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FXUS63 KGRB 092357 AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 557 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance


KEY MESSAGES
- Slippery stretches on area roads will likely develop tonight into Sunday morning due to periods of light snow. Snow accumulations will range from a dusting to 2 inches for most locations. Locally higher totals are possible across the snow belt of north-central Wisconsin.

- Temperatures will trend more seasonal to start the work week with a warm up expected for Thursday and Friday. Not much in the way of precipitation chances for the upcoming work week.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 149 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

SHORT TERM...Tonight and Sunday

Northeast Wisconsin is currently in a lull for precipitation as the second punch of this low pressure system, shown as a potent mid level PV anomaly on water vapor satellite imagery, is currently making its way into western Wisconsin. This shortwave will be coincident with a surface cold front and area of precipitation, which will sweep through late this afternoon and into the evening hours. The precipitation may start out as a mix of rain and snow, then transition over to all snow as a push of cold air accompanies the precipitation. The snow is expected to end from west to east overnight into early Sunday morning, with some snow lingering across north-central Wisconsin well into Sunday morning with lake effect from Lake Superior. Snowfall amounts are generally expected to be 1 to 2 inches across north- central Wisconsin, with up to 3 inches possible in the Lake Superior snowbelt region of Vilas County. An inch or less of snow is expected across the rest of the area, as upstream mosaic radar imagery shows the precipitation is fairly broken once you get south of northwest Wisconsin. Lows tonight are expected to mainly be in the 20s.

Outside of the lake effect snow showers ending across north- central Wisconsin Sunday morning, dry conditions are expected across the region on Sunday as a ridge of high pressure builds in across the upper Mississippi Valley. Some sunshine may break out Sunday afternoon, especially across central and east-central Wisconsin. Despite the sunshine, temperatures will be cooler on Sunday with cool northwest surface winds. Highs on Sunday are expected to range from the upper 20s across the north, to the lower to middle 30s across east-central and northeast Wisconsin.

LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Saturday

Not much in the way of impactful weather through the extended period. Temperatures are forecast to trend more seasonal to begin the work week with another warm up coming during the back-half of the week. High temperatures in the upper 30s to mid 40s are currently forecast next Thursday and Friday.

Weak ridging and surface high pressure extending from the south should keep the area dry to begin the work week. Kept the area dry Tuesday morning as precipitation associated with a clipper system progged to move across southern Ontario Monday night and Tuesday looks to stay north of Wisconsin. However, if this system were to move further south areas in far northeast WI and northern Door County could wake up to a dusting of snow Tuesday morning.
Dry and breeze conditions are expected for the middle part of next week as the area sits between a high pressure system centered over the Ohio River Valley and a low moving across northern Canada. The strongest gusts of 25-30 mph are expected, mainly during Tuesday afternoon and evening. Steady SW 10-15 mph winds Thursday and Friday will bring another warm up late next week with high temperatues in the upper 30s to mid 40s expected each day, which is about 10-15 degrees warmer than normal for mid December.
There is the potential for a cold front to sweep across the area Friday afternoon into Saturday which could bring temperatures closer to normal for next weekend. The frontal passage will also bring a chance for some rain/snow to begin next weekend, however, it is too far out to get into much detail with the precipitation chances for next weekend.

AVIATION
for 00Z TAF Issuance Issued at 556 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

A low pressure system will spread light snow across the region through late tonight. Visibilities in light snow will occasionally fall into the IFR category especially at RHI, AUW and CWA TAF sites through about 06Z, before becoming more scattered and showery in nature thereafter. The most likely areas to see snowfall accumulations up to an inch or two will be over central and northcentral Wisconsin. Locations generally east of the I41 corridor can expect amounts generally less than an inch overnight. Light snow and flurries should come to an end from west to east by 12Z Sunday with ceiling improving to the MVFR and VFR by midday.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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