Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Northport, MI

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 211 AM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Little shake and bake in the atmosphere on Monday as one short wave sling shots in front of the main trough across Manitoba/Ontario.
Cannot rule out a few light snow showers as a result that skim northern portions of the eastern UP during the first half of Monday.
Thereafter, warm advection begins to increase as a jet streak aloft impinges from the west. This will result in the potential for light snow during the afternoon across northern portions of the region, generally Tip of the Mitt and northward. Warm advection continues into the overnight in response to the approaching main wave, along with differential pos vort advection. Best combination of lift will be roughly from the Tip of the Mitt and northward Monday night into early Tuesday, resulting in the most persistent and steadiest precipitation. Snow, or mostly snow, is expected farther to the north (Straits into E UP) and a wintry mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain across northern lower Michigan. This will be a quick burst of precipitation for most Monday night into early Tuesday with implications for the morning commute on Tuesday.

Trough continues to dig southeast across the Great Lakes region through Tuesday along with sfc low pressure system across Ontario.
Consequently, cold advection it expected through the day on Tuesday.
Any lingering steadier snow during the morning hours will transition to lake effect/induced, generally on the lighter side.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Wintry Impacts:

Snow will be one of two main concerns Monday night into Tuesday, freezing rain being the other. Snow potential will focus where the deeper lift resides, which will be across the Tip of the Mitt but especially eastern upper Michigan. Most guidance shows a quick 2-4/3-5" of snow with ratios likely close to 10:1-11:1, slicker than normal, which will impact the Tuesday morning commute. HRRR probs suggest a medium to high potential (~50-80%)
for 3" of snow across the E UP, lower south of the Straits.
Little bit of a question in regards to how much snow falls from the Tip of the Mitt out towards Alpena, but could see a few inches there, where the lower probs (10-40%) for 3" of snow reside. Across the rest of northern lower, lighter precipitation is expected with warm nose nosing in aloft. Thus, a mix of freezing rain, sleet, and some snow is expected. Most likely scenario at this time looks to be a glaze for most across northern lower, which is enough for concerns. There are some uncertainties in regards to the location and spatial extent of the freezing rain potential, although conceptually at least some freezing rain makes sense. Will issue a winter weather advisory tonight for the E UP, which has the best potential for accumulating snow based on the synoptic lift coupled with most consistent model guidance signals for higher precipitation.
Farther south may very well need an advisory for wintry mix as well, largely for freezing rain accums of a glaze, but will ultimately leave this portion to the next shift.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 211 AM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

Light lake effect snow showers will linger into mid week within a modestly unstable/cold environment. Not expecting a big concern with this activity, although breezy conditions are expected. Temps do cool back into the mid 20s for highs behind the upper trough and within the cool northwest flow aloft.

Quiet conditions anticipated late week and into at least the first half of the weekend with high temps in the 20s and 30s. Attention turns to a quick moving zonal trough and subsequent low pressure system gliding across the southern half of the CONUS. Some of the ENS guidance shows this feature remaining to the south across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic due to the increasing upper height anomalies across the Great Lakes - southeast Canada. Of course, the orientation of the upper heights and areas of weakness, assuming any develops, will be one of a few factors that ultimately determine how far north this piece of energy/low pressure system can meridionally lift.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 1241 PM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

Conditions will trend downward towards MVFR to IFR for more northern sites, especially CIU with a slower trend towards MVFR across more southern terminals. Snow spreading across eastern Upper will continue through the period and expand southward towards PLN with time. Accumulations of 3-5" will be possible at CIU with a couple inches expected at PLN. Drops to IFR CIGs and VSBYs are also expected at CIU tonight through the end of the issuance period
Low confidence, but worth mentioning
some icing will be possible across northern Lower terminals accumulating to a light glaze, mainly TVC and APN. South winds around 10 kts with gusts to 15-20 kts are expected for most areas into this evening before winds begin to shift northwest/west behind a passing front ~12Z Tuesday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ086>088-095-096.
MARINE...None.