Tuesday, December10, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Baileys Harbor, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 4:13PM Tuesday December 10, 2019 7:09 AM CST (13:09 UTC) Moonrise 4:22PMMoonset 6:22AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ541 Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi-two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi- 601 Am Cst Tue Dec 10 2019
Today..W wind 10 to 20 kts. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Scattered flurries in the morning.
Tonight..W wind increasing to 15 to 25 kts. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Partly cloudy. A small craft advisory may be needed late tonight into Wednesday.
Wednesday..W wind 15 to 25 kts. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Partly cloudy in the morning then clearing.
Wednesday night..W wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy.
LMZ541 Expires:201912101715;;138118 FZUS53 KGRB 101201 NSHGRB Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay WI 601 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ541>543-101715-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Baileys Harbor, WI
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location: 45.07, -87.14     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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FXUS63 KGRB 101159 AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 559 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2019

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

SHORT TERM. Today . Tonight . and Wednesday Issued at 355 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2019

Cyclonic northwest flow and lingering low-level moisture was producing widespread low clouds and flurries across the forecast area early this morning. Lake-effect snow showers were occurring in the far north, but had tapered off a bit over the past couple hours. Arctic air was pouring into the area, with temperatures ranging from the single digits northwest to the teens southeast.

Lake-effect snow showers will gradually taper off to flurries as low-level winds turn westerly this morning. Flurries should taper off over the rest of the forecast area from west to east early this morning, but another batch of clouds and flurries may affect parts of central and north central WI during the late morning and early afternoon. Highs today will be around 25 degrees colder than yesterday, ranging from the single digits northwest to the teens near Lake Michigan.

The combination of very cold temperatures and west winds around 10 mph will result in bitterly cold wind chill temperatures tonight into Wednesday morning. Wind chills will drop to 15 below to 20 below zero in the Fox Valley and lakeshore/bayshore areas, and 20 below to 30 below zero over north central and parts of central and far northeast WI. A Wind Chill Advisory has been posted for the northwest half of the forecast area from 9 pm tonight through noon Wednesday. Lows tonight should range from a few degrees above zero near the lakeshore to 10 below to 15 below zero northwest. Highs on Wednesday will not get out of the single digits above zero in most locations.

LONG TERM. Wednesday Night Through Monday Issued at 355 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2019

The main concerns for this forecast period are the chances for accumulating snow on Thursday and again Friday night through Saturday.

Wednesday night through Thursday . A surface high pressure system will exit the region Wednesday evening keeping mostly clear skies to start. Clouds will then be on the increase ahead of an approaching upper-level shortwave trough, digging over the central Plains, putting Wisconsin under the RRQ. This upper-level support in concert with a northwest moving surface low pressure system, originating from southeastern Colorado, and decent WAA will bring chances for accumulating snow across northern Wisconsin. Model guidance appears to be in decent agreement with the highest total snowfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches north of a line from Wautoma to Manitowoc from early Thursday morning to Thursday evening. Forecast soundings indicate the potential for the loss of ice crystals as the system shifts to the east Thursday evening, leaving behind the potential for freezing drizzle, however confidence is too low to mention in forecast.

Rest of the extended . As the upper-level shortwave trough reaches the Upper Mississippi Valley late Thursday night, the upper-level pattern will transition to a mean zonal flow. However, this pattern will not last long as the next shortwave trough moves into the northern Plains by Friday morning. Model guidance shows a surface low pressure system moving from North Dakota to Iowa and northern Illinois by Saturday morning. This could bring the next chance for accumulating snow up to 2 inches across the region. Kept a blend of model guidance for now with this system. By Sunday, a surface high pressure system will push into the region, bringing quieter conditions with below normal temperatures.

AVIATION. for 12Z TAF Issuance Issued at 546 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2019

Sky cover varied considerably across the forecast area this morning, with patches of MVFR and VFR ceilings, and large areas of clearing. Scattered flurries were observed in eastern WI, and scattered lake effect snow showers were still ongoing over Vilas County.

MVFR ceilings were slowly approaching the western TAF sites early this morning, so have added TEMPO groups for MVFR ceilings there for a few hours this morning. Otherwise, expect lake effect snow showers to taper off up north, and more widespread clearing to occur later in the afternoon and early evening.

Gusty west winds can be expected through the TAF period, and some spotty LLWS is possible late tonight, especially in northeast WI.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Wind Chill Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST Wednesday for WIZ005-010>013-018>021-030-031-035-036.

SHORT TERM . Kieckbusch LONG TERM . Hykin AVIATION . Kieckbusch


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CBRW3 - Chambers Island, WI 15 mi40 min W 9.9 G 18 15°F
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 24 mi58 min WNW 8 G 11 14°F 36°F1014.2 hPa4°F
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 46 mi48 min NW 16 15°F 1012.5 hPa
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI 46 mi52 min WNW 8.9 G 16 17°F 1013.6 hPa

Wind History for Menominee, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Door County Cherryland Airport, WI20 mi14 minNW 16 G 2210.00 miA Few Clouds14°F5°F67%1015.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSUE

Wind History from SUE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN7N8N6N6N7N7N7N11N12N14N19
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N15NW19
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------NW14
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NW14--NW14NW11NW14
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1 day agoS12S12SW11SW11SW10SW10SW8W5W3CalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmNE6NE5NE6NE4NE7NE6NE8NE4N4
2 days ago--S3S6S6S7S7S7S9S7S8S12S12
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S14S11S14SW16
G24

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.