Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Baileys Harbor, WI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

This morning...

Stratiform rain will come to an end from west to east early this morning as a LLJ shifts east. Dry conditions will then prevail through the rest of the morning. Behind the rain areas of fog are expected to develop across much of the region with the lowest visibilities, under 1/2 mile, across northern WI.

Severe storm potential late this afternoon/evening...

Last nights MCS has layed-out out an outflow boundary along the WI/IL border early this morning. Persistent southwest flow south of the boundary will help lift this boundary north as an effect warm front through the morning and afternoon. CAMs generally show the boundary stalling along HWY 21 this afternoon with SBCAPES increasing to ~2000 J/kg south of boundary. This will provide the focus for convective initiation this afternoon, around 3-5PM. With cloud layer winds out of the southwest storms will cross over to the cool side of the boundary as they move into Fox Vally and east-central WI.
This along with straight and elongated hodographs will lead to a large hail (1-2") threat. A damaging wind threat (gusts up to 60 mph) will also be possible this evening if storms grow upscale.
Tornado threat will primarily be focused across southern WI where low-level lapse rates will be steeper beneath an eroding EML, however, any storms that can latch onto the boundary and take advantage of the increased low-leve shear may pose a tornado threat, greatest chance would be south of HWY 10. The greatest uncertainty with the severe threat is the positions of the effective warm front, as a shift further north or south would change the areas of focus for severe storms. Convection will also result in localized heavy rainfall. HRRR probs show pockets of 50-70% chances for over 1" of rain across the central and east-central WI. With on-going flooding and saturated soils this will exacerbate both aerial and river flooding concerns.

Rain and thunderstorms Wednesday-Monday...

A surface low is forecast to lift into the western Great Lakes Wednesday bringing another round of rain and possible thunderstorms.
There is uncertainty with how much instability will be able to recover from Tuesday evenings convection. Latest CAMs and ML/AI guidance shunts most of the instability south of the CWA This would limit the severe threat, however, there is a 25-30% chance for another .5" of rain which would cause any ongoing flood concerns to continue.

A more dynamic trough is slated to impact the region late Friday into the weekend bringing additional widespread rainfall and storms.
The northward extent of greater instability is somewhat uncertain with this system, impacting severe weather potential, but this will be something to watch in the coming days. Drier and cooler weather is expected behind this system for early next week.

AVIATION
for 12Z TAF Issuance Issued at 613 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

A blanket of LIFR status has developed across much of the region along with areas of fog creating locally reduced visibility under 1SM. Cigs should gradually rise this morning with most terminals becoming MVFR by early afternoon. Next round of rain and thunderstorms will lift into central and east-central WI late this afternoon (after 4PM). The best chance scattered severe storms will be south of an ISW to GRB to SUE line with large hail and damaging wind gusts the main hazards. Once storms depart (after 11PM) another round of fog and low clouds is expected into Wednesday morning.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

MRMS QPE from the last 24-hours shows a maximum of 4.5-5.5 inches of rainfall along an axis from Stevens Point to Bonduel with a more broad swath of 1-3" south of HWY 8. The result has been rapidly rising rivers and streams along with on-going flash flooding. An additional 0.5-1" of rain is expected across this area today which will only exacerbate flooding concerns. Runoff from snow melt in Upper Michigan is also still expected to bring moderate to possibly major flooding on the Menominee River, especially during the mid to late part of the week. If you live near a river or stream, keep a close eye on water levels this week and monitor the latest Flood Warnings from the National Weather Service in Green Bay.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for WIZ022-035>040-045- 048>050.