 Kgrb 150216 Nshgrb Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay Wi 916 Pm Cdt Fri Aug 14 2020 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan Lmz521-522-541>543-151015- Green Bay South Of Line From Cedar River To Rock Island Passage And North Of A Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Green Bay South Of Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi-two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi- 916 Pm Cdt Fri Aug 14 2020
Rest of tonight..S wind 5 to 10 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. Mostly clear.
Saturday..SW wind 5 to 10 kts veering ne 10 to 15 kts early in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..NE wind 5 to 10 kts backing W after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less. Mostly clear.
Sunday..W wind 5 to 10 kts veering nw early in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less. Mostly Sunny.
LMZ541


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Baileys Harbor, WI
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location: 45.07, -87.14     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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FXUS63 KGRB 150328 AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1028 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

SHORT TERM. Tonight and Saturday Issued at 257 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show low pressure over the eastern Dakotas and a cold front extending from the low southwest across the central Plains. Strong to severe convection continues ahead of the low over northern Minnesota, though has been weakening over the past few hours. A much more stable airmass prevails across the eastern half of Wisconsin, as evident by little in the way of cu formation. As the front slides across the region tonight, forecast concerns mainly revolve around thunderstorm potential.

Tonight . The cold front will continue to march east and move into central and north-central WI after midnight. Widespread thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front this afternoon before they push into western Wisconsin this evening. With diminishing instability and upper level forcing lifting off to the northeast, the short range models continue to show convection diminishing as it approaches north-central to central WI shortly after midnight. Still though, most unstable capes up to 1000 j/kg could lead to an isolated strong storm persisting into north-central WI. Probably the most significant threat would be heavy rainfall. Convection should continue to diminish along the front into northeast WI by 12z. A widespread low overcast deck will likely move into the area behind the front. Even though winds will shift to the northwest, the clouds should keep temps mild. Lows ranging from the upper 50s to middle 60s.

Saturday . The front will continue to move east over northeast Wisconsin in the morning before exiting by midday or early afternoon. Some guidance indicates that a few strong cells could develop late in the morning along the lakeshore areas before the front departs. Not sure if there will be enough time to destabilize in the morning, especially since cloud cover should be plentiful. Will show a slight uptick in precip chances, but the unfavorable timing will keep any severe threat as very low. With partial clearing in the afternoon, temps to warm into the middle 70s to near 80, which is about 5 degrees cooler than today.

LONG TERM. Saturday Night Through Friday Issued at 257 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

Looks like a seasonable weather pattern setting up for next week with a western ridge and eastern trough producing a northwest upper flow across the Great Lakes. This should result in pleasant summer weather with a few days slightly cooler than normal and a couple days a little above normal by the end of next week.

There could be a shower or thunderstorm during the middle of the week as a shortwave moves through the upper flow. The models forecast the upper flow to flatten out towards the end of the work week, with a chance of showers or thunderstorms ahead of another cold front.

AVIATION. for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1025 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

A cold front continues to slowly approach from the west. The front will bring an increase and lowering of the clouds as is pushes into the area. Some convection will accompany the front into the area overnight, but it will be weakening. The likelihood of thunder occurring at the western TAF sites has increased, and timing is now clearer, so will include a TEMPO group for the thunder there. It looks less likely in the east, so will continue with just SHRA in the eastern TAF sites with the 06Z issuance.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NONE.

SHORT TERM . MPC LONG TERM . RDM AVIATION . Skowronski


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CBRW3 - Chambers Island, WI 15 mi58 min ESE 2.9 G 5.1 70°F
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 18 mi58 min SE 4.1 G 6 70°F 1013.5 hPa
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 24 mi50 min S 8.9 G 11 74°F 73°F1013.5 hPa67°F
45014 38 mi38 min S 12 G 14 73°F 1012.6 hPa (-0.5)
45002 - N MICHIGAN- Halfway between North Manitou and Washington Islands. 43 mi38 min S 7.8 G 9.7 72°F 1014 hPa (+0.0)71°F
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 46 mi58 min S 9.9 G 11 72°F 1013.9 hPa
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI 46 mi50 min Calm G 1 69°F 1014 hPa

Wind History for Menominee, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Door County Cherryland Airport, WI20 mi42 minS 710.00 miFair69°F66°F90%1013.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSUE

Wind History from SUE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4CalmNE5E8SE8E6SE5--SE8SE5E4E5SE3SW3SE4S4S7
1 day agoCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmN3NE6E5663554E6SE6E6E5E5E3CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoW4W4SW3W4W3W5NW43CalmSE43S5SW5S63S4SE4SE3S4S5S3S5CalmSE3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.